2026 Conference Tournament and NCAA Selection Thread

[Ejay]

They don't get great crowds in Collegeville. Being a long drive from the Twin Cities doesn't help. But there seems to be push to build more support ... the playoff show was streamed on the video board. That, of course, was at Clemens.

Soccer is across the road and right next to the inflatable dome. Can be breezy there but the pitch is well cared for. Basic metal bleachers in a complex that also has baseball and tennis.

Willing to provide tips to anyone traveling. DM me.

Back in the day played at St. John's in mid-October. It was windy, cold and snowy. Miserable experience, especially after a 3 hour flight.

[Gregory Sager]

This will depend somewhat on results, but I'm betting the Tufts/St. Olaf/St. John's/Chicago (not saying those particular teams will advance, just to be clear which region I am referring to) sweet sixteen/elite eight will be held at one of the Midwest sites. Likely Chicago or St. Olaf assuming one of them advance.

That seems obvious, since it's essentially a sectional that contains one northeastern pod matched with three pods that are not only midwestern, but almost completely consist of schools located west of the Indiana-Illinois state line. There's a 700-mile-plus gap between the westernmost schools in the Tufts pod and the easternmost schools in the three midwestern pods.

The NCAA is not going to fly three midwestern teams to the northeast. They'll fly one northeastern team to the midwest.

Right, I think what's notable about it is that Tufts is the top seed in that sectional, but likely won't have an opportunity to host the 3rd/4th rounds based on the structure of the bracket and budget limitations.

There was a similar situation in 2024 with I believe Amherst where they were the top seed in the sectional and were sent to Eau Claire for the sweet sixteen/elite eight. Some folks on here seemed quite surprised by it at the time, and I think learned the lesson that when it comes to D3 soccer the budget will trump seeding.

Yeah, I also thought that it was kind of strange. Then again, it's hard to feel sorry for any NESCAC team for being potentially shafted in the second weekend in a year in which exactly half of the opening weekend's hosting privileges throughout the entire bracket belong to that league's teams.

I mean, it's one thing for a single league to have one-eighth of the entire bracket of 64 teams. But to host eight of the 16 pod sites as well? It's clear that the bigger concern for the committee when constructing this year's bracket wasn't how to deal with the Texans and the West Coasters; it was how to line up half of the bracket to play on a NESCAC pitch this coming weekend.

[stlawus]

This will depend somewhat on results, but I'm betting the Tufts/St. Olaf/St. John's/Chicago (not saying those particular teams will advance, just to be clear which region I am referring to) sweet sixteen/elite eight will be held at one of the Midwest sites. Likely Chicago or St. Olaf assuming one of them advance.

That seems obvious, since it's essentially a sectional that contains one northeastern pod matched with three pods that are not only midwestern, but almost completely consist of schools located west of the Indiana-Illinois state line. There's a 700-mile-plus gap between the westernmost schools in the Tufts pod and the easternmost schools in the three midwestern pods.

The NCAA is not going to fly three midwestern teams to the northeast. They'll fly one northeastern team to the midwest.

Right, I think what's notable about it is that Tufts is the top seed in that sectional, but likely won't have an opportunity to host the 3rd/4th rounds based on the structure of the bracket and budget limitations.

There was a similar situation in 2024 with I believe Amherst where they were the top seed in the sectional and were sent to Eau Claire for the sweet sixteen/elite eight. Some folks on here seemed quite surprised by it at the time, and I think learned the lesson that when it comes to D3 soccer the budget will trump seeding.

Yeah, I also thought that it was kind of strange. Then again, it's hard to feel sorry for any NESCAC team for being potentially shafted in the second weekend in a year in which exactly half of the opening weekend's hosting privileges throughout the entire bracket belong to that league's teams.

I mean, it's one thing for a single league to have one-eighth of the entire bracket of 64 teams. But to host eight of the 16 pod sites as well? It's clear that the bigger concern for the committee when constructing this year's bracket wasn't how to deal with the Texans and the West Coasters; it was how to line up half of the bracket to play on a NESCAC pitch this coming weekend.

And thus we come back to NPI. Since the top 8 seeds are protected that means the bracket has to be set up such that all top 8 seeds have to be able to have the chance to play each other in the elite 8. And top 8 seeds are hosts by default barring scheduling conflicts.

[Ron Boerger]

There was a similar situation in 2024 with I believe Amherst where they were the top seed in the sectional and were sent to Eau Claire for the sweet sixteen/elite eight. Some folks on here seemed quite surprised by it at the time, and I think learned the lesson that when it comes to D3 soccer the budget will trump seeding.

This is a lesson teams on the West Coast and in Texas learned many years ago.  Welcome to our world.

[Gregory Sager]

This will depend somewhat on results, but I'm betting the Tufts/St. Olaf/St. John's/Chicago (not saying those particular teams will advance, just to be clear which region I am referring to) sweet sixteen/elite eight will be held at one of the Midwest sites. Likely Chicago or St. Olaf assuming one of them advance.

That seems obvious, since it's essentially a sectional that contains one northeastern pod matched with three pods that are not only midwestern, but almost completely consist of schools located west of the Indiana-Illinois state line. There's a 700-mile-plus gap between the westernmost schools in the Tufts pod and the easternmost schools in the three midwestern pods.

The NCAA is not going to fly three midwestern teams to the northeast. They'll fly one northeastern team to the midwest.

Right, I think what's notable about it is that Tufts is the top seed in that sectional, but likely won't have an opportunity to host the 3rd/4th rounds based on the structure of the bracket and budget limitations.

There was a similar situation in 2024 with I believe Amherst where they were the top seed in the sectional and were sent to Eau Claire for the sweet sixteen/elite eight. Some folks on here seemed quite surprised by it at the time, and I think learned the lesson that when it comes to D3 soccer the budget will trump seeding.

Yeah, I also thought that it was kind of strange. Then again, it's hard to feel sorry for any NESCAC team for being potentially shafted in the second weekend in a year in which exactly half of the opening weekend's hosting privileges throughout the entire bracket belong to that league's teams.

I mean, it's one thing for a single league to have one-eighth of the entire bracket of 64 teams. But to host eight of the 16 pod sites as well? It's clear that the bigger concern for the committee when constructing this year's bracket wasn't how to deal with the Texans and the West Coasters; it was how to line up half of the bracket to play on a NESCAC pitch this coming weekend.

And thus we come back to NPI. Since the top 8 seeds are protected that means the bracket has to be set up such that all top 8 seeds have to be able to have the chance to play each other in the elite 8. And top 8 seeds are hosts by default barring scheduling conflicts.

Yes, I know the reason why the NESCAC has eight of the 16 hosting sites. That doesn't make me feel even a tiny bit bad about the possibility that the Jumbos will have to get on a plane to O'Hare or MSP weekend after next.

[repete]

Yeah, was all set for the jokes about the Missionaries' position in the playoffs.

[MunnyTim]

I debated posting this message this week, but a lot of conversation has been bouncing back and forth on selection and the NPI.  Full transparency, I am a NESCAC fan (go Camels), so context is important.  I am also someone who has been involved in D3 athletics for decades, across a whole host of sports.  Two thoughts to share.

First, I will state I am not a huge fan of any selection criteria that leads to one conference getting eight bids, with teams 9 and 10 being the first two outside the window of an at-large bid.  Just does not feel right.

Which leads to the second point, which NCAA hoops fans will be somewhat familiar with.  And that is the actual objective in determining selection criteria - are we looking for the "best" teams?  Or are we looking for those who are "most deserving"?  While those two objectives may align with certain teams (St. Olaf comes to mind this year), at times they diverge with certain teams.  It seems the NPI is designed to get to the "best" teams, but as a general sports fan, I believe there should be a space in our selection windows for those who are "most deserving."  The teams from one bid leagues who have extraordinary regular seasons but may lose in the conference tournament.  The sports fan in me thinks we should have space for them in national tournaments, and if that is at the expense of the 7th or 8th place team in the NESCAC, so be it.

The NESCAC is a league that has sent a 6th place team to the national final as recently as 2024 (go Camels), so the league is certainly deep and has shown that teams from outside the top 4 can do some damage in the NCAA tournament.  We've also seen Buffalo St. knock out a NESCAC top seed in penalties by playing a great game.  In the end, you can't have a cinderella story without inviting her to the dance, I guess.

[Sandon Mibut]

Today's data dump of information I find interesting.

A tie against #33 Oneonta is worth the same (56.08) as a win against #270 Alma which is very close to the NPI needed for an at-large bid to NCAAs.

So a team could go 0-0-10 against opponents ranked ~30-39 and make NCAAs.

Or a team could go 10-0-0 against opponents ranked ~260-269 and make NCAAs.

Defeating NPI #200 is worth 57.764 and if you did that 10x you would be ranked #16 in the country.

Below is a comparison of many teams on either side of the bubble including 2 of the NESCAC teams that have got people fired up (Wesleyan at #11 and Bates at #34).

There are a lot of ways to make it to NCAAs.

Team:	#7 St. Olaf	#11 Wesle- yan	#24 Wash & Lee	#27 North Park	#29 Hop- kins	#30 Chris Newp	#33 Oneonta	#34 Bates	#36 Wash U	#38 Trinity TX	#40 TCNJ	#43 Salis- bury	#49 Haver- ford	#58 Wisc- Super
opponents:	#15 win #20 win #20 tie #45 tie #58 tie #60 win #67 tie #107 win #107 win #119 win #120 win #133 win #138 win #225 win #252 win #260 win #276 win #313 win #327 win #329 win #377 win	#1 loss #1 tie #2 tie #3 loss #4 win #5 loss #6 loss #8 tie #34 loss #35 win #50 win #72 win #104 win #108 tie #112 win #186 win	#12 tie #12 loss #12 loss #29 win #30 win #70 win #80 loss #80 win #87 tie #89 win #159 tie #169 win #199 win #221 win #226 win #256 win #316 win #398 win	#15 loss #36 tie #56 tie #67 win #73 win #76 win #92 tie #96 win #111 tie #124 win #191 win #191 tie #213 win #213 win #252 win #267 win #268 win #306 win #329 win	#24 loss #41 loss #43 loss #44 tie #49 win #49 win #68 win #78 win #97 win #106 win #112 win #114 loss #114 win #132 win #135 tie #168 win #169 win #208 win #259 win	#13 loss #24 loss #43 win #71 win #97 win #99 win #117 tie #140 tie #159 win #177 win #214 win #228 win #265 win	#16 tie #17 loss #51 tie #88 win #113 loss #118 win #131 win #167 win #187 win #198 win #229 win #248 win #248 win #251 win #341 win #367 win #389 win	#1 loss #2 loss #3 tie #4 loss #5 loss #6 tie #8 tie #11 win #25 loss #35 loss #50 win #146 win #161 win #205 tie #288 win	#9 loss #15 tie #22 win #27 tie #42 tie #53 loss #62 tie #79 loss #90 win #93 win #108 win #110 win #267 win #268 win #280 win #314 win #346 win	#18 tie #57 loss #62 win #62 tie #73 loss #74 tie #95 win #100 tie #105 win #109 tie #109 win #136 win #154 win #184 win #219 win #221 win #224 win #280 win	#10 tie #10 loss #13 tie #39 win #41 tie #48 tie #63 tie #91 tie #112 tie #114 tie #134 win #134 win #189 tie #214 win #223 win #228 win #262 win #265 win #298 win	#12 loss #29 win #30 loss #59 tie #70 win #70 tie #121 tie #132 win #162 win #168 tie #226 win #258 win #259 win #264 win #265 win #282 win #316 win #366 win	#29 loss #29 loss #63 win #97 loss #97 win #112 tie #114 win #121 win #132 loss #132 win #135 win #168 win #169 win #173 win #189 win #208 win #230 win #265 tie #300 win #324 win #386 win	#7 tie #20 loss #45 loss #61 tie #120 loss #133 win #138 win #138 tie #138 win #182 win #182 win #225 win #276 win #295 win #295 win #295 win #351 win #351 win #380 win #380 win #382 win #382 win
Overall .	17-0-4	7-5-4	12-3-3	13-1-5	13-4-2	9-2-2	13-2-2	5-6-4	10-3-4	11-2-5	9-1-9	12-2-4	15-4-2	16-3-3
vs Top-100 .	3-0-4	4-5-3	5-3-2	4-1-3	5-3-1	4-2-0	1-1-2	2-6-3	3-3-4	2-2-4	1-1-6	2-2-2	2-3-0	0-2-2
vs #101- #200 .	6-0-0	3-0-1	2-0-1	2-0-2	6-1-1	2-0-2	5-1-0	2-0-0	2-0-0	5-0-1	2-0-3	2-0-2	8-1-1	5-1-1
vs teams outside of the top-200 .	8-0-0	0-0-0	5-0-0	7-0-0	2-0-0	3-0-0	7-0-0	1-0-1	5-0-0	4-0-0	6-0-0	8-0-0	6-0-0	11-0-0
Best win .	#15	#4	#29	#67	#49	#43	#88	#11	#22	#62	#39	#29	#63	#133
Best tie .	#20	#1	#12	#36	#44	#117	#16	#3	#15	#18	#10	#59	#112	#7
Average rank of Best 3 wins	31.7	29.7	43.0	72.0	55.3	70.3	112.3	69.0	68.3	87.3	102.3	77.0	91.3	136.3
Average rank of Best 10 opponent	61.8	9.9	50.1	74.6	59.9	94.0	108.6	10.0	49.2	75.5	54.1	85.3	92.6	98.2

[camosfan]

Maybe they should change the national championship format to an all-season 512 teams knockout format, I know people will still have issues.

[Gray Fox]

Maybe they should change the national championship format to an all-season 512 teams knockout format, I know people will still have issues.

Who gets a bye for the first game?

[camosfan]

Last year final 4 skip first round.

[Gregory Sager]

Maybe they should change the national championship format to an all-season 512 teams knockout format, I know people will still have issues.

... the first of which is that there's only 410 teams in D3 men's soccer.

[camosfan]

NO problem there,that can be accomodated.

[wesleyansuperfan20]

I debated posting this message this week, but a lot of conversation has been bouncing back and forth on selection and the NPI.  Full transparency, I am a NESCAC fan (go Camels), so context is important.  I am also someone who has been involved in D3 athletics for decades, across a whole host of sports.  Two thoughts to share.

First, I will state I am not a huge fan of any selection criteria that leads to one conference getting eight bids, with teams 9 and 10 being the first two outside the window of an at-large bid.  Just does not feel right.

Which leads to the second point, which NCAA hoops fans will be somewhat familiar with.  And that is the actual objective in determining selection criteria - are we looking for the "best" teams?  Or are we looking for those who are "most deserving"?  While those two objectives may align with certain teams (St. Olaf comes to mind this year), at times they diverge with certain teams.  It seems the NPI is designed to get to the "best" teams, but as a general sports fan, I believe there should be a space in our selection windows for those who are "most deserving."  The teams from one bid leagues who have extraordinary regular seasons but may lose in the conference tournament.  The sports fan in me thinks we should have space for them in national tournaments, and if that is at the expense of the 7th or 8th place team in the NESCAC, so be it.

The NESCAC is a league that has sent a 6th place team to the national final as recently as 2024 (go Camels), so the league is certainly deep and has shown that teams from outside the top 4 can do some damage in the NCAA tournament.  We've also seen Buffalo St. knock out a NESCAC top seed in penalties by playing a great game.  In the end, you can't have a cinderella story without inviting her to the dance, I guess.

I understand and respect your perspective, but as another fellow NESCAC fan, I respectfully disagree. There cannot be a subjective committee pretending to oversee all 400+ teams of college soccer and decide who gets in. The idea that this format existed until 2-3 years ago is insane. Can the NPI algorithm / weights be adjusted? Of course. Is it perfect? No, and it probably never could be.

But seeing what I call the "annual west coast outrage" this past week has been a bit too much. There's always complaints about the NESCAC, east coast teams, etc. The NCAA Tournament is for the best teams in the country - at least, the at-large spots are for exactly that. If we make it about who's most deserving, I'd imagine there's 400+ opinions on what that means. And as others have poked at, we'd need a 400 team tournament to decide a national champion.

The NESCAC has, by far, the best teams in the country. This may upset you if your son doesn't play in the NESCAC, but this is just the truth. Learn from Babson: they prove they can compete with the best by scheduling NESCACs every year (where they usually tie games at best). But, to what extent is there a point to this? See you guys in November 2027 for our annual west coast outrage.

[SKUD]

wesleyansuperfan20 you are correct about Babson but forgot to mention their dominance over Wesleyan. 2-0-1 recently.

I would note the NESCAC has figured out the faults of NPI and are starting to exploit it by avoiding the Beavers and other strong teams not in the NESCAC.