Quote from: Ejay on Yesterday at 03:37:10 PM

Quote from: B Teamer on Yesterday at 12:19:41 PMSounds like RC 6-3-2 (3-0) vs Stockton 7-2-3 (2-0-1) this coming Saturday is now the NJAC game of the week!

Might I suggest you join our Weekly Pool :-)

Totally scripted 

Quote from: kansas hokie on Yesterday at 11:24:53 AM10-5 NPI is out - https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/45910

Last four at-large in: Ithaca, SUNY Oneonta, Catholic, Conn College
First four at-large out: Skidmore, Bridgewater, Colby, Washington & Lee

multi-bid conferences:
NESCAC - 8
UAA - 4
ODAC - 3
Liberty League - 3
MIAC - 3
SAA - 3
SUNYAC - 2
Landmark - 2

A nit but the NJAC would also have 2. And I checked online for the list of this year's conference AQ's.  I could only find last year's list...

Back home after a weekend in South Jersey where the weather was phenomenal.  Made the away trip to Camden where the host Scarlet Raptors beat the Profs 4-3 in a buzzing and active stadium during homecoming.

A DJ spinning tracks non stop during the game was a bit much for this over the hill fan.  But at least on the pitch the action and goals were plenty. 

Rutgers Camden scored twice in the first 20 minutes and was fired up.  The Profs woke up and scored with about 5 minutes left in the half.  But after a long delay the referee disallowed the goal for what I assumed was an offside interference.  (After the game I learned from my son the ball actually was ruled over the end line.  If there was any audio on field it was easily defeated by the mix of dance and other beats from the DJ.). A couple of minutes later the Profs scored to enter halftime down 2-1.  Good time for me to check out the free homecoming concessions, thank you RC alumni!

In the second half the teams traded goals but each time with the Scarlet Raptors ahead.  The Profs hit the wood work twice late in the game but could not find a tying goal.

The win means Rutgers Camden at 3-0 in conference are alone at the top of the NJAC.  The Profs drop to 1-2 and tied with 3 others in the conference.

Despite the result had a fantastic weekend with the son who seemed happy with the quantity of food we provided him.  If there could ever be such a thing...

NJAC POTW

Quote from: ziggy on September 30, 2025, 01:15:03 PM

Quote from: Freddyfud on September 29, 2025, 01:38:18 PM

Quote from: deiscanton on September 29, 2025, 12:44:50 PMFreddyfud and others--

The NCAA DIII Men's Soccer Committee released their first NCAA DIII NPI Summary Report of the season this morning.

It is through games of Sunday, September 28, 2025

The report is available at:  http://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/45791

Interesting and thanks for the heads up!  Will investigate the differences now for education purposes.   

Just seeing this but interested to see how close a proxy approach comes to actual NPI. Cool to see people out there trying interesting things!

One thing we have definitely noticed on the basketball side is that a good/bad SOS in the old system doesn't automatically look like an equally good/bad SOS in NPI. That would be my worry using OWP in the proxy since the old SOS was based on OWP and OOWP and SOS in NPI is average opponent NPI.

Yes I see this and not to mention QWB, Minimum Wins and other dark arts.  Trying a different path for now by feeding last year's final NPI calc into AI to reverse engineer it which resulted in a linear regression     And this makes it seem so simple.

If any of these athletes are pursuing a degree in data science they are sure to find a job at the NCAA. 

Quote from: deiscanton on September 29, 2025, 12:44:50 PMFreddyfud and others--

The NCAA DIII Men's Soccer Committee released their first NCAA DIII NPI Summary Report of the season this morning.

It is through games of Sunday, September 28, 2025

The report is available at:  http://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/45791

Interesting and thanks for the heads up!  Will investigate the differences now for education purposes.   

Updated as follows:

• Added NPI and Future NPI through games as of yesterday 9/28
• Added ranks for NPI and Future NPI
• Added a Summary Top 64 tab to list the teams ranked 1-64 as of yesterday.

Edit:  see post below with link to the actual NPI...

Quote from: paclassic89 on September 27, 2025, 07:43:08 PMHe's still playing?! 

Playing is an understatement based on his first half performance.  And it is difficult to pick which of the 3 goals was the best.  All were impressive.

Edit: and he just scored a fourth.

Good candidate for runaway team this year?  Emory.  Lights out vs. Sewanee in the first half so far with a Cubeddu hatty.

Quote from: Kuiper on September 26, 2025, 11:55:36 AMFreddyfud - In updating your NPI Proxy, you now misidentify the conferences of the teams.  Perhaps the conference column isn't linked to the teams and therefore didn't adjust when you revised for the error.

Ewww, you're right thanks!  Fixed.

Quote from: kansas hokie on September 25, 2025, 10:55:47 PMthank you for your work on this. It shows why NCAA doesn't release it early. If bids went by this version, Williams, Tufts, Conn College, and Wash U are all out of the tourney. Bates, Ramapo, and Haverford get at-large bids though.

Still fun to look at and hope you keep it up. thanks again!

Yes agreed it shows the influence of the 75% WP factor this early in the season so not a reasonable prediction.  This was partly a confirmation of available data. If history repeats the NCAA will release its first version in a couple of weeks. 

Anyhow I noticed an error and fixed it and also added a view based on the Future Combined OWP at the far right for reference.  I also see on NCAA.com the Toughest Schedule is now updated for games through 9/25.  I'll think about a possible easy way to update this.

Out of curiosity I was able to produce an NPI view before the official ones start.  It's based on data from NCAA.com, but the catch is timing.  The OWP is based on games through 9/21, and the WP is based on games through 9/24.  (I could not find aligned dates on NCAA.com)  Due to the different dates it would not agree to NPI published by NCAA.com, but I suspect it would be close.

The challenging part of OWP is removing the games played for the selected team.  (Even Ms. Chat GPT agreed.)  But on NCAA.com there is a report called Toughest Schedule (Other Stats < Misc Reports.)  I tested a few the past opponent results and the report does exclude games played against the selected team.  (Sorry Ms. Chat GPT.)  If I had to guess this is the basis for the OWP in NPI used by the NCAA, and it is the basis for OWP in the Google Sheet below.

Note the Toughest Schedule also includes both a forward view and combined view of OWP which is interesting.  (I did not test these.)

It won't be long before we can say good night to USC and Massey.

D3 NPI Proxy 9_25

And the tiger in the cage is now poked.

Congrats to the UAA.

Interesting box score in South Jersey tonight as Stockton tops WC  2-1.  Interesting not for the result but for the Shorepeople starting lineup which apparently did not include its regular starters.  Oh to be a fly on the wall in Coach Dunshee's office.

In other news the D3 board jinx is seemingly on.  Muhlenberg earns a PK to tie FDU Florham 1-1 at home in Allentown.

Quote from: Mr_November on September 23, 2025, 10:55:16 AM

Quote from: Kuiper on September 22, 2025, 11:10:38 PMFor what it's worth, Messiah beat Lancaster Bible 5-0 tonight and is undefeated in its last three games.  Weaker competition than the beginning of the season, but signs of life.

On another note, Augsburg moves to 10-0 on the year after beating Wisconsin River Falls tonight 3-0.  Carver Tierney scored his 10th goal of the year.  Augsburg has scored 31 goals and given up 2 this season.

Going to be a fascinating matchup on Saturday between Messiah and Mary Wash.

Messiah are 2-5-1 whilst Mary Wash are 3-5. Both teams have had very stiff competition in their non-conference matches thus far. I won't be surprised if this game is a high-scoring, wildcard game.

I haven't actually seen any UMW games this season...are they still running a 3-5-2? Messiah seem to have changed to a 4-4-2 diamond, last I saw (someone correct me if I'm wrong)...

Not sure about the overall matchup but there will at least be two exciting players to watch.  For me the senior MWU midfielder is one of the best attacking threats in the country.  On the other side is an engine at holding mid.  The sophomore has played all but 45 minutes in 8 matches and just won't lose the ball.