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Messages - Trin9-0

#1
Devanney sent out a year-end recap email to alumni and there were a few interesting nuggets. Nolan O'Brien finished second in the OPY voting. We usually aren't privy to who the runner-up would be, even though in most years we can posit a pretty good guess. It speaks volumes about the respect he garnered from coaches across the league despite being slowed by the foot injury for most of the year. I had actually forgotten that O'Brien had an additional year of eligibility remaining. Certainly wish him well in the portal and his departure will be a significant loss for the Bants.

Most of us have noted that this is the most balance the league has seen in many, many years (ever?) and Deveanney certainly agrees. He wrote "this era of NESCAC football is at its most competitive top to bottom". For the first time in league history no team finished the season with fewer than two losses. Since 2000 there have been 31 teams to win or share a piece of the NESCAC title; the 2025 Trinity and Wesleyan teams rank just 18th and 25th respectively among them in average margin of victory.

Devanney added that Trinity already has 19 commitments for next year's recruiting class and gave praise to the College's new President and Athletic Director for their support of the program. Given who returns for the Cardinals it appears Wes will be likely be the team to beat next season but I'll put the Bants right behind them as the other school most likely to earn the NESCAC's first ever DIII Playoff bid.
#2
Count me firmly in the NEVER turf Andrus camp. The grass surface and not having track between the field and the stands is part of what makes for such a unique venue in the league. If they can improve the actual playing surface, as Nescacman alluded to, then that's the best of both worlds. It was always my favorite road game venue as a player and from a safety standpoint it's been proven that natural grass is far superior to artificial turf.


Also, I realize it's pile on Trinity time but I'm zero percent worried that somehow Devanney and his staff have suddenly forgotten how to win big games.

Did their win over league runner-up Middlebury in 2022 not count as a big win? How about beating league runner-up Amherst in 2018 or their win over over league runner-up Middlebury in 2017, or their win over league runner-up Tufts in 2016? They also beat the league runner-up Middlebury in 2012 and Williams in 2008. And those are just their wins against the eventual 2nd place team. There are obviously other "big games" that take place throughout each season. Yes, they've come up just short recently (missing out on an outright title by an average of 6 points in those deciding games) but they're still winning enough every year to be in the games where everything is on the line and they've won more of those than they've lost.

In my opinion, the difference the past few years is the leveling of the talent in the NESCAC. Across the league, and at Wesleyan in particular, the high-end talent has risen substantially in recent seasons. In most years Trinity has been considerably bigger and more athletic than almost everyone they played. That certainly wasn't the case on Saturday. And while the Bants are in no way devoid of talent I think you could argue that (especially given their injuries) Devanney actually did more with less than Wesleyan this season.

The Cardinals were every bit as physical as the Bantams up front (if not more so) they had better QB play and had more dangerous receiving options to go along with a fast/physical defense. Yet somehow, as Lumber noted, Wes still had their annual shocking loss to a team at the very bottom of the league and actually had two losses this year against teams with losing records.

Trinity has lost to a team with a losing record just once in the past 26 years(!), a 6 point season opening loss at Tufts who finished 4-5 in 2019. Now, before you come at me with pitchforks... of course I would rather suffer a loss to a bad team and then win the head-to-head with an outright title on the line. My point is that Trinity no longer has a significant talent advantage against the other top teams in the league and that, much more than coaching, is why they've had to share the league title in two of the past three seasons rather than celebrating their fourth consecutive outright championship.
#3
Quote from: lumbercat on November 10, 2025, 11:04:55 AMHaven't seen the Battle of the Birds tape yet but very impressed with the Wes ground game and the performance of Angelo LaRose. Wes seemed to be a ground attack "by committee" during the year but LaRose really stepped it up in huge game. Can't remember many times over the years when anyone ran the ball like that against Trinity. Very surprising.
Another thing that jumped out to me was the fact that Wes was able to contain O'Brien who I consider the most explosive, dangerous player in the league. If he was at full strength the Cards did a great job containing him.
Looks like the Dante Kelly was the best receiver on the field on Saturday. He is destined to be in O'Briens class in terms of explosiveness if he is not at that level now. He's going to be a huge headache for opponents for the next 3 years.

Nolan O'Brien indeed had been nursing a foot injury for the past several weeks. However, you're spot on about LaRose and he was a much bigger difference in the game. His 78 yard TD was a gut punch just after Trinity had cut the lead to 3 with a little over 2:00 in the first half. Then he ripped of a 68 yarder to the Trin 11 when the Bants had again pulled within 3 points in the third quarter. Wes scored two plays later. The last time anyone ran for over 200 yards against Trinity was Tufts' Kevin Kelly who had 214 in 2001!!

To me, Wesleyan's ability to run the ball on Trinity was the story of the game. Fitzsimons was very good and his receivers were excellent but the inability of the Bants to stop the run really killed them. At one point a guy sitting next to me (who played for Trinity in 1969) asked aloud dumbfounded, "How did this team lose to Bowdoin?"

Finally, I found this interesting; Trinity leads the all time series against Wesleyan 67-56-1 However, the Cardinals have beaten the Bantams in each of the following milestone games:

1st game - 60-0 in 1885
25th game - 3-0 in 1914
50th game - 7-0 in 1932
75th game - 14-11 in 1975
100th game - 37-13 in 2000

The 125th Trinity-Wesleyan game will be played next year and if Trin doesn't find a way to beat Wes in the quasquicentennial meeting it'll be three in a row for the Cards over the Bants for the first time since 1975-1977!
#4
No comment at this time.  :'(

Nescacman, genuinely sorry to miss you at the game/tailgate. Having the kids at the game was like herding cats.

Congrats to you and Wes.
#5
Quote from: Nescacman on November 06, 2025, 10:36:39 PMSo we had Coach Devanney on the 9 Weeks NESCAC Podcast this week (thanks for coming on, Coach!). A memorable quote from our interview:

"We've already told the team nobody gets rings for co-championships at Trinity."

I can attest to this. I've got a watch that I've never worn from 2002 when we were co-champs with Williams.


It's no surprise that Nescacman picked the Cards. However, I thought the 30-27 score prediction was interesting. Trinity has allowed 30 points or more just three times in the past 15 seasons (that's 2.4% of their games). It's been a quarter century since Wes scored 30+ vs. Trinity (37 in 2000). Sure, Wesleyan averages just under 30 ppg for the year but the Bants lead the league in scoring defense at 13 ppg. It's also worth noting that three of the league leading 14 touchdowns scored against them were actually defensive or special teams touchdowns.

I do agree Wesleyan will air it out as Fitzsimons is legit and Newcomb and Kelly are very dangerous. Plus it's unlikely the Cards' 9th ranked running game will have much success on the ground against a rushing defense that gives up 92 ypg. However, if Wes can't find success against the league's best passing defense it could be in trouble against a balanced Bantam offensive attack.

One area that does really concern me is the Bantam kicking game. After being spoiled for many years with historically excellent kickers, this year Trinity has made just 40% of their field goal attempts and missed three extra points. In a close game, on grass, this could be the difference between a sweatshirt and a ring. In the end I'll take Trinity to win (and cover the -3 Nescacman spread) 21-17. Note, that wouldn't be enough to cover using the SP+ 6.7 score projection.

I also disagree on the Ephs and Mammoths. While I was very impressed with the Amherst front seven against Trinity, and Williams comes limping into the game I think they'll find just enough to win (but not cover -3) for their first victory at Pratt field since '21.

Finally, in a super-duper-ultra upset special I'll go with Bowdoin, to not only cover but, WIN on the road against the Mules to claim the outright CBB title (the third time in four years they'll lay claim to at least a share of the most adorable trophy in Maine). Give me Bates and Middlebury to round things out.

I'm still trying to convince my wife that the NESCAC football championship game is a great way to spend quality time with our three young kids. If I'm successful I'll be sure to swing by the Nescacman tailgate.
#6
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 05, 2025, 10:55:42 AM
Quote from: Trin9-0 on November 05, 2025, 09:48:14 AMPat, what are your way too early thoughts on the likelihood of a NESCAC team earning an at large bid in 2026 and beyond?

I think I talked about it here last offseason -- basically any NESCAC team that finished with one loss or fewer should get a bid, whether it's the AQ or an at-large. With no non-conference games, and just nine games, I'm not as sure about a 7-2 NESCAC team -- doesn't look super likely.

For those wondering, historically it has been very common for the NESCAC to have multiple teams finish with 1 loss or fewer. In fact, over the past 25 seasons (including this year since it cannot happen) there's only been 8 years where the NESCAC didn't have multiple teams with 1 loss or fewer.

It's worth noting that for most of those years (17 seasons) we only had an 8 game schedule, thus one fewer opportunity to lose a game. However, even since 2017 there has been multiple teams with 1 or fewer losses in all but four seasons:

2023 - Middlebury (8-1), Trinity (8-1)
2021 - Williams (9-0), Trinity (8-1)
2019 - Middlebury (9-0), Wesleyan (8-1)
2018 - Trinity (8-1), Amherst (8-1)
2016 - Trinity (8-0), Tufts (7-1)
2015 - Amherst (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2014 - Amherst (8-0), Wesleyan (7-1)
2013 - Amherst (7-1), Middlebury (7-1), Wesleyan (7-1)
2012 - Trinity (8-0), Middlebury (7-1)
2011 - Amherst (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2010 - Williams (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2006 - Williams (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2005 - Trinity (8-0), Colby (7-1)
2002 - Trinity (7-1), Williams (7-1)
2001 - Williams (8-0), Amherst (7-1)
2000 - Amherst (7-1), Colby (7-1), Middlebury (7-1)
#7
Quote from: Nescacman on November 04, 2025, 09:56:57 PM
Quote from: Trin9-0 on November 04, 2025, 09:40:38 PMI don't agree with the NESCAC's stance on tiebreakers but it is what it is.

The league rules state that Trinity has earned at least a share of the league championship this season. Whether you choose to agree or not is completely irrelevant.

With that said, I can guarantee that absolutely no one at Trinity is satisfied with a co-championship, especially with what happened last year. I expect a great game and think I'll be happy with the outcome. I'm confident you feel the same and will pick Wes to win accordingly. Is that touching the money?

The good news is the "participation trophy" mentality of the powers that be in the NESCAC ends in 2026. Someone will have to get the NESCAC's automatic bid to the D3 play-offs.

That's not necessarily true as it sounds like the league will still award co-championships for a two-way tie. Sure, the head-to-head result will determine who gets the automatic bid (and rightly so) but this is a missed opportunity to revert back to the 2018 tie-breaker policy.

And even worse, if your report is accurate that the league will use a COIN FLIP(!?!) to determine who get's to use the NESCAC playoff bid in the event of a three-way tie then we're right back to where we started.


Pat, what are your way too early thoughts on the likelihood of a NESCAC team earning an at large bid in 2026 and beyond?
#8
I don't agree with the NESCAC's stance on tiebreakers but it is what it is.

The league rules state that Trinity has earned at least a share of the league championship this season. Whether you choose to agree or not is completely irrelevant.

With that said, I can guarantee that absolutely no one at Trinity is satisfied with a co-championship, especially with what happened last year. I expect a great game and think I'll be happy with the outcome. I'm confident you feel the same and will pick Wes to win accordingly. Is that touching the money?
#9
Quote from: Nescacman on November 04, 2025, 05:38:45 PM
Quote from: Trin9-0 on November 04, 2025, 11:23:07 AM
Quote from: Nescacman on November 03, 2025, 10:48:16 PMIt was the 100th straight win for Middlebury over Hamilton.
This admittedly made me chuckle. In reality, it's 28 straight wins for the Panthers over Hamilton. This got me thinking about where that ranks among the longest winning/losing streaks between NESCAC schools (it appears to be 4th).

It's quite possible I've missed some, given how spotty the record-keeping has been over the years, but here's what I've come up with for a top 15:

1. Middlebury 35 straight over Bates (1989-2023)
2. Trinity 30 straight over Hamilton (1995-Present)
3. Trinity 29 straight wins over Bates (1979-Present)
4. Middlebury 28 straight over Hamilton (1995-Present)
5. Trinity 26 straight over Bowdoin (1998-Present)
6. Williams 18 straight over Hamilton (1997-2014)
7. Trinity 17 straight over Colby (1998-2024)
7. Wesleyan 17 straight over Bates (2006-2023)
9. *Williams 15 straight over Bates (at least 1988-2002)
9. Williams 15 straight over Bowdoin (1980-2006)
9. Williams 15 straight over Tufts (1993-2007)
12. Amherst 14 straight over Hamilton (1993-2018)
13. Middlebury 13 straight over Tufts (2002-2014)
13. Trinity 13 straight over Wesleyan (2001-2013)
13. Williams 13 straight over Wesleyan (2000-2012)


As for the future... the forecast for Middletown on Saturday includes rain early in the day. Nothing major, but it could impact the conditions on the grass field at Andrus. Wesleyan averages just 84 rushing yards per game (9th in the NESCAC) while Trinity's defense has allowed only 92 rush yards per game (3rd in the NESCAC).

Wes leads the league in rushing defense, giving up just 66 yards per game while the Bants are second in the NESCAC in rushing averaging nearly 170 yards per contest.

The winds look to be light so I would anticipate the Cards, who lead the NESCAC in passing offense, to really air it out on Saturday despite facing the league's top pass defense. In my view, that strength-on-strength match up will decide the 124th Trinity-Wesleyan game.

Good thing for Colby, UBates and Bowdoin that Hartford State isn't in the C-B-B...

Now, now, Nescacman... don't be too smug my friend. As you know, Wesleyan has just three wins against Trinity since 2001. That's only two more than the Maine schools have against the Bants over the same period.
#10
Quote from: Nescacman on November 03, 2025, 10:48:16 PMIt was the 100th straight win for Middlebury over Hamilton.
This admittedly made me chuckle. In reality, it's 28 straight wins for the Panthers over Hamilton. This got me thinking about where that ranks among the longest winning/losing streaks between NESCAC schools (it appears to be 4th).

It's quite possible I've missed some, given how spotty the record-keeping has been over the years, but here's what I've come up with for a top 15:

1. Middlebury 35 straight over Bates (1989-2023)
2. Trinity 30 straight over Hamilton (1995-Present)
3. Trinity 29 straight wins over Bates (1979-Present)
4. Middlebury 28 straight over Hamilton (1995-Present)
5. Trinity 26 straight over Bowdoin (1998-Present)
6. Williams 18 straight over Hamilton (1997-2014)
7. Trinity 17 straight over Colby (1998-2024)
7. Wesleyan 17 straight over Bates (2006-2023)
9. Williams 15 straight over Bates (1988-2002)
9. Williams 15 straight over Bowdoin (1980-2006)
9. Williams 15 straight over Tufts (1993-2007)
12. Amherst 14 straight over Hamilton (1993-2018)
13. Middlebury 13 straight over Tufts (2002-2014)
13. Trinity 13 straight over Wesleyan (2001-2013)
13. Williams 13 straight over Wesleyan (2000-2012)


As for the future... the forecast for Middletown on Saturday includes rain early in the day. Nothing major, but it could impact the conditions on the grass field at Andrus. Wesleyan averages just 84 rushing yards per game (9th in the NESCAC) while Trinity's defense has allowed only 92 rush yards per game (3rd in the NESCAC).

Wes leads the league in rushing defense, giving up just 66 yards per game while the Bants are second in the NESCAC in rushing averaging nearly 170 yards per contest.

The winds look to be light so I would anticipate the Cards, who lead the NESCAC in passing offense, to really air it out on Saturday despite facing the league's top pass defense. In my view, that strength-on-strength match up will decide the 124th Trinity-Wesleyan game.
#11
First off... CONGRATULATIONS to Trinity on securing, at least a share of, the NESCAC Championship! This is the Bantams' 12th official title and the 19th time since the league was formed in 1971 that Trinity has finished with the best record in NESCAC play.

Both are the most in league history. Trin has 9 outright titles since 2000, also the most in the NESCAC. Obviously they'll need to win Saturday to avoid sharing the title with Wesleyan.

This will be the second consecutive year that the Battle of the Birds carries championship implications. The Bants will be looking to avenge last year's loss in The Coop. Surprisingly, Trinity's recent history against Wesleyan in Middletown is actually better than when the game has been played in Hartford. Trin is 10-1 at Andrus Field in their last 11 trips down I-91. It should be an excellent match up as both team are at, or near, the top of the league in the most important categories. Trinity outlasted a game Amherst squad as they continue to improve week by week. Meanwhile Wes, one again, showed their knack for winning close games. Just a devastating loss for Williams. I wonder if they're considering revoking DiCenzo's diploma?

The score projection via the SP+ model is as close as I can remember for a Trinity game:
Trinity 25.9, Wesleyan 19.2

It's worth noting that last year it had the Bants as a 19.3 point favorite over Wes... :-\


Revisiting these predictions; I've already hit on one as Amherst hasn't won a game since. Colby looks very well positioned to both finish ahead of the Jumbos and win the CBB. Midd did, in fact, lose to Trin in a nailbiter, and would win out with a victory over Tufts on Saturday. Of course I did miss on yet another heartbreaking collapse by the Ephs against Wes but overall these mostly came to fruition.

Quote from: Trin9-0 on October 16, 2025, 04:03:04 PMFair enough, Spring. Here's a few luke warm takes to get us back on track:

Amherst will have at least 3 more losses.
The Ephs finally get over the Wes hump.
Bants tie for the league title with Williams despite the head-to-head (poetic after their hotly debated/disputed co-championship in '23).
Colby wins the CBB and finishes above Tufts.
Midd loses a nailbiter on Saturday to drop to 2-4 but then wins out to salvage a winning season.
#12
Quote from: Nescacman on October 30, 2025, 09:18:55 PMwe'll go with the favored Bants in the Coop where they rarely lose (only 2 losses at home since 2021).

Rarely is an understatement.
Trinity has lost just 6 home games in the past 24 seasons, a .938 winning percentage in The Coop.
#13
Quote from: muleshoe on October 27, 2025, 03:24:37 PMWith two weeks left in the season - it's time to talk about the real possibility of a 5 way tie for the league championship, and I don't think it's that wild of a scenario:

1. Colby or Tufts win out. They play each other this weekend then have Bowdoin/Midd, respectively to close the year
2. Amherst Wins Out. Upset in the Coop then host the Ephs
3. Williams Beats Wes this weekend in Williamstown
4. Wes beats Trinity back-to-back for the first time since 1997-1998

Please check my math here, but I think we would have 5 at 6-3 if this plays out.

Your math is right, muleshoe and even though I'd be surprised if more than two of these (at least) 6 hypotheticals plays out I have to admit it'd be pretty cool to see it happen.

Imagine if the league goes 53 years without even a two-loss team winning a title and then we get a 5-way championship tie with half the league winning it all with three losses apiece! Madness.
#14
Latest SP+ ratings and NESCAC projections:

30. Trinity 24.4
57. Wesleyan 14.2
78. Williams 8.5
89. Middlebury 5.9
117. Tufts 2.3
121. Amherst 1.5
152. Colby -6.0
171. Bates -11.4
189. Hamilton -17.1
195. Bowdoin -17.8

Bates 24.4 Bowdoin 20.5
Middlebury 32.4 Hamilton 11.8
Trinity 34.7 Amherst  9.4
Tufts 25.2 Colby 14.4
Wesleyan 25.1 Williams 21.8
#15
While I (happily) underestimated the Bants up in Brunswick I'm feeling pretty good about where they stand with two games to go. Trin is alone atop the standings and leads the league in scoring offense and defense.

Amherst heads to The Coop on Saturday having lost two straight and while Marek Hill has been a revelation for the Mammoths he's coming off an underwhelming day against Wes where he completed just 51% of his passes along with 3 ints and took a pair of sacks. Trinity has the #1 pass defense in the NESCAC through 7 games.

Trin can clinch at least a share of the NESCAC title with a win on Saturday. It would be the 19th time the Bantams finished with the NESCAC's best record and their 12th official title.