Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 28, 2025, 01:33:41 PM

Quote from: emma17 on November 25, 2025, 05:58:07 PMSo UWW vs DePauw. I saw a bit of their game vs. Wabash- they sure looked like they know their way around a football field- pass and run. QB w awesome numbers.

I have to/like to believe the UWRF experience will help UWW in this game.

Yeah, this would be a layup for UWW back in their hey day. Nowadays, this is very winnable for DePauw. No longer taking UWW wins for granted.

Just hope UWw comes to play.

Even if this would have been a layup back in our "hey day", I'm pretty sure you would have talked yourself into being nervous by kickoff! 

Quote from: olddog on November 26, 2025, 11:55:17 AMFred....how many point favorite do you have RF over CU?

You are correct about the size issues it is a huge delta, CU is smallest good team on the west coast, always have been. In watching a little tape on RF, the only thing that will be interesting is CU speed, how much faster are they then RF...RF should win this one. Will CU team speed give RF an issue and how will RF coaches adjust, most teams try to run straight at them, play action etc.

I don't think UW-RF will have to adjust much. They do what they do. The burden is on CU to try to stop them. Trust me, it won't be easy.

Quote from: MUC 2008 on November 25, 2025, 10:33:56 PM

Quote from: Dr. Acula on November 25, 2025, 10:02:46 PMAt a minimum VK is on deck to be paid 7 figures to be a DC at a P4.  People can make nepo jokes but VK can flat out coach.  Toledo sucked on defense before he got there.  And as has been mentioned for Thanksgiving purposes he has a ring so gets a prime seat at the main table.

His 2016 coaching job needs to be studied - Mount had essentially a brand new roster and Mount went to the semis and lost to a team who ended up being ineligible.

VK has always been a great coach who stepped into "impossible to fill" shoes in his dad and kinda filled them. No one is Larry, but he did a great job given all the circumstances. Taking Mount to the semi's in 20116 was really impressive.  The whole "...lost to a team who ended up being ineligible." thing is a bit besides the point. The CRU had a great team that year and I'm pretty sure they would have been just as great had the violation not occurred.

Quote from: art76 on November 24, 2025, 09:04:53 PMI think there are at least two possibilities concerning how the MIAC does this year in the playoffs. Both the Johnnies and the Royals literally rip through their opponents this weekend showcasing how good they are as teams, (and how good the MIAC is), or they squeak out wins and/or are defeated and everyone will jump on the bandwagon of how weak the MIAC is/was this year. Obviously, the supporters of our teams are hoping for the former.

I don't do ESPN+ so I am not able to put eyes on opposing teams to get a gander at how they might fare against BU, but I don't think the Kohawks will have the answer for the Royals multi-faceted offense. Further, I have come around throughout the year on the defensive line play. While anything can happen in a football game, it is my opinion that Bethel and St. John's will both be playing WIAC teams next weekend.

If the Royals and Johnnies are what they usually are, they will roll this weekend. Next week looks to have a lot of fun games all across the board if the favorites take care of business this weekend.

Quote from: '95 Blugold on November 22, 2025, 06:26:59 PMStout wins the Isthmus Bowl today over Wash U 31-23.

Congrats to the Blue Devils on a nice win. Way to represent the WIAC.  Beating the #3 team in the #3 ranked  conference by D3football.com is a good look! Wash U is a good team and had a really nice year, coming into the game at 8-2. Their only losses were to North Central and a four point loss to Wheaton.

Quote from: hazzben on November 20, 2025, 08:43:59 PM

Quote from: USee on November 18, 2025, 05:41:56 PMFor the Thunder this weekend they face Crown who is 7-3. Crown runs the ball 75% of the time and have averaged 5.5 yds per rush for 230 yds per game for the 16th best rush offense in the D3 land. Their pass offense accounts for 835 yds on the season (74-154-5 int, 48%) and 83 yds per game. The Thunder will have to stop the run this weekend.

Defensively they have found their footing in turnovers. 9 fumbles and 14 interceptions and they are top 25 in the nation in Turnover Margin. They are top 15 in getting off the field on 3rd down and 9th in red zone defense.

They lost to a 1-9 team and a 4-6 team and their best wins are over 5-5 Martin Luther (2x). They don't have any wins over a team with a winning record (Simpson is the only team they played that has a winning record).

I was at the game between now 4-6 UNW and Crown that the Storming Thunder lost (don't ask how or why I was, but I was there  ). Incredibly underwhelming is how I would describe it. Two very incomplete teams. Crown's QB is a good athlete, so so arm talent, with an even more meh OL. In any other conference his rushing stats would be significantly deflated. I believe during that game he came into it Top 5 in individual rushing, I was expecting to see Michael Vick from VTech days. It wasn't that.

Not sure the best way to capture it, but at every level on O / D there are guys out there who just don't look like college football players. Certainly guys who'd never see the field in the CCIW. Wheaton will absolutely dominate the LOS.

Not having seen Crown, your description is exactly what I would have imagined. This could have been a great opportunity for Wheaton to reward/develop the back half of the roster if not for the playoff roster limits.

*Hazzbeen, you get HUGE D-III Geek Points for attending that game!

Quote from: USee on November 18, 2025, 05:41:56 PMFor the Thunder this weekend they face Crown who is 7-3. Crown runs the ball 75% of the time and have averaged 5.5 yds per rush for 230 yds per game for the 16th best rush offense in the D3 land. Their pass offense accounts for 835 yds on the season (74-154-5 int, 48%) and 83 yds per game. The Thunder will have to stop the run this weekend.

Defensively they have found their footing in turnovers. 9 fumbles and 14 interceptions and they are top 25 in the nation in Turnover Margin. They are top 15 in getting off the field on 3rd down and 9th in red zone defense.

They lost to a 1-9 team and a 4-6 team and their best wins are over 5-5 Martin Luther (2x). They don't have any wins over a team with a winning record (Simpson is the only team they played that has a winning record).

 

I think this game is a candidate for biggest mismatch of all D-III games this year. Have we ever had a playoff team that lost to a 1-9 team? Congrats to Crown for making the playoffs. I'm sure this is a huge deal to them and I respect the heck out of what they've accomplished. But this draw...yikes!

Quote from: palum on November 19, 2025, 10:20:24 PMPlatteville over comes North Central 66-60 in OT. Bristol Lewis leads Platteville with  13 points. Platteville won the game in the paint and with points off of rebounds

Sounds like a foreshadowing of their quarterfinal football game coming up in a few weeks here.

Quote from: raiderpa on November 18, 2025, 06:08:57 PMI do not know how any of the Wisconsin schools get through the season healthy. The relative size and talent in the league makes most weeks, from my perspective, a physical battle.  Most D3 teams may only see one or two teams that really beat them up physically, while the WIAC has five or six weeks to get seriously banged up. Mount has a couple key guys that have been missing for a couple weeks, but I hope to see them on the 29th. I think that Mount has a Stagg capable offense, but the D has shown some kinks that are worrisome.  We may have to rely on winning high scoring shootouts.

Most don't, to be honest. From what I heard, La Crosse lost 6 guys against Eau Claire. I'm not saying they were all season ending, but they weren't available the next week when they went to Platteville and lost by 17. When UW-W went to River Falls and our top corner went out with an ankle, that meant three of our top 4 corners were out at the time, including both projected starters. Not an amazing time to play UW-RF. It's truly a war of attrition. The physicality top to bottom in the conference is brutal tbh.

Regarding the La Crosse QB situation. If starting QB Kyle Haas can't go, they may be down to #3. While a lot of healing can take place in two weeks, I am pretty sure Pat said on a recent podcast that their #2 guy was in street clothes. From what I've heard, they are a bit beat up and have been for awhile. Having said that, their back ups are big and talented and have now gained experience. This game won't be a cake walk for Hope by any means. If the Eagles get by Hope, I would think they will need Haas to even have a puncher's chance against NCC.

Quote from: USee on November 18, 2025, 09:04:52 AMTo be clear, if I'm reading correctly what Bleed is saying is that if the games went strictly by seeding neither UWW nor DePauw should host (the top 16 should be 2nd round hosts) but geography (which is code for "costs") won out and UWW and DePauw were paired together and then the higher seed of that matchup was declared the host.

Yes! This! Thank you, USee!

Quote from: emma17 on November 17, 2025, 03:39:56 PM

Quote from: USee on November 16, 2025, 05:49:36 PMNot sure I would consider DePauw a favorable home game. They are much better than usual this year. Took JCU to the wire. They have an explosive offense and a top 10 run defense. I think UWP got a better draw than UWW.

I agree DePauw is a tough draw.

A question for you as you follow closely (or Pat if he sees this): I am a bit confused about something I thought I heard on the ATN podcast. I thought Pat asked why DePauw has to travel to UWW. In the NPI rankings I see, UWW is 18 and DePauw is 21.

I'm sure I'm missing something, any idea?

Pat didn't ask why DePauw has to travel to UW-W. If travel wasn't a factor and everthing rode on the NPI rankings, being ranked 18th in this format of a tournament wouldn't normally gain a team a home game. That would go to the top 16 seeds. But as we know, other than establishing the field, the NPI isn't the "be all, end all". Geography still gets that title. UW-W benefitted from that this time around. It isn't scandalous or anything, but it was a good question for Pat to ask on behalf of those teams in the top 16 who didn't get to host.

Quote from: CardinalAlum on November 15, 2025, 09:39:02 PM

Quote from: NCC2010 on November 15, 2025, 04:01:18 PMNightmare scenario for NCC fans like myself with Johns Hopkins losing. Likely means UWRF in the quarters and if they get by them then a trip to Alliance in the semis...

UWRF showing as the 6 wouldn't match up with NCC. Road trip to Canton for the semis will be fun again!

A bit presumptuous, no?

Quote from: emma17 on November 13, 2025, 10:24:40 PM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 13, 2025, 09:13:46 AM

Quote from: emma17 on November 12, 2025, 06:40:39 PM

Quote from: hazzben on November 12, 2025, 03:35:26 PMOne forgotten piece about Cortland upsetting NCC was the reality NCC had zero confidence kicking a FG in the Stagg. They had an elite team with one glaring weakness. Multiple 4th downs in FG range where they had no choice but to go for the 1st rather than the points. That's not this year's version of NCC.

If I remember correctly, NCC had some key injuries as well. But to Cortland's credit, they put up 38 based on the grit and ability of the QB and some skilled receivers. Not much of a run game as I recall.
Maybe UWRF gets the same lightening in a bottle.

QB Zac Boyes had 16 carries for 123 yards.

I'm aware of how well Boyes did running the ball- and throwing. But he's the QB- the guy I'm comparing Blaha to. A running game to me is the ball being carried by running backs. I don't think Cortland had much of a running game vs. NCC, which I'm guessing would be the case if UWRF played them. As w Cortland, yardage on the ground would have to come from the QB making plays.
Imo, a team is playing w fire if it needs to rely on the QB to be the primary running threat in terms of number of carries.

This is old school thinking (full disclosure, I agree with you. But the way the game is changing, it feels like we may be quickly becoming dinosaurs).

Quote from: USee on November 09, 2025, 02:10:24 PMYep. 4 WIAC teams is almost a lock if those other 3 all win. Its all about the math. No subjectivity involved. Logan Hansen has about an 80% chance of 4 WIAC teams in the playoffs.

This. "It's all about the math. No subjectivity involved." While I have very mixed opinions about this, in this instance it serves the WIAC very well. That doesn't make it a good system, but it definitely brings clarity. You can literally plug different results of upcoming games into the calculator made available by Hansen or the one by Frank Rossi and run the calculation in terms of what it would mean in the top 40 NPI. If La Crosse, Platteville, and Whitewater all win. then they are in along with River Falls. And I believe that to be true regardless of any other result nation-wide.

I just ran a projection of all of the higher ranked NPI teams winning this coming weekend. If that is what happens, the WIAC seeds will be:

River Falls #6
Platteville #13
UW-W #15
La Crosse #20

River Falls is "in". Platteville, UW-W, and La Crosse are in "win and they are in" positions. If any of them lose, their odds decrease dramatically., especially Whitewater and La Crosse.

The odds of making the playoffs*:    If they Win              If they lose
Platteville                                                  100%                       88.8%
UW-W                                                       100%.                      18.4%
La Crosse                                                  100%.                         0%

*Per tool provided by Logan Hansen