D3boards.com

Edited to add 7th voter



Also Receiving Votes:
Coast Guard (12) , Chicago (11) , Emory (11) , Washington U. (11) , Rowan (10) , Randolph (8) , St. Mary's (Md.) (7) , Augsburg (6) , Eastern (4) , Redlands (4) , Kenyon (3) , St. Olaf (3) , Wheaton (Ill.) (2) , Pacific Lutheran (1) , Wilmington (1)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 7 = 7th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, D4_Pace, PaulNewman, D3_Slack

And special thanks to @jknezek for putting it all together.

And we have a surprise 8th voter. So rather than edit the poll up top, I'll just drop this one down here. Next week I'm holding to my deadlines....


Also Receiving Votes:
Hope (18) , Chicago (12) , Coast Guard (12) , Washington U. (11) , Rowan (10) , Randolph (8) , St. Mary's (Md.) (7) , Augsburg (6) , Eastern (4) , Redlands (4) , Kenyon (3) , St. Olaf (3) , Gustavus Adolphus (2) , Wheaton (Ill.) (2) , Pacific Lutheran (1) , Wilmington (1)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 20 = 20th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, D4_Pace, PaulNewman, D3_Slack, FBALLISLIFE

Some things to note.

1) Clear tiers at the top. 1-4 and 5-8 are way out in front.

2) Middlebury has the widest dispersion. #1 on 1 ballot, unranked on another. You can't get wider than that!

3) W&L has half the #1 votes, but still ranks second with the lowest vote of the 4 teams in the top tier (9th)

4) The bottom of the poll is a muddle. There are 16 teams in the ARV category. That's almost as many as in the entire poll.

5) Hope, Chicago, and Coast Guard all show up on 4 ballots but can't crack a poll spot above teams like NCC with 3 ballots, Carthage (3 ballots), and Emory (2 ballots).

First off, this is great thanks for setting this up.
Second, I love the NESCAC but in no world is Middlebury the best team in the country with a win over Bowdoin their only significant result. That being said it is interesting to see everyone's different opinions.

Great job jknezek et al!

Thank you voters, and thank you jknezek for setting this up!

Great slate of games today and great to see the season turn to conference play.  Will really start to bring greater clarity to who the top teams are.  Still so much out of conference wins that are inflating some, and deflating other rankings.  In my view this weekend is when things start to really get interesting.

Also Receiving Votes:
Chicago (14) , RPI (14) , Lebanon Valley (9) , Rochester (8) , MIT (7) , Hope (6) , Rowan (6) , St. Olaf (6) , Gustavus Adolphus (5) , Redlands (5) , Pacific Lutheran (4) , Kenyon (3) , Dominican (2)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 20 = 20th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown

Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, D4_Pace, PaulNewman, D3_Slack, FBALLISLIFE, Mid-Atlantic Fan

Items of note:

1) A first place tie and third place is only 1 pt behind. It's a logjam at the top!
2) W&L has the most first place votes and the lowest vote in the first 3 teams
3) Messiah, in third place, actually has the highest votes from every voter. Their lowest is 4th, Tufts is 5th, W&L is 6th
4) Quite a drop off to Ohio Wesleyan and Trinity (TX) in 4/5 slots.
5) Ohio Wesleyan has significantly more consistency than Trinity (TX) from the voters
6) Washington U is the first team, at 11th, not to appear on all 9 ballots
7) Amherst has the widest spread, a 2 vote and a 20 vote
8) Middlebury took the largest tumble week to week, going from 6 to 20
9) Rochester and Carthage drop out
10) Connecticut College and Washington University jump in
11) Washington University debuting at 11 is the biggest jump.

Once all the votes are collected how do you calculate the points each team gets?  Thank you.

Quote from: D3_Slack on October 07, 2021, 10:23:23 AM
Once all the votes are collected how do you calculate the points each team gets?  Thank you.

1st spot on a ballot is worth 20 pts, 20th spot on a ballot is worth 1 pt. Sum up all the ballots for each team.

10/12 posted Poll moved several messages down to fix formatting issues

Interesting things of note:

1) W&L takes over sole first place and widens the gap in the top 3, holding 6 of the 9 first place votes
2) Trinity (TX) is still a distant 4th from the top 3
3) Of teams appearing on all 9 ballots, Emory holds the biggest disparity with 2 7th place votes and a 20th
4) North Central has 3 votes in the top 10, and 2 no votes
5) The weeks big winner: Middlebury, who claws back 5 of the 14 places they lost last week
6) The weeks big loser: Oneonta State, who falls from 8th to the middle of the Also Receiving Votes teams


I'll fix the table formatting next week. Adding the weekly change column caused me to run out of space. Will lower the font sizes so it all fits on one line on full screen desktop. Not much I can do about mobile.

I guess comments and reveals do make more sense of this thread.

My top 10 this week was...

1)   WASHINGTON & LEE
2)   MESSIAH
3)   TUFTS
4)   OWU
5)   TRINITY (TX)
6)   NYU
7)   EMORY
8)   JOHNS HOPKINS
9)   AMHERST
10)   MONTCLAIR ST

I dropped Oneonta, F&M, RPI, Cortland, and my fave Pac Lutheran (who lost once this past week, not twice as appeared for at least a while counting Puget Sound loss twice).

The teams making (or still making) the group poll that I didn't have in top 20 were Cortland, Midd, and Kenyon.

I moved Calvin back in at #17 after having them out.

Other differences group poll were I had New Paltz in at #14, C-M-S still in at #15 (previous week at #13 for me), and Redlands newly in at #18.

I finally conceded on North Central adding them in at #19.

Biggest snubs/misses in group poll imo was New Paltz not getting in, St Olaf barely squeezing in at #20 while I had the Oles at #11, and to a lesser degree Emory coming in at #12 while I had the Eagles at #7.

Interesting how some teams seem to hold their value.  Hard to budge Calvin even with four blemishes.  Chicago also pretty resilient.  C-M-S and RPI had I think a draw each and both are out.  Rowan dropped like a stone I think with one loss too.  If Otterbein lost or had couple more draws they'd be out.  It's partly schedule and value of certain results, but there's also a reputation factor as well.

Teams that were "last teams out" for me this week were in no particular order MIT, Kenyon, Midd, and North Park, along with Oneonta, Cortland, and few others who dropped out in last week or two.

Closer to home, if I was voting tonight Kenyon would jump to #11 or #12 and OWU would drop to #8 or #9.

*** Repost to fix formatting issues



Also Receiving Votes:
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (19) , Swarthmore (16) , MIT (12) , New Paltz State (10) , Oneonta State (7) , RPI (7) , Hope (4) , Randolph (4) , Redlands (4) , Franklin and Marshall (3) , Gustavus Adolphus (2) , North Park (1)

Newly Ranked: Chicago, Kenyon, St. Olaf
Dropped Out: Oneonta State (Prev:8), Franklin and Marshall (Prev:15), Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (Prev:16)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 20 = 20th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, D4_Pace, PaulNewman, D3_Slack, FBALLISLIFE, Mid-Atlantic Fan

We picked up a new voter this week. Welcome to ConnAlum who has joined our little experiment.

Quote from: jknezek on October 20, 2021, 08:41:49 AM
We picked up a new voter this week. Welcome to ConnAlum who has joined our little experiment.

Woot!

Also Receiving Votes:
North Central (IL) (31) , Connecticut College (18) , Middlebury (18) , Franklin and Marshall (12) , Mary Hardin-Baylor (12) , Randolph (12) , Wilmington (10) , Hope (8) , Oneonta State (3) , RPI (3) , Swarthmore (3) , Wesleyan (3) , Gettysburg (1) , Vassar (1)

Newly Ranked: MIT, North Park, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
Dropped Out: North Central (IL) (Prev:13), Middlebury (Prev:15), Connecticut College (Prev:16)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 20 = 20th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, D4_Pace, PaulNewman, D3_Slack, FBALLISLIFE, Mid-Atlantic Fan, ConnAlum

Ok. Took a few tries but the formatting is now better.

Thanks to our voters!

Obviously biased but aside from some variance in placement of a few teams this poll looks pretty good to me.

My two disagreements (which is consistent with at least one of the real polls) are Chicago and  Hopkins (although I wouldn't argue much with Hopkins at #20).  Now, do I think Chicago and probably Hopkins are two of the best 20 teams?  Yes, I do.  [Last week had Hopkins at #8 but they just had back to back losses as I see a voter has them still at #7.] But I also think that about Midd, Conn, CNU, Oneonta, JCU, RPI, F&M, etc.

PN's Top 10

1) Washington & Lee
2) Tufts
3) Messiah
4) Trinity (TX)
5) Montclair St
6) St Olaf
7) Kenyon
8) North Park
9) OWU
10) Amherst

My top 20 vote had 18 of the 20 in the published group poll, omitting the aforementioned Chicago and JHU.  From my most recent prior poll, I dropped Hopkins, Conn Coll, New Paltz, Redlands, and Chicago (who I had clinging at #20).  My new entrants were Kenyon, North Park as noted above, and then MIT at #16, Cortland returning at #18, and Vassar at #20.  For the last couple of spots, also strongly considered Rowan, F&M, Wilmington, and Conn.

I inverted Messiah and Tufts from my prior poll based on the two basically being tied in my mind and the Tufts win over Amherst just feels a little bigger than the Messiah escape with Eastern.

If we get nothing else the rest of the season I really hope we get a Tufts-Messiah match-up in Sweet 16 or Elite 8 (but, please, not the final four).

Final thought consistent with remarks about best 20 vs currently deserve top 20....If Tufts, Messiah, and W&L played a round robin, I'd give Tufts and Messiah equal chances to beat the other two or be at least 1-0-1, and W&L the least likely of the three to beat the other two back to back.  Presumably W&L would only have to beat one of them to reach the final four, but who knows, maybe they'll avoid both.

Quote from: jknezek on October 20, 2021, 08:41:49 AM
We picked up a new voter this week. Welcome to ConnAlum who has joined our little experiment.

Happy to be a part of it. Think this Top 20 is pretty solid for the most part and better than both the USC and D3soccer.com polls imo (USC poll is a disaster every week).

My takes for the week: Think MIT, Hopkins and Cortland are overrated — all good but not necessarily Top 20. I'd personally replace them with North Central, Wilmington, and Conn or Wesleyan. Conn and Wesleyan both more talented than all three imo - MIT tied Clark and Wes beat them 3-0 (and Conn's above Wes in NESCAC standings), Hopkins couldn't even score against Ursinus, and Cortland has taken L's to unranked Rochester (who were the better team btw) and more notably Brockport who are 2-5 in conference play. North Central looked legit against #15 North Park (definitely worse than NP but still good) and have a 14-1-1 record for a reason. And Wilmington's gotta be the most underrated team in the country (4-0 W against KZoo and other solid results v. Ohio Northern, Mt. Union and Denison). I ranked them at #18 and pretty shocked to see they only got 10 RV — No way they're below teams like Randolph and Mary-Hardin Baylor. They play Otterbein tonight which should be an awesome battle of the two remaining unbeaten teams in the OAC (both are 10-0-3).

Not sure I agree w/ NYU > Chicago and OWU > Kenyon. Chicago just beat NYU convincingly 3-0 (a game w/ 8 Yellow cards and a Red card btw) and Kenyon beat OWU last week and had the better stats. I had Kenyon at #6, OWU #7, Chicago #12 and NYU #13.

Respectfully speaking W&L's only significant results are a W v. Christopher Newport and a tie against a talented Emory squad (W's v. Lynchburg if you want to count those too I guess), so I placed Tufts and Messiah above them. Will be interested to see the results from their next 3 games v. Roanoke, Randolph-Macon and VA Wesleyan (all top-half teams in the ODAC) — I'll predict they don't come out of that slate 3-0. On a side note I know Centre's Final 4 appearance in 2019 was kind of a fluke but still crazy to see W&L (Sweet 16 team in '19 iirc) beating them 7-0 this year. This season Centre is barely Top 3 in the weak SAA conference and have plummeted from where they were 2 years ago.

Finally I know Trinity TX is undefeated but I'd still take a team like Amherst over them any day. Maybe it's my NESCAC bias but I ranked Amherst at #4 and definitely believe they are a Final 4 caliber team again this year. And if teams like Gettysburg and Vassar are managing to receive some votes, 9-1-1 Rowan (with W's v. New Paltz and Washington MD, who are currently tied w/ Gettysburg in the CC) surely deserves some, too.

Only 9 voters submitted ballots this week. Thought we would get our first consensus #1 but Trinity (TX) squeaked out a first place vote. Connecticut College re-entering the poll at 13 is the big winner, North Park falling out of the top 20 is the biggest drop-off. This is the biggest spread we've had between first and second place so far.



Also Receiving Votes:
North Park (17) , Franklin and Marshall (10) , Wesleyan (7) , Middlebury (5) , North Central (IL) (3) , Gettysburg (2) , Rochester (2) , Wilmington (1)

Newly Ranked: Connecticut College
Dropped Out: North Park (Prev:15)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 20 = 20th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, D4_Pace, PaulNewman, D3_Slack, Mid-Atlantic Fan, ConnAlum

This poll imo without a doubt is the most accurate.  Only minor disagreement for me is North Park dropping out but at least they are first in line in RV.

PN's Top 20


1) Messiah
2) Washington & Lee
3) Montclair St
4) Tufts
5) Trinity (TX)
6) St Olaf
7) Kenyon
8) Calvin
9) Amherst
10) OWU
11) Emory
12) Otterbein
13) C-M-S
14) Connecticut Coll
15) MIT
16) Cortland St
17) Chicago
18) North Park
19) NYU
20) Wash U

Thanks for compiling, JK. A quick comparative glance at the USC poll shows some consistency with this one, with the exception of Washington, which USC rates significantly higher than this poll, and Kenyon, which USC rates significantly lower. This late in the season the cream is rising to the top. Bring on the playoffs.

Quote from: Centennial1 on October 27, 2021, 10:27:00 AM
Thanks for compiling, JK. A quick comparative glance at the USC poll shows some consistency with this one, with the exception of Washington, which USC rates significantly higher than this poll, and Kenyon, which USC rates significantly lower. This late in the season the cream is rising to the top. Bring on the playoffs.

You are welcome. With the tools I built I probably spend more time writing a quick private message or two each week to remind our voters when ballots are due than I spend compiling and posting the poll!

I hope the voters and posters are enjoying it, though I suspect our voters have found it to be a little more work than they suspected. I have been happy with the number of views it is getting every week. I think the voters are doing a great job, given my limited knowledge of D3 soccer, and I hope most, if not all, will come back next season.

I have offered to do a fan poll for basketball as well, something I know even less about than soccer, but have had no takers. So I am very thankful for the voters who have stepped up to contribute to the soccer community!

It's brutally difficult.  Another one of those things that seem easy until you actually have to do it yourself.  I'm finding 5-6 teams that you expect to win every game, another 10-15 that should win most every game, and then another 10 teams that if things fall into place can beat anyone.  Ranking only 20 in order is tough. 

Quote from: Ejay on October 27, 2021, 11:22:30 AM
It's brutally difficult.  Another one of those things that seem easy until you actually have to do it yourself.  I'm finding 5-6 teams that you expect to win every game, another 10-15 that should win most every game, and then another 10 teams that if things fall into place can beat anyone.  Ranking only 20 in order is tough.

Frankly, if we were to go to 25 or even 50, you would still have 10 more teams you'd be agonizing over. I dropped it to 20 because it is less work, simply fewer teams to keep track of. I'm open to going to 25 next year if the voters want to put in the time, but I'd also be willing to drop to 15 if that is what it takes to have a significant group of participants.

I'd rather have 7-10+ voters and fewer teams voted on than 3-6 voters and a lot of teams included.

For me, the number of teams we rank is not something that would cause me to say I no longer have time.

I think 20 is good.  I WANT 25 but 20 is a good challenge.  It's also fun to compare to the other polls so anything less than 20 might make that difficult.  But yes, when I get down to especially the last 2-3 I have a list of 12-15 candidates and feels a bit like throwing darts.  Felt bad leaving out North Central, Dubuque, and Wesleyan, and last couple of weeks on fence about what to do with F&M, Hopkins, RPI, and I guess Rochester (but already so many UAAs in there).  Curious about Mary Hardin-Baylor and could be time to give Redlands another shot.  Just too many.  Vassar and Gettysburg deserve some love.

Quote from: College Soccer Observer on October 27, 2021, 12:02:05 PM
For me, the number of teams we rank is not something that would cause me to say I no longer have time.

Same.

If my trajectory of checking in on various other teams outside of the Mid-Atlantic continues, I'll definitely do the poll next year. This is really the first year I've made a concerted effort to hop around and view teams on streams to get a feel for what's happening nationally. Been really cool getting more familiar with NESCAC, UAA and a few other highly ranked teams.

I've found that watching teams that I'm not normally interested in has definitely swayed my opinion.  For example, I've now watched Tuts a few times this year and honestly I'm not overly impressed. Yes they're good, but not "oh wow they're really good" good.

Quote from: Ejay on October 27, 2021, 12:29:28 PM
I've found that watching teams that I'm not normally interested in has definitely swayed my opinion.  For example, I've now watched Tuts a few times this year and honestly I'm not overly impressed. Yes they're good, but not "oh wow they're really good" good.

This. Being a part of the poll is making me heighten my efforts to watch teams outside of my neck of the woods, as a matter of due diligence. Deciding not to watch teams from my own league that I've already seen seven or eight times in order to watch other games is how I've become sold on St. Olaf, f'rinstance. I've seen part of three Oles games now, and I'm totally convinced that they're a legit power.

Quote from: Ejay on October 27, 2021, 12:29:28 PM
I've found that watching teams that I'm not normally interested in has definitely swayed my opinion.  For example, I've now watched Tuts a few times this year and honestly I'm not overly impressed. Yes they're good, but not "oh wow they're really good" good.

@Ejay, am with you and am learning every day of teams that impress me, or don't.  I too am on the St. Olaf bandwagon.  Think they are legit.  These are some that I have come around to Kenyon, North Park and Trinity in Texas as well, to name a few thanks to branching out.  It's been super helpful to watch where I can.  Also done a lot to turn me off to a lot of programs I thought were better than they were ... ie, Franklin & Marshall, Catholic, College of New Jersey, and yes, Amherst.

Granted, maybe I should be aware of some of these things, but I am relatively new to the broader D3 world.  It's been pretty enlightening to say the least.

I think it is fair to say that this year's Tufts team hasn't quite reached the level of past editions. That being said they are still certainly a threat as we head into November which is when the games really matter. 

If you want to see Tufts at their best, their game against Calvin at the last final 4 was probably the best example, particularly the first half.

https://www.ncaa.com/video/soccer-men/2019-12-06/diii-mens-soccer-2019-semifinal-tufts-calvin-full-game

Quote from: d4_Pace on October 27, 2021, 02:59:33 PM
I think it is fair to say that this year's Tufts team hasn't quite reached the level of past editions. That being said they are still certainly a threat as we head into November which is when the games really matter. 

If you want to see Tufts at their best, their game against Calvin at the last final 4 was probably the best example, particularly the first half.

https://www.ncaa.com/video/soccer-men/2019-12-06/diii-mens-soccer-2019-semifinal-tufts-calvin-full-game

I love the passion and appreciate the support you have for the program, but how they played in 2019 semi-final is irrelevant to my point.  I simply stated that watching games has shown me there are lots of teams deserving of a top 5 ranking.  If #5 played #20 10 times, and the O/U on wins was 6.5, which side would you take?  Personally I wouldn't touch that bet.

Is Tufts good? Yes.  Are they a no-brainer top 5 team? No, not in my opinion. Would I gripe if they were a consensus #3? No, not really.

Quote from: Ejay on October 27, 2021, 12:29:28 PM
I've found that watching teams that I'm not normally interested in has definitely swayed my opinion.  For example, I've now watched Tuts a few times this year and honestly I'm not overly impressed. Yes they're good, but not "oh wow they're really good" good.

I was responding this post which was a completely different argument. I agree that this year there seems to probably be more parity than in the past.

Unfortunately we are down to only 7 voters this week...


Also Receiving Votes:
Lynchburg (5) , MIT (5) , Middlebury (4) , North Central (IL) (4) , Kalamazoo (2) , Penn State-Harrisburg (2) , Redlands (2)

Newly Ranked: Franklin and Marshall, North Park
Dropped Out: MIT (Prev:18), Johns Hopkins (Prev:20)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 20 = 20th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, D4_Pace, PaulNewman, ConnAlum

Submission for this week's ranking....

1. Washington & Lee
2. Tufts
3. Trinity (TX)
4. St. Olaf
5. Messiah
6. Kenyon
7. Calvin
8. OWU
9. Connecticut Coll
10. Montclair St
11. Otterbein
12. Washington U
13. Chicago
14. Amherst
15. Cortland St
16. North Park
17. Franklin & Marshall
18. Emory
19. North Central
20. C-M-S

For the Fan Poll as of last week... this week won't be up until tomorrow most likely...


Teams that did not make the tournament field but were in the poll: #20 CMS (13pts), RV MIT(5pts), and RV Kalamazoo(2pts).

At-Large Bids that made the field but weren't in the poll: Middlebury (4pts), Rowan (0pts), Johns Hopkins (0pts), Gettysburg (0pts), Swarthmore (0pts), Rochester (0pts).

Well done to our voters, who mostly agreed with the committee before the final week of the season.

Are we doing a top 20 this week?

Quote from: College Soccer Observer on November 08, 2021, 02:48:29 PM
Are we doing a top 20 this week?

We are doing the one due tomorrow. After that, just a post-season wrap up if you guys are interested.

Sorry for being a bit late, but thankful we kept our 7 voters from last week!


Also Receiving Votes:
Denison (14) , Franklin and Marshall (12) , Middlebury (12) , Washington College (11) , Lynchburg (6) , Christopher Newport (4) , Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (3) , Rowan (3) , Penn State-Harrisburg (2)

Newly Ranked: John Carroll, North Central (IL)
Dropped Out: Franklin and Marshall (Prev:17), Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (Prev:20)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 20 = 20th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, D4_Pace, PaulNewman, ConnAlum

Nailed 1-2-3 in order  ;D

PN's end of regular season, pre-tournament submission...

1. Tufts
2. Messiah
3. W&L
4. Trinity (TX)
5. Wash U
6. Conn College
7. St Olaf
8. Kenyon
9. Otterbein
10. OWU
11. Chicago
12. Amherst
13. Cortland St
14. John Carroll
15. Montclair St
16. North Central
17. Washington College
18. Emory
19. Franklin & Marshall
20. Denison

Just realized a failure of omission.  I somehow lost Calvin who I had at #7 just the week prior.  After the loss to Trine, I intended to put the Knights probably between Amherst and Cortland, so around #13.

Not much interest in doing a final poll, so instead I will take our pre-tournament poll and label the finishes. Very proud and thankful for our contributors who livened up this section of the board with some hard work and did a fantastic job with the poll this season.


Also Receiving Votes:
Denison (14) Rd1 -- Covenant, Franklin and Marshall (12) Rd2 - Middlebury, Middlebury (12) Elite 8 - Amherst, Washington College (11) Sweet 16 - Tufts, Lynchburg (6) Rd1 -- Hanover, Christopher Newport (4) Sweet 16 -- W&L, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (3) DNP, Rowan (3) Rd2 -- CNU, Penn State-Harrisburg (2) Rd1 -- Johns Hopkins

Nice.  Great touch to close it out.

Of the teams who made the field but didn't make our poll, Stevens, Pac Lu, Redlands, Loras, Covenant, Hanover, Babson, and Kean made it out of the first round. Several played other teams that weren't in our poll, ensuring at least one would advance. Of those that did, only Hanover made it out of Round 2. So of the 16 teams in the Sweet 16, 15 were among the 29 teams ranked or receiving votes in our poll.

Overachievers:
Hanover was the unranked team going the farthest, losing to Messiah in the Sweet 16, Middlebury was the Receiving Votes team that went the farthest, reaching the E8 before being edged by Amherst, and Chicago (11) was the lowest ranked team that reached the Final Four, also being tipped by Amherst.

Underachievers:
Trinity(TX) at 5 was the highest ranking team to crash out in the First Round. North Central at T18 was the only other Top 20 team to lose in Rd 1.

Wash U at 3 was the highest ranking team to go out in the second round, followed by Kenyon at 6, Ohio Wes at 8, Otterbein at 12, Emory at 16, and NYU at T18. Of these teams, Kenyon, Otterbein, and NYU lost to higher ranking teams, Kenyon to Messiah, Otterbein to Chicago, and NYU to Conn College. Hard to consider that underachieving.

Wash U lost to T18 North Park and Ohio Wes lost to 14 Calvin, neither of which I'd consider massive upsets but to be ranked so high and go out in Rd2 is difficult. Emory lost to Hanover, an unranked team that wasn't really on the Top 20 radar. That is a bit tougher to swallow than the other 2.

Quote from: PaulNewman on December 08, 2021, 03:47:10 PM
Nice.  Great touch to close it out.

Yes, this was a nice coda to the whole fan-poll project.

Full disclosure: I tried bending over backwards to avoid showing favoritism to North Park on my ballots, and I might've bent a little too far. I didn't have NPU on my first three ballots (Sept. 29, Oct. 6, and Oct. 13), although, as it turned out, nobody else did, either, until the Oct. 13 poll, when one person had the Vikings 20th. I did have NPU 16th on my Oct. 20 ballot, since the Vikings had just beaten #13 North Central and I figured that I would have some company. As it turned out, NPU placed #15 in the Oct. 20 poll, one spot higher than I'd had them, with three of the other six voters putting the Vikings higher than I did and one putting them in the same spot where I had them.

For the Oct. 27 poll, which came after North Park had lost 1-0 to Chicago, I dropped the Vikings down to 19th, based upon the rule of thumb that you don't drop a team too far if they lose to another ranked team unless it's a blowout. That was a rare moment in which I didn't read the room, because the Vikings dropped out of the poll entirely (although they were the top Also Receiving Votes team, just two points behind Johns Hopkins at #20). For the Nov. 3 poll I had the Vikes at #18, more due to teams losing above them than anything else, and the poll had them just behind me at #19 with all but one fellow voter (who didn't have NPU on his ballot) joining me in the 16-to-19 range. For the Nov. 11 poll I dropped out NPU entirely in the wake of the Vikings' CCIW tourney semifinal upset at the hands of Wheaton -- and was surprised to see that the Vikings had not only stayed in the poll but had moved up into a three-way tie for #18!

I felt pretty good about North Park's chances to make a tourney run, so in retrospect I probably should've worried less about being a homer and made a better pre-tournament forecast with my final ballot.

@jknezek, appreciated your addendum on the "disappointment " category. 

On a side note, I found that one of the biggest challenges for a pollster is what to do with, relatively speaking, high blemish teams with high SOS.  IMO it's easier to deal with teams with sterling records and low SOS, unless of course the latter have some notable results against "the big boys."  I'm probably missing one or two, but the ones I debated the most in my head were Chicago, North Park, CNU, Midd, and as the season wore on Emory, NYU, Wesleyan.  I don't know if this is roughly how others vote but I viewed poll status as distinct from who I really think are the top 10-15 teams in the country and in the end sometimes weighed both as sort of a compromise.  For much of the season I viewed Chicago, North Park, Kenyon, and for a time Emory and NYU as legit contenders who in my heart of hearts were among the top 6-8 but my personal view on that wasn't always reflected in my polls.  I also tried to be conservative re: homerism, and iirc didn't put Kenyon in to the top 20 at all until the last 2-3 weeks of the season even though they were not a high blemish team but also didn't any really notable wins until OWU.

Quote from: PaulNewman on December 09, 2021, 10:36:32 AM
@jknezek, appreciated your addendum on the "disappointment " category. 

On a side note, I found that one of the biggest challenges for a pollster is what to do with, relatively speaking, high blemish teams with high SOS.  IMO it's easier to deal with teams with sterling records and low SOS, unless of course the latter have some notable results against "the big boys."  I'm probably missing one or two, but the ones I debated the most in my head were Chicago, North Park, CNU, Midd, and as the season wore on Emory, NYU, Wesleyan.  I don't know if this is roughly how others vote but I viewed poll status as distinct from who I really think are the top 10-15 teams in the country and in the end sometimes weighed both as sort of a compromise.  For much of the season I viewed Chicago, North Park, Kenyon, and for a time Emory and NYU as legit contenders who in my heart of hearts were among the top 6-8 but my personal view on that wasn't always reflected in my polls.  I also tried to be conservative re: homerism, and iirc didn't put Kenyon in to the top 20 at all until the last 2-3 weeks of the season even though they were not a high blemish team but also didn't any really notable wins until OWU.

Numbers aren't always the whole story, and the addendum to the Underachiever section was necessary when I thought about it for more than a second. Yes, those teams underachieved based on where we had them in the poll, but the NCAA didn't care about our poll and those losses needed to be looked at differently given the opponents.

When I do the football poll I always try and go with who I think will win on the field. That gives me a poll that doesn't always align with other people, and is generally heavy on traditional favorites, but I think it also is the best way to project the best order. One of the reasons I refused to be part of the soccer poll was because I just didn't feel I could watch enough games to make those decisions, and I would have had to rely on the numbers too much. It's also why I stick to the Regional football poll, not the national one. When you have 240 football teams, or 400+ soccer teams, there just isn't a great way to decide between closely grouped teams. As we tend to see year after year, 1-4 hardly ever all make the Elite Eight, let alone the Final Four. This year only W&L of the top 4 seeds (theoretically of course) made the Final Four, and the other 3 teams were likely somewhere in the 5-15 range.

As the Final Four showed, the difference between those 4 teams was miniscule. Even in the E8, the difference in those games was razor thin. What does that tell us? Generally the difference between #1 in our poll, and #20, isn't as big as we think. The difference between #10 and those RV probably isn't real large. And the difference between a team RV and simply having a good conference championship type season, is probably just a win here or there. So any way you decide your ballot, there isn't enough crossover to do anything but provide rough estimates.

I will say that I think the best indication of how well you guys did as pollsters was that 15/16 in the Sweet Sixteen came from our last 29 on the ballots. 12 of 16 came from our top 20. 2 of the 3 RV teams were highly competitive teams that played difficult schedules, so teams we punished for blemishes despite playing top competition... Middlebury and CNU. And the last 2 were teams that just got Tournament hot, Washington College and Hanover.

Getting so many of the Sweet 16 indicates you guys really did have a finger on the pulse.

@jknezek, I mostly agree with leaning in the direction you suggested (the top teams period and who in my heart of hearts is stronger between Team X and Team Y), and I think probably many of us did lean that way but I would find it difficult to do that 100%.  Couple of examples.  Preseason I believed Kenyon was top 6-8 and that never changed, but after an opening day narrow loss at home to JCU and no great wins soon after to counter that I couldn't justify putting them where I "deep down" believe they rated.  And if I have like say an Otterbein and Chicago both in my top 15 or so for several weeks it's hard not to put Otterbein a little higher if they keep winning if Chicago has an 0-2-1 stretch even though I wouldn't have favored Otterbein over Chicago H2H.  One of my adjustments for that is when Chicago loses I'm not going to whack them as hard as Otterbein or like a C-M-S after taking a loss.  This also comes up in a case like PS-Harrisburg who is undefeated or nearly undefeated when they beat Messiah.  Definitely give them some credit for that but it's a question of how much...and do I just consider the W or L or do I consider a team like that getting the W when shots are like 30 to 3 in the other direction.  Anyway imo I felt I needed to weigh all those factors but with the most weighting usually going in the direction you suggest.  North Park is a great example.  I felt from Day 1 that NP was one of the most talented, dangerous teams in the country, but if they have a rough patch and are 5-3 it's hard to rationalize keeping or putting them at #7...but maybe instead of out of the poll entirely my "true" feeling about them gets them at that point at #17 or in RV.

Big picture, I think there are few if any of us who truly can fairly rate all of the teams.  Like even sitting here today, I have no real feel for how good Redlands was.  Same with some others like North Central, Hopkins, Rowan that might be more familiar.  And I don't conclude based on a single tournament loss that so and so wasn't as good as they were ranked or their record suggested.  Better teams losing, especially in tournaments, is a high frequency event.

The other thing in terms of matching up poll numbers with tournament results/finish is the wild card of the draw as you touch on.  With some of the 2nd round games (and even a couple of 1st rounders) a highly ranked team was going to get knocked out by definition.  So the comparison is certainly interesting and very glad you did it but it's also inherently flawed (and hence your very on the mark addendums).

Quote from: jknezek on December 08, 2021, 03:59:35 PM
Wash U at 3 was the highest ranking team to go out in the second round, followed by Kenyon at 6, Ohio Wes at 8, Otterbein at 12, Emory at 16, and NYU at T18. Of these teams, Kenyon, Otterbein, and NYU lost to higher ranking teams, Kenyon to Messiah, Otterbein to Chicago, and NYU to Conn College. Hard to consider that underachieving.

Wash U lost to T18 North Park and Ohio Wes lost to 14 Calvin, neither of which I'd consider massive upsets but to be ranked so high and go out in Rd2 is difficult. Emory lost to Hanover, an unranked team that wasn't really on the Top 20 radar. That is a bit tougher to swallow than the other 2.

Washington University was an underachiever relative to the rankings, but I don't think they were the best team in the UAA and therefore should have never been ranked so high.

Quote from: WUPHF on December 09, 2021, 01:36:05 PM

Quote from: jknezek on December 08, 2021, 03:59:35 PM
Wash U at 3 was the highest ranking team to go out in the second round, followed by Kenyon at 6, Ohio Wes at 8, Otterbein at 12, Emory at 16, and NYU at T18. Of these teams, Kenyon, Otterbein, and NYU lost to higher ranking teams, Kenyon to Messiah, Otterbein to Chicago, and NYU to Conn College. Hard to consider that underachieving.

Wash U lost to T18 North Park and Ohio Wes lost to 14 Calvin, neither of which I'd consider massive upsets but to be ranked so high and go out in Rd2 is difficult. Emory lost to Hanover, an unranked team that wasn't really on the Top 20 radar. That is a bit tougher to swallow than the other 2.

Washington University was an underachiever relative to the rankings, but I don't think they were the best team in the UAA and therefore should have never been ranked so high.

Aside from our little poll as well as the real ones, the more important factor is how teams get rated by the cmtes and for seedings.  I feel like some have suggested that info is accessible and would be very interesting to see.  Kenyon clearly didn't get seeded close to their rankings, and my guess is that Wash U was a high seed (and I believe was considered the home team vs NP).  I know seedings and placements are influenced by geography and cost considerations but it seems that certainly at the top end there are at least pretty clear #1 and #2 seeds per quads and maybe up to #3 and #4 per quads.

Quote from: WUPHF on December 09, 2021, 01:36:05 PM

Quote from: jknezek on December 08, 2021, 03:59:35 PM
Wash U at 3 was the highest ranking team to go out in the second round, followed by Kenyon at 6, Ohio Wes at 8, Otterbein at 12, Emory at 16, and NYU at T18. Of these teams, Kenyon, Otterbein, and NYU lost to higher ranking teams, Kenyon to Messiah, Otterbein to Chicago, and NYU to Conn College. Hard to consider that underachieving.

Wash U lost to T18 North Park and Ohio Wes lost to 14 Calvin, neither of which I'd consider massive upsets but to be ranked so high and go out in Rd2 is difficult. Emory lost to Hanover, an unranked team that wasn't really on the Top 20 radar. That is a bit tougher to swallow than the other 2.

Washington University was an underachiever relative to the rankings, but I don't think they were the best team in the UAA and therefore should have never been ranked so high.

5-1-1 in the UAA. They had 2 blemishes, no one else had less than 3, and if they were 3, all 3 were losses. They may not have looked the part, but they played the part of the best team. For me, it's really hard to discount what happens on the field. It's why the game is played. So when the top team from one of the top conferences in the country goes into the tournament, it is going to be as a pretty high seed.

As anyone who has followed the coaches' polls for numerous years knows, the final (post-NCAA tournament) coaches' poll is almost a direct reflection of tournament advancement: champion #1, runner-up #2, other two semifinalists #3 & #4, remaining four quarterfinalists #5 thru #8, the remaining Sweet 16 teams #9 thru #16, etc. (It's in keeping with how they do their ranking during the regular season when all the regional #1's have to be ranked ahead of all the regional #2's, etc.)

We at D3soccer.com considered that to be redundant and meaningless and did not want that for our final ranking.  We wanted teams to be judged on their full body of work which includes the NCAA tournament matches but is not completely defined by it. A poll is inherently meant to be subjective, and we have always made clear to our voters that we did not want a ranking that was rigid and formulaic and negated/muted their individual opinion and evaluation of teams. We have left it to our voters to decide how much (extra) weight to give to tournament matches. We give them the freedom to use their own discernment rather than having to conform to NCAA tournament finish or having to follow a rigid set of criteria we provide.

We let our voters know that they have the freedom to . . .
- consider a team who picked up a rare tie or loss (maybe their only one of the season) at the "wrong" time in the tournament to be better than a team who advanced further than them but on the whole did not have as good a season.
- consider the bracketing, recognizing that some teams were dealt tougher match-ups in the early rounds and a tougher tournament path.
- consider an upset to be just that — the better team being beaten by a inferior team.
- cast a No. 1 vote for a team other than the NCAA champion.

But there's the question of what a ranking is supposed to capture and signify, and it is hard to find consensus on this point. I personally don't think a ranking should be about where a team "deserves" to be ranked, but, that said, I understand the dilemma/distraction of the idea of where a team "deserves" to be ranked. To try to get past this, we suggest that our voters ask themselves questions like the following:
(1) If these teams played tomorrow, all things being equal and neutral, who in your judgement is more likely to win?
(2) If these teams started a series of ten games tomorrow, with all things being equal and neutral, who in your judgement is more likely to win more often?

Now, I don't think these questions are the be-all, end-all. Question 1 can result in overly rewarding the current team on a hot streak (which likely will end) while ignoring another team's hot streak that already ended but is still playing very well and is equally capable of taking off on another hot streak. And this is especially tough in the final poll when trying to decide what to do with a team that got hot in the tournament and made a nice run.  But these questions (especially throughout the season) try to find the sweet spot in between (a) basing your vote/ballot on merely the win/loss/tie results to date and (b) projecting how well you think a team will finish the season.  It requires considering performance, not just counting the number of wins and losses (or even who those wins and losses came against).  It allows (demands) that strength-of-schedule to be factored in. But it is not asking you to try to see into the future and forecast or predict based on potential or expected improvement by tournament time.

Anyway, it was interesting seeing how the fan poll turned out each week after years of seeing and evaluating the voting tendencies of the website's panel.  It's interesting to read about putting teams higher on the ballot even though in your gut you wouldn't have picked them to win a head-to-head against another team.  Given my perspective and approach (as I just tried to explain above), if I had participated, my ballot would have gone the other way in those cases.

But regardless of what you think the ranking is supposed to capture or signify, it's still impossible to confidently and consistently achieve your goal because of how many teams there are, how relatively few teams you actually get to see play, and how relatively few Top 25 and inter-regional match-up occur throughout the season.  But it can be fun (and worthwhile) trying.  I'm glad you guys did this fan poll.  It's an idea we at D3soccer.com had for many years, but already being stretched thin, it wasn't something we ever chose to take on and organize.  Glad to see it finally happen.

Quote from: PaulNewman on December 09, 2021, 11:54:24 AM
@jknezek, I mostly agree with leaning in the direction you suggested (the top teams period and who in my heart of hearts is stronger between Team X and Team Y), and I think probably many of us did lean that way but I would find it difficult to do that 100%.  Couple of examples.  Preseason I believed Kenyon was top 6-8 and that never changed, but after an opening day narrow loss at home to JCU and no great wins soon after to counter that I couldn't justify putting them where I "deep down" believe they rated.  And if I have like say an Otterbein and Chicago both in my top 15 or so for several weeks it's hard not to put Otterbein a little higher if they keep winning if Chicago has an 0-2-1 stretch even though I wouldn't have favored Otterbein over Chicago H2H.  One of my adjustments for that is when Chicago loses I'm not going to whack them as hard as Otterbein or like a C-M-S after taking a loss.  This also comes up in a case like PS-Harrisburg who is undefeated or nearly undefeated when they beat Messiah.  Definitely give them some credit for that but it's a question of how much...and do I just consider the W or L or do I consider a team like that getting the W when shots are like 30 to 3 in the other direction.  Anyway imo I felt I needed to weigh all those factors but with the most weighting usually going in the direction you suggest.  North Park is a great example.  I felt from Day 1 that NP was one of the most talented, dangerous teams in the country, but if they have a rough patch and are 5-3 it's hard to rationalize keeping or putting them at #7...but maybe instead of out of the poll entirely my "true" feeling about them gets them at that point at #17 or in RV.

Big picture, I think there are few if any of us who truly can fairly rate all of the teams.  Like even sitting here today, I have no real feel for how good Redlands was.  Same with some others like North Central, Hopkins, Rowan that might be more familiar.  And I don't conclude based on a single tournament loss that so and so wasn't as good as they were ranked or their record suggested.  Better teams losing, especially in tournaments, is a high frequency event.

Agree with most of this. It's easier in football, there are far fewer actual game day data points. It's a fun exercise for sure.

Quote from: Christan Shirk on December 09, 2021, 02:31:07 PM
As anyone who has followed the coaches' polls for numerous years knows, the final (post-NCAA tournament) coaches' poll is almost a direct reflection of tournament advancement: champion #1, runner-up #2, other two semifinalists #3 & #4, remaining four quarterfinalists #5 thru #8, the remaining Sweet 16 teams #9 thru #16, etc. (It's in keeping with how they do their ranking during the regular season when all the regional #1's have to be ranked ahead of all the regional #2's, etc.)

We at D3soccer.com considered that to be redundant and meaningless and did not want that for our final ranking.  We wanted teams to be judged on their full body of work which includes the NCAA tournament matches but is not completely defined by it. A poll is inherently meant to be subjective, and we have always made clear to our voters that we did not want a ranking that was rigid and formulaic and negated/muted their individual opinion and evaluation of teams. We have left it to our voters to decide how much (extra) weight to give to tournament matches. We give them the freedom to use their own discernment rather than having to conform to NCAA tournament finish or having to follow a rigid set of criteria we provide.

We let our voters know that they have the freedom to . . .
- consider a team who picked up a rare tie or loss (maybe their only one of the season) at the "wrong" time in the tournament to be better than a team who advanced further than them but on the whole did not have as good a season.
- consider the bracketing, recognizing that some teams were dealt tougher match-ups in the early rounds and a tougher tournament path.
- consider an upset to be just that — the better team being beaten by a inferior team.
- cast a No. 1 vote for a team other than the NCAA champion.

But there's the question of what a ranking is supposed to capture and signify, and it is hard to find consensus on this point. I personally don't think a ranking should be about where a team "deserves" to be ranked, but, that said, I understand the dilemma/distraction of the idea of where a team "deserves" to be ranked. To try to get past this, we suggest that our voters ask themselves questions like the following:
(1) If these teams played tomorrow, all things being equal and neutral, who in your judgement is more likely to win?
(2) If these teams started a series of ten games tomorrow, with all things being equal and neutral, who in your judgement is more likely to win more often?

Now, I don't think these questions are the be-all, end-all. Question 1 can result in overly rewarding the current team on a hot streak (which likely will end) while ignoring another team's hot streak that already ended but is still playing very well and is equally capable of taking off on another hot streak. And this is especially tough in the final poll when trying to decide what to do with a team that got hot in the tournament and made a nice run.  But these questions (especially throughout the season) try to find the sweet spot in between (a) basing your vote/ballot on merely the win/loss/tie results to date and (b) projecting how well you think a team will finish the season.  It requires considering performance, not just counting the number of wins and losses (or even who those wins and losses came against).  It allows (demands) that strength-of-schedule to be factored in. But it is not asking you to try to see into the future and forecast or predict based on potential or expected improvement by tournament time.

Anyway, it was interesting seeing how the fan poll turned out each week after years of seeing and evaluating the voting tendencies of the website's panel.  It's interesting to read about putting teams higher on the ballot even though in your gut you wouldn't have picked them to win a head-to-head against another team.  Given my perspective and approach (as I just tried to explain above), if I had participated, my ballot would have gone the other way in those cases.

But regardless of what you think the ranking is supposed to capture or signify, it's still impossible to confidently and consistently achieve your goal because of how many teams there are, how relatively few teams you actually get to see play, and how relatively few Top 25 and inter-regional match-up occur throughout the season.  But it can be fun (and worthwhile) trying.  I'm glad you guys did this fan poll.  It's an idea we at D3soccer.com had for many years, but already being stretched thin, it wasn't something we ever chose to take on and organize.  Glad to see it finally happen.

Thanks Christian. I think this is mostly in line with my thoughts as well, though better and more fully expressed. I also appreciate the technical help and advice you offered when I first broached this idea. I know we all appreciate the effort you put in to D3soccer.com. Hopefully I will get enough voters again next fall to continue this little experiment. Considering the time I put into building the infrastructure, I sure hope so!

Quote from: PaulNewman on December 09, 2021, 01:44:34 PM

Quote from: WUPHF on December 09, 2021, 01:36:05 PM

Quote from: jknezek on December 08, 2021, 03:59:35 PM
Wash U at 3 was the highest ranking team to go out in the second round, followed by Kenyon at 6, Ohio Wes at 8, Otterbein at 12, Emory at 16, and NYU at T18. Of these teams, Kenyon, Otterbein, and NYU lost to higher ranking teams, Kenyon to Messiah, Otterbein to Chicago, and NYU to Conn College. Hard to consider that underachieving.

Wash U lost to T18 North Park and Ohio Wes lost to 14 Calvin, neither of which I'd consider massive upsets but to be ranked so high and go out in Rd2 is difficult. Emory lost to Hanover, an unranked team that wasn't really on the Top 20 radar. That is a bit tougher to swallow than the other 2.

Washington University was an underachiever relative to the rankings, but I don't think they were the best team in the UAA and therefore should have never been ranked so high.

Aside from our little poll as well as the real ones, the more important factor is how teams get rated by the cmtes and for seedings.  I feel like some have suggested that info is accessible and would be very interesting to see.  Kenyon clearly didn't get seeded close to their rankings, and my guess is that Wash U was a high seed (and I believe was considered the home team vs NP).  I know seedings and placements are influenced by geography and cost considerations but it seems that certainly at the top end there are at least pretty clear #1 and #2 seeds per quads and maybe up to #3 and #4 per quads.

Wash U was the top seed in the pod played at NPU's Hedstrand Field. NPU was the #2 seed. The Bears were displaced from hosting because this year was the women's turn to host the first weekend, and the Wash U women's team qualified to host.

Quote from: Gregory Sager on December 09, 2021, 02:45:56 PM

Quote from: PaulNewman on December 09, 2021, 01:44:34 PM

Quote from: WUPHF on December 09, 2021, 01:36:05 PM

Quote from: jknezek on December 08, 2021, 03:59:35 PM
Wash U at 3 was the highest ranking team to go out in the second round, followed by Kenyon at 6, Ohio Wes at 8, Otterbein at 12, Emory at 16, and NYU at T18. Of these teams, Kenyon, Otterbein, and NYU lost to higher ranking teams, Kenyon to Messiah, Otterbein to Chicago, and NYU to Conn College. Hard to consider that underachieving.

Wash U lost to T18 North Park and Ohio Wes lost to 14 Calvin, neither of which I'd consider massive upsets but to be ranked so high and go out in Rd2 is difficult. Emory lost to Hanover, an unranked team that wasn't really on the Top 20 radar. That is a bit tougher to swallow than the other 2.

Washington University was an underachiever relative to the rankings, but I don't think they were the best team in the UAA and therefore should have never been ranked so high.

Aside from our little poll as well as the real ones, the more important factor is how teams get rated by the cmtes and for seedings.  I feel like some have suggested that info is accessible and would be very interesting to see.  Kenyon clearly didn't get seeded close to their rankings, and my guess is that Wash U was a high seed (and I believe was considered the home team vs NP).  I know seedings and placements are influenced by geography and cost considerations but it seems that certainly at the top end there are at least pretty clear #1 and #2 seeds per quads and maybe up to #3 and #4 per quads.

Wash U was the top seed in the pod played at NPU's Hedstrand Field. NPU was the #2 seed. The Bears were displaced from hosting because this year was the women's turn to host the first weekend, and the Wash U women's team qualified to host.

Right, understood...but do you know if Wash U was the #1 or #2 seed for the entire quadrant.  Like I think D4 or someone suggested that Tufts was the #1 seed in the whole tournament.  Does anyone have access to the seedings at that level?

Per usual Christan did a far better describing what I wanted to describe than I could.

Reading through that quickly I guess our one quibble is like my Otterbein/Chicago example.  So I want to make sure about the possible divergence there.

Hypothetically, which may roughly correlate with what I did....

Let's say I had Chicago at #10 and Otterbein at #15 (and btw, Otterbein imo WAS one the the toughest teams for anyone to figure out where to place).  Chicago loses and Otterbein has a clean week.  Let's say I move Chicago down to #12 and Otterbein up to #14.  Then the next week Chicago goes 0-1-1 and Otterbein has another clean week.  Are you saying you can't see Otterbein moving ahead even if you think H2H Chicago likely would win (or does it matter if you think would win 60-40 vs 90/10).

A little pushback here on the H2H thing.  Are you (and others) suggesting that you could do that up and down the line?  I'm not sure that follows.  Because rankings aren't just H2H...they involve a ranking wrt to the whole group.  How would you employ that strategy up and down the line especially when there are contradictions, either based on real results like vs common opponents or projections by myself (like I'm  pretty sure Conn Coll would beat Wash U who is at #8 but also pretty sure Conn would lose to NP at #16). 

Quote from: PaulNewman on December 09, 2021, 03:03:33 PM

Quote from: Gregory Sager on December 09, 2021, 02:45:56 PM

Quote from: PaulNewman on December 09, 2021, 01:44:34 PM

Quote from: WUPHF on December 09, 2021, 01:36:05 PM

Quote from: jknezek on December 08, 2021, 03:59:35 PM
Wash U at 3 was the highest ranking team to go out in the second round, followed by Kenyon at 6, Ohio Wes at 8, Otterbein at 12, Emory at 16, and NYU at T18. Of these teams, Kenyon, Otterbein, and NYU lost to higher ranking teams, Kenyon to Messiah, Otterbein to Chicago, and NYU to Conn College. Hard to consider that underachieving.

Wash U lost to T18 North Park and Ohio Wes lost to 14 Calvin, neither of which I'd consider massive upsets but to be ranked so high and go out in Rd2 is difficult. Emory lost to Hanover, an unranked team that wasn't really on the Top 20 radar. That is a bit tougher to swallow than the other 2.

Washington University was an underachiever relative to the rankings, but I don't think they were the best team in the UAA and therefore should have never been ranked so high.

Aside from our little poll as well as the real ones, the more important factor is how teams get rated by the cmtes and for seedings.  I feel like some have suggested that info is accessible and would be very interesting to see.  Kenyon clearly didn't get seeded close to their rankings, and my guess is that Wash U was a high seed (and I believe was considered the home team vs NP).  I know seedings and placements are influenced by geography and cost considerations but it seems that certainly at the top end there are at least pretty clear #1 and #2 seeds per quads and maybe up to #3 and #4 per quads.

Wash U was the top seed in the pod played at NPU's Hedstrand Field. NPU was the #2 seed. The Bears were displaced from hosting because this year was the women's turn to host the first weekend, and the Wash U women's team qualified to host.

Right, understood...but do you know if Wash U was the #1 or #2 seed for the entire quadrant.  Like I think D4 or someone suggested that Tufts was the #1 seed in the whole tournament.  Does anyone have access to the seedings at that level?

Based upon the way that the bracket was set up and the way that it was presented as a graphic, my impression was that the four sectional #1 seeds were Tufts, W&L, Wash U, and Amherst.

I don't know if the committee further seeds the sectional #1s amongst themselves or not.

Was just coming on to say the same GS.

(Not for nothing, but Hopkins was bounced in Rd2 by JCU... In a snow storm!)

I'm only pushing this because a) I got nothing better to do right now lol...sad I know; b) because it's fun sort of like a puzzle; c) really want to understand the reasoning to others and to what extent I agree or don't...

The concept if "deserves" is an interesting one.  That could mean so many different things.  Deserves based on results (wins and losses), based on SOS, based on the test of who one thinks wins in H2Hs, and probably some other measures.

And just on the H2H argument, is there a suggestion that, from your pov, you couldn't or wouldn't ever have a Chicago at #16 after multiple losses (like already had a couple of Ls and got two more that week) if on the H2H test you think Chicago would defeat 6-8 teams ranked above it?  Lke you can't see a scenario where you wouldn't have Chicago above them?  And I ask that before even getting into the H2H dilemma of considering 3 or 5 or more teams where the answers to the H2H test yield very mixed results...like you think Team R would beat Teams S and T but lose to Teams Y and Z and Teams Y and Z would lose or split with Teams S and T.  And yes, I'm algebraic-challenged.

Put another way, Tufts could have started the season with a loss to Babson or Skidmore and a loss at Bowdoin, and I could still believe Tufts was the better team and would beat all the other teams in the top 5.  Where do I then put Tufts?

Guess it's time to revive this thread for the new season. If you are interested in participating, I will run the poll again if we get enough pollsters. My only caveat is that if you agree to participate you try your best to do it every week so that things are consistent. Also, you try to be on time because it's no fun for anyone if I have to track you down every week and pester you to get your votes in.

I'll probably run it the same as last year with the same deadlines, so the poll will include games that start before Sunday at midnight EST and will be due to me before Tuesday EST at midnight and I will try to post on Wednesday.

I will not do a preseason poll. I hate them. They set up a ton of positional bias and, especially with 400+ teams in D3, there simply is no way to do a good one. The first poll will be based on games played prior to 9/11 and will be due to me on 9/13. That gives us roughly 2 weeks of games to start making judgements.

If you are interested, and I realize we are more than a month out and I will bring this up again in a few other threads as we get closer, please send me a PM. I hope we get our pollsters back from last year, as they did an excellent job, but if you want to join in, I'm always open to more!

While we are still a little over 2 weeks out, I have not gotten a very big response from people willing to participate this year. I think I had only 2 responses so far. If you are interested in participating, we will need at least 5 to make this worth doing. You can message me privately or just respond to this thread. See details below.



Guess it's time to revive this thread for the new season. If you are interested in participating, I will run the poll again if we get enough pollsters. My only caveat is that if you agree to participate you try your best to do it every week so that things are consistent. Also, you try to be on time because it's no fun for anyone if I have to track you down every week and pester you to get your votes in.

I'll probably run it the same as last year with the same deadlines, so the poll will include games that start before Sunday at midnight EST and will be due to me before Tuesday EST at midnight and I will try to post on Wednesday.

I will not do a preseason poll. I hate them. They set up a ton of positional bias and, especially with 400+ teams in D3, there simply is no way to do a good one. The first poll will be based on games played prior to 9/11 and will be due to me on 9/13. That gives us roughly 2 weeks of games to start making judgements.

If you are interested, and I realize we are more than a month out and I will bring this up again in a few other threads as we get closer, please send me a PM. I hope we get our pollsters back from last year, as they did an excellent job, but if you want to join in, I'm always open to more!

Quote from: jknezek on August 29, 2022, 12:42:48 PM
While we are still a little over 2 weeks out, I have not gotten a very big response from people willing to participate this year. I think I had only 2 responses so far. If you are interested in participating, we will need at least 5 to make this worth doing. You can message me privately or just respond to this thread. See details below.



Guess it's time to revive this thread for the new season. If you are interested in participating, I will run the poll again if we get enough pollsters. My only caveat is that if you agree to participate you try your best to do it every week so that things are consistent. Also, you try to be on time because it's no fun for anyone if I have to track you down every week and pester you to get your votes in.

I'll probably run it the same as last year with the same deadlines, so the poll will include games that start before Sunday at midnight EST and will be due to me before Tuesday EST at midnight and I will try to post on Wednesday.

I will not do a preseason poll. I hate them. They set up a ton of positional bias and, especially with 400+ teams in D3, there simply is no way to do a good one. The first poll will be based on games played prior to 9/11 and will be due to me on 9/13. That gives us roughly 2 weeks of games to start making judgements.

If you are interested, and I realize we are more than a month out and I will bring this up again in a few other threads as we get closer, please send me a PM. I hope we get our pollsters back from last year, as they did an excellent job, but if you want to join in, I'm always open to more!

Not sure how I will find the time, but I am in.

SC.

Quote from: SimpleCoach on August 29, 2022, 03:55:30 PM

Quote from: jknezek on August 29, 2022, 12:42:48 PM
While we are still a little over 2 weeks out, I have not gotten a very big response from people willing to participate this year. I think I had only 2 responses so far. If you are interested in participating, we will need at least 5 to make this worth doing. You can message me privately or just respond to this thread. See details below.



Guess it's time to revive this thread for the new season. If you are interested in participating, I will run the poll again if we get enough pollsters. My only caveat is that if you agree to participate you try your best to do it every week so that things are consistent. Also, you try to be on time because it's no fun for anyone if I have to track you down every week and pester you to get your votes in.

I'll probably run it the same as last year with the same deadlines, so the poll will include games that start before Sunday at midnight EST and will be due to me before Tuesday EST at midnight and I will try to post on Wednesday.

I will not do a preseason poll. I hate them. They set up a ton of positional bias and, especially with 400+ teams in D3, there simply is no way to do a good one. The first poll will be based on games played prior to 9/11 and will be due to me on 9/13. That gives us roughly 2 weeks of games to start making judgements.

If you are interested, and I realize we are more than a month out and I will bring this up again in a few other threads as we get closer, please send me a PM. I hope we get our pollsters back from last year, as they did an excellent job, but if you want to join in, I'm always open to more!

Not sure how I will find the time, but I am in.

SC.

Thanks SC. I'll let you know if we get enough people to make it work.

Well guys, we only had 3 people interested this year. So unless anyone else wants to step forward, I think we will skip it. 3 people just isn't enough viewpoints and if one misses a week, it's kind of useless. I think my minimum is 5, but I'd feel better around 6.

Excited to announce that we have 6 volunteers to once again participate in this poll! Hope to get the first ballot for next week, but I want to thank SimpleCoach, Ejay, Gregory Sager, Mid-Atlantic Fan, PaulNewman and College Soccer Observer for volunteering their time, research and opinions again this year.

Quote from: jknezek on September 12, 2022, 12:08:04 PM
Excited to announce that we have 6 volunteers to once again participate in this poll! Hope to get the first ballot for next week, but I want to thank SimpleCoach, Ejay, Gregory Sager, Mid-Atlantic Fan, PaulNewman and College Soccer Observer for volunteering their time, research and opinions again this year.

Some big names in Fandom right there.
Well done boys.
Please give these men some positive Karma!

Kind of jumped the gun a little bit.  This one was put together on a whim, so not my best work.  @PaulNewman ... gave a shout out to MSOE....

Around D3 (https://youtu.be/xc23QMmuiak)

And the fan poll returns! I want to really thank the voters. This poll takes a lot of work, and with the effort to be part of the D3soccer poll, that work has to be done in a really short period of time.

Some details about the poll this week, the change column is from the last poll we did last year. It's pretty much useless EXCEPT it's interesting to see how few carry overs there are right now. We only did a Top 20 last year, this is a Top 25, but to have fewer than 1/2 of the pre-playoff Top 20 make it to our Top 25 a few weeks into this season is interesting.

The first team to not get all 6 voters is Carnegie Mellon on a tie at 11 with 5 of 6 voters putting them on the ballot. Clarkson at 16 is the last team to be ranked on all 6 ballots. 39 teams earned a spot on at least one ballot. Drew, with a single vote in the 11 spot, has the highest vote not to make the Top 25.

Anyway, I hope you guys enjoy the poll this year and give some shout outs to our voters. If you've never tried to do something like this, you can't imagine how difficult it can be to do well. And I'm very pleased with our voters, all carryovers from last year except me, who do a lot of work to make this a credible and knowledgeable effort.



Also Receiving Votes:
St. Thomas (TX) (17) , Christopher Newport (16) , Drew (15) , Middlebury (15) , Cortland State (13) , Franklin and Marshall (12) , Montclair State (12) , Coast Guard (11) , Willamette (10) , North Central (IL) (4) , UW-Eau Claire (4) , Western Connecticut (4) , MSOE (3) , Catholic (1)

Newly Ranked: Wesleyan, Johns Hopkins, Stevens, Bowdoin, Carnegie Mellon, Gettysburg, Clarkson, Oneonta State, Pacific Lutheran, Luther, Denison, Hamilton, Gustavus Adolphus, Babson, Loras, Rochester
Dropped Out: Washington University (Prev:3), Trinity (TX) (Prev:5), Ohio Wesleyan (Prev:8), St. Olaf (Prev:10), Otterbein (Prev:12), Montclair State (Prev:13), Cortland State (Prev:15), Emory (Prev:16), John Carroll (Prev:17), New York University (Prev:18), North Central (IL) (Prev:18)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 25 = 25th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, Paul Newman, jknezek

In case anybody's wondering, I'm the one who low-balled North Park at #5. We'll have to wait and see if the NPU administration will allow me to set foot on campus to call the game tonight. ;)

Five of my picks were on-the-nose as far as the fan poll goes. But I was a serious outlier on several of the NESCAC teams; I'm the one who picked Wesleyan, Conn C., Tufts, and Hamilton higher than everybody else, in some cases much higher. Never let it be said that my living 730 miles west of the NESCAC's westernmost outpost has given me a case of regional bias.

Four of my 25 picks failed to make the Top 25. The highest-ranked team I didn't have on my ballot is #18 Pacific Lutheran.

I like the diversity of 39 different teams appearing on at least one ballot, which is a lot for a poll that only has six voters. I think it's indicative not only of a lack of groupthink but of the breadth of competitive teams in D3, particularly this early in the season.

And let the debating begin.

My top 5 were Messiah, NPU, Chicago, Kenyon, Calvin.

My second 5 give were Hopkins, Stevens, Wesleyan, Oneonta St, Tufts..

My biggest disagreements are CMU...cannot believe how high folks voted the Tartans and given their anemic schedule to put it mildly that last second goal vs JCU is working very hard.  Same with Gettysburg for me...best results a win over .500 St Mary's and a draw with Catholic.  I could see somewhere between 20-25 for the latter but 17 (D3soccer) and 15 (fan poll) seem really high.  As for CMU, I think UWEC, Drew, MSOC, Western CT, etc have had tougher schedules.  I think we can now safely dub CMU as the "Rochester of Great Lakes."

Clarkson in my mind I caved to slot in at 24 so 14 and 16 seem too high.

I did not include Hamilton who has to show me a little more, and I instead included Midd at 19 who I think got overly punished compared to the other NESCAC expected top dogs.

Speaking of NESCAC, I had Wesleyan at 8, Tufts at 10, Conn at 11, Amherst at 13, Bowdoin at 14, and then Midd at 19.

I had W&L at 12.

For misses compared to the other polls, very, very surprised Luther and Pac Lutheran omitted.  I had Pac Luth at 15 and Luther at 17.  Also St Thomas at 18, CNU at 21, North Central at 22.

I have pumped Denison more than anyone, but for me the Big Red were just short and based on results so far need to do a little more.

Shakiest pick for me I think was MSOE at 25, and by that point there are like 15 teams you could choose. 

I think you have to remember that 39 teams appeared on the ballots. So you look at W&L at 10th, they had 1 10th place vote and everything else was lower. But because there was so little consensus, their overall rank ties their highest vote, not their mean vote. You see a lot of schools that "outperformed" their votes because the votes had such a large disparity. CMU, Conn College and Tufts, tied at 11, had votes ranging from 4 to not ranked. Drew got 15pts from one voter, but no one else even listed them.

Really, outside the top 8, who had a low vote of 13 amongst them and only 5 votes total 10th or below, there was very little consensus, and I don't think that's unusual this early in the season. We had voters focused on total wins, we had voters who focused on one or two quality results, we had voters focused on SoS. The 6 of us generally took some pretty disparate tactics in deciding our ballot.

I suspect, as the season goes on, that disparity will be significantly reduced.

I'm clearly getting confused....we went from no polls to three (actually four) -- D3soccer, fan poll, my own ballot, and Coaches poll.

Anyway, the fan poll did have Pac Luth and Luther in there.  The teams I included that did not make the fall poll were St. Thomas, Midd, Montclair, CNU, N. Central, MSOE.

Quote from: PaulNewman on September 20, 2022, 11:07:28 AM
Shakiest pick for me I think was MSOE at 25, and by that point there are like 15 teams you could choose.

I watched MSOE for the first time yesterday, and, yeah, that's not a Top 25 team at all. The Raiders had to engineer a miracle comeback with three goals in the final 21:45 just to draw level with a very unimpressive Elmhurst side.

Quote from: Gregory Sager on September 20, 2022, 12:51:32 PM

Quote from: PaulNewman on September 20, 2022, 11:07:28 AM
Shakiest pick for me I think was MSOE at 25, and by that point there are like 15 teams you could choose.

I watched MSOE for the first time yesterday, and, yeah, that's not a Top 25 team at all. The Raiders had to engineer a miracle comeback with three goals in the final 21:45 just to draw level with a very unimpressive Elmhurst side.

I guess.  A lot of teams have looked unimpressive.  They did beat UW-P who waxed Wheaton, and also beat a decent Dubuque squad.  In hindsight maybe would change that last slot for UWEC or Drew but also of course voted before the draw last night.

Wheaton's dramatically down from its usual standards (perhaps having to do with WC's off-season coaching change), and Dubuque is the proverbial box of chocolates this season.

I'm not impressed by Drew's gaudy record thus far, but if I was forced to reward either Drew or MSOE on my ballot I'd go with the Rangers over the Raiders.

One other fun comment on the disparity... d3soccer.com's poll had 31 teams in the receiving votes category. So they had 56 teams receive at least one vote. Now I'm not sure how many voters they had, way more than the fan poll, but that's a pretty big disparity as well.

However, looking at a comparison of the 2 polls, we shared 21 of the 25 teams. The first team that was unlisted was D3Soccer having Montclair State at 16, while only 3 of our 6 had them in the poll and none higher than 20th. We listed Pac Lu and Luther at 18 and 19. Pac Lu tied Willamette late on Sunday night. Regardless, D3soccer had them as their 3rd team RV while Luther came in at their 6th team in the RV category.

The D3soccer poll then had St. Thomas (TX) at 21. They were our first team in the RV section, with 4 Fan voters putting them between 19th and 24th. Then for the last 2, D3Soccer went with F&M and Lynchburg. F&M had one fan voter putting them at 14th but the rest passed, and Lynchburg got no fan voters. Being 3-0-3 wasn't enough, though one tie is Messiah's only blemish of the season so far.

The Fan poll wrapped up with Loras and Rochester, with Rochester being the second RV team for D3Soccer and Loras falling quite a bit later. Loras only appeared on 2 fan ballots, but at 12 and 18, while Rochester appeared on 3 ballots 19,20, and 21.

I thought our fan poll was pretty good, but the D3 poll has a real head scratcher for me.  Who gave Gettysburg a first place vote???

Quote from: Ejay on September 20, 2022, 02:25:06 PM
I thought our fan poll was pretty good, but the D3 poll has a real head scratcher for me.  Who gave Gettysburg a first place vote???

I try to mix it up.... albeit illogically... but that is certainly a bridge too far for even me.

SC.

Honestly, due to the size of D3, the difference between 15th and 25th is negligible and unknowable. I get concerned if we are seeing teams at 1 and 20, and I think in the fan poll it's interesting that Conn College got a 4 and a no vote. That's about where I start to get a little antsy.

But so long as there is consensus on the top 5 or so teams, near consensus through about 10, and valid reasons for 11-25, that's about the best you are going to do.

When looking at these teams, if they haven't played recently and have no common opponents, there simply isn't a great way to say one team is 15 and one team is 25. There are 30-50 teams in any one week that can make a legitimate case for 10-25. While those numbers go down as the season goes on, they probably don't go down by as much as we wish, and it's hardly clear cut who is 15-25 the week they set the tournament field.

^ Agreed.

Also Receiving Votes:
Cortland State (20) , Franklin and Marshall (18) , UW-Eau Claire (16) , North Central (IL) (12) , Coast Guard (11) , Montclair State (9) , St. Lawrence (8) , Babson (7) , Denison (7) , Lynchburg (7) , Western Connecticut (6) , Willamette (4) , Luther (3) , MSOE (3) , Williams (1)

Newly Ranked: St. Thomas (TX), Middlebury, Drew, Catholic, Christopher Newport
Dropped Out: Pacific Lutheran (Prev:18), Luther (Prev:19), Denison (Prev:20), Babson (Prev:23), Loras (Prev:24)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 25 = 25th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, Paul Newman, jknezek, Mid-Atlantic Fan

Couple things this week. Hamilton with a big move up, Bowdoin with the big move down. Some shuffling at the top, but the top 4 are on a tier to themselves with those 4 teams getting all 1st-4th place votes in various orders. The next tier is similar with Stevens and Wesleyan flopping around Johns Hopkins.

The two lowest votes for the Top 10 teams are a 20 for Calvin and a 19 for Hamilton. By and large, the top 10 was stable except for Hamilton and Bowdoin basically swapping places.

Gettysburg at 13 is the first team to not appear on all 7 ballots, while St. Thomas (TX) at 17 is the last team to appear on all 7 ballots.

7 NESCAC teams appear in the poll. 6 of the 7 are in pairs, with Bowdoin being the only NESCAC not sitting immediately before or after a NESCAC school. The sheer number of ties and intertwining wins and losses in the NESCAC seems difficult to untangle.

We have 15 teams in the RV category. That's up from 14 last week, but we have one more voter this week as well. 20% of the poll changed out this week, with 5 new teams. The highest ranking team to drop out was 18 last week (Pac Lu), and the highest ranking debutante is St. Thomas (TX) at 17.

The greatest voter disparity goes to Carnegie Mellon, who was 6th on one ballot and unranked on one ballot. One team made the poll on only 4 ballots (Clarkson), while 2 teams made the poll on only 3 ballots (Drew and Catholic).