NCAA Tournament 2025

[Kuiper]

I thought I would take a look at Massey Ratings' view of the Final Four semifinals.  Unlike the NPI, Massey is still spitting out new numbers after each game played in the tournament, so it's more up-to-date than the NPI.

Here are how they stack up in a few of the categories

Overall

1. Tufts
2. Trinity TX
3. St. Olaf
5. Emory

Massey still has Dickinson ahead of Emory

Offensive Power

1. Trinity TX
2. St. Olaf
3. Tufts
4. Emory

Defensive Power

This is where being in the Final Four isn't necessarily indicative of ranking

1. Tufts
9. Emory
15. St. Olaf
16. Trinity TX

If defense was what got you to the Final Four, it would be Tufts, Conn, Dickinson, and Middlebury

Strength of Schedule

Given that none of the Final Four teams are close to the top 4 in SoS, and yet they each beat top teams to get here, I would say SoS isn't necessarily the end-all-be-all (especially when geography, conference membership, and travel budget often dictate SoS)

12.  Tufts (tops among Final Four teams, but weakest SoS in the NESCAC, which partially reflects lower ranked tourney opponents)
34.  St. Olaf
47.  Emory
70.  Trinity TX

Massey Predictions:

59% Tufts/41% St. Olaf.  Predicted score 2-1

54% Trinity TX/46% Emory.  Predicted score 2-1

[Sandon Mibut]

Strength of Schedule

Given that none of the Final Four teams are close to the top 4 in SoS, and yet they each beat top teams to get here, I would say SoS isn't necessarily the end-all-be-all (especially when geography, conference membership, and travel budget often dictate SoS)

12.  Tufts (tops among Final Four teams, but weakest SoS in the NESCAC, which partially reflects lower ranked tourney opponents)
34.  St. Olaf
47.  Emory
70.  Trinity TX

The SOS rankings are odd and Tufts is being 'punished' for winning lots of games against very good opponents.

Tufts this season has faced Midd, Conn and Bowdoin twice apiece with a 5-0-1 record.

They also defeated UMass-Boston (Massey rank 57) and Babson (rank 38) during regular season non-conference games.

Then Brandeis (Massey rank 29), Messiah (39) and Bowdoin (9) in the NCAA tournament.

So while Tufts' SOS is last in the NESCAC, it's basically impossible to come up with a tougher schedule than what they've faced this year unless they play against D1 opponents. Or, I suppose, if they had lost games to Conn/Midd/Bowdoin then their SOS would be higher!

[Kuiper]

Strength of Schedule

Given that none of the Final Four teams are close to the top 4 in SoS, and yet they each beat top teams to get here, I would say SoS isn't necessarily the end-all-be-all (especially when geography, conference membership, and travel budget often dictate SoS)

12.  Tufts (tops among Final Four teams, but weakest SoS in the NESCAC, which partially reflects lower ranked tourney opponents)
34.  St. Olaf
47.  Emory
70.  Trinity TX

The SOS rankings are odd and Tufts is being 'punished' for winning lots of games against very good opponents.

Tufts this season has faced Midd, Conn and Bowdoin twice apiece with a 5-0-1 record.

They also defeated UMass-Boston (Massey rank 57) and Babson (rank 38) during regular season non-conference games.

Then Brandeis (Massey rank 29), Messiah (39) and Bowdoin (9) in the NCAA tournament.

So while Tufts' SOS is last in the NESCAC, it's basically impossible to come up with a tougher schedule than what they've faced this year unless they play against D1 opponents. Or, I suppose, if they had lost games to Conn/Midd/Bowdoin then their SOS would be higher!

As I mentioned, part of this is because Massey continues to update all of these stats for games played. Other NESCAC teams' schedules are frozen in time, while Tufts has continued to play teams with lower SoS.  Tufts' first round opponent Penn State Harrisburg - a team that was on Amherst's regular season schedule but then was dropped for some reason in the middle of the season - had the lowest SoS of any NCAA tournament opponent of a Final Four team. That alone might have been enough to drag down Tufts' SoS a few spots.  Keep in mind also that other NESCAC teams had Tufts - the #1 team - on their schedules, but Tufts never played the #1 team (since it held that spot!).  In that sense, highly ranked teams are always going to play opponents with SoS that lowers theirs. 

Tufts still has higher SoS than any other Final Four team by a wide margin because it plays in a conference where most other teams have high SoS, while the other Final Four teams played in conferences where they have to play more low ranked teams.  Conferences create an echo chamber for SoS.

[SKUD]

Massey is not for soccer!  He has no clue what to do with ties and particularly post season ties. He is stuck in the past.

[Kuiper]

NCAA Semifinal Preview Game #1

Tufts (18-1-3) (NPI #1) v. St. Olaf (20-2-3) (NPI #3) on Friday, 12/5 at 3 pm EST @ Roanoke College, Salem, VA

Path to the Final Four

Tufts:

Penn State Harrisburg 5-0 @ Brandeis
Brandeis 1-0 2OT @ Brandeis
Messiah 4-1 @ Tufts
Bowdoin 2-1 @ Tufts

St. Olaf:

Wisconsin-Superior 3-0 @ St. Olaf
Luther 1-0 @ St. Olaf
Williams 2-1 @ St. Olaf
Wheaton (MA) 2-0 @ St. Olaf

A few things about this matchup that may only be of interest to me:

1.  Neither team is exactly well-traveled

I don't know if this is rare, but I was somewhat surprised to see that both teams have played every single one of their games in both the conference and NCAA tournaments either at home or at a nearby school.  St. Olaf hosted all three of its games in the MIAC tournament and has hosted all four games in the NCAA tournament.  Tufts hosted all three of its games in the NESCAC tournament and played the first two games of the NCAA tournament at Brandeis, which is a short bus ride from Tufts' campus, while hosting the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games.

In fact, it's been over a month since Tufts played a game outside the Boston area (10/28 @ Bowdoin - the last time it didn't win a game) or St. Olaf played an away game (10/25 @ Augsburg) and St. Olaf hasn't played a game outside of Minnesota since 9/12 when it played @ Wisconsin-Superior.  In fact, it's only played three games outside Minnesota all season.

2.  St. Olaf is undefeated against NESCAC teams.

Tufts and St. Olaf have never played each other and Tufts has never played a MIAC team.  St. Olaf, however, has played NESCAC teams twice before and won both games.  St. Olaf beat Amherst 2-1 in this same field at Roanoke College in Salem, VA in the 2023 NCAA Championship game and it beat Williams 2-1 in the 3rd round of the 2025 NCAA tournament.

3.  Common opponents

The only common opponent this season is Williams.  Tufts lost to Williams 3-1 in the second game of the season at home, while St. Olaf beat Williams 2-1 in the Sweet 16 at home.  Hard to draw too many conclusions from games played that far apart.

4.  St. Olaf has scored more goals

Tufts has scored 53 goals this year (2.41/game), while St. Olaf has scored 70 (2.80/game)

Tufts' scoring average doesn't really reflect its play in NESCAC, where it didn't score more than 2 goals at all until a 3-2 OT win against Middlebury in the NESCAC semis.  Its overall scoring numbers were pumped up in non-conference play, where it beat MIT 8-1, Husson 6-0, and Emerson 6-0, in addition to its tournament wins over PSU-Harrisburg and Messiah.  It was only shut out twice, but it was held to fewer than 2 goals nine times.

St. Olaf's scoring was a little more evenly distributed across the games and level of teams. It beat Pacific Lutheran 4-1, Carroll 5-0, Central 5-0, Nebraska Wesleyan 6-0, Carleton 4-3, Gustavus Adolphus 6-1, Bethel 4-1, and Concordia 5-0.  It was only shut out once (v. UChicago) and it was only held to fewer than 2 goals five times.

5.  Tufts has conceded fewer goals

Tufts has conceded 11 goals (.50/game) and has 14 shutouts.  It only allows 8.8 shots per game and has only allowed 56 shots on goal all season (.290).

St. Olaf has conceded 21 goals (.84/game) and has 12 shutouts.  It allows 11.2 shots per game and has allowed 114 shots per game (.409).

5.  Players to watch

St. Olaf

Ryan Bechtel has 11 goals and 13 assists and Jack Soares has 14 goals.  Neither has been dominant during the NCAA tournament (Bechtel has 1 goal and 1 assist and Soares has 2 goals in the Wheaton game), but both have stepped up in key moments.  Soares hasn't been as consistent, but he scored 2 goals on 4 shots against Wheaton (MA).  Most teams will try to shut Bechtel down because it means you've shut down a big part of St. Olaf's offense, but they have 7 other players in addition to those two who have scored at least 4 goals and 4 players with 7+ assists.  They can come at you in waves and it's not like only a few players have scored against the top teams.  Other players to watch include midfielder Robi Buzakovic (4 g/8 a), who along with Bechtel was voted first team All Region IX, and Casper Olseth, a big 6'3" defender who was named 2nd team All Region IX.

Tufts

Goalkeeper Nikola Antic has been a stud between the pipes all season, with a .51 goals against average and a .804 saves percentage, which garnered him 1st team All Region 1 honors, but he only was called on to make 56 saves all season.  Players like fellow 1st team All Region defender Bijan Akhtarzandi and big midfielder Ben Brown (6'5"), who has been an offensive threat in the tournament, also help keep him clean.  Up top, forward Xavier Canfin, the third Tufts 1st team All Region player and co-leader in goals and assists, is dangerous. If there are PKs, whether in the run of play or at the game's end, watch out for Daniel Yanez, who is Tufts' regular PK taker.  Tufts has had an amazing 11 PKs, scoring 10, and I think Yanez has scored half of them. I also like the movement from Henry Brown and Henry Perkins, both of whom have notched goals during the tournament.

Overview

Tufts is the favorite and the higher ranked team.  They've been consistently tough all year.  St. Olaf has been almost Tufts' equal, but their bad 4-1 stumble against Macalester in the MIAC championship game stands out. Perhaps it woke them up, though, as they avenged their only other loss against Wisconsin-Superior (2-3 early in the season), by crushing them 3-0 in the first round of the tournament.  St. Olaf also has very recent national championship experience.  They don't have Victor Gaulmin or Hakeem Morgan (let alone Shane Bechtel), but they do have 4 starters and 2 significant bench players from that game v. Amherst who are all starters on the current squad (Ryan Bechtel, Hillis, Buzakovic, Olseth, and defender Ben Beckman and midfielder Sean Elster).  That's worth something, especially playing on the exact same field.  By contrast, Tufts doesn't have a player who has gotten past the Sweet 16 and only has the memories of NCAA disappointments.  Maybe Tufts will be hungrier and St. Olaf will be complacent.  Or maybe Tufts will have doubts and be pressing while St. Olaf will play freer and more confidently.  Time will tell.

[Sandon Mibut]

By contrast, Tufts doesn't have a player who has gotten past the Sweet 16

Their 2025 squad is 1-0-0 in the Elite 8! 

Thanks for the write up and thoughts.

Anyone going to start making predictions?!

[Kuiper]

By contrast, Tufts doesn't have a player who has gotten past the Sweet 16

Their 2025 squad is 1-0-0 in the Elite 8! 

Thanks for the write up and thoughts.

Anyone going to start making predictions?!

I knew I should have added "Before this season," 

One additional fact that may only be of interest to me is that St. Olaf's Justin Oliver has won a national championship, while Tufts' Kyle Dezotell has never been this far before as a head coach.  Does it matter?  Not sure.  Oliver, after all, won the championship in his first season.  On the other hand, Dezotell may be feeling the pressure of taking over from a 4-time national championship coach (Josh Shapiro) and, in the eyes of demanding Jumbos alums, having squads that have fallen short from that lofty standard.