Quote from: Kuiper on Yesterday at 02:03:15 AMRowan, of course, has plenty of players from New Jersey.  In fact, they have so many New Jersey players that I'm sure the preseason ice-breaker is asking each player "What exit?" 

Indeed it seems there are ongoing playful turf battles between north and south Jersey.  And leave it to Kuiper to pick up on a critical point of the Rowan program and the rest of NJAC in my view.  If there is a talent focus within the Garden State the victor might enjoy the NJAC crown. But based simply on numbers expanding the scope from one state to 50 should yield better results on the national stage.  Could be a separate topic I suppose.

Quote from: Kuiper on Yesterday at 02:03:15 AMThey do have one player from Holly Springs, North Carolina.  That kind of surprised me.  Maybe he got off at the wrong exit?

Actually his preferred exit number is 408 on NC I40 East heading to Surf City, NC for surfing and fishing.  When he made his decision to head north we had "the talk."  With one parent from PA and the other from MD and both grads of Lehigh U., we needed to explain New Jersey to him.  Don't get me wrong, I love visiting New Jersey.  It is just...different.

And in a stroke of luck he will be a 3 hour drive away in Lynchburg, VA this weekend heading into a holiday week.  No matter the results this weekend I will be a winner as I am heading there Saturday for the games and bringing him home early for the holiday.

Quote from: Kuiper on Yesterday at 02:03:15 AM3.  Emory has the better defensive stats over the season, but Rowan is coming into this game on a heater defensively

Emory has only allowed 13 goals (0.68/game) all season, compared with 25 (1.04/game) for Rowan.  In part, that's because Emory has only allowed teams 6.5 shots per game, compared to 10.4 for Rowan.  The corner kick differential is even more stark.  Emory has only conceded 36 corners all season, compared with 110 for Rowan.

On the other hand, Rowan is on a five game shutout streak, not allowing a goal in the three games in the NJAC tournament and the two games in the NCAA tournament.  Four 1-0 wins in a row and a 2-0 defeat of Wesleyan.  Those who watched the latter game and saw some of the earlier games witnessed how dramatic their change has been.  They've always passed the ball well and had nice technique, but they've been fighting tooth and nail down the stretch, winning the 50/50 balls, deflecting chances, and basically out-hustling their opponents.

The turning point for Rowan seemed to be after its 4-3 loss at Camden leaving them 1-2 in the NJAC. In a starting rotation otherwise largely unchanged the GK was changed after that game.  Since that game the Profs were undefeated including the conference tournament and last weekend.  In those 12 games they have conceded only 6 goals and 7 clean sheets.

Quote from: Kuiper on Yesterday at 02:03:15 AM4.  The health of Evan Schlotterbeck may be the key for Rowan

Schlotterbeck was an All Region and All Conference center back for Muhlenberg before coming to Rowan as a grad student after missing his sophomore year with an injury.  He has played more minutes than any other player on the Rowan roster in 2025, but went out in the last three minutes against Wesleyan with some kind of a knock.  That was only the fourth time all season that he didn't play a full 90 and the other three were during Rowan blowout games.  Rowan's ability to hold off Emory's high-powered attack may hinge on Schlotterbeck being available and at full strength.

Agreed.

Quote from: Kuiper on November 19, 2025, 01:48:57 AMI would have predicted at least one of the NESCAC teams or Emory would have been in this group, but I guess not.  For what it's worth, Dickinson has them in dark blazers too.

I think Rowan would have worn tank tops and gold chains if the staff let them.

Quote from: Bucket on November 17, 2025, 07:08:53 PM

Quote from: Freddyfud on November 17, 2025, 04:55:53 PMSomething I noticed unsurprisingly is the level of keeper play as a determinant for post season success. Some obvious examples are Silvester and Landa in the battle of Vegas last year. Others are Will Joseph for the Generals and the cinderella run of Washington College with Anthony Pinto 2 years ago to get to the final four.   

I think at this level consistent fundamentals such as positioning and ball distribution are just a given. What seems to set apart the shot stoppers above is the ability to make some saves destined for a goal, and not just PKs.  A challenging save at a critical time can change the momentum and ultimately the outcome of the game.

At Wesleyan yesterday in a game featuring rain, hail and leaves senior GK Travis Holiday for Rowan came up with this:

If that ball goes in Wesleyan is up 1-0 in the 21st minute of the game, and the outcome could have been very different.

Facing the 11th ranked team in scoring offense at 3 goals per game in Emory the Profs may need a few of these saves Saturday.

Nick Phinney was all that and more for Wheaton against Midd. 10 saves, with at least 4-5 of that spectacular variety you describe.

Thanks for the info, tuning in to watch the replay now.

Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on November 17, 2025, 05:47:26 PM

Quote from: Freddyfud on November 17, 2025, 04:55:53 PMSomething I noticed unsurprisingly is the level of keeper play as a determinant for post season success. Some obvious examples are Silvester and Landa in the battle of Vegas last year. Others are Will Joseph for the Generals and the cinderella run of Washington College with Anthony Pinto 2 years ago to get to the final four.   

I think at this level consistent fundamentals such as positioning and ball distribution are just a given. What seems to set apart the shot stoppers above is the ability to make some saves destined for a goal, and not just PKs.  A challenging save at a critical time can change the momentum and ultimately the outcome of the game.

At Wesleyan yesterday in a game featuring rain, hail and leaves senior GK Travis Holiday for Rowan came up with this:

If that ball goes in Wesleyan is up 1-0 in the 21st minute of the game, and the outcome could have been very different.

Facing the 11th ranked team in scoring offense at 3 goals per game in Emory the Profs may need a few of these saves Saturday.

Absolutely agree. Great save by Rowan.

You also can clearly say that Wes could have hung in there for quite awhile, but for the two clear keeper flubs which sunk its chances. One mistake Wes may have been able to overcome, but the second in first min of the 2nd half not so much. Definitely goes both ways.

Son was a keeper through his college years and he was not perfect, but knew that one mistake his team could manage.  2 not so much.

Also, I think the Wes field played a part. The keeper area after three games in wet weather seemed to be compromised (not like back in our days though where it often was a mud pit). Once again the advantage of playing on turf. I am not sure what the cost of turf v. grass. However, if you have grass you really, really have to invest in keeping it up. Otherwise, grass just becomes another factor in game teams have to deal with that they don't have to on turf. Only maybe a 6-10 places across D3 have grass that is in great shape like W&L, Dickinson, McDaniel and probably a few others. FYI, W&L and Dickinson is only recent as they used to have horrible grass fields.

Bringing lacrosse into the conversation which the grass does not always make a huge difference except around the goal area. High level lacrosse has greatly improved on turf from my days in the 80's. Much more about talent and speed than lucky/unlucky bounces. Most, if not all play on turf, and the games are much better especially around the goal mouth.

I know some will say "both teams had to play on the grass" argument. That is a cop out imo. In many cases on fields not kept up or weather compromised the fields, luck plays a big part. Not so much on turf. I much rather have skill and talent make the difference. In the Wes/Rowan game, I definitely think the keeper area played a big part in the first goal. 2nd not so much.

The weather and field conditions definitely played a part.  I genuinely felt bad for the unlucky Wesleyan keeper.  But my point was that shot so early in the game could have been a turning point for Wesleyan in a game that otherwise was fairly equal.  Will never know of course.

Sorry to rehash but hot off the press today.  DAN HELFRICH NAMED CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER OF U.S. SOCCER

Yes, the NextGen College Soccer Committee member.  Whereas the "pathway to pro" is as clear as a snow filled pitch in Cortland, at least the pathway for US Soccer is becoming crystal clear.

Something I noticed unsurprisingly is the level of keeper play as a determinant for post season success. Some obvious examples are Silvester and Landa in the battle of Vegas last year. Others are Will Joseph for the Generals and the cinderella run of Washington College with Anthony Pinto 2 years ago to get to the final four.   

I think at this level consistent fundamentals such as positioning and ball distribution are just a given. What seems to set apart the shot stoppers above is the ability to make some saves destined for a goal, and not just PKs.  A challenging save at a critical time can change the momentum and ultimately the outcome of the game.

At Wesleyan yesterday in a game featuring rain, hail and leaves senior GK Travis Holiday for Rowan came up with this:


If that ball goes in Wesleyan is up 1-0 in the 21st minute of the game, and the outcome could have been very different.

Facing the 11th ranked team in scoring offense at 3 goals per game in Emory the Profs may need a few of these saves Saturday.

Quote from: Kuiper on November 16, 2025, 08:17:55 PMPREVIEW:  Texas Lutheran @ Trinity at 8 pm Central

Texas Lutheran (#97 NPI) comes in with a record of 13-4-3 after winning its first ever NCAA tournament game 3-2 over Whitman in a game where it jumped out to a 3-0 lead with a high press and an attacking mindset that I haven't seen from TLU much before.  Unfortunately, it lost that edge late in the game, allowing Whitman to comeback and score two goals late before TLU was able to close out the game.

Trinity (#12 NPI) comes in with a record of 16-1-1 after beating Hardin-Simmons 5-0 in the first round of the NCAA tournament.  Trinity was held in check by Hardin-Simmons early in the game before scoring two goals late in the first half.  That took the wind out of H-S' sails and Trinity scored three more in the second half to complete the route.

TLU and Trinity are just about 35 miles from each other and they have played each other often, especially when they were both members of the SCAC.  Trinity has a record of 37-7-1 against TLU and has won 4 of the last 5, 8 of the last 10, and 17 of the last 20 games between the two teams.  All of those three Trinity losses to TLU have come when Trinity was the away team.  This year, Trinity and TLU played in Seguin @ TLU and Trinity won 1-0 on an 87th minute goal by Zachary Anderson after Trinity outshot TLU 15-2 and TLU didn't register a single shot on goal.

That's been the typical pattern for TLU.  It has played a low block and it tries to frustrate Trinity and spring the counter.  Doesn't score often but doesn't concede often either.  We'll see if TLU's tactical shift against Whitman, a team that plays a somewhat similar possession style as Trinity, will be used against Trinity.  I'm not sure if Texas Lutheran's players will have the energy for that two days in a row, but TLU did a pretty good job of rotating its midfielders and forwards last night, so it's possible. If so, though, they'll have to maintain it for 90 against a Trinity team that has more weapons than Whitman and more speed and physicality than Whitman brought to the game.  Trinity also should be well-rested for this game after the beating of Hardin-Simmons.  No Trinity player went more than 73 minutes and it played 13 players at least 17 minutes each off the bench.

I hope it is as entertaining as the Trinity TLU game I saw last year.  In any event I will enjoy watching Knudsen.

Quote from: Kuiper on November 16, 2025, 03:02:22 PM

Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on November 16, 2025, 02:52:01 PMRowan v. Wesleyan

Best announcer ever, truly. Despite the autumn sniffles. Minimalist with tone going up only during goals.

As to Rowans goals, Wes keeper having hardest day ever. Really tough. First was a head ball back to him where he just fumbled it in front of goal. Goal area looked a bit wet a little muddy. Second, the ball skidded out of hands.

Question, NCAAs,biggest platform, yeah windy, but does Wes own a leaf blower??? I think that definitely affected play.

Strong performance by Rowan

Strongest of the season by far and what a time to do it.  A lot of determination and great defending in the second half to hold the lead. Something that has haunted Rowan the past 2 years to be honest.  Schlotterbeck had a game and hope he is OK after leaving on a hard tackle.

Fair play to Wesleyan on a good game and an exceptional season.  The weather obviously affected the game, but both teams left it on the leaf covered field.

Do any prognosticators have ideas about sectional hosts next weekend? Wondering if Rowan might head south so maybe I can watch in person.  Looking at you Hampden Sydney...Or maybe we find out tonight?

First time watching Wesleyan today.  What an impressive back 3 and double pivot. If this group continues this form it will likely be a long bus ride home for the Profs tomorrow.

Quote from: Kuiper on November 14, 2025, 01:35:58 PM

Quote from: Freddyfud on November 14, 2025, 01:29:02 PMSomething tells me this is the first of many lower NPI victories.

There are always upsets, but the one thing the NPI ignores entirely that the selection committee approach used to take into account was how a team was playing coming into the tournament.  That wouldn't have changed Hobart's standing, but Messiah's early results were a drag on their ranking in the way that didn't reflect their later performances.

Yea I wanted to say many more upsets but paused to think about how an upset should be defined given the Committee's selections.  So landed on NPI? I dunno...

Something tells me this is the first of many lower NPI victories.

Quote from: Bucket on November 13, 2025, 11:47:51 AMI was told there would be no math.

Isn't math part of a strong NESCAC liberal arts degree?

Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 11:24:03 AM

Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 10:46:33 AM

Quote from: Freddyfud on November 13, 2025, 09:48:33 AMHere is a the calc for Brandeis  Left side is the current download from NCAA.com.  Right side (columns L - N) is the recalc including formulas so you can see how the 85/15, QWB and other factors are applied.

Thanks!!!

So how does SOS work? Is it 15 for every team or is there a secondary set of calculations that assigns a specific value for each team?

In your XLS file, why does the Regis win only count as 1/2? And why wouldn't the Anna Maria win contribute to Brandeis's final tally?

Does final NPI calculation include all ties and losses? But only some of the wins?

Attempting to answer my own questions:

Brandeis 9-3-5 overall. "Adjustments" divide the ties by 2 and adds that amount to both the Win column AND the loss column? Resulting in (9+2.5) - (3+2.5) = 11.5 - 5.5.

Then since the "minimum wins" is set at 10, Brandeis gets to remove their lowest 1.5 wins (unless those scores would help their overall NPI). So Anna Maria is tossed as the "worst" win and half of the Regis win is tossed as the "2nd worst win" but it's only half tossed because they need to stay at 10.0 adjusted wins.

Similarly, Amherst was 8-5-3 on the season which gets adjusted to 9.5 - 6.5. Since Amherst doesn't hit the 10.0 threshold for wins, they do not get to remove any scores from their computation?

Yes

Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 10:46:33 AMI still don't know how SOS is calculated but I think I understand everything else.

SOS is basically multiply either the win or loss value by 85% (or half of each for a tie.)  The extra 15 in the formula is credit for a win (the other 15%.)  You can see this in the difference between the formulas in column L vs column M. The other difference in the formulas is to add the QWB in column G for the wins.

Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 10:46:33 AMBy my calculations (assuming SOS = 15), Williams would not have made the tournament had they lost to Tufts early in the season. Williams would've dropped to NPI #33 56.548 and therefore would've been the highest rated team to miss the cut.

I get the same so yes.

Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 10:46:33 AMSo a loss against the #1 team (Loss Val = 53.267) is equivalent to a win against #352 Linfield (Win Val = 53.3).

Interesting way to look at it but yes.

Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 10:46:33 AMOr, defeating teams with Win Values = 57.0 all season long is enough to get into the NCAA tournament as an at-large bid. Win value of 57.0 is equivalent to playing #233 Millikin with an overall record of 6-9-1. So you can basically play an entire season against teams that are around .500 and still be highly rated.

Another interesting perspective and yes as long as you win every game.  Lake Forest is probably as close to this scenario as you can get this year.

If you are going down a path that teams should schedule cupcakes...

Millikin's win value is 57.0 on an NPI of 49.41 (85% of 49.41 + 15.)  Millikin generally lost games vs higher NPI teams (and won vs lower NPI ones.) Their NPI is impacted by SOS even for the losses to teams such as Wis Whitewater (27) and Wheaton Ill (51).  (Interestingly they exclude a loss to Wash U (10) because the loss value here is greater than their own NPI.)

It would be difficult to reach the current at large cut off of 56.60 by playing teams with .500 records that only play other teams with .500 records. 

Edit: Kuiper beat me to it

Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 08:52:19 AMDoes anyone have the exact formula used for Men's D3 Soccer NPI calculations? I've done some googling and found high-level overview but I can't find the details.

I've read 15% is SOS and 85% is wining percentage, then there's a QWB multiplier if you defeat teams inside the top ~80 NIP (>= 54.0 NPI for 2025, right?). Then there's ability to drop certain games or not count them at all? Do you drop "bad wins" only, or do you also drop any "bad losses" or ties?

Then how is SOS calculated? Seems like SOS depends on opponents' NPI, but NPI depends on SOS and it becomes a circular calculation?

IDK if anyone has already created an XLS that helps model this out but what I was hoping to do is get to a point where I could change the outcomes of a few key games to see how a team's NPI would be affected. For example (I mostly follow NESCAC) if Williams had tied (or lost) to Tufts early this season, how much would their NPI have suffered?

Or if Brandeis hadn't played so many really tough opponents (4 games vs Top-13 NPI and 5 vs Top-21 NPI) - looks like they could've been ranked much higher if they had defeated NPI teams in the 50-100 range rather than playing games vs Top-10 teams (for example compare #26 Brandeis to #4 Lynchburg or #5 Emory).

vs Top-30 opponents:
#26 Brandeis 1-2-2 (4 games vs Top 13 and the 5th was #21 Wheaton. Won over #13 Wesleyan and tied #5 Emory and Wheaton)
#4 Lynch 2-1-0 (2 wins both against #29 WashLee; 1 loss against #23 Hamp-Syd. No games against Top 20 teams)
#5 Emory 1-1-2  (1 win vs #29 WashLee in August; ties #26 Brandeis and #8 Chicago; loss to #10 WashU

Any info appreciated.

Here is a the calc for Brandeis  Left side is the current download from NCAA.com.  Right side (columns L - N) is the recalc including formulas so you can see how the 85/15, QWB and other factors are applied.

Quote from: camosfan on November 11, 2025, 12:33:32 PMhe may get recruited by a D1 team, isn't that where the USMNT striker played before he went to D1 , think they were undefeated and did not get a bid that year?

He went to Eastern Connecticut State