Bracket Projection - 2023

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

Updated the link!

Here is my updated bracket: https://officepoolstop.com/Players-Only/MyBracket

#1 Seeds - NCC, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins, Mount Union
#2 Seeds - UWL, Hardin-Simmons, Grove City, Susquehanna

At Large Selections - UW-W, Wheaton, Union, and St. John's - St. John's significant SOS and 1-2 in RR, places it above the likes of Muhlenberg with a average SOS and 0-1 RR, Coe 1-1 RR and okay SOS and Berry weak SOS and 0-1 RR. Berry needs Huntingdon to win out to add a RR win, which depending on how the committee views each criteria.

Also, what some may see in this bracket is Brevard replacing Belhaven. As such Brevard being matched up with R-MC within the travel bracket, because I couldn't complete the quadrant as Brevard likely matchups were CNU, R-MC, and MSJ, but all four couldn't go to each other.

I clicked the updated link and it is asking me to sign in.

Should be updated now

Nope, same result for me.  I tried Google, Google Incognito and Edge.

[MRMIKESMITH]

Curious, you must see Cortland beating IC?

I feel like that's the only way HSU can get a 2, what with the Endicott results.

Regarding Cortland and IC, that game is always a pick'em, both could have 2 RR wins come Selection Sunday regardless of result. Cortland winning out and possibly having Delaware Valley, Brockport, and Ithaca. That would lead me to have them as a #2 seed. Even with the loss, the argument would be the placement. What I found out is that although we have our 500 mile rule, the committee stresses experience for athletes. The committee would place teams by distance when it comes to the hypothetical seeds of 3-6. The NE schools would be package with a top R1/R2 team as in my example Johns Hopkins, much similar to Ithaca last year. Also, in my scenario, I tried not place teams in the same quadrant that have played during the season (although the committee is at no liberty to do that). Cortland wins out, they would have an argument with a potential undefeated Grove City. I don't see them jumping a undefeated Mount Union (regardless of criteria). With that if they were moved to #2, you put them at the Grove City spot. You can also switch the Cortland Quad with the Susquehanna Quad.

Regarding Hardin-Simmons, you have to remember, the committee is going to look at each RR "equally", Hardin-Simmons beat UW-L at UW-L. It's not going to matter though, because Hardin-Simmons will be facing Trinity (TX) if everything holds true. Hardin-Simmons is currently positioned 11 spots higher than Trinity at the moment in terms of SOS. The argument would be which team gets the home game. Does the committee value Trinity win at Berry over H-SC win over UW-L or does the committee value Trinity's loss to St.John's more than Hardin-Simmons loss to Endicott. Do they factor in Hardin-Simmons injuries? I would value Hardin-Simmons win over UW-L.  I'd still give them a #2 over an undefeated 9-win Linfield as well.

[Ralph Turner]

So, both Gusties & Johnnies. Which is the A & which is the C?

[MRMIKESMITH]

So, both Gusties & Johnnies. Which is the A & which is the C?

Gusties - Pool A and Johnnies - Pool C. The Royals and Gusties are currently interchangeable at the moment. This scenario probably benefits Bethel more than anything. Regarding bracket placement, the argument would be to put Johnnies in the quadrant with the WIAC schools and Royals in the NCC quadrant.

Another scenario which may be more cost effective is to fly Brevard (current USAC leader) to DePauw and have Grove City host Wheaton in the Mount Union quadrant and move R-MC as #2 seed in Hopkins bracket and host CNU. That's a more likely scenario if committee dings the PAC "Coaches" for playing a closed schedule. IMHO, I'd fly Brevard to DePauw and have Grove City host Wheaton.

[IC798891]

Regarding Cortland and IC, that game is always a pick'em, both could have 2 RR wins come Selection Sunday regardless of result. Cortland winning out and possibly having Delaware Valley, Brockport, and Ithaca. That would lead me to have them as a #2 seed. Even with the loss, the argument would be the placement. What I found out is that although we have our 500 mile rule, the committee stresses experience for athletes. The committee would place teams by distance when it comes to the hypothetical seeds of 3-6. The NE schools would be package with a top R1/R2 team as in my example Johns Hopkins, much similar to Ithaca last year. Also, in my scenario, I tried not place teams in the same quadrant that have played during the season (although the committee is at no liberty to do that). Cortland wins out, they would have an argument with a potential undefeated Grove City. I don't see them jumping a undefeated Mount Union (regardless of criteria). With that if they were moved to #2, you put them at the Grove City spot. You can also switch the Cortland Quad with the Susquehanna Quad.

Regarding Hardin-Simmons, you have to remember, the committee is going to look at each RR "equally", Hardin-Simmons beat UW-L at UW-L. It's not going to matter though, because Hardin-Simmons will be facing Trinity (TX) if everything holds true. Hardin-Simmons is currently positioned 11 spots higher than Trinity at the moment in terms of SOS. The argument would be which team gets the home game. Does the committee value Trinity win at Berry over H-SC win over UW-L or does the committee value Trinity's loss to St.John's more than Hardin-Simmons loss to Endicott. Do they factor in Hardin-Simmons injuries? I would value Hardin-Simmons win over UW-L.  I'd still give them a #2 over an undefeated 9-win Linfield as well.

Right, but if Ithaca beats Cortland, then they're 9-1. Ithaca's SOS will dip with the last two weeks, but still be very very high. The Bombers will probably have several results against RR teams. A worst case 9-1 Hopkins will be ranked, and a worst case 8-2 Endicott has a good chance as well. They've also got wins over RPI, Hobart, and Union, at least one of which would probably be ranked, even if they were all 8-2. I don't think Cortland will be if IC beats them (I think they will lose to Brockport this week)

But a 9-1 Bombers team could have a top 10 SOS, and a 2-1 record vs RR opponents. That seems like a pretty good resume for a #2 seed

[D3Navy]

Updated the link!

Here is my updated bracket: https://officepoolstop.com/Players-Only/MyBracket

#1 Seeds - NCC, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins, Mount Union
#2 Seeds - UWL, Hardin-Simmons, Grove City, Susquehanna

At Large Selections - UW-W, Wheaton, Union, and St. John's - St. John's significant SOS and 1-2 in RR, places it above the likes of Muhlenberg with a average SOS and 0-1 RR, Coe 1-1 RR and okay SOS and Berry weak SOS and 0-1 RR. Berry needs Huntingdon to win out to add a RR win, which depending on how the committee views each criteria.

Also, what some may see in this bracket is Brevard replacing Belhaven. As such Brevard being matched up with R-MC within the travel bracket, because I couldn't complete the quadrant as Brevard likely matchups were CNU, R-MC, and MSJ, but all four couldn't go to each other.

I clicked the updated link and it is asking me to sign in.

Should be updated now

Nope, same result for me.  I tried Google, Google Incognito and Edge.

Also can't get in.

[MRMIKESMITH]

Updated the link!

Here is my updated bracket: https://officepoolstop.com/Players-Only/MyBracket

#1 Seeds - NCC, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins, Mount Union
#2 Seeds - UWL, Hardin-Simmons, Grove City, Susquehanna

At Large Selections - UW-W, Wheaton, Union, and St. John's - St. John's significant SOS and 1-2 in RR, places it above the likes of Muhlenberg with a average SOS and 0-1 RR, Coe 1-1 RR and okay SOS and Berry weak SOS and 0-1 RR. Berry needs Huntingdon to win out to add a RR win, which depending on how the committee views each criteria.

Also, what some may see in this bracket is Brevard replacing Belhaven. As such Brevard being matched up with R-MC within the travel bracket, because I couldn't complete the quadrant as Brevard likely matchups were CNU, R-MC, and MSJ, but all four couldn't go to each other.

I clicked the updated link and it is asking me to sign in.

Should be updated now

Nope, same result for me.  I tried Google, Google Incognito and Edge.

Also can't get in.

www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411

[D3Navy]

Updated the link!

Here is my updated bracket: https://officepoolstop.com/Players-Only/MyBracket

#1 Seeds - NCC, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins, Mount Union
#2 Seeds - UWL, Hardin-Simmons, Grove City, Susquehanna

At Large Selections - UW-W, Wheaton, Union, and St. John's - St. John's significant SOS and 1-2 in RR, places it above the likes of Muhlenberg with a average SOS and 0-1 RR, Coe 1-1 RR and okay SOS and Berry weak SOS and 0-1 RR. Berry needs Huntingdon to win out to add a RR win, which depending on how the committee views each criteria.

Also, what some may see in this bracket is Brevard replacing Belhaven. As such Brevard being matched up with R-MC within the travel bracket, because I couldn't complete the quadrant as Brevard likely matchups were CNU, R-MC, and MSJ, but all four couldn't go to each other.

I clicked the updated link and it is asking me to sign in.

Should be updated now

Nope, same result for me.  I tried Google, Google Incognito and Edge.

Also can't get in.

www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411

Thanks, Mike! 

I have a buddy teaching at Chapman and they'd come to Trinity if they meet.  May your projections be true!

Tom

[MRMIKESMITH]

Here is the updated bracket - www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411.

#1 Seeds - NCC, Mount Union, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins
#2 Seeds - Linfield, Grove City Cortland State, Aurora UW-L, Susquehanna

Pool C - UWW, Wheaton, Union, and St. John's (If Bethel wins, they get in)

This bracket is one of the unique brackets as the Travel bracket is the NCC bracket. The question is does the committee value SOS or wins when discussing #1 seeds, that would give a WIAC school a #1 seed rather than Wartburg, thus probably giving a WIAC school the Travel bracket and putting Wartburg as the #2 seed in the NCC bracket. Thoughts?

Edit - Gave Cortland and UW-L #2 Seeds.

[sju56321]

So LaCrosse or UWW would be a 3 seed-one in Wartburg bracket and the other in NCC bracket? Wow.

[MRMIKESMITH]

So LaCrosse or UWW would be a 3 seed-one in Wartburg bracket and the other in NCC bracket? Wow.

I will adjust my projected bracket after the Regional Rankings are provided later this week. Those rankings will provide clarity. I will also try to avoid rematches in the 1st round and 2nd rounds as long as it is seeding appropriate (not including travel bracket). With the 500 mile rule back in play, I believe a WIAC team (UWW or UWL) will play either NCC or Wartburg in the 2nd round. The only thing that may change is the higher ranked WIAC team may/should host the 1st two rounds. Looking at last year UWW hosted a 1 loss Aurora, while a one loss UW-L was sent on the road to Wartburg. Another option depending on ranking is to have Aurora and Alma face off in a 4/5 and UW-L host MIAC Champion in the quadrant. While St. John's (Pool C) faces UW-W at UW-W and the winner plays the winner of Wartburg/Ill Coll.

Edit: I just went ahead and adjusted based upon aforementioned scenario. Thanks SJU

[Ralph Turner]

Out here on the travel archipelago, this is a good year to give an undefeated NWC  Champ a #2 seed.

[Captainred81]

I think your bracket looks good with your conference winners and pool candidates.  The top seeds are questionable to me.  I imagine that Johns Hopkins will capture one with the 4th highest SOS, 10-0 and Conference champ...2 RR wins.  If it is done as nameless schools and using the criteria to rank, I think they deserve a spot there.  So my prediction is Hopkins, UW-L, NCC and Mount Union.  I think NCC is the top seed overall, and Mount is probably #2.  So Wartburg goes with Mount and UW-L goes with NCC. 

Looking at last years bracket, NCC got paired up with all east located teams, except lake Forest in the first round.  Mount seemed to have the east and mid atlantic teams. 

St. Johns was pretty regional with central and northern teams.

The last bracket was mostly island teams with Bethel and Wheaton.

I think the committee tries to, as much as possible, mix matchups in the first round and keep their eyes on flights.  They probably start with the teams are flying regardless.  Like Linfield and SCIAC.  Either they fly or someone flies to them.  I think after that, flights are what they are.  They can't spend too much time trying to predict who is going win in the 2nd round.  For instance last year, Bethel beat Wheaton, and then flew to Linfield... If Linfield had beaten Bethel, then there would have been a nother flight. 

All of this is to say, I think the pairings in your bracket will change because the comittee will have a few teams in brackets where they dont fit the geographical mold

[MRMIKESMITH]

I think your bracket looks good with your conference winners and pool candidates.  The top seeds are questionable to me.  I imagine that Johns Hopkins will capture one with the 4th highest SOS, 10-0 and Conference champ...2 RR wins.  If it is done as nameless schools and using the criteria to rank, I think they deserve a spot there.  So my prediction is Hopkins, UW-L, NCC and Mount Union.  I think NCC is the top seed overall, and Mount is probably #2.  So Wartburg goes with Mount and UW-L goes with NCC. 

Looking at last years bracket, NCC got paired up with all east located teams, except lake Forest in the first round.  Mount seemed to have the east and mid atlantic teams. 

St. Johns was pretty regional with central and northern teams.

The last bracket was mostly island teams with Bethel and Wheaton.

I think the committee tries to, as much as possible, mix matchups in the first round and keep their eyes on flights.  They probably start with the teams are flying regardless.  Like Linfield and SCIAC.  Either they fly or someone flies to them.  I think after that, flights are what they are.  They can't spend too much time trying to predict who is going win in the 2nd round.  For instance last year, Bethel beat Wheaton, and then flew to Linfield... If Linfield had beaten Bethel, then there would have been a nother flight. 

All of this is to say, I think the pairings in your bracket will change because the comittee will have a few teams in brackets where they dont fit the geographical mold

I actually think Wartburg should be highly considered for a #1 Seed with potentially having 4 RR wins with wins over Monmouth (7-2), Coe (8-1), Central (7-2), and Bethel (7-2). I feel as though no one wants to give them the nod. I see a lot of penciling in UW-L as #1, which is debatable, but H2H and the same record as Hardin-Simmons, I find it difficult to just pencil them in. Last year, we saw St. John's as #1, but they had a chance to revenge their in-season loss, UW-L does not. I would have North Central, Mount Union, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins/Susquehanna, UW-L as possible #1 seed candidates.

[Ralph Turner]

Wart's undefeated record plus 4 RRR builds a strong case for overall #1.