BB: Top Teams in West Region

[Ralph Turner]

When the dust settles and we see whether and how far down the bubble that McMurry was, then I will review the season and wonder if any of these single outcomes would have changed things.

02/22 a 15-10 loss vs UDallas
03/09 a 6-5 loss to Trinity who scores 4 in the bottom of the 9th
03/16 a 7-4 loss to Southwestern, giving up 3 in the top of the 9th.
03/28 a 20-5 loss to Hendrix. That is just ugly!
05/04 a 11-7 loss to CTX in the elimination game, striking out with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th.

If you sweep the sub .500 teams (UDallas, Southwestern, Hendrix), then there is no doubt.

[DickWhitman]

Crazy extra innings game from LV and CMS yesterday. I haven't looked at all the other conference possibilities yet, but PP sitting at 40 can't feel good right now unless they win the elimination game against CMS. It's crazy to think the SCIAC could only end up with 2 teams in the NCAA.

[DickWhitman]

I guess the question is, does it matter that CalLu, Pomona, Redlands, some NWC team(s), and maybe McMurry could win a series against 50%(+) of the current at-large selections (but probably won't be in the tournament), or are we good with the status quo?  The previous system, flawed as it was, did have the human element to course correct.  Right now, we are trending towards two fly-ins(from out of region) into the two west regionals.

That's a great question. The problem with humans making the selections is someone can always feel there was bias in the decisions. The problem with a formula is there will always be teams that figure out how to work the system and get in over teams that are clearly better. I'm sure CLU, Redlands, McMurry, and possibly PP would rather have their fates in the hands of a selection committee this year.

[Ron Boerger]

It's also much harder for teams in the west to put together a schedule that works well with NPI because there simply aren't the choices available without spending a fortune on travel.  If you're back east there can be dozens of schools (or more) within a few hours drive.  If you're in region 10 the only such schools might be your conference opponents.

[Bmo]

It is funny that the NCAA will spend more money to fly teams to the West regionals when better teams within 500 miles are sitting home.

[DickWhitman]

Are we going to get an NPI/bid breakdown update today? I need a rooting guide today while I watch the SCIAC! The SCIAC scores today should be comical.

[Bmo]

The best solution I can come up with would be to add an in-region kicker into the NPI equation.  This would incentivize teams to schedule in-region while not punishing teams who can't schedule out of region.  Maybe  1.1 on in-region wins and losses. Any other ideas?   

[Ralph Turner]

My quick-and-dirty guess at the NPI shuffle. Rank is the NPI rank.

Rank School   Bid C #  NPI score  05/10 opponent

40)  P-Pitzer Bid #21 56.896  Hosts CMS (Rank #20 Bid #8) in elimination game. (La Verne Rank #8 awaits the winner.) McMurry and Redlands root for CMS.
41)  ETBU     Pool A
42)  Rhodes   Bid #22  56.873 In the finals and will meet winner of Centre (Rank #17 vs Millsaps Rank #24, Bid #8) McMurry and Redlands want Rhodes to lose 2. (but McMurry had win over Rhodes???)
43) Keystone  Bid #23  56.898 Playing PSU-Harrisburg (in UEC winner's round 2 games. Finals tomorrow. McMurry and Redlands root from Keystone to be eliminated.

______________________________

44) Coe "Bid #24" 56.845 Plays Nebraska Wesleyan (Rank #151) in elimination game. winner player Buena Vista Rank #22. McMurry and Redlands root for Neb Wes
45) McMurry "bid #25" 56.836
46) Redlands "bid #26" 56.679
47) Wittenberg "bid #27" 56.609; lost 2 games yesterday

[Ralph Turner]

The best solution I can come up with would be to add an in-region kicker into the NPI equation.  This would incentivize teams to schedule in-region while not punishing teams who can't schedule out of region.  Maybe  1.1 on in-region wins and losses. Any other ideas? 

I think that we get hurt. It is easier to schedule into your system for that advantage, and other geographic regions of the country have it.. My best schedule is to play 3-5 games against a known "top 15" school, e.g., Cortland, UWW, Johns Hopkins, Denison. Just go over the last 5 seasons of Top 25 and find the teams. Then schedule in-region games against teams likely to finish above .500 for the rest of the non-conference schedule. Props to McMurry's Coach Lee. He did that in Shreveport on Feb 7,8,9 against Huntingdon, Rhodes and LaGrange. (La Grange was down this year.)

The SCIAC is a power conference. East Coast teams come there on Spring break for games that help their own NPI. The SCIAC will get 3 and maybe 4 bids. Other power conferences are the NJAC and WIAC. Year in and year out, they have been good forever. Former Coach Lee Driggers told me that 25 years ago when I started following D3 baseball.

[Ralph Turner]

WARNING: Bubble buster!

Denison (NCAC) plays Wooster #82 and must win 2 games to win the tourney.

Might a loss to Wooster knock Denison out of hosting a super-Regional down the line.

[DickWhitman]

WARNING: Bubble buster!

Denison (NCAC) plays Wooster #82 and must win 2 games to win the tourney.

Might a loss to Wooster knock Denison out of hosting a super-Regional down the line.

Maybe make that a qualifier down the road to host a super. Although I guess you run into trouble if not enough super hosts advance

[Bmo]

Fly-in crisis averted as Pomona rallies back from a 5 run deficit to get into the championship round.  Pretty ugly game with 12 HBP, one ugly one that ended the day for the CMS catcher.  That should be enough to book their place in the regional and avoid having 2 top 25 human poll teams miss the playoffs.

[DickWhitman]

I don't see them putting 3 SCIAC teams together. I personally hope they are all split up, but that might be wishing too much

[Bmo]

They will probably hit the easy button and just swap Pomona and Concordia.

Man, these SCIAC pitchers aren't afraid to pitch inside.

[DickWhitman]

Certain teams crowd the plate a little more than others and some believe possibly even leaning into pitches when they can