NCAA Tournament 2025

[CentPA]

With starting the final chapter of the season (the NCAA tournament), I thought I would start a new topic since we are not really focused on the top 25 anymore but watching how the tournament unfolds.

The NCAA protects the top 8 teams (based on the final (Selections) NPI ranking) meaning that no team in the top 8 will face another top 8 team until the 'elite 8' round (4th round or sectional final games).

This year #1 Wash U is paired in their section with #8 Messiah (second year in a row for this pairing).  #2 Emory is paired in their section with #6 Wash & Lee.  #3 Tufts is paired with #7 Williams, and #4 Chicago is paired with #5 Case Western.

Interestingly, last year (2024), of the 'protected' top 8 teams only 2 teams (Wash U and Christopher Newport) even made it to the sectional finals.

[CentPA]

This year the lowest NPI ranked team in the tournament is Wis-Superior at #227 with an NPI of 49.130.

Last year, in 2024, the lowest NPI ranked team was John Jay at #244 with an NPI of 48.844.

Both of these, obviously, were a result of earning an automatic qualifier (AQ) for winning their conference championships.

[CentPA]

Lake Forest is one of 16 hosts for this weekends opening round in the NCAA tournament by virtue of being #12 in the NPI rankings.  They are the only team in the tournament this year without a loss or tie.

However, for the entire year they were never listed in the United Soccer Coaches Top 25 poll.  In the most recent poll (National - Poll 9 - November 4, 2025) they are shown as the last team for "Also receiving votes:"  Their best win, based on the NPI values, was against MSOE ranked #69 with an NPI of 55.586 and their second best win was against North Park at #117 with an NPI of 53.394.  All of their other wins were against teams with much lower rankings and values yet Lake Forest's current NPI value is 62.308.

The United Soccer Coaches looked at Lake Forest and determined that their strength of schedule wasn't strong enough to put them in the top 25, but the NPI system has them as the 12th best team in the country!

This might be the best example that the NPI ranking system or formula may have some shortcomings and have room for some improvements in identifying or ranking the best teams.  I guess this weekend may give us a better read on which ranking was more accurate.

[CentPA]

For the first time in 18 years, the NCAA tournament is without William Smith!  Last year they were in the National Championship game against Wash U and now this year is the first year since 2006 they will not be playing in the tournament.

After 44 seasons with Coach Wilber as the head coach, I think it was just so challenging to transition to a new coach without some bumps along the way.  Hopefully they will be back in the tournament next year.

[Ron Boerger]

Can't imagine having to follow the legend - but the coach who replaced Wilber never won a regular season MIAC championship in 13 years leading Gustavus, and only made the NCAAs once during that time and lost in the first round.  Time will tell if this year was a hiccup or the start of a trend. 

[CentPA]

Tournament Trivia Tidbit:

There have been 17 different D3 women's soccer teams to win a National Championship.  Out of those 17, nine made it into this year's tournament ...

The nine that made it are (most recent year won in parantheses, note: 2020 was covid):

1. Wash U (2024)
2. Cal Lutheran (2023)
3. Johns Hopkins (2022)
4. Christopher Newport (2021)
5. Messiah (2019)
6. Williams (2018)
7. Hardin-Simmons (2010)
8. Cortland (1992)
9. Rochester (1987)

[CentPA]

Tournament Trivia Tidbit:

There have been 17 different D3 women's soccer teams to win a National Championship.  Out of those 17, nine made it into this year's tournament ...

The nine that made it are (most recent year won in parantheses, note: 2020 was covid):

1. Wash U (2024)
2. Cal Lutheran (2023)
3. Johns Hopkins (2022)
4. Christopher Newport (2021)
5. Messiah (2019)
6. Williams (2018)
7. Hardin-Simmons (2010)
8. Cortland (1992)
9. Rochester (1987)

For those wondering — the 8 that didn't make it are:

1. Lynchburg (2014)
2. William Smith (2013)
3. Wheaton(IL) (2007)
4. Oneonta (2003)
5. Ohio Wesleyan (2002)
6. TCNJ (2000)
7. Macalester (1998)
8. Ithaca (1991)

FYI: there are technically 18 D3 women's soccer teams that have won a National Championship, but I did not include UC San Diego since they are no longer in D3.  They did win five National Championships in D3 Women's soccer before moving to D1 (1989, 1995, 1996, 1997, and 1999).

[CentPA]

And today it begins!

At 1pm (EST): Illinois Tech (NPI = 62.728, ranked #11) takes on Grove City (NPI = 56.227, ranked #66)

At 3:30pm (EST): host Calvin (NPI = 60.630, ranked #23) takes on Penn St-Behrend (NPI = 58.394, ranked # 45)

These are the only two games today in the women's tournament.

[CentPA]

Tournament Trivia Tidbit:

The average NPI values of the 16 teams in each of the four sections in the tournament are (ranked from highest to lowest):

Wash U sectional: 59.619 average NPI
Emory sectional: 59.178 average NPI
Chicago sectional: 58.964 average NPI
Tufts sectional: 58.911 average NPI

Not sure that this means anything! 

I was a little impressed that only 0.708 separate the "hardest" sectional from the "easiest" sectional which seams to indicate that there is not a noticeable easy or hard route to the final four.??

[CentPA]

The second half of the (host) Calvin vs Penn St - Behrend has been really good soccer - very exciting to watch.

Calvin currently leads 1-0 with 28 minutes left and has the better play in the second half.

Some really good runs of play, great passing, good shots, and nice saves all in about 18 minutes.

[CentPA]

Illinois Tech wins the early game today over Grove City 1-0.

Calvin beats Penn St - Behrend 1-0 in the second game.  So Calvin (NPI 60.630 ranked #23) will take on Illinois Tech (NPI 62.728 ranked #11) tomorrow at 3pm (EST).

I watched most of the second half of the Calvin vs Penn St game which was very entertaining.  The shots for the game were even 16-16 with Calvin leading in shots on goal 8-6. 

Illinois Tech may have their hands full tomorrow.