NCAA Tournament 2025

[CentPA]

With starting the final chapter of the season (the NCAA tournament), I thought I would start a new topic since we are not really focused on the top 25 anymore but watching how the tournament unfolds.

The NCAA protects the top 8 teams (based on the final (Selections) NPI ranking) meaning that no team in the top 8 will face another top 8 team until the 'elite 8' round (4th round or sectional final games).

This year #1 Wash U is paired in their section with #8 Messiah (second year in a row for this pairing).  #2 Emory is paired in their section with #6 Wash & Lee.  #3 Tufts is paired with #7 Williams, and #4 Chicago is paired with #5 Case Western.

Interestingly, last year (2024), of the 'protected' top 8 teams only 2 teams (Wash U and Christopher Newport) even made it to the sectional finals.

[CentPA]

This year the lowest NPI ranked team in the tournament is Wis-Superior at #227 with an NPI of 49.130.

Last year, in 2024, the lowest NPI ranked team was John Jay at #244 with an NPI of 48.844.

Both of these, obviously, were a result of earning an automatic qualifier (AQ) for winning their conference championships.

[CentPA]

Lake Forest is one of 16 hosts for this weekends opening round in the NCAA tournament by virtue of being #12 in the NPI rankings.  They are the only team in the tournament this year without a loss or tie.

However, for the entire year they were never listed in the United Soccer Coaches Top 25 poll.  In the most recent poll (National - Poll 9 - November 4, 2025) they are shown as the last team for "Also receiving votes:"  Their best win, based on the NPI values, was against MSOE ranked #69 with an NPI of 55.586 and their second best win was against North Park at #117 with an NPI of 53.394.  All of their other wins were against teams with much lower rankings and values yet Lake Forest's current NPI value is 62.308.

The United Soccer Coaches looked at Lake Forest and determined that their strength of schedule wasn't strong enough to put them in the top 25, but the NPI system has them as the 12th best team in the country!

This might be the best example that the NPI ranking system or formula may have some shortcomings and have room for some improvements in identifying or ranking the best teams.  I guess this weekend may give us a better read on which ranking was more accurate.

[CentPA]

For the first time in 18 years, the NCAA tournament is without William Smith!  Last year they were in the National Championship game against Wash U and now this year is the first year since 2006 they will not be playing in the tournament.

After 44 seasons with Coach Wilber as the head coach, I think it was just so challenging to transition to a new coach without some bumps along the way.  Hopefully they will be back in the tournament next year.

[Ron Boerger]

Can't imagine having to follow the legend - but the coach who replaced Wilber never won a regular season MIAC championship in 13 years leading Gustavus, and only made the NCAAs once during that time and lost in the first round.  Time will tell if this year was a hiccup or the start of a trend.