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Messages - Teddy_Ballgame

#1
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 11, 2025, 09:19:31 AM
Updated SCIAC rankings going into the ULV PP showdown for the conference title:

8. La Verne
26. CMS
30. Pomona-Pitzer
43. Redlands
57. CLU

Top 3 are in, CLU is out. Does someone smarter than me know where the bubble line is? Redlands have a shot?
#2
Whew. Long, exhausting, exhilarating day of baseball. Scraped one out against CMS. Scraped one out against La Verne. Back tomorrow morning for all the marbles.

Go Hens.
#3
What a game yesterday between ULV and CMS. Leopards used 9 arms in 11 innings and won on a walk off knock.

Pomona took care of business against Redlands. Redlands got their win in the play-in but can't feel too comfortable right now (though I haven't seen most up to date NPI).

Sixth Street Rivalry game today at ULV for the chance to play ULV. Hens and Stags 2-2 this year. So much riding on this game. Given how good these offenses are, how deep into their staffs each are, and the nature of this rivalry, I fully expect a 3-2 pitchers duel.

PP probably in with a win?
#4
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 07, 2025, 05:44:19 PM
Quote from: DickWhitman on May 07, 2025, 10:39:52 AMIs it me, or were there no Region 10 players on the D3 team of the week this week? I'm sure there had to be at least a player or two that deserved a spot on the list.

!!!!!! I think we $$ all $$ know $$ why!

In seriousness, I did find it interesting that the prior D3 TotW had Berdelis from Whittier as one of the SPs, but not Jack Wiessinger from PP, when Wiessinger was the SCIAC pitcher of the week over Berdelis. Wiessinger threw a 7 inning no-no against a top 25 team in Cal Lu, which seems imminently deserving. Of course, Berdelis was spectacular in his own right, but against the last place Oxy Tigers.

All-in-all, for these national awards it's a lot easier to identify deserving snubs, than un-deserving awardees. Probably have to chop that up to SID not campaigning hard enough.
#5
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 07, 2025, 05:29:54 PM
Quote from: GU1999 on May 07, 2025, 12:48:22 PMI read this and laughed thinking to myself, this guy is doing a pretty funny bit.  Then i read the response and now I am not sure.  Anyway, thanks for the laugh i guess.

I'm glad someone on here has a sense of humor
#6
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 07, 2025, 12:50:52 AM
Quote from: Ron Boerger on May 06, 2025, 06:52:01 PMWhat's under the hood is totally published.  Please leave the unfounded conspiracy theories at home.

Oh all of a sudden it's a "conspiracy theory" to be skeptical of a bunch of math some nerds at the NCAA put together? The same NCAA that just settled a multi-BILLION dollar lawsuit primarily alleging that D3 baseball players weren't getting paid enough? Yeah, sure, I'm the crazy one.

Oh and what's that? Per the NCAA's own FAQs, Regional Advisory Committees are still in charge of "ensuring that results are populating
correctly into the database"?? [*SARCASTICALLY*] Hmmmm. No chance for malfeasance there!

Anyway, SCIAC play-in tomorrow between Redlands and Cal Lu. Winner gets La Verne, loser gets to sit at home praying that the NPI looks favorably upon them in a few days. And that whatever formula is being used (which, again, is a COMPLETE mystery) isn't being abused by RACs taking blank envelopes full of cash from the east coast d3 oligarchy.


#7
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 06, 2025, 01:37:40 PM
Quote from: Riley Zayas on May 05, 2025, 09:03:33 PM
Quote from: Teddy_Ballgame on May 05, 2025, 07:13:58 PM
Quote from: Ron Boerger on May 05, 2025, 06:46:16 PMIt's a strict numerical formula.  The non-pool A teams will be selected in ranked numerical order until no pool C bids remain.

Sure, but who controls the formula, the data it's being fed, and the results it spits out? I won't accept any rankings or values I disgree with unless Frank Pericolosi or Scott Winterburn can replicate the alleged rankings with a calculator and graph paper.

Nobody is "controlling" the formula. It's a numerical formula that has been publicly published to the public. And there is no way for the committee to change that formula in any form or fashion. The data is purely the results of all D3 games, so there's no manual input of any results into the system.

I only say that because the idea that the committee could manipulate data to somehow alter who gets in is just false. As we've seen in fall and winter sports, NPI can be replicated to a T by non-committee members (such as Matt and Zac Snyder and Scott Peterson), which tells you that it's a completely straightforward approach from the NCAA based purely on the NPI information that has been published.

I dunno, still smells fishy to me. Why would a comic book moviemaker be evaluating allegedly "unbiased" numeric numeral formulas involving numbers for D3 baseball rankings? Sounds like they're just trying to slap  a big name on the process to give it credibility.

You say this formula is publicly published to the public. Well, I'm the public, and they didn't publish it to me. And guess what? The SCIAC is comprised completely of private institutions. Maybe that's why they seem to have a target on their back.......

We can go back and forth all day with our opinions about what they're doing behind closed doors with this "formula", but until the NCAA is willing to show us what's under the hood and provide some transparency in the process, I'll keep my head in the sand thank you very much.
#8
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 05, 2025, 07:13:58 PM
Quote from: Ron Boerger on May 05, 2025, 06:46:16 PMIt's a strict numerical formula.  The non-pool A teams will be selected in ranked numerical order until no pool C bids remain.

Sure, but who controls the formula, the data it's being fed, and the results it spits out? I won't accept any rankings or values I disgree with unless Frank Pericolosi or Scott Winterburn can replicate the alleged rankings with a calculator and graph paper.
#9
Quote from: DickWhitman on May 05, 2025, 06:36:12 PMGreat post. I thought the play in game change was dumb, but this year Redlands has a chance to really benefit from it. And they do have that kid that gives you a chance to win every time he steps on the mound.

PP would easily be #1 right now if they had Seo and Hilton. At least IMO. I expect to see a CMS/PP final in the SCIAC this year. Both have the bats to hammer the second and third pitchers of the other teams. While winning Thursday obviously helps, I don't think either team is going to be hurting by going through the loser bracket.

I think the problem with the D3 media is they don't really look at teams and results in great detail. I doubt many of them had any idea Seo and Hilton were out. I'd love to see 4 SCIAC bids. Unfortunately, we're going to need to hope for fewer conference upsets. Did you see that post on X a couple weeks ago about an east coast conference record against other conferences? They dominated others but got smoked by the SCIAC.

Well said.

I think I missed that X post but would love to see it. I'm sure the east coast machinery would hem and haw and attribute those results to early season rust after a hard winter spent indoors. But our lads chose to pursue their post-secondary educations at institutions in climates better suited to year-round access to the baseball diamond; who are any of us to hold their dedication to constant improvement against them?

Nevertheless, four teams would be a coup. At least two SCIAC bubble teams will have 15+ losses, and it'll be difficult to garner too much sympathy for them in that regard if and when they're left out.
#10
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 05, 2025, 06:44:13 PM
SCIAC now boasts 5 teams in the top 50:

8. ULV
20. CMS
38. Redlands
39. PP
48. CLU

Under new SCIAC playoff rules, all 5 still alive with CLU and Redlands meeting Wednesday for a "play-in" game to the double elimination tournament (dumb concept most years, brilliant this year). Lots of possible scenarios, but suspect that the loser of that game is probably out. And the winner of that game and PP need at least a win or two to have any level of comfort. But losses this weekend shouldn't be as harmful as they might be elsewhere in the country given the strength of the field, and wins should help more.

We can only pray our NPI robot overlords aren't as uncomfortable with 15+ loss west coast teams as the biased, corrupt D3 power establishment might be.
#11
SCIAC Tournament is double elimination, with a 4 v. 5 "play-in" game. Dumb format every year but this one, IMO, when we have one game separating 2 through 5 and a big drop-off from 5 to 6. I can definitely see this backfiring in a future scenario with a very strong 4 seed losing a game to a mediocre 5 with a great Friday arm. More likely year-to-year than having 5 teams who can actually still be competing for playoff spots.

Wednesday (play-in):
G1 (5)Redlands at (4)CLU

Thursday:
G2 (5)Redlands/(4)CLU at (1) ULV
G3 (3) CMS at (2) PP

Friday:
G4 Winner G2 v. Winner G3 [higher seed hosts]
G5 Loser G2 v. Loser G3 [higher seed hosts]

Saturday [all games at ULV]:
G6 Loser G4 v. Winner G5
G7 Winner G6 v. Winner G4

Sunday [if necessary, at ULV]:
G8 winner take all

My Sagehens keep defying expectations; incredible what they've done without their top 2 starters (Hilton and Seo) who are all-region if not AA quality arms. Not to mention a lot of star bats spending chunks of time dealing with their own injuries. Love their chances given the resiliency* they've shown. Though they'll need to lean heavy on the bats if they have to come through the loser's bracket.

*No mention of it on this thread, but two weekends ago against Cal Lu, in the biggest series of the year, they blew a 4 run lead in the bottom of the 9th and lost 9-8 on Friday. They were looking like the 5 seed at that point unless they could basically run the table. They came out Sunday and threw a no-hitter en route to an 18-1 win in the morning, and followed it up with a walk-off bomb to win the afternoon. Then took care of business this last weekend against Oxy to sneak into the 2 seed.

Will the east coast D3 media industrial complex have the balls to acknowledge the work the PP staff has done this year?  Will the fancy new NPI algorithm have the courage to do the right thing and give the SCIAC four at-large bids? Not holding my breath.
#12
Fun 9-3 win for Pomona-Pitzer over DI Dartmouth College on Monday. Hens were in control the entire way, and this was a day after I watched Dartmouth beat the snot out of LMU for the second day in a row. PP now has transitive property wins over USC, Arizona, Michigan, and a bunch of others  ;D
#13
Quote from: RFBredux on October 08, 2023, 08:51:02 AM
Redlands loss to a bad Pomona team at home was as bad as I can remember. The team was unprepared for the second week in a row with terrible play on offense and special teams.

I've seen enough of the Jim Good era. It's time for new leadership at Redlands.

The Pomona writeup indicated that this was Pomona's first ever win at Ted Runner Stadium. That's... unreal. Though, having watched PP while I was at school there, it's believable.
#14
Chirp Chirp! Sagehens sweep the regular season Sixth Street Rivalry, as they beat CMS 75-68 at home. Brendan Mora had 20 points 14 rebounds 5 assists and 3 steals for PP. Didn't get the chance to watch, but the box score shows a pretty even matchup. Neither team shot particularly well, and the biggest difference may have been second chance points (PP had 12 offensive boards to CMS's 5).

With the win, PP also clinched the SCIAC regular season title, finishing 15-1 in conference play. This is the Sagehens' fourth consecutive regular season championship after CMS's run of at least a share of 8 of the prior 10. They'll play CLU at home on Friday in the conference semifinals. I'd think and hope that this win cements their spot in the NCAA tournament, already having been 3rd in the regional rankings released before the game, but would be best to remove any doubt.
#15
Congrats to the Sagehens on their third consecutive SCIAC Championship! Off to Chicago to play Northwestern (Minn)

https://www.sagehens.com/sports/mbkb/2021-22/releases/20220227u9hhit

And glad to see the SCIAC get some love with an at-large bid for Chapman after losing to PP in the conference 'ship yesterday.

As a reminder the Hens made it to the Sweet 16 in 2020 before the tournament was shutdown, beating Emory in the second round on an insane buzzer-beater three: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/29120254?fbclid=IwAR1GaH_rGgFuD6-pCyYeOeBVpoKdUcreNNEywIRzMdQzyifkXU-XszOQkIw