BB: Top Teams in West Region

[Teddy_Ballgame]

Is it me, or were there no Region 10 players on the D3 team of the week this week? I'm sure there had to be at least a player or two that deserved a spot on the list.

!!!!!! I think we $$ all $$ know $$ why!

In seriousness, I did find it interesting that the prior D3 TotW had Berdelis from Whittier as one of the SPs, but not Jack Wiessinger from PP, when Wiessinger was the SCIAC pitcher of the week over Berdelis. Wiessinger threw a 7 inning no-no against a top 25 team in Cal Lu, which seems imminently deserving. Of course, Berdelis was spectacular in his own right, but against the last place Oxy Tigers.

All-in-all, for these national awards it's a lot easier to identify deserving snubs, than un-deserving awardees. Probably have to chop that up to SID not campaigning hard enough.

[Bmo]

The bubble just got a little NJAC'd up.  TCNJ beats Kean and likely moves into the upper 30s NPI.  Camden is trouncing Rowan.  NJAC will probably grab 4 at-large bids.

[DickWhitman]

Is it me, or were there no Region 10 players on the D3 team of the week this week? I'm sure there had to be at least a player or two that deserved a spot on the list.

!!!!!! I think we $$ all $$ know $$ why!

In seriousness, I did find it interesting that the prior D3 TotW had Berdelis from Whittier as one of the SPs, but not Jack Wiessinger from PP, when Wiessinger was the SCIAC pitcher of the week over Berdelis. Wiessinger threw a 7 inning no-no against a top 25 team in Cal Lu, which seems imminently deserving. Of course, Berdelis was spectacular in his own right, but against the last place Oxy Tigers.

All-in-all, for these national awards it's a lot easier to identify deserving snubs, than un-deserving awardees. Probably have to chop that up to SID not campaigning hard enough.

I was wondering if it was D3 baseball scouring games/stats for the team or if it was dependent on the SID nominating/campaigning.

I agree on the PP snub. Terrible

[DickWhitman]

Looks like CLU's season is over. Redlands probably needs 1 more win to feel comfortable given some of the other scores today.

[DickWhitman]

With the new RPI it looks like Redlands punched their ticket. I'd still like at least 1 more win if I were them though. PP definitely needs a win to feel comfortable.

[DickWhitman]

Well, after the Redlands loss the new RPI has them dropping 4 spots to 39. Seems like a win is necessary for them to move on. PP drops 6 spots and absolutely needs a win today. Seems weird the formula only drops Whitewater 1 spot after losing to a 100+ team and these two drop much further after losing to top 10 or 20 teams.

[Bmo]

Towards the top of the list, there is a greater spread between teams. Notice that Johns Hopkins is 66.175 and Denison is 63.436.  As teams bunch up towards the bubble, you will see some greater movement game by game.

[DickWhitman]

I saw that. Just seems odd and something that should be looked at with the formula in the offseason.

I saw a couple of posts on X yesterday highlighting the fact CLU is a top 25 team in the polls and 50+ NPI. I have no doubt CLU would take a series against at least half the teams ahead of them, the formula worked against them in every way imaginable this year.

[Bmo]

If you want to do a quick and dirty estimate on how a single game result will impact a team's NPI before the report, you can take a teams current NPI * Total Number of Games Played in their Adjusted W/L, then add the win or loss value of the game just played (factoring in how that result will impact the other team's NPI), and divide that by the Total Games played + 1.  Then look at where that NPI ranks on the list. 

For example, if Pomona beats Redlands today.  Current NPI 56.637 X 41 games = 2322.117 + (70.140 Win Value + 2.322 QWB) * .985 (rough estimate on how much Redland's NPI drops due to the loss) = 2393.49 / 42 Games = 56.987.  Right now, that puts them around 39. 

Many other factors are in play, such as secondary games and other results that change rankings, but this gives a ballpark on how a single result can impact the ranking. 

[Bmo]

I saw that. Just seems odd and something that should be looked at with the formula in the offseason.

I saw a couple of posts on X yesterday highlighting the fact CLU is a top 25 team in the polls and 50+ NPI. I have no doubt CLU would take a series against at least half the teams ahead of them, the formula worked against them in every way imaginable this year.

I do think Region X's bottom-tier rankings are impacted much more than other regions, which in turn impacts the upper-tier team's NPI.  In other regions, you just don't see upper-tier teams take losses to bottom-tier teams at the same volume that you see in Region X.  This is likely due to geography, which requires teams to schedule a higher percentage of their games in the region.  The weaker teams get pounded, but they would likely be mid-tier in other regions.

[Ralph Turner]

I saw that. Just seems odd and something that should be looked at with the formula in the offseason.

I saw a couple of posts on X yesterday highlighting the fact CLU is a top 25 team in the polls and 50+ NPI. I have no doubt CLU would take a series against at least half the teams ahead of them, the formula worked against them in every way imaginable this year.

I have a different thought, and this applies especially to the NWC.

Most teams in Region X have one very good pitcher. If the coach decides to pitch his #1 versus the other team's #2, then there is the chance for the upset. In the NWC, I think that may 2 or even really balanced pitching staffs

I do think Region X's bottom-tier rankings are impacted much more than other regions, which in turn impacts the upper-tier team's NPI.  In other regions, you just don't see upper-tier teams take losses to bottom-tier teams at the same volume that you see in Region X.  This is likely due to geography, which requires teams to schedule a higher percentage of their games in the region.  The weaker teams get pounded, but they would likely be mid-tier in other regions.

I have a different thought, and this applies especially to the NWC.

Most teams in Region X have one very good pitcher. If the coach decides to pitch his #1 versus the other team's #2, then there is the chance for the upset. In the NWC, I think that many teams  have 2 very good pitchers or even really balanced and deep pitching staffs.

The NWC always has 6-7 teams contending for a playoff slot in the post-season tourney..

[DickWhitman]

I saw that. Just seems odd and something that should be looked at with the formula in the offseason.

I saw a couple of posts on X yesterday highlighting the fact CLU is a top 25 team in the polls and 50+ NPI. I have no doubt CLU would take a series against at least half the teams ahead of them, the formula worked against them in every way imaginable this year.

I do think Region X's bottom-tier rankings are impacted much more than other regions, which in turn impacts the upper-tier team's NPI.  In other regions, you just don't see upper-tier teams take losses to bottom-tier teams at the same volume that you see in Region X.  This is likely due to geography, which requires teams to schedule a higher percentage of their games in the region.  The weaker teams get pounded, but they would likely be mid-tier in other regions.

I agree. I've watched a lot of Caltech games. I have no doubt if they had 1 more decent pitcher they'd be competitive in a lot of east coast conferences.

[Bmo]

I agree that matchups matter. However, the NWC is a good example of the NPI floor being artificially low in region X due to a lack of out-of-region scheduling. The conference, as a whole, went 10-3 out of region X, with the last-place team, George Fox, going 5-1.  On the field, George Fox is probably more than a match for any team non-region X in the 200s, but they are currently 288 NPI. 

This is certainly hypothetical, but I do find it odd that no other top teams in different regions have "hiccup" losses to sub-300 teams like region X. Maybe those teams are better focused, better coached, or have more depth. Or maybe region X opponents are better than their NPI.

[Ralph Turner]

I agree that matchups matter. However, the NWC is a good example of the NPI floor being artificially low in region X due to a lack of out-of-region scheduling. The conference, as a whole, went 10-3 out of region X, with the last-place team, George Fox, going 5-1.  On the field, George Fox is probably more than a match for any team non-region X in the 200s, but they are currently 288 NPI. 

This is certainly hypothetical, but I do find it odd that no other top teams in different regions have "hiccup" losses to sub-300 teams like region X. Maybe those teams are better focused, better coached, or have more depth. Or maybe their opponents are better than their NPI.

Your comment about the lack of non-conference out-of-region games is appropriate, but the tight conference standings, year after year, is also valid.

The SCIAC teams can get good opponents from the east coast to boost their NPI. There is no way around that. The coach that can for 7-3 or 8-6 against out-or-region teams (.600 or so), is a fact-of-life and D3. McMurry picked up a good weekend in series in Shreveport this year with games against Huntingdon, LaGrange and Rhodes. The NWC doesn't seem to have the same opportunities. Tney will go down the coast for games against the SCIAC.

[Bmo]

I guess the question is, does it matter that CalLu, Pomona, Redlands, some NWC team(s), and maybe McMurry could win a series against 50%(+) of the current at-large selections (but probably won't be in the tournament), or are we good with the status quo?  The previous system, flawed as it was, did have the human element to course correct.  Right now, we are trending towards two fly-ins(from out of region) into the two west regionals.