It's your ranking bud, do what's in your heart.

All I know is that Wes needed a miracle to beat a team who hasn't had a winning season since 1996. Meanwhile Trinity completely obliterated the team YOU had ranked as the third best in the NESCAC.

To be clear, I fully acknowledge Wesleyan is an excellent team and very well could run the table and beat Trinity for a third straight season (something they haven't done since 1975-'77). My point is that, as much as we appreciate the time and effort that Nescacman contributes, it's undeniable that he has a pro-Wes bias so just take that into account before putting any stock into his own personal ranking.

They say "You're never as good as you look and you're never as bad as you look". It will be difficult for the Bants to look any better than they did against Williams. In fact, over the 85 times the two programs have played this was Trinity's most lopsided victory ever against the Ephs. You'd similarly assume that Wesleyan's defense won't be as bad as they were against Hamilton.

I agree with lumbercat that Hamilton was likely the trap game that Wesleyan typically loses. The fact that they escaped means we could be looking at a historic game in The Coop on November 14 for the 125th Battle of the Birds. The two have never met while both teams were undefeated (only twice have they played with a combined 1 loss, in 1993 and 2016). Don't worry, Maple, I agree there's still a long way to go!

Bantamsdad69, I know as well as anyone that it's hard to not fall into Nescacman's trap, but I've learned over the years that it's exactly what he's looking for. He knows as well as the rest of the board that there's no real case to be made for Wesleyan in the top spot after their narrow escape in Clinton. Best to just roll your eyes and realize that despite his very meaning full addition to the board he can't help himself when it comes to his complete lack of objectivity about Wesleyan.

Quote from: Nescacman on October 05, 2026, 02:07:48 PMWe're not sure we can ever remember a bigger SP+ "spread" than what they are calling for in the Hartford State/Hamilton tilt this Saturday. Hs7-2, knowing that you are an SP+ aficionado, we're sure you can either confirm or deny that this is the biggest called for margin by SP+ for a NESCAC game. Just curious.

As an side, that spread seems aggressive to us, but we digress.

NM

Indeed, 51.7 points is an absolutely MASSIVE number, but it's not the biggest NESCAC SP+ projection discrepancy on record. That game did involve the same two schools however, and it could serve as a warning to the Bantams... in 2023 the projected score for Trinity @ Hamilton was 52.8 - 0. It ended up being a 3 point game with under 2:00 in the 2nd quarter and the Bants led by just 10 at halftime. The final score was a much closer than expected 34-21.

For what it's worth, the Nescacman point spread for that game was Trinity -42.
Thanks to Wes, I can't imagine the Continentals will be sneaking up on Trin this week.

The next biggest discrepancy I could find was Bates at Trinity, also in 2023. SP+ had Trinity favored 51.2 to 0. The Bants won 52-7 with the Bobbies notching their lone score with 2:05 left in the game.

SP+ remains perfect on the season at 15-0, but as we all saw, there were two near upsets. I think this is the week the game on the field outsmarts the computer projection. Game of the Week is clearly Midd @ Amherst which SP+ essentially sees as a pick 'em but with the slightest of margins in favor of the Mammoths. I like the Panthers on the road. Bowdoin and Bates likely have the next best shot at pulling a road upset. 

Here's how the model projects Week 4 in the NESCAC:

Bowdoin 13 @ Tufts 26.6

Colby 3.1 @ Wesleyan 40.5

Middlebury 19.2 @ Amherst 19.7

Hamilton 2.6 @ Trinity 54.3

Bates 9.8 @ Williams 30.5

Here's how the NESCAC ranks nationally per the SP+ rating (last week's ranking in parenthesis):
13. Trinity (22)
38. Wesleyan (33)
96. Middlebury (115)
102. Amherst (120)
127. Williams (92)
146. Tufts (144)
179. Colby (161)
187. Bowdoin (186)
193. Hamilton (207)
199. Bates (206)

What a finish in Lewiston! We came this close to Bates and Hamilton winning on the same day. When's the last time that happened?

Also, can we please make it mandatory to have one NESCAC night game every week?

Looks like there might only be one team who's a cut above... 

Wesleyan was about to pull another Wesleyan and Hamilton, who had moved the ball at will all day long, punted the ball away on a 4th & 2 near midfield with less than 2:00 to play. Just an absolutely brutal loss for the Continentals but the Cards somehow find a way to win another one.

None of us are batting 1.000 and certainly we're all entitled to our opinions.

If you'd like to take point differential as the metric for determining which teams are a cut above; the average point differential per game for NESCAC champions since 2000 is +17.7. If Trinity wins Saturday by 7 then their average margin of victory so far this season would be +23.3.

The lowest point differential by a league champ was the 2013 Amherst squad at just +9.4 points per game. The highest was the 2004 Bantams at an eye-popping +32.3 points per game. However, to your earlier point the second best point differential was the 2023 Trinity team that lost at Middlebury. Those Panthers finished with an average point differential of just +12.9. Trinity was the far more dominant team that season... but not that day!

I guess what I'm saying is both things can be true... I do think Trinity and Wesleyan are a cut above this year. But also... any given Saturday! Good luck with those pesky Mules this weekend.

Quote from: MapleBBQChicken on October 01, 2026, 01:26:30 PMFor my money, Trinity wins this weekend. But was a 20 point home win against Colby so much more impressive than Williams' 12 point win in Waterville? And how much credit do you get for beating the Lynskey-less Bobcats? I'm just not seeing where the collective confidence is coming from.

On a separate note, if bold predictions are what you want, how about OT in Vermont? I hope I'm wrong, but I think that one will be a very close game.

Colby's first score against Trinity came on a play where the defender fell down in coverage. Sure, it still counts but it isn't exactly a strategy teams can count on replicating. Their second score came with 1:46 left in the game against Trin's 2nd/3rd string defense. The Bants rolled up 473 yards of offense and held Colby to 291 (75 of which came on the busted play). Trinity dominated the game start to finish.

Against Williams, Colby led into the 2nd quarter and it was a 6 point game with 1:56 left to play. The Ephs had just 54 more total yards than the Mules. Williams was the better team but those two games were vastly different contests.

Add in the fact that Williams has lost their best player and the game is being played in The Coop (where Trinity has only lost 6 times in the past quarter century) and I'd say that's likely where the collective confidence is coming from.

Quote from: MapleBBQChicken on September 30, 2026, 05:22:27 PMI think as a group we need to pump the brakes on the whole 'two horse race' conclusion. It is true that Wesleyan and Trinity have been the most impressive teams so far, but everyone who has ever watched NESCAC football knows that all it takes is one Saturday to completely shake up the narrative.

A couple examples from recent years in case we've forgotten how quickly things change...

Week 5, 2023
The 3-1 Middlebury Panthers travel to Hartford to face the 4-0 Chickens. To date, all of Midd's wins have come against teams with losing records, and their most recent result is a super ugly 12-10 win in Williamstown. Trinity, by contrast, has not yet played a close game and has scored with ease on everyone they've faced. Board veterans Lumber and Nescacman set the line at Bantams -17 and -14, respectively.
Midd wins 20-15 at the Coop, keeping the home team out of the end zone completely. They go on to win the NESCAC title.

Week 6, 2024
Middlebury is 4-1 coming off a big win over the Bantams and is traveling to Lewiston for what we all assume to be a much easier game. Wesleyan is also 4-1, having lost to Bates and just squeaked by Colby in OT. Boardsters who are not loyal to either team call Nescacman a homer for keeping the Cardinals at #1 in his power rankings, and praise for the Panthers' rapidly improving passing offense is abundant. The line is set at Midd -17.
Middlebury loses the game outright to Bates, and the Wesleyan squad that was nearly universally considered to be leaking oil wins out for the NESCAC title.

I could go on, but I think you get the idea. My point is that we just don't know. And those were midseason misconceptions; we've only played two games this year. From my perspective, the league (and the autobid) are very much up for grabs beyond just Connecticut.

I don't recall anyone saying we should cancel the rest of the season and just have Trinity and Wesleyan play for the title. We've all pretty much said what you said "Wesleyan and Trinity have been the most impressive teams so far".

Of course upsets can happen. Trinity lost to Colby last year and Wesleyan has dropped a game to one of the Maine teams in each of the past four years. That doesn't change the fact that Trin and Wes are clearly at the top of the league this season. Most (all?) who've watched the games, as well as the computer ratings, see them leading the field by a wide margin.

Could Trinity lose to Williams this weekend, or at Tufts, or at Middlebury? Of course. Could Wesleyan drop yet another head-scratcher to a Maine school or a Little Three game? Absolutely. But it's disingenuous to pretend that they're not heavy favorites in every game they play until the regular season finale. Also, it's not just about the Bants and Cards; I think given how close teams 3-7 are even one upset loss by Trinity or Wesleyan would still put them a game clear of the rest of the pack once they start beating up on each other.

If we're not going to talk honestly about who the best teams are then what are we discussing here, the U.S. News rankings, great spots to eat in Clinton, NY? Kudos to Ephsfan1 for making a bold pick. Anyone else willing to agree?

Quote from: Nescacman on September 29, 2026, 07:21:47 AMJust to level set expectations and get everyone used to the new reality, all that really matters as far as rankings and where your favorite team sits nationally relative to the NCAA tournament is NPI. Although we are about two weeks from the NCAA publishing their first official NPI ranking, there are sites that mathematically calculate a close approximation (their words, not ours) NPI ranking using similar formula's that the NCAA uses. SP+ and all of the other national rankings are interesting, but really meaningless.

Here is one of those simulated NPI rankings:

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

You can complain all you want but this is what the NCAA will use to select the 2026 play-off bracket. As a reminder, there are 29 automatically qualifiers ("AQ") and 11 at-large bids. As of right now, NPI only shows one team from the NESCAC qualifying, our AQ. Still a ton of football to play, obviously, but interesting.

NM

Great data Nescacman... it's a strange new world we're all entering and there's certainly a learning curve. For further illustration of how the NESCAC appears to be a two-horse race after just two weeks, take a look at the Hansen Ratings (which by the way projects a different NESCAC NPI leader) and their projected odds of earning a Pool A (automatic qualifying bid by winning the conference):

Trinity	49.5%
Wesleyan	37.0%
Williams	5.9%
Amherst	5.5%
Middlebury	1.7%
Tufts	0.3%
Colby	0.0%
Bowdoin	0.0%
Bates	0.0%
Hamilton	0.0%

The drop-off after the top two is staggering and frankly seems a little harsh, especially given that none of the top four teams have even played one another yet. But at the same time I can't say I really disagree at this point. We'll obviously know more about Trinity and Williams after this week.

As previously mentioned, SP+ went 5-0 again over the weekend. At face value that's not all that impressive given each of the favorites won comfortably. However, across all five games the model correctly predicted the average margin of victory within an average of 6 points. Not bad.

Nothing changed my views that Trinity and Wesleyan are a cut above the middle tier and it'll be another long season in Lewiston, Clinton, and Brunswick. We'll see if the Ephs can prove me wrong in The Coop this Saturday. Williams is 2nd in the league in rushing but now face a Bantam defense which has allowed an absurd 16 yards per game on the ground. The Eph defense is nearly as stingy, allowing a similarly miniscule 36.5 rush yards per game. Trin leads the league with 239.5 rushing yards per game with 7 touchdowns on the ground. Williams is second with 207.5 rush yards per game and 4 TDs.

If the ground game turns out to be a wash and the passing game determines the outcome you'd have to like Trinity's chances. Jaxon Carroll has been excellent through two games while Owen McHugh completed just 50% of his passes for 53 yards, threw a pick, and took two sacks in his lone start. It is worth noting though that McHugh also ran for 84 yards and a TD.

Here's how the model projects Week 3 in the NESCAC:

Bowdoin 5.6 @ Amherst 26.5

Colby 11.2 @ Middlebury 24

Tufts 32.2 @ Bates 18

Wesleyan 47.1 @ Hamilton 4.5

Williams 10.5 @ Trinity 33.3


Here's how the NESCAC ranks nationally per the SP+ rating (last week's ranking in parenthesis):
22. Trinity (34)
33. Wesleyan (41)
92. Williams (97)
115. Middlebury (133)
120. Amherst (131)
144. Tufts (112)
161. Colby (159)
186. Bowdoin (188)
206. Bates (189)
207. Hamilton (199)

Quote from: nescac1 on September 22, 2026, 05:10:53 PMI just don't understand how the model can possibly rank NESCAC against other teams when there is literally NO data available to do so.  Once NESCAC teams participate in the tournament, then, sure.  But until then, it feels wildly speculative.  Could Trinity be the 31st best team?  Sure.  Could then be the 15th best or 50th best?  That seems equally plausible! 

Ranking is probably the wrong word when looking at SP+ because it's just a listing of the model's overall rating score. Here's a more in-depth overview of the SP+ model. Basically, it's designed to track overall team efficiency against the opponents they do play rather than predict how they would fare against teams they don't play.

The five main data points are efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers. There's much more that goes into it and no one is saying it's perfect but I'm continually impressed with the overall accuracy of the projections. It will be fun to finally see how the best of the NESCAC compares to the rest of DIII. I remain optimistic.


After Week 1, my overall thoughts are that Trinity at Wesleyan are on a collision course for another NESCAC title game on November 14 in The Coop. Especially with the key injuries in Williamstown, I don't think there's a consensus number 3 team and I wouldn't be shocked by any results including Williams, Tufts, Amherst, Middlebury, or Colby. Meanwhile, Bates, Bowdoin, and Hamilton could pull an upset against any one of the teams listed above... but more likely they will be battling each other to avoid a 2, 1 win (or even winless) season.

Obviously, there's plenty of season left. Wesleyan has a history of losing an annual headscratcher and Trinity plays both Middlebury and Tufts on the road where they've had struggles in the recent past. But given the parity between the middle and bottom tier teams I think even 1 loss by Trinity or Wesleyan leading up to the finale puts them in the drivers seat to claim the first ever NESCAC NCAA bid.

The SP+ model went 5-0 in Week 1 of NESCAC play. Here are the Week 2 score projections:

Amherst 29.7 @ Hamilton 14.7

Middlebury 24.3 @ Bowdoin 13.5

Trinity 42.0 @ Bates 5.6

Tufts 17.1 @ Wesleyan 37.6

Williams 23.7 @ Colby 13.5

Completely opposite from last week; the computer likes the road teams outside of Wes. Similar to last week it's projecting lopsided scores. For Week 1 the average projected point differential across all five games was 21.4 (the actual was 15.2). This week the average point differential is 18.6 with Williams @ Colby and Middlebury @ Colby projected to be the closest games.

Tufts and Wesleyan are the only unbeaten teams facing off and is a solid choice for game of the week. Disappointed that it won't be a night game at Andrus.

Here's how the NESCAC ranks nationally per the SP+ rating (last weeks ranking in parenthesis):
34. Trinity (35)
41. Wesleyan (57)
97. Williams (92)
112. Tufts (119)
131. Amherst (140)
133. Middlebury (98)
159. Colby (148)
188. Bowdoin (195)
189. Bates (192)
199. Hamilton (200)

What are the added expenses of having 15 extra kids practice with the team? They're not traveling. They're not even getting a uniform for home games. They've already got the equipment and have been practicing all preseason. I'm not buying that NESCAC schools are too poor to afford a dozen or so kids the opportunity to practice and be a part of a team.