Here is the way too early Bracket Projection - www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411
+1! A good projection for week #6.
Here is my new bracket projection: www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411
#1 Seeds: NCC, Mount Union, Johns Hopkins, Trinity(TX)
#2 Seeds: Wartburg, Randolph Macon, Susquehanna, Linfield
Thoughts?
Thanks for doing this, Mr. Mike!
NCC getting UWW in the second round seems a lot like when NCC was sent to Mount in round 2.
Quote from: D3fanboy on October 23, 2023, 07:19:41 AM
NCC getting UWW in the second round seems a lot like when NCC was sent to Mount in round 2.
...that happens all of the time in the Texas sub-bracket...
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 23, 2023, 08:04:29 AM
Quote from: D3fanboy on October 23, 2023, 07:19:41 AM
NCC getting UWW in the second round seems a lot like when NCC was sent to Mount in round 2.
...that happens all of the time in the Texas sub-bracket...
Indeed. This possible bracket appears to be about the best Trinity could hope for. Fingers crossed.
What is your rationalization for who are the 1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds? (Not that they are the top 4, but how your ranked them 1-4?)
Quote from: D3fanboy on October 23, 2023, 07:19:41 AM
NCC getting UWW in the second round seems a lot like when NCC was sent to Mount in round 2.
If UWW ends up a 1 loss Pool C, this isn't an unlikely scenario. If there are 3 WIAC teams in the tourney, 1 of them is likely going to be in the NCC bracket.
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on October 23, 2023, 01:12:39 PM
What is your rationalization for who are the 1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds? (Not that they are the top 4, but how your ranked them 1-4?)
Regarding the overall #1 Seeds, I can confidently say that NCC & Johns Hopkins should be locks as #1 seeds, if both win out. Each will have a strong resume due to good SOS. NCC will most likely be 2-0 against RR opponents, Johns Hopkins will be 2-0 against RR opponents, possible 3-0 if CNU makes it onto crowded R2. Mount Union is an interesting case, as last year we all found out that they were the #2 seed. This was due to the OAC not performing as well in OOC. This year, Mount needs to beat John Carroll and have Marietta to win out, to potentially pick up two RR wins. I don't foresee them getting a third due to both the NCAC & MIAA teams doing well. If the committee is consistent, I'd suspect Mount would be a #2 seed in a potential #1 seeded Susquehanna bracket, similar to what they were last year in Delaware Valley's bracket.
Other potential #1 seeds include Linfield, Trinity (TX), UW-L, and Wartburg. Wartburg is traditionally matchup with MIAC/WIAC #1 Seed, but this could flip with the WIAC champ having a loss. UW-L needs to win out and potentially could have two RR wins against UW-W and UW-RF (if 8-2), they could be looked at similar to St. John's (although St. John's was able to revenge their earlier season loss in conference championship) and garner a #1 seed. UW-L is an interesting case because if Hardin-Simmons wins out, they'll have an argument as well. Trinity best case scenario is for both Berry and UMHB to win out, possibly getting UMHB RR. Linfield needs to beat Whitworth and for that to be Whitworth's only loss, thus becoming RR in a crowded R6.
In theory, you can place a Wartburg, UW-L, UW-W or any other strong candidate in the Travel bracket as a #1 seed. However, the benefit of potential having home field advantage through semi's could be short lived, because that #1 seed may end up playing Linfield in the second round regardless. I don't see the committee breaking up the southern quadrant of the SAA/ASC Champ, Belhaven/Berry (assuming Berry gets in). If Berry doesn't get in, that throws a huge wrinkle in the travel scenario as that would add another flight, which would force the committee to fly a team into the southern bracket (i.e. St. Thomas to Berry in 2017 and Huntingdon to Wheaton in 2016) A lot of football left.
Here is my updated bracket: www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411
#1 Seeds - NCC, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins, Mount Union
#2 Seeds - UWL, Hardin-Simmons, Grove City, Susquehanna
At Large Selections - UW-W, Wheaton, Union, and St. John's - St. John's significant SOS and 1-2 in RR, places it above the likes of Muhlenberg with a average SOS and 0-1 RR, Coe 1-1 RR and okay SOS and Berry weak SOS and 0-1 RR. Berry needs Huntingdon to win out to add a RR win, which depending on how the committee views each criteria.
Also, what some may see in this bracket is Brevard replacing Belhaven. As such Brevard being matched up with R-MC within the travel bracket, because I couldn't complete the quadrant as Brevard likely matchups were CNU, R-MC, and MSJ, but all four couldn't go to each other.
Updated the link!
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 29, 2023, 03:23:44 AM
Here is my updated bracket: www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411
#1 Seeds - NCC, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins, Mount Union
#2 Seeds - UWL, Hardin-Simmons, Grove City, Susquehanna
At Large Selections - UW-W, Wheaton, Union, and St. John's - St. John's significant SOS and 1-2 in RR, places it above the likes of Muhlenberg with a average SOS and 0-1 RR, Coe 1-1 RR and okay SOS and Berry weak SOS and 0-1 RR. Berry needs Huntingdon to win out to add a RR win, which depending on how the committee views each criteria.
Also, what some may see in this bracket is Brevard replacing Belhaven. As such Brevard being matched up with R-MC within the travel bracket, because I couldn't complete the quadrant as Brevard likely matchups were CNU, R-MC, and MSJ, but all four couldn't go to each other.
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 29, 2023, 09:58:26 PM
Updated the link!
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 29, 2023, 03:23:44 AM
Here is my updated bracket: https://officepoolstop.com/Players-Only/MyBracket
#1 Seeds - NCC, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins, Mount Union
#2 Seeds - UWL, Hardin-Simmons, Grove City, Susquehanna
At Large Selections - UW-W, Wheaton, Union, and St. John's - St. John's significant SOS and 1-2 in RR, places it above the likes of Muhlenberg with a average SOS and 0-1 RR, Coe 1-1 RR and okay SOS and Berry weak SOS and 0-1 RR. Berry needs Huntingdon to win out to add a RR win, which depending on how the committee views each criteria.
Also, what some may see in this bracket is Brevard replacing Belhaven. As such Brevard being matched up with R-MC within the travel bracket, because I couldn't complete the quadrant as Brevard likely matchups were CNU, R-MC, and MSJ, but all four couldn't go to each other.
I clicked the updated link and it is asking me to sign in.
Curious, you must see Cortland beating IC?
I feel like that's the only way HSU can get a 2, what with the Endicott results.
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on October 30, 2023, 07:42:15 AM
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 29, 2023, 09:58:26 PM
Updated the link!
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 29, 2023, 03:23:44 AM
Here is my updated bracket: https://officepoolstop.com/Players-Only/MyBracket
#1 Seeds - NCC, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins, Mount Union
#2 Seeds - UWL, Hardin-Simmons, Grove City, Susquehanna
At Large Selections - UW-W, Wheaton, Union, and St. John's - St. John's significant SOS and 1-2 in RR, places it above the likes of Muhlenberg with a average SOS and 0-1 RR, Coe 1-1 RR and okay SOS and Berry weak SOS and 0-1 RR. Berry needs Huntingdon to win out to add a RR win, which depending on how the committee views each criteria.
Also, what some may see in this bracket is Brevard replacing Belhaven. As such Brevard being matched up with R-MC within the travel bracket, because I couldn't complete the quadrant as Brevard likely matchups were CNU, R-MC, and MSJ, but all four couldn't go to each other.
I clicked the updated link and it is asking me to sign in.
Should be updated now
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 30, 2023, 12:33:59 PM
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on October 30, 2023, 07:42:15 AM
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 29, 2023, 09:58:26 PM
Updated the link!
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 29, 2023, 03:23:44 AM
Here is my updated bracket: https://officepoolstop.com/Players-Only/MyBracket
#1 Seeds - NCC, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins, Mount Union
#2 Seeds - UWL, Hardin-Simmons, Grove City, Susquehanna
At Large Selections - UW-W, Wheaton, Union, and St. John's - St. John's significant SOS and 1-2 in RR, places it above the likes of Muhlenberg with a average SOS and 0-1 RR, Coe 1-1 RR and okay SOS and Berry weak SOS and 0-1 RR. Berry needs Huntingdon to win out to add a RR win, which depending on how the committee views each criteria.
Also, what some may see in this bracket is Brevard replacing Belhaven. As such Brevard being matched up with R-MC within the travel bracket, because I couldn't complete the quadrant as Brevard likely matchups were CNU, R-MC, and MSJ, but all four couldn't go to each other.
I clicked the updated link and it is asking me to sign in.
Should be updated now
Nope, same result for me. I tried Google, Google Incognito and Edge.
Quote from: IC798891 on October 30, 2023, 10:24:50 AM
Curious, you must see Cortland beating IC?
I feel like that's the only way HSU can get a 2, what with the Endicott results.
Regarding Cortland and IC, that game is always a pick'em, both could have 2 RR wins come Selection Sunday regardless of result. Cortland winning out and possibly having Delaware Valley, Brockport, and Ithaca. That would lead me to have them as a #2 seed. Even with the loss, the argument would be the placement. What I found out is that although we have our 500 mile rule, the committee stresses experience for athletes. The committee would place teams by distance when it comes to the hypothetical seeds of 3-6. The NE schools would be package with a top R1/R2 team as in my example Johns Hopkins, much similar to Ithaca last year. Also, in my scenario, I tried not place teams in the same quadrant that have played during the season (although the committee is at no liberty to do that). Cortland wins out, they would have an argument with a potential undefeated Grove City. I don't see them jumping a undefeated Mount Union (regardless of criteria). With that if they were moved to #2, you put them at the Grove City spot. You can also switch the Cortland Quad with the Susquehanna Quad.
Regarding Hardin-Simmons, you have to remember, the committee is going to look at each RR "equally", Hardin-Simmons beat UW-L at UW-L. It's not going to matter though, because Hardin-Simmons will be facing Trinity (TX) if everything holds true. Hardin-Simmons is currently positioned 11 spots higher than Trinity at the moment in terms of SOS. The argument would be which team gets the home game. Does the committee value Trinity win at Berry over H-SC win over UW-L or does the committee value Trinity's loss to St.John's more than Hardin-Simmons loss to Endicott. Do they factor in Hardin-Simmons injuries? I would value Hardin-Simmons win over UW-L. I'd still give them a #2 over an undefeated 9-win Linfield as well.
So, both Gusties & Johnnies. Which is the A & which is the C?
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 30, 2023, 01:16:23 PM
So, both Gusties & Johnnies. Which is the A & which is the C?
Gusties - Pool A and Johnnies - Pool C. The Royals and Gusties are currently interchangeable at the moment. This scenario probably benefits Bethel more than anything. Regarding bracket placement, the argument would be to put Johnnies in the quadrant with the WIAC schools and Royals in the NCC quadrant.
Another scenario which may be more cost effective is to fly Brevard (current USAC leader) to DePauw and have Grove City host Wheaton in the Mount Union quadrant and move R-MC as #2 seed in Hopkins bracket and host CNU. That's a more likely scenario if committee dings the PAC "Coaches" for playing a closed schedule. IMHO, I'd fly Brevard to DePauw and have Grove City host Wheaton.
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 30, 2023, 01:14:54 PM
Regarding Cortland and IC, that game is always a pick'em, both could have 2 RR wins come Selection Sunday regardless of result. Cortland winning out and possibly having Delaware Valley, Brockport, and Ithaca. That would lead me to have them as a #2 seed. Even with the loss, the argument would be the placement. What I found out is that although we have our 500 mile rule, the committee stresses experience for athletes. The committee would place teams by distance when it comes to the hypothetical seeds of 3-6. The NE schools would be package with a top R1/R2 team as in my example Johns Hopkins, much similar to Ithaca last year. Also, in my scenario, I tried not place teams in the same quadrant that have played during the season (although the committee is at no liberty to do that). Cortland wins out, they would have an argument with a potential undefeated Grove City. I don't see them jumping a undefeated Mount Union (regardless of criteria). With that if they were moved to #2, you put them at the Grove City spot. You can also switch the Cortland Quad with the Susquehanna Quad.
Regarding Hardin-Simmons, you have to remember, the committee is going to look at each RR "equally", Hardin-Simmons beat UW-L at UW-L. It's not going to matter though, because Hardin-Simmons will be facing Trinity (TX) if everything holds true. Hardin-Simmons is currently positioned 11 spots higher than Trinity at the moment in terms of SOS. The argument would be which team gets the home game. Does the committee value Trinity win at Berry over H-SC win over UW-L or does the committee value Trinity's loss to St.John's more than Hardin-Simmons loss to Endicott. Do they factor in Hardin-Simmons injuries? I would value Hardin-Simmons win over UW-L. I'd still give them a #2 over an undefeated 9-win Linfield as well.
Right, but if Ithaca beats Cortland, then they're 9-1. Ithaca's SOS will dip with the last two weeks, but still be very very high. The Bombers will probably have several results against RR teams. A worst case 9-1 Hopkins will be ranked, and a worst case 8-2 Endicott has a good chance as well. They've also got wins over RPI, Hobart, and Union, at least one of which would probably be ranked, even if they were all 8-2. I don't think Cortland will be if IC beats them (I think they will lose to Brockport this week)
But a 9-1 Bombers team could have a top 10 SOS, and a 2-1 record vs RR opponents. That seems like a pretty good resume for a #2 seed
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on October 30, 2023, 12:48:23 PM
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 30, 2023, 12:33:59 PM
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on October 30, 2023, 07:42:15 AM
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 29, 2023, 09:58:26 PM
Updated the link!
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 29, 2023, 03:23:44 AM
Here is my updated bracket: https://officepoolstop.com/Players-Only/MyBracket
#1 Seeds - NCC, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins, Mount Union
#2 Seeds - UWL, Hardin-Simmons, Grove City, Susquehanna
At Large Selections - UW-W, Wheaton, Union, and St. John's - St. John's significant SOS and 1-2 in RR, places it above the likes of Muhlenberg with a average SOS and 0-1 RR, Coe 1-1 RR and okay SOS and Berry weak SOS and 0-1 RR. Berry needs Huntingdon to win out to add a RR win, which depending on how the committee views each criteria.
Also, what some may see in this bracket is Brevard replacing Belhaven. As such Brevard being matched up with R-MC within the travel bracket, because I couldn't complete the quadrant as Brevard likely matchups were CNU, R-MC, and MSJ, but all four couldn't go to each other.
I clicked the updated link and it is asking me to sign in.
Should be updated now
Nope, same result for me. I tried Google, Google Incognito and Edge.
Also can't get in.
Quote from: D3Navy on October 30, 2023, 04:25:49 PM
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on October 30, 2023, 12:48:23 PM
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 30, 2023, 12:33:59 PM
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on October 30, 2023, 07:42:15 AM
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 29, 2023, 09:58:26 PM
Updated the link!
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 29, 2023, 03:23:44 AM
Here is my updated bracket: https://officepoolstop.com/Players-Only/MyBracket
#1 Seeds - NCC, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins, Mount Union
#2 Seeds - UWL, Hardin-Simmons, Grove City, Susquehanna
At Large Selections - UW-W, Wheaton, Union, and St. John's - St. John's significant SOS and 1-2 in RR, places it above the likes of Muhlenberg with a average SOS and 0-1 RR, Coe 1-1 RR and okay SOS and Berry weak SOS and 0-1 RR. Berry needs Huntingdon to win out to add a RR win, which depending on how the committee views each criteria.
Also, what some may see in this bracket is Brevard replacing Belhaven. As such Brevard being matched up with R-MC within the travel bracket, because I couldn't complete the quadrant as Brevard likely matchups were CNU, R-MC, and MSJ, but all four couldn't go to each other.
I clicked the updated link and it is asking me to sign in.
Should be updated now
Nope, same result for me. I tried Google, Google Incognito and Edge.
Also can't get in.
www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 30, 2023, 04:42:10 PM
Quote from: D3Navy on October 30, 2023, 04:25:49 PM
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on October 30, 2023, 12:48:23 PM
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 30, 2023, 12:33:59 PM
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on October 30, 2023, 07:42:15 AM
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 29, 2023, 09:58:26 PM
Updated the link!
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 29, 2023, 03:23:44 AM
Here is my updated bracket: https://officepoolstop.com/Players-Only/MyBracket
#1 Seeds - NCC, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins, Mount Union
#2 Seeds - UWL, Hardin-Simmons, Grove City, Susquehanna
At Large Selections - UW-W, Wheaton, Union, and St. John's - St. John's significant SOS and 1-2 in RR, places it above the likes of Muhlenberg with a average SOS and 0-1 RR, Coe 1-1 RR and okay SOS and Berry weak SOS and 0-1 RR. Berry needs Huntingdon to win out to add a RR win, which depending on how the committee views each criteria.
Also, what some may see in this bracket is Brevard replacing Belhaven. As such Brevard being matched up with R-MC within the travel bracket, because I couldn't complete the quadrant as Brevard likely matchups were CNU, R-MC, and MSJ, but all four couldn't go to each other.
I clicked the updated link and it is asking me to sign in.
Should be updated now
Nope, same result for me. I tried Google, Google Incognito and Edge.
Also can't get in.
www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411
Thanks, Mike!
I have a buddy teaching at Chapman and they'd come to Trinity if they meet. May your projections be true!
Tom
Here is the updated bracket - www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411.
#1 Seeds - NCC, Mount Union, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins
#2 Seeds - Linfield, Grove City Cortland State, Aurora UW-L, Susquehanna
Pool C - UWW, Wheaton, Union, and St. John's (If Bethel wins, they get in)
This bracket is one of the unique brackets as the Travel bracket is the NCC bracket. The question is does the committee value SOS or wins when discussing #1 seeds, that would give a WIAC school a #1 seed rather than Wartburg, thus probably giving a WIAC school the Travel bracket and putting Wartburg as the #2 seed in the NCC bracket. Thoughts?
Edit - Gave Cortland and UW-L #2 Seeds.
So LaCrosse or UWW would be a 3 seed-one in Wartburg bracket and the other in NCC bracket? Wow.
Quote from: sju56321 on November 05, 2023, 08:32:58 PM
So LaCrosse or UWW would be a 3 seed-one in Wartburg bracket and the other in NCC bracket? Wow.
I will adjust my projected bracket after the Regional Rankings are provided later this week. Those rankings will provide clarity. I will also try to avoid rematches in the 1st round and 2nd rounds as long as it is seeding appropriate (not including travel bracket). With the 500 mile rule back in play, I believe a WIAC team (UWW or UWL) will play either NCC or Wartburg in the 2nd round. The only thing that may change is the higher ranked WIAC team may/should host the 1st two rounds. Looking at last year UWW hosted a 1 loss Aurora, while a one loss UW-L was sent on the road to Wartburg. Another option depending on ranking is to have Aurora and Alma face off in a 4/5 and UW-L host MIAC Champion in the quadrant. While St. John's (Pool C) faces UW-W at UW-W and the winner plays the winner of Wartburg/Ill Coll.
Edit: I just went ahead and adjusted based upon aforementioned scenario. Thanks SJU
Out here on the travel archipelago, this is a good year to give an undefeated NWC Champ a #2 seed.
I think your bracket looks good with your conference winners and pool candidates. The top seeds are questionable to me. I imagine that Johns Hopkins will capture one with the 4th highest SOS, 10-0 and Conference champ...2 RR wins. If it is done as nameless schools and using the criteria to rank, I think they deserve a spot there. So my prediction is Hopkins, UW-L, NCC and Mount Union. I think NCC is the top seed overall, and Mount is probably #2. So Wartburg goes with Mount and UW-L goes with NCC.
Looking at last years bracket, NCC got paired up with all east located teams, except lake Forest in the first round. Mount seemed to have the east and mid atlantic teams.
St. Johns was pretty regional with central and northern teams.
The last bracket was mostly island teams with Bethel and Wheaton.
I think the committee tries to, as much as possible, mix matchups in the first round and keep their eyes on flights. They probably start with the teams are flying regardless. Like Linfield and SCIAC. Either they fly or someone flies to them. I think after that, flights are what they are. They can't spend too much time trying to predict who is going win in the 2nd round. For instance last year, Bethel beat Wheaton, and then flew to Linfield... If Linfield had beaten Bethel, then there would have been a nother flight.
All of this is to say, I think the pairings in your bracket will change because the comittee will have a few teams in brackets where they dont fit the geographical mold
Quote from: Captainred81 on November 08, 2023, 09:48:07 AM
I think your bracket looks good with your conference winners and pool candidates. The top seeds are questionable to me. I imagine that Johns Hopkins will capture one with the 4th highest SOS, 10-0 and Conference champ...2 RR wins. If it is done as nameless schools and using the criteria to rank, I think they deserve a spot there. So my prediction is Hopkins, UW-L, NCC and Mount Union. I think NCC is the top seed overall, and Mount is probably #2. So Wartburg goes with Mount and UW-L goes with NCC.
Looking at last years bracket, NCC got paired up with all east located teams, except lake Forest in the first round. Mount seemed to have the east and mid atlantic teams.
St. Johns was pretty regional with central and northern teams.
The last bracket was mostly island teams with Bethel and Wheaton.
I think the committee tries to, as much as possible, mix matchups in the first round and keep their eyes on flights. They probably start with the teams are flying regardless. Like Linfield and SCIAC. Either they fly or someone flies to them. I think after that, flights are what they are. They can't spend too much time trying to predict who is going win in the 2nd round. For instance last year, Bethel beat Wheaton, and then flew to Linfield... If Linfield had beaten Bethel, then there would have been a nother flight.
All of this is to say, I think the pairings in your bracket will change because the comittee will have a few teams in brackets where they dont fit the geographical mold
I actually think Wartburg should be highly considered for a #1 Seed with potentially having 4 RR wins with wins over Monmouth (7-2), Coe (8-1), Central (7-2), and Bethel (7-2). I feel as though no one wants to give them the nod. I see a lot of penciling in UW-L as #1, which is debatable, but H2H and the same record as Hardin-Simmons, I find it difficult to just pencil them in. Last year, we saw St. John's as #1, but they had a chance to revenge their in-season loss, UW-L does not. I would have North Central, Mount Union, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins/Susquehanna, UW-L as possible #1 seed candidates.
Wart's undefeated record plus 4 RRR builds a strong case for overall #1.
St Johns last year was fools gold. The committee took the bait on SOS. As is usually the case, a correction the other way is in the Cards (pun intended). NCC and Mt Union both play in a 10 team round robin conference and SOS will always be near .500. The committee knows this and will understand the undefeated previous year Stagg participants should be 1 and 2 seeds and on the opposite side of the bracket from each other.
Quote from: USee on November 08, 2023, 05:15:06 PM
St Johns last year was fools gold. The committee took the bait on SOS. As is usually the case, a correction the other way is in the Cards (pun intended). NCC and Mt Union both play in a 10 team round robin conference and SOS will always be near .500. The committee knows this and will understand the undefeated previous year Stagg participants should be 1 and 2 seeds and on the opposite side of the bracket from each other.
If the "committee knows this" then they are deliberately violating the NCAA's own published criteria.
Not true. Win % is a primary criteria, as is RRO and SOS. they can use those tools to come to that conclusion. I also strongly suspect people will be surprised and there will not be many 2 loss teams, if any, picked this year in Pool C. St Johns maybe in round 3/4.
The other thing I would point out is that Regional Rank is not necessarily correlated to seeding. For NCC and Mt Union, the "previous championship results" criteria is applicable to seeding not RR. So after NCC wins this weekend over Augie they pick up another RRO, close the gap with Wartburg. I still think NCC is R5 #2 but after your apply "previous year" criteria in the seeding process, the top seeds are going to be NCC, Mt Union, Wartburg, and one of JHU, UWL, UWW and those are the 4 you will see in the corners of the bracket. All of this is completely within the written criteria by the NCAA.
Here is my updated bracket based upon new RR - www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411.
#1 Seeds - North Central, Mount Union, Wartburg, and Johns Hopkins
#2 Seeds - Susquehanna, Linfield, UW-L, and Cortland State
North Central as in previous years and based upon previous years playoffs will have the #1 overall seed and host throughout the playoffs and be bracketed with Johns Hopkins Regional. Although Wartburg will have one of the best resume's, Mount Union got the overall #2 #1 seed, as such hosting the "weaker" travel bracket. Wartburg will have a much easier 1st round game this year, but will have the toughest road to the semi's solely due to regionality. Another thing of note, due to Belhaven not having a travel partner, I flew them into Alliance. I tried to setup the bracket so that we avoid rematches the 1st two rounds, but the committee is not obligated to do that and I expect to see a couple of rematches in the 2nd round this year.
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on November 09, 2023, 10:45:23 PM
Here is my updated bracket based upon new RR - www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411.
#1 Seeds - North Central, Mount Union, Wartburg, and Johns Hopkins
#2 Seeds - Susquehanna, Linfield, UW-L, and Cortland State
North Central as in previous years and based upon previous years playoffs will have the #1 overall seed and host throughout the playoffs and be bracketed with Johns Hopkins Regional. Although Wartburg will have one of the best resume's, Mount Union got the overall #2 #1 seed, as such hosting the "weaker" travel bracket. Wartburg will have a much easier 1st round game this year, but will have the toughest road to the semi's solely due to regionality. Another thing of note, due to Belhaven not having a travel partner, I flew them into Alliance. I tried to setup the bracket so that we avoid rematches the 1st two rounds, but the committee is not obligated to do that and I expect to see a couple of rematches in the 2nd round this year.
Do I count three 1st round flights? (Are we still at 500 miles? I did not see the answer in the FAQ's.)
Chapman to Linfield
Belhaven to UMU
MSJ to UW-L
Why not fly Belhaven to UW-L and drive MSJ to UMU? Two flights
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 09, 2023, 11:03:32 PM
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on November 09, 2023, 10:45:23 PM
Here is my updated bracket based upon new RR - www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411.
#1 Seeds - North Central, Mount Union, Wartburg, and Johns Hopkins
#2 Seeds - Susquehanna, Linfield, UW-L, and Cortland State
North Central as in previous years and based upon previous years playoffs will have the #1 overall seed and host throughout the playoffs and be bracketed with Johns Hopkins Regional. Although Wartburg will have one of the best resume's, Mount Union got the overall #2 #1 seed, as such hosting the "weaker" travel bracket. Wartburg will have a much easier 1st round game this year, but will have the toughest road to the semi's solely due to regionality. Another thing of note, due to Belhaven not having a travel partner, I flew them into Alliance. I tried to setup the bracket so that we avoid rematches the 1st two rounds, but the committee is not obligated to do that and I expect to see a couple of rematches in the 2nd round this year.
Do I count three 1st round flights? (Are we still at 500 miles? I did not see the answer in the FAQ's.)
Chapman to Linfield
Belhaven to UMU
MSJ to UW-L
Why not fly Belhaven to UW-L and drive MSJ to UMU? Two flights
It saves to keep all flight oriented teams in the same bracket. In your example, if Belhaven were to win first two rounds, that's an extra flight 3rd round.
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on November 09, 2023, 11:06:58 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 09, 2023, 11:03:32 PM
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on November 09, 2023, 10:45:23 PM
Here is my updated bracket based upon new RR - www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411.
#1 Seeds - North Central, Mount Union, Wartburg, and Johns Hopkins
#2 Seeds - Susquehanna, Linfield, UW-L, and Cortland State
North Central as in previous years and based upon previous years playoffs will have the #1 overall seed and host throughout the playoffs and be bracketed with Johns Hopkins Regional. Although Wartburg will have one of the best resume's, Mount Union got the overall #2 #1 seed, as such hosting the "weaker" travel bracket. Wartburg will have a much easier 1st round game this year, but will have the toughest road to the semi's solely due to regionality. Another thing of note, due to Belhaven not having a travel partner, I flew them into Alliance. I tried to setup the bracket so that we avoid rematches the 1st two rounds, but the committee is not obligated to do that and I expect to see a couple of rematches in the 2nd round this year.
Do I count three 1st round flights? (Are we still at 500 miles? I did not see the answer in the FAQ's.)
Chapman to Linfield
Belhaven to UMU
MSJ to UW-L
Why not fly Belhaven to UW-L and drive MSJ to UMU? Two flights
It saves to keep all flight oriented teams in the same bracket. In your example, if Belhaven were to win first two rounds, that's an extra flight 3rd round.
Arguably, those are #2 vs #7 matchups. The only 2v7 or 1v8 matchups in which the underdog won that I can remember are 2022 Aurora vs UWW, and 2004 UMHB vs Trinity TX back in the 28-bid era..
In the 2nd round Belhaven to Wheaton IL is about 740 miles.
MSJ to either Bethel or Aurora in round #2 is another flight.
Respectfully, were I the committee chair, I would take my chances on Belhaven to UW-L.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 10, 2023, 12:09:43 AM
Arguably, those are #2 vs #7 matchups. The only 2v7 or 1v8 matchups in which the underdog won that I can remember are 2022 Aurora vs UWW, and 2004 UMHB vs Trinity TX back in the 28-bid era..
In 2008 all four 7 seeds won in the first round (although two were facing 4 seeds) Wheaton beat 2nd seed Trine en route to the semifinals, Curry beat 2nd seed Ithaca, Wesley beat 4th seed Muhlenberg, and Wartburg beat 4th seed UWSP then 3rd seed Monmouth.
That was also the year three of the 1 seeds lost round two to 5 seeds (UWW beat Willamette, Wash & Jeff beat Millsaps, Franklin beat North Central)
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 10, 2023, 12:09:43 AM
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on November 09, 2023, 11:06:58 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 09, 2023, 11:03:32 PM
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on November 09, 2023, 10:45:23 PM
Here is my updated bracket based upon new RR - www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411.
#1 Seeds - North Central, Mount Union, Wartburg, and Johns Hopkins
#2 Seeds - Susquehanna, Linfield, UW-L, and Cortland State
North Central as in previous years and based upon previous years playoffs will have the #1 overall seed and host throughout the playoffs and be bracketed with Johns Hopkins Regional. Although Wartburg will have one of the best resume's, Mount Union got the overall #2 #1 seed, as such hosting the "weaker" travel bracket. Wartburg will have a much easier 1st round game this year, but will have the toughest road to the semi's solely due to regionality. Another thing of note, due to Belhaven not having a travel partner, I flew them into Alliance. I tried to setup the bracket so that we avoid rematches the 1st two rounds, but the committee is not obligated to do that and I expect to see a couple of rematches in the 2nd round this year.
Do I count three 1st round flights? (Are we still at 500 miles? I did not see the answer in the FAQ's.)
Chapman to Linfield
Belhaven to UMU
MSJ to UW-L
Why not fly Belhaven to UW-L and drive MSJ to UMU? Two flights
It saves to keep all flight oriented teams in the same bracket. In your example, if Belhaven were to win first two rounds, that's an extra flight 3rd round.
Arguably, those are #2 vs #7 matchups. The only 2v7 or 1v8 matchups in which the underdog won that I can remember are 2022 Aurora vs UWW, and 2004 UMHB vs Trinity TX back in the 28-bid era..
In the 2nd round Belhaven to Wheaton IL is about 740 miles.
MSJ to either Bethel or Aurora in round #2 is another flight.
Respectfully, were I the committee chair, I would take my chances on Belhaven to UW-L.
That was an error. I forgot to switch Illinois College and MSJ. Great Catch!
Thanks FCGG!
IMHO, four 1st round match-ups that are tougher than bracketed. Can we call them 2nd round games occurring in the 1st round?
#9 R-MC vs "#22 Ithaca"
#11 Trinity vs "#22 HSU"
#10 Aurora vs "23 Bethel"
In most other years, these 2 teams would not be meeting until round 2.
"#15 UWW vs #18 SJU"
I am really interested to see if Grove City has risen to the next tier of D-3. IMHO, a win over Wheaton convinces me.
Quote from: sju56321 on November 11, 2023, 09:50:58 AM
Just FYI on last year-SJU starting QB was hurt and did not play in playoffs-so fools gold? Not sure.
Aaron Syverson started and played all 12 games for St Johns last year, including the playoff loss to Wartburg so not sure what we are missing. Wartburg's QB did not play in the 4th quarter of that game however.
I'm sorry-he did have a shoulder injury that he played through-but I guess most players are hurting by playoff time.
Yes-I screwed up there-the year before he was injured and didn't play.
Not so much SJU as fool's gold as Wartburg underrated. It's not like Wartburg beat SJU and got cleaned the next round (or even the round after that). They had a pretty good run last year if I recall.
Overall 1 seeds aren't supposed to lose in round 2. Regardless, the point is I am not that confident in ST J getting selected. If the committee goes with win % it could be UWW, Wheaton, and Union, Coe/Muhl as last team in.
Out on the archipelago, I expect HSU at Trinity and Chapman at Whitworth to be a sub-bracket.
If home teams prevail, does undefeated Whitworth host in the second round?
But what about that fifth at-large???? ;)
From the NCAA site:
The championship field consists of 32 teams in a single-elimination tournament. Twenty-eight of the 32 spots will be filled by teams that win their conference, earning an automatic bid. The remaining five spots will be given to at-large teams.
Pretty sloppy stuff in Indy.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-11-05/2023-ncaa-diii-football-championship-how-watch-selection-show-bracket-information (https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-11-05/2023-ncaa-diii-football-championship-how-watch-selection-show-bracket-information)
Here is my updated bracket - www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411
I went with the most cost effective bracket and avoided rematches until 3rd round. The committee could pair NCC with Johns Hopkins for fairness, but I don't think that'll be the case due to the R5 committee having Wartburg over NCC. Let me know your thoughts. Also, Minn. Morris can only go to a few schools so they are in the quadrant with the #1 Seed Wartburg and St. John's.
My previous bracket had Belhaven to Mount and Mount hosting the travel bracket and in a quad with Wheaton and Grove City, while giving NCC the "easier road', but again with the way R5 had them placed behind Wartburg, I didn't give NCC the benefit of the doubt.
The only thing I'll add Mike is that the National Committee has repeatedly said (including this year) that position in the regional rankings is not necessarily equivalent to seeding position. The final criteria "previous year results" is not considered in placing the teams in their region but once all the teams are placed, it becomes a criteria to separate the top teams for seeding. The top teams for seeding seem to be JHU, Wartburg, NCC, Mt Union and Susquehanna. Those are all undefeated teams with at least 2 RRO wins and SOS ranking from .598 to around .500. The question is, does "previous years results" separate NCC and Mt Union from this field, given their SOS's are the two lowest among these teams, as well as Wartburg being the only team among the undefeated's with 3 RRO wins?
Just now back on the boards after going to work...
Respectfully Mike, Whitworth beat Chapman early in the season. I noticed that Pat et al caught this.
The projected bracket by Pat et al flies Belhaven to Whitworth and Chapman to UWL.
It looks like at least 2 flights in round 2, HSU/Trinity to JHU/West Conn and then Whitworth/Belhaven to UWL/Chapman
Quote from: USee on November 11, 2023, 08:00:32 PM
Overall 1 seeds aren't supposed to lose in round 2. Regardless, the point is I am not that confident in ST J getting selected. If the committee goes with win % it could be UWW, Wheaton, and Union, Coe/Muhl as last team in.
This is how it played out which is what I was hearing.
ARRRRRRGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH!
Quote from: USee on November 12, 2023, 05:39:19 PM
Quote from: USee on November 11, 2023, 08:00:32 PM
Overall 1 seeds aren't supposed to lose in round 2. Regardless, the point is I am not that confident in ST J getting selected. If the committee goes with win % it could be UWW, Wheaton, and Union, Coe/Muhl as last team in.
This is how it played out which is what I was hearing.
So if SJU 2023 was fool's gold, what non-precious metal is 2023 MUC?
Quote from: repete on November 27, 2023, 08:41:55 AM
Quote from: USee on November 12, 2023, 05:39:19 PM
Quote from: USee on November 11, 2023, 08:00:32 PM
Overall 1 seeds aren't supposed to lose in round 2. Regardless, the point is I am not that confident in ST J getting selected. If the committee goes with win % it could be UWW, Wheaton, and Union, Coe/Muhl as last team in.
This is how it played out which is what I was hearing.
So if SJU 2023 was fool's gold, what non-precious metal is 2023 MUC?
under Geoff Dartt, the Raiders have resembled the 2020 precious commodity, Charmin
Quote from: D3fanboy on November 27, 2023, 09:36:09 AM
Quote from: repete on November 27, 2023, 08:41:55 AM
Quote from: USee on November 12, 2023, 05:39:19 PM
Quote from: USee on November 11, 2023, 08:00:32 PM
Overall 1 seeds aren't supposed to lose in round 2. Regardless, the point is I am not that confident in ST J getting selected. If the committee goes with win % it could be UWW, Wheaton, and Union, Coe/Muhl as last team in.
This is how it played out which is what I was hearing.
So if SJU 2023 was fool's gold, what non-precious metal is 2023 MUC?
under Geoff Dartt, the Raiders have resembled the 2020 precious commodity, Charmin
I can't tell if this is a troll job or just a plain old bad take.
Look, I'm not dancing on Mount Union's grave (...okay, that's not entirely true), but look at the three full years under Geoff Dart. No regular season losses, three conference titles (and thus playoff appearances), two semifinal appearances, and one trip to the Stagg Bowl. If you offered this three season stretch to any of the other 240 D-III teams, you know how many of them would take you up on it? I can probably count on one hand the number of teams that would say no thanks.
Quote from: lmitzel on November 27, 2023, 05:35:07 PM
Quote from: D3fanboy on November 27, 2023, 09:36:09 AM
Quote from: repete on November 27, 2023, 08:41:55 AM
Quote from: USee on November 12, 2023, 05:39:19 PM
Quote from: USee on November 11, 2023, 08:00:32 PM
Overall 1 seeds aren't supposed to lose in round 2. Regardless, the point is I am not that confident in ST J getting selected. If the committee goes with win % it could be UWW, Wheaton, and Union, Coe/Muhl as last team in.
This is how it played out which is what I was hearing.
So if SJU 2023 was fool's gold, what non-precious metal is 2023 MUC?
under Geoff Dartt, the Raiders have resembled the 2020 precious commodity, Charmin
I can't tell if this is a troll job or just a plain old bad take.
Look, I'm not dancing on Mount Union's grave (...okay, that's not entirely true), but look at the three full years under Geoff Dart. No regular season losses, three conference titles (and thus playoff appearances), two semifinal appearances, and one trip to the Stagg Bowl. If you offered this three season stretch to any of the other 240 D-III teams, you know how many of them would take you up on it? I can probably count on one hand the number of teams that would say no thanks.
... and they wear purple jerseys. :)
Not only will there be no purple in the Stagg Bowl, but there are no purple teams left in the semifinals... when was the last time that happened?
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on December 04, 2023, 12:49:02 AM
Not only will there be no purple in the Stagg Bowl, but there are no purple teams left in the semifinals... when was the last time that happened?
(I thought of that as I was falling asleep. That is a good question for the podcast.)
How about 1991 - Ithaca over Dayton. Susquehanna and SJU were in the Semis.
The Purple are dead. Long live the Purple.
Can anyone see a realistic path to Victory for Cortland? I'm hoping so much for a competitive Stagg Bowl, but it seems like having an elite defense is the only way to play with NCC.
If a team can sustain long, time consuming drives, gain a positive turnover differential, and stop a couple of explosive scores they have a chance.
Doing this is quite unlikely, however.
Quote from: WRMUalum13 on December 10, 2023, 04:03:44 PM
Can anyone see a realistic path to Victory for Cortland? I'm hoping so much for a competitive Stagg Bowl, but it seems like having an elite defense is the only way to play with NCC.
Elite defenses have been the key vs NCC in their recent run.
2019 - only loss to Wheaton, Dallas McRae was the 2019 national DPOY
2021 - only loss to UMHB, Jefferson Fritz was the 2021 national DPOY
2022 - undefeated. Mount Union held them to 28 points in title game and i dont have any stats but they were definitely an elite D and probably top 5 in most categories.
2023 - lowest point total of season @ Wartburg, Owen Grover 2023 national DPOY??
History suggests you need an elite defense along with the DPOY to slow them down.
I am a Northeast guy and I am admittedly ecstatic with Cortland being in the Stagg. This is a special Red Dragon team that is well coached and has an offense that is rolling on all cylinders. For a team from the Northeast/New York State/Region 2 they have already accomplished so much and have had a magical season. I couldn't be more proud. With that being said, if I'm being honest I don't feel the two sides of the bracket were balanced. This is no fault of the Red Dragons as they have taken care of what has been put in front of them each round in a surprising manner.
I said it before and I'll say it again, UW-L, NCC, Wartburg, and UWW were almost definitely the best 4 teams in the nation. In an absolute righteous bracket they would have been the final four teams alive. I will say that Cortland has really surprised and impressed me over the last two weeks. I was quite sure their run was going to end out at Alma. This offense has just found it's groove and neither Alma or RMC was able to keep up. I am REALLY hoping for an injury free, competitive Stagg Bowl that entertains all and proves to be an amazing experience for all the student athletes.
Come Friday I favor NCC by three to four TD's. I just don't believe the Red Dragon D, who absolutely stuffed the Yellowjackets on Saturday, will be able to slow down a team as talented as NCC. I also think the NCC defense will be able to slow down this Red Dragon offense enough to keep the score from being close. I feel NCC and the Mid Western and Western regions as a whole deserve the clear nod here as it has been decades since a team from the Northeast has made the Stagg. Any skepticism and even frustration from other fans of traditional playoff programs is understood, at least by me. I do hope that everyone will give the Red Dragons some respect and love for what they have accomplished regardless because the Red Dragon players, coaches, and alumni really do deserve it. While they are maybe not on a top 1-4 team in the nation, they are a group of high performing student athletes who have competed their tails off for a shot at the National Championship. I've been wrong before and I'm hoping I'm wrong again. NCC 56 Cortland 17
+1 Ice Bear. I appreciate the analysis coming from a veteran observer from that part of the country.
you need either an elite defense or a very opportunistic defense to take on NCC. you have to limit the NCC possessions, either by getting stops, turnovers or hopefully both. There were probably only 1 or 2 of those types of defenses this year in the nation. And the ball has to bounce your way...Wartburg was a bounce the "right way" from a couple of huge fumble recoveries...tough.
But then you also have to have an offense. The '23 NCC defense is not the '22 defense, there are vulnerabilities. It seems like an up-tempo offense works a little better vs NCC, but that is sort of contradictory to limiting NCC offensive possessions. The Cortland QB is going to need a D3 legend type of night.
I think Cortland needs a 59-57 type of game in order to have a slight chance to win and I don't think that they have enough to get to that. NCC easily wins every other type of game.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 11, 2023, 03:42:03 PM
+1 Ice Bear. I appreciate the analysis coming from a veteran observer from that part of the country.
Thank you Ralph and a +k right back at you. :)
Bornpowerindex has NCC by 13.
Lazindex has NCC by 6.
Quote from: WRMUalum13 on December 10, 2023, 04:03:44 PM
Can anyone see a realistic path to Victory for Cortland? I'm hoping so much for a competitive Stagg Bowl, but it seems like having an elite defense is the only way to play with NCC.
... well this didn't age well
Quote from: WRMUalum13 on December 15, 2023, 10:43:17 PM
Quote from: WRMUalum13 on December 10, 2023, 04:03:44 PM
Can anyone see a realistic path to Victory for Cortland? I'm hoping so much for a competitive Stagg Bowl, but it seems like having an elite defense is the only way to play with NCC.
... well this didn't age well
+k for the honesty and hey, I'm an east guy and I am right there with you WRM. I watched Cortland a bunch this season and while I was blown away by their offensive prowess I simply looked at the last two decades to set aside any hopes that they were this good. I think I had NCC by 4+ TD's. That was just a great game by two great teams. A game that I too couldn't have been more wrong about.