NCAA Tournament 2025

[Ron Boerger]

The Trinity loss to CNU was also less than 24 hours after they played HSU at HSU.

Regarding those third-round losses, fair point, but let's look at the travel involved:

2024:  2,032 miles to Babson (L)
2018:  1,199 miles to UChicago (L)
2016:  2,046 miles to Tufts (L)
2015:  1,993 miles to Amherst (W, L)
2014:  1,189 miles to Wheaton (W, L)
2013:  1,159 miles to Loras (W, L)
 
In addition to the travel these games frequently involve weather conditions virtually impossible to prepare for in South Texas.  The combination makes an already difficult task even harder.

Edit:  those ar driving miles; of course the teams flew but there aren't many direct connections from San Antonio.

[Kuiper]

The Trinity loss to CNU was also less than 24 hours after they played HSU at HSU.

Regarding those third-round losses, fair point, but let's look at the travel involved:

2024:  2,032 miles to Babson (L)
2018:  1,199 miles to UChicago (L)
2016:  2,046 miles to Tufts (L)
2015:  1,993 miles to Amherst (W, L)
2014:  1,189 miles to Wheaton (W, L)
2013:  1,159 miles to Loras (W, L)
 
In addition to the travel these games frequently involve weather conditions virtually impossible to prepare for in South Texas.  The combination makes an already difficult task even harder.

Edit:  those ar driving miles; of course the teams flew but there aren't many direct connections from San Antonio.

Totally agree, but that's the scenario that is usually at play when a Region X school advances out of their pod.  They get sent to somewhere very far away and/or cold or both.  So, it's not that Trinity is particularly bad at playing those 3rd round games away (Oxy lost @ Amherst in 2023, albeit in a very close game, and St. Thomas lost @ Chicago in 2022 in frigid weather), but it's not like Trinity has fared much better either.

[Ron Boerger]

Would not disagree (especially over the last decade).  It's difficult for any Region 10 team once they get out of the confines of home.

[Kuiper]

Going back to the subject of Chicago/Wash U potentially meeting in the third round, I wouldn't rule out DePauw upsetting Chicago. DePauw is #39 in the NPI and wouldn't have qualified for the tournament if it didn't win the NCAC AQ, but it's coming into the tournament on a 10 game unbeaten streak, during which it beat Denison twice, including in the NCAC championship, and it beat a Kenyon team in the NCAC semifinals that was coming off consecutive 4-0 victories over Wooster and Ohio Wesleyan.  Both of DePauw's losses - to Colorado College (8/29) and Calvin (9/27) - were in the first half of the season. 

[Mr_November]

Random question for this thread...who are the biggest programs missing out on the NCAAs this year? Or even programs who had a great season but are still missing out?

[VASoccerDad]

Random question for this thread...who are the biggest programs missing out on the NCAAs this year? Or even programs who had a great season but are still missing out?

A couple of traditional teams that I've noticed missing were Johns Hopkins and Kenyon, among others.

[mngopher]

Some analysis and commentary with focus moreso on the Northeast, South and New England teams:

Midwest teams certainly have some tough 2nd round matchups. The left-half of the bracket with 5 NESCAC teams (n addition to the tough Midwest matchups) also looks challenging. Top-left quadrant with Tufts-Conn-Bowdoin means only one of those 3 teams will make it to the Final 4. Augsburg (#2) and Lynchburg (#4), conversely, seem to have the easiest road to the Final 4. I would also say #5 Emory and #13 Wesleyan have fairly easy paths to Final-4 as well.

St Olaf could face Williams in the 3rd round who I'd say are not playing great in the latter-half of the season. Williams had a big win early September at Tufts (basically their only good W of the year) but they've done nothing since a 1-0 win at Bates over a month ago. They've lost to Wesleyan, Conn, Middlebury, and Conn in the last 4 weeks with 1 GF. It's a long way of saying Williams could be the easiest opponent in the 3rd round but at the same time it's a school with strong pedigree and plenty of experience facing top teams.

Macalaster-Middlebury is another potential 3rd round match with Middlebury being another school with incredible history that has found their stride in the last 3 weeks. Minimal goals (GF) til late October but they're 4-1-0 in their last five games defeating Vassar, Bates, Williams, Bowdoin and losing in OT to Tufts with a combined 13 GF in those last 5 games with at least 2 GF in every contest. Their defense has been excellent all season with only 3 multi-GA games this year (Tufts, Vassar, and Tufts each with 2 GA). Also of note regarding Middlebury is their aptitude for earning cards: leading the NESCAC with 37 YC + 2 RC in 16 regular-season games plus another 5 YC vs Bowdoin in the playoffs and 5 more YC vs Tufts in the playoffs!!

Tufts' 2nd round would be at #26 Brandeis (granted it's only a 20 minute drive but still) who has played 8 games amongst top-80 teams with a 3-2-2 record: W @ Bridgewater, W @ Wesleyan, W @ Babson, Tie vs Wheaton, Tie vs Emory, Loss [2-3] at Chicago, and one blowout loss [0-4] at WashU. Brandeis has 5 games against Top-21 teams in which they're 1-2-2 which means they're no stranger to very good competition and they have some offense which in single-elimination goes a long way: 13 GF and 14GA in their 7 games against top-80 opponents and 8 GF - 12 GA in 5 games against top-21 teams. Tufts has solid offense and defense with only 2 multi-GA games this year (1-3 loss to Williams which was not nearly as bad a beating as the score implies, and the Tufts 3-2 comeback win vs Middlebury last weekend. Some have commented that Tufts have scored a lot of PKs this year (10 or perhaps 11 goals on 11 or 12 attempts) but most of them, I believe, have been in non-NESCAC games.

Hobart (potential 3rd round opponent for Tufts) is undefeated at 13-0-5 however most of their opponents are outside the top-100 NPI (probably 75% of Hobart's opponents are lower-ranked NPI then 80+% of Tufts opponents this year). I can't comment much on Hobart. Hobart might be an easier 3rd round for Tufts (if they get there) than their 2nd rounch match at Brandeis.

Conn-Bowdoin in the 3rd round would be tough. Conn is 8-1-2 in their 11 games since a loss vs Tufts on 9/21 (with the single loss being... Tufts [again] in the NESCAC final game on 11/9. I think any non-biased observer would say Conn is a very strong team and they've been playing very well for the last 2 months straight. Bowdoin is also playing quite well and fairly consistent in the last 5+ weeks. Since the Bowdoin 9/28 loss at Hamilton (top ~50 NPI) they've gone 6-1-2 including regular season wins over Middlebury, Wesleyan and Amherst, coupled with ties at Williams and vs Tufts, and one loss to Middlebury in the NESCAC quarterfinal. Bowdoin has the NESCAC player of the year in Senior midfield Tyler Huck (2022 rookie of year, 2023 and 2024 NESCAC 1st team) who lead the NESCAC in goals and assist for 27 points total.

I'm not as familiar with the right-half of the bracket but as I said, I think Augsburg and Lynchburg have the 2 easiest paths to the final-4. Augsburg vs Amherst as a potential 3rd round match: Amherst is nothing like what they've been in recent years. Their "scoring margin" is 3rd-worst in NESCAC (9th of 11 teams) and they are 4-5-0 in their last 9 games dating back to late September. They have an abnormally tall team (which I think is common for Amherst) and they commit a lot of fouls (tied with Middlebury at 37 YC for the regular season).

Wesleyan (lower-right quadrant) has been consistent all year. They suffered non-conference early season losses at Babson [0-1] and vs Brandeis [1-2] but Babson is NPI #63 and Brandeis is NPI #26 so they're not terrible losses. Ever since their 9/16 loss to Brandeis they are 7-2-3 with the 2 losses being vs #9 NPI Bowdoin [0-1] and #7 NPI Conn [1-2]. In that stretch they also defeated Middlebury, Amherst, Williams and Amherst and had ties at Tufts [1-1] and vs Conn [1-1]. Aside from scoring 5 goals in their 2 matches hosting Amherst, Wesleyan does not have the offensive firepower of the top-ranked NESCAC teams. They seem to eke-out a lot of low-scoring wins and ties and they only had 1 good opponent (not named Amherst) with 2 goals whereas all their other tough matchups have been 0 or 1 single goal for Wesleyan. That said, I think the Wesleyan's lower-right quadrant is the easiest of all 4 quadrants and Wesleyan's right-half bracket is easier than the left half, so Wesleyan could have the best opportunity of any NESCAC school to reach the final 4.

Emory being ranked #5 is comical to me. They're 1-1-2 vs top-30 NPI teams (only win was in August vs #29 Wash&Lee). After the W&L win, their next best win was at #46 Univ of Rochester. No way is Emory equivalent to #2 in the NESCAC! I would say Emory is behind Tufts, Conn, Bowdoin, Wesleyan, and Midd and they may not even be as good as Williams or Amherst. I imagine the Midwest also has several teams that are better than Emory. Emory appears to lack offense with only 5 GF in their 6 matches against top-50 NPI teams (2-1-3). Emory tied Brandeis 1-1 (Brandeis NPI #26 who Tufts would potentially face in the 2nd round).

Additionally, Lynchburg at #4 is overrated. They have not faced any top-20 NPI teams this year! They only lost 1 game all season but it was their toughest opponent #23 Hampden-Sydney [0-2]. Their best 2 wins were both against #29 Washington & Lee (late regular season away game 2-0 win; ODAC championships hosting W&L 2-1 win). Again using #26 Brandeis as a barometer, it's hard to say that Lynchburg is much better (if at all) since Brandeis actually has a win and 2 ties against top-21 teams (plus 2 losses).

Between Chicago and WashU, if one of them survives the 2nd round I would like either of them over Trinity in the 3rd round. Trinity at 15-1-1 on the season lost (as home team) to their only tough opponent #19 Christopher Newport [2-3] and tied # 73 Berry 1-1 with a loss on PKs in their conference tournament. Trinity's best win for the year was a 2-1 win as home team vs #38 Southwestern. WashU offense looked more potent early in the season but they've managed their best 2 wins of the year within the last 2 weeks at #5 Emory [1-0... again I don't think Emory is truly #5] and hosting #8 Chicago [1-0]. Aside from a weird loss on 9/5, WashU lost 2 other games within the last few weeks: 2-3 at #46 Rochester and 0-1 at #121 NYU. Against top-30 NPI they're 4-0-0 so who knows.

Chicago: they have strong SOS this year with a lot of top-100 opponents including 7 games against top-30 NPI teams in which they are 2-2-3. They also tied #45 Carnegie Mellon and #95 Hope. I'm not really sure who would be the favorite between Chicago and WashU. They met recently at St Louis where WashU won 1-0.

I would love to hear commentary from people familiar with the MN and WI teams on what you think of their current trajectory and overall strengths or weakenesses.

I don't know a ton about the WI teams, but can give a breakdown of the 4 MIAC teams. I'll start with this, Macalester is not a team anyone should want to play right now. Here are my thoughts on each MIAC team in order of how dangerous I think each is to go on a big run in the NCAAs.

Macalester - Two things have stuck out to me about this team. 1. Maina (striker) is going to be a big problem for any defense Mac faces. Had a couple very clinical finishes in the MIAC championship game, and I think he has even improved as the season has gone on. Early on he was not very consistent, but in their past 5-6 games he has been fantastic. Good luck to any defenses that have to deal with him. 2. Macalester's size is going to be as asset for them in the tournament. This is what created the most problems for St. Olaf in the MIAC title game. The Oles had a good amount of possession in the 2nd half of the game, but Macalester was getting on the end of any service into the box that was in the air. Unless there is another team with some height, it's going to be tough to beat Mac via set pieces, corners, or crosses. The scouting report on Mac is that to beat them you need to do it on the ground and through the middle of the field.

This was a top 25 program in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but has been relatively down for most of the last 10 or so years. They won 7 out of 9 MIAC titles from 1997-2005, and had a couple of nice NCAA runs in that time period.

St. Olaf - The Oles were again the most talented team in the MIAC. There are a few holdovers from the 2023 national title squad, though none who contributed to that team in a big way. Attacking is this team's strength, and they like to create 1v1 situations on the wings and then let their guys cook. They are on the smaller side, and against bigger and more physical teams they have had some issues. They can get in trouble in a game where the whistle isn't tight, which is often the case in the NCAAs. They like to push numbers forward and get defenders involved in the attack, so they can be caught with the quick counter. Fairly balanced in terms of scoring. Bechtel is probably  their most dangerous player in the attack, and they'll move him around to either wing and occasionally in the center of the field as well. Center defender Olseth was a really good striker in high school so if the game situation calls for it they will move him up to the #9.
The committee did not do this team any favors. In round 1 they get the team that eliminated them last season as well as one of the two teams that beat them this season (UW-Superior). Then in the 2nd round they would get either Luther (who tied them this season, and is also the only team to hold them scoreless all season) or  Lake Forest (#14 in NPI with a 19-1 record).
This year's squad has some major contributors in the sophomore class, and a couple are currently nowhere near 100%, so I don't think this will be the Oles year. Bu assuming everyone comes back, this should be a top 5 team next season with an good of a chance as anyone to win it all. (Full disclosure: I am a former Ole player from the 2000s.)

Augsburg - It starts and ends with Carver Tierney, a D1/D2 transfer who is a senior. He's been firing on all cylinders of late so he could carry them a ways. This team likes to possess the ball, but are still very direct with their attack. No a lot of outside in, they go right up the gut. This team has had problems closing out games, which I think is what will do them in. It would be one thing if it happened once, but it has happened three times in the past month where they didn't get a result when the game should have been in hand. Bethel tied them with a goal in the final ten seconds. Auggies were up 2-0 on St. Olaf with about 5 minutes to go, and that game also ended in a tie. In the MIAC quarterfinal it was 1-1 at home vs St. John's with 15 min to go and the Johnnies received 2 red cards. Even playing 11 on 9 the Auggies gave up a goal and could not find one of their own to lose 2-1. NCAA games are going to be tight, and this team has shown it can't close out close games.

Gustavus - Kind of a disappointing year for this team based on preseason expectations. Many thought it would be a battle between Olaf and Gustavus for the conference title, but the Gusties ended up 4th. Very impressive win over Chicago to open the season, but things have kind of gone downhill from there. They have some talent, but no real identity. I've watched them play 6 times and I couldn't tell you about their bread and butter. Some of this might be normal in the first year for a head coach, but because of it I would be very surprised to see them get past the 2nd round.


General comment -- All of these teams have really tough round 1/2 pods.

TL;DR Macalester has the pieces and are primed to make a run. Oles have the talent, but are a year away. Auggies have the stud striker, but blow games late. Gusties have no identity.

[Ejay]

Random question for this thread...who are the biggest programs missing out on the NCAAs this year? Or even programs who had a great season but are still missing out?

A couple of traditional teams that I've noticed missing were Johns Hopkins and Kenyon, among others.

OWU missed the tournament for only the 4th time in the last 49 years.

[Kuiper]

Random question for this thread...who are the biggest programs missing out on the NCAAs this year? Or even programs who had a great season but are still missing out?

A couple of traditional teams that I've noticed missing were Johns Hopkins and Kenyon, among others.

OWU missed the tournament for only the 4th time in the last 49 years.

Franklin & Marshall's 11 year consecutive NCAA tournament bid streak was broken this year

[mngopher]

Random question for this thread...who are the biggest programs missing out on the NCAAs this year? Or even programs who had a great season but are still missing out?

Not necessarily a big name, but I think teams in the NCAAs are lucky St. John's barely missed playing their way in. They beat Augsburg twice (once 5-2, and the other scoring the winning goal playing 9 on 11) and beat UW-Superior (in the NCAAs this year and made the Sweet Sixteen last year) 7-2, and played other NCAA teams close. They would have been a tough out.

[camosfan]

Rochester seems to frequently find a way to get in, they are missing.

F & M  is still the biggest shock this season.

[Kuiper]

Random question for this thread...who are the biggest programs missing out on the NCAAs this year? Or even programs who had a great season but are still missing out?

One way to answer the latter question is to think about the wins against regionally ranked teams factor used under the old Selection Committee approach and apply it to a few teams that might have at least gotten a careful look under the old system (which is not the same as the teams that the NPI would have placed close to the line).  The Regional Rankings we have available are through Nov. 4th, so they don't reflect the conference tournament results.

1.  Teams that were undefeated but didn't make the tournament

Pfeiffer (13-0-4) (little chance) - they played all of their games against Region VI teams and didn't have a single win against a Regionally Ranked team.  Maybe they get credit for beating USA South AQ NC Wesleyan, but only if USC had issued a regional ranking after the conference tournament and NC Wesleyan was elevated to being ranked

Haverford 10-0-10 (decent chance) - They had 2 wins against regionally ranked teams (Rowan and TCNJ) and 4 ties (Dickinson, Muhlenberg (x2), and Gettysburg).  A tie against Johns Hopkins might have looked better after Hopkins made it to the Centennial final.  2 wins and 4 ties has definitely been enough in some years, but it's not a slam dunk with all the ties, especially against some relatively weaker teams.

2.  Teams losing in conference tournament finals

Colorado College (12-1-6) (decent chance) - They had 2 wins against regionally ranked opponents (Texas Lutheran and DePauw) and 3 ties (Wheaton (IL), Whitman, and Mary Hardin-Baylor).  Similar record to Haverford with more wins and fewer ties. 

Southwestern (15-2-3) (probably falls short) - They had 1 win against a regionally ranked opponent (Texas Lutheran) and 1 tie (Mary Hardin-Baylor).  They had a number of wins against teams that traditionally might have been regionally ranked (CMS, St. Thomas, Concordia TX, UCSC) but weren't at the end of this season and they lost to Trinity, their strongest opponent.

TCNJ (11-5-5) (probably falls short) - They had 1 win against a regionally ranked opponent (Montclair State) and 1 tie (Stevens) and they played several other regionally ranked opponents in a schedule that was probably harder than it initially looked as well as finished the season with bigs wins in the NJAC tournament, but the resume likely falls short

Buffalo State (12-2-5) (falls short) - 3 ties against regionally ranked opponents (Cortland, Oneonta, and Hobart), but probably falls short because they did not play a very strong schedule and they lost to Grove City, the only other team they played who made the tournament.

Mary Hardin-Baylor (13-2-5) (falls short) - Same as Buffalo State.  3 ties against regionally ranked opponents (Whitman, Colorado College, and Southwestern), but that's probably not enough, especially given the weakness of their ASC opponents.

Mount St. Vincent (14-1-2) (no chance) - no games against regionally ranked opponents

3.  Others who might have had a case

Virginia Wesleyan (12-5-1) (too close to call) - They had 2 wins against regionally ranked opponents (Christopher Newport and Bridgewater) and 1 tie (Dickinson) and a pretty strong schedule where they played strong teams pretty tight.  Not sure if it's enough though.

[Sandon Mibut]

I don't know a ton about the WI teams, but can give a breakdown of the 4 MIAC teams. I'll start with this, Macalester is not a team anyone should want to play right now. Here are my thoughts on each MIAC team in order of how dangerous I think each is to go on a big run in the NCAAs.

Macalester - Two things have stuck out to me about this team. 1. Maina (striker) is going to be a big problem for any defense Mac faces. Had a couple very clinical finishes in the MIAC championship game, and I think he has even improved as the season has gone on. Early on he was not very consistent, but in their past 5-6 games he has been fantastic. Good luck to any defenses that have to deal with him. 2. Macalester's size is going to be as asset for them in the tournament. This is what created the most problems for St. Olaf in the MIAC title game. The Oles had a good amount of possession in the 2nd half of the game, but Macalester was getting on the end of any service into the box that was in the air. Unless there is another team with some height, it's going to be tough to beat Mac via set pieces, corners, or crosses. The scouting report on Mac is that to beat them you need to do it on the ground and through the middle of the field.

All 7 of the NESCAC teams in the tourney have 15-20+ players over 6' tall on their rosters, and they all have at least 2-3 players 6'3" or taller (not including GK's). I don't know precisely how many of the tall players are starters / regular participants, but they generally have a lot of size by D3 standards. Amherst and Midd have 5-6 non-goalie players at 6'3"+.

St. Olaf - The Oles were again the most talented team in the MIAC. There are a few holdovers from the 2023 national title squad, though none who contributed to that team in a big way. Attacking is this team's strength, and they like to create 1v1 situations on the wings and then let their guys cook. They are on the smaller side, and against bigger and more physical teams they have had some issues. They can get in trouble in a game where the whistle isn't tight, which is often the case in the NCAAs. They like to push numbers forward and get defenders involved in the attack, so they can be caught with the quick counter. Fairly balanced in terms of scoring. Bechtel is probably  their most dangerous player in the attack, and they'll move him around to either wing and occasionally in the center of the field as well. Center defender Olseth was a really good striker in high school so if the game situation calls for it they will move him up to the #9.

St Olaf would potentially face Williams and Middlebury. All NESCAC teams are big and play physical ball. Middlebury  is the worst NESCAC offender when it comes to cards: 37 YC + 2 RC during 16 regular season games, plus another 10 YC in their 2 playoff games!

[SierraFD3soccer]

F & M  is still the biggest shock this season.

Maybe so for some, but not for people who have followed them for a while. Lost 9 seniors who played a substantial amount of time last year as well as some players who did not come back. Lost a lot from last year's team. Never able to generate offense other than one game. 17 games scored 16 goals. Take away the one 5 goal game, then 16 games 11 goals (.69 goal per game). Don't score goals . . .

[Hopkins92]

F & M  is still the biggest shock this season.

Maybe so for some, but not for people who have followed them for a while. Lost 9 seniors who played a substantial amount of time last year as well as some players who did not come back. Lost a lot from last year's team. Never able to generate offense other than one game. 17 games scored 16 goals. Take away the one 5 goal game, then 16 games 11 goals (.69 goal per game). Don't score goals . . .

I'll echo the same for Hopkins. They turned over a ton of guys, particularly the all-important to their system guys in the back who control their entire offense.

(Sierra and I have chronicled a lot of this over in the MA thread this season.)

While not as impressive a run as the Diplomats, this is the first November without dancing since 2016 (8 consecutive tournaments.) That 2016 miss was due to a loss to F&M in PKs in the CC finals. That season marked the first true sign that Appleby had the Jays turned in the right direction.