Bracket Prediction

[kansas hokie]

Worked a few hours tonight to come up with a bracket guess, here's what I learned...

Lyon College (SLIAC) is over 500 miles from any host site. I sent them to Chicago (555 miles) and predict that the NCAA will allow that exception vs. finding flights for them given the uncertainty in air travel.

Augsburg and St. Olaf as top 4 seeds makes it hard to fill out a bracket and limit travel. there's not enough midwest teams in the bracket to fill 8 groups of 4. I ended up moving Lake Forest (lowest seeded midwest team) out of hosting and pulled Dickinson in as a host to help balance travel.

West coast teams are flying to the midwest.

Texas pod needs a #2 seed and I sent Amherst there. I think it's likely a NESCAC school (like Bowdoin went last year) as otherwise you likely end up with two NESCAC schools in one pod.

I still had to fly Messiah to Minneapolis to fill it all out. I doubt the NCAA does that extra flight but it's hard to see how to get everyone to under 500 miles travel with the host site conflicts and the imbalance created by the top seeds.

Take a look and let me know how you would make it better..

2025 bracket guess

[mngopher]

No improvements from me. Appreciate seeing what this bracket could look like It's a very complex puzzle. I think you hit the nail on the head with all the northern/upper Midwest hosts — that makes it very difficult to avoid flights, and I'm curious how that will be handled.

[rdanie03]

No improvements from me. Appreciate seeing what this bracket could look like It's a very complex puzzle. I think you hit the nail on the head with all the northern/upper Midwest hosts — that makes it very difficult to avoid flights, and I'm curious how that will be handled.

I think these 1st weekend combinations are pretty much perfect. As for the overall, I don't think they will have the four seeded NESCAC teams all in the same quadrant. I'm guessing two NESCAC schools will be with Tufts and the other two will be in the Lynchburg quadrant(with Amherst getting shipped to Tx)

[kansas hokie]

thanks, I had a friend say the same about NESCAC. I'm going to adjust now to move some pods between regions. Move Middlebury pod over and bring Wesleyan pod to tufts region...and move Hobart pod to tufts region and move out the Bowdoin pod.  It's a good observation.

[LibbyMoore]

But don't all the conference opponents get separated in the first round?

[kansas hokie]

Yes for the first round game, just the first game. technically, you can play a conference opponent in the second game on the first weekend, but usually they don't bracket that to happen.

[stlawus]

It's NCAA Power Index, not NESCAC Protection Index.  If you're going to get a whole bunch of teams as a result of NPI then you probably shouldn't be complaining when you have to play each other early on. 

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Here's the section on Bracketing Principles from the Pre-Championship Manual

The following bracketing principles will be in effect for the next two years (2024-25 and 2025-26) to assess its financial
impact and success in protecting top-seeded teams.
1. Protection of top-eight seeded teams in the bracket.
In brackets greater than 32 teams, teams will be protected based on the seed lines of No. 1s and No. 2s (based on NPI
ranking at the time of selection).
    a. NPI rank 1-4 will be No. 1s. NPI rank 5-8 will be No. 2s.
    b. No. 1s and No. 2s will be bracketed based on quarterfinal matchups providing a possibility that the top eight (8)
teams could each advance to the round of eight.
    c. No. 1s and No. 2s will be paired in the quarterfinals based on current bracketing principles (i.e., geographic
proximity is maintained).
Brackets will be built outward based on protecting the quarterfinal matchups that will protect No. 1s and No. 2s
while maintaining geographic proximity.
2. Remaining teams will continue to be grouped in clusters according to natural geographic proximity. Teams shall then
be paired according to geographic proximity. A team may be moved to numerically balance the bracket if geographic
proximity is maintained. Teams shall be paired and eligible according to geographic proximity (within 500 miles). An
exception may be granted when there are not enough teams within the 500-mile radius to fill the region. Geographic
proximity shall take precedence over seeding for teams below the top-8 seeds.
3. Teams from the same conference shall not play one another in the first round.
4. The highest-seeded team that meets all selection criteria shall be selected as the host institutions, provided that
geographic proximity is maintained and they meet all site selection criteria.

[kansas hokie]

Yep those are the ones I followed in making the bracket guess. Basically, after you place first four and second four...it's all about geography and building pods based on host sites. We can't know all the host sites so we're unable to get it completely right, but doing this helped highlight some challenges that will be present in the bracket. Also makes it more fun to watch the reveal tomorrow.

[WUPHF]

Lyon College (SLIAC) is over 500 miles from any host site. I sent them to Chicago (555 miles) and predict that the NCAA will allow that exception vs. finding flights for them given the uncertainty in air travel.

The only school in the SLIAC that cannot bus to a host site in the first season they are eligible goes and wins the AQ.

I cannot remember ever seeing an exception for something like 555 miles, but with the shutdown...

Calvin would be a flight to anywhere in Minnesota if you want to label that a flight.

Otherwise, thanks for sharing.

[kansas hokie]

Thanks, I didn't notice Calvin's travel distance (over 500 to UW Eau Claire who hosts that pod with GA). Swapped them with Depauw (who is exactly 500 miles from UWEC). Also saw that I had Stevens outside of range so swapped them with otterbein which made great sense too.

[SierraFD3soccer]

FYI, gov't shutdown most likely done.

[WUPHF]

Calvin's travel distance (over 500 to UW Eau Claire who hosts that pod with GA). Swapped them with Depauw (who is exactly 500 miles from UWEC).

Eau Claire and DePauw are 501 miles away according to Google Maps and the now behind the paywall NCAA Mileage Calculator always seemed to add a mile or two.
 

[LibbyMoore]

It's NCAA Power Index, not NESCAC Protection Index.  If you're going to get a whole bunch of teams as a result of NPI then you probably shouldn't be complaining when you have to play each other early on. 

I was actually thinking of the problem of UAA and Minnesota schools!

[Ron Boerger]

Hmm, Trinity(TX) women are 17, which wouldn't normally get to host but there are three teams in Texas that need to play somewhere (Trinity, McMurry (82), Hardin-Simmons (57)) just like the men.  If women truly have priority it could upset the apple cart.  Will be interesting to see how the NCAA handles this tomorrow because either you let someone who really shouldn't host (like Hardin-Simmons in the women's case, TLU in the men's, ASSUMING EITHER SUBMITTED A BID) host or you are going to fly three teams somewhere.

Given the way the NCAA pinches pennies my bet is on the former option.