NCAA Tournament 2025

[Kuiper]

In another preview as we await the weekend, here are a few facts about Dickinson and Lynchburg (which play each other on 11/22 at 1 pm EST) that may only be of interest to me:

1.  It's well known that both teams have elite offenses, but Lynchburg is a little more prolific than Dickinson

Dickinson scored 52 goals (2.36/game) and Lynchburg scored 66 goals (3/game)

Dickinson took 335 shots (15/2/game), but Lynchburg took an astounding 401 shots (18.2/game)

Part of the difference for Lynchburg were some outlier games, including 9-0 victories over Regent (a provisional DIII member) and Averett and a 6-0 win over Eastern Mennonite and 5-1 victory over Messiah(!).  Even so, Lynchburg was held to fewer than two goals only 6 times all season.

Dickinson had only a couple of outlier games (a 5-1 win over Alvernia and a 6-1 win over Lebanon Valley) and it was held to fewer than two goals 9 times this season.  The 7 ties suggest that teams have found a way to slow Dickinson down, although that hasn't happened in the conference or NCAA tournament.

2.  It's less well known that both teams have elite defenses, but Dickinson is a bit stingier than Lynchburg

Dickinson has only conceded 8 goals all season and has the 2nd best Team Goals Against Average in the country this year at .364, while Lynchburg has only conceded 11 goals all season and has the 7th best Team Goals Against Average in the country this year at .500. Dickinson has had 14 shutouts in the regular and postseason, while Lynchburg has had 13 shutouts.

An interesting defensive stat is that Dickinson's opponents have only had 4 assists all season, while Lynchburg's have only had 5 assists.  I'm not exactly sure how to interpret this, but I tend to think it suggests something positive about their defensive effort (although it could be stingy official scorers or interceptions from poor plays out of the back).  It may be that they are active enough in pressing that they simply don't give up a lot of easy combination plays that end up with a pass to a man in front of goal for a tap-in.  By comparison with a couple of other Sweet 16 teams, St. Olaf has conceded 20 goals and 20 assists and Augsburg has conceded 15 goals and 17 assists. Other strong defensive teams like SUNY Cortland and Tufts, which each have only conceded 9 goals all season, have conceded 8 assists apiece. 

Another interesting defensive note is that while Dickinson has committed 3 fouls in the box that resulted in penalty kicks, their GK has only allowed one of those to score.

3.  For two teams that are over 4 hours apart and in different conferences and different regions, they had quite a few common opponents this season:

Virginia Wesleyan: Lynchburg won 1-0; Dickinson tied 1-1
Christopher Newport: Lynchburg won 2-1; Dickinson tied 0-0
Messiah:  Lynchburg won 5-1; Dickinson won 3-0
Shenandoah:  Lynchburg won 2-0; Dickinson won 1-0
Franklin & Marshall:  Lynchburg won 4-1; Dickinson won 4-0

Although they played them at very different points in the season and under different circumstances (pre-season v. post-season, home v. away, conference v. non-conference), there are enough results to allow you to cut through the underbrush of different schedules and outlier opponents and see two teams that are pretty evenly matched.  Even the scores of all games are similar.  And the only two games where the results were different were the Va. Wesleyan and CNU games, which Dickinson played on the road on opening weekend, while Lynchburg played at home at the end of the season in the last conference game and in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

4.  Dickinson and Lynchburg are the only two teams in the entire Sweet 16 that have the players wearing button down shirts and ties in their roster photos

I would have predicted at least one of the NESCAC teams or Emory would have been in this group, but I guess not.  For what it's worth, Dickinson has them in dark blazers too.

Have to say, however, the tie thing was not a very good look. I don't think I've ever seen so many loose or askew knots and barely a dimple among them.  It's even worse when the coaches are wearing t-shirts and the players are dressed to go to formal.  Now if they showed up to the game and played that way, that would be must-see TV!

[WUPHF]

Wash U. statesthat it has an 0-3 all-time record against Trinity, losing twice in San Antonio and once at home, scoring 1 goal in the three games and conceding 4

Trinity, on the other hand, states it it has a 7-1-1 all-time record against Wash U., and is on a 6 game winning streak against the Bears.

Unfortunately, the Washington University athletics website lost a lot of history when they transitioned to Sidearm 3-5 years ago, but they have a record book that does profile every season and series record.

The two teams have met twice in the NCAA tournament.  Bears won the 1997 match 4-3 in overtime while Trinity won the 2007 quarterfinal match 2-1.  Both games were played at Francis Field.

Washington University has played a somewhat significantly better strength of schedule (Massey No. 40) vs. Trinity (Massey No. 108)

Trinity games against Massey Top 50-60 or so: 2-1 win over Southwestern, 3-1 win over UMHB, 2-1 win over UC-Santa Cruz, 2-3 loss to Christopher Newport.  Wins over Sewanee and Texas Lutheran.

Washington games against Massey Top 50-60 or so: 2-1 win over North Park, 4-2 win over Wheaton, 4-0 win over Brandeis, 2-3 loss against Rochester, 1-0 win over Emory, 1-0 win over Chicago, 0-0 tie against Whitewater, 1-0 win over Chicago. Loss to NYU of course.

[Kuiper]

Wash U. statesthat it has an 0-3 all-time record against Trinity, losing twice in San Antonio and once at home, scoring 1 goal in the three games and conceding 4

Trinity, on the other hand, states it it has a 7-1-1 all-time record against Wash U., and is on a 6 game winning streak against the Bears.

Unfortunately, the Washington University athletics website lost a lot of history when they transitioned to Sidearm 3-5 years ago, but they have a record book that does profile every season and series record.

The two teams have met twice in the NCAA tournament.  Bears won the 1997 match 4-3 in overtime while Trinity won the 2007 quarterfinal match 2-1.  Both games were played at Francis Field.

Washington University has played a somewhat significantly better strength of schedule (Massey No. 40) vs. Trinity (Massey No. 108)

Trinity games against Massey Top 50-60 or so: 2-1 win over Southwestern, 3-1 win over UMHB, 2-1 win over UC-Santa Cruz, 2-3 loss to Christopher Newport.  Wins over Sewanee and Texas Lutheran.

Washington games against Massey Top 50-60 or so: 2-1 win over North Park, 4-2 win over Wheaton, 4-0 win over Brandeis, 2-3 loss against Rochester, 1-0 win over Emory, 1-0 win over Chicago, 0-0 tie against Whitewater, 1-0 win over Chicago. Loss to NYU of course.

Thanks for the background on the Wash U records.  I figured that Trinity must have manually entered the pre-2007 records.

As for the strength-of-schedule, I thought about trying to dig into that, but I decided that since the NPI rankings already reflect that and the teams are pretty close, I wouldn't try to reinvent the wheel.  Massey's SoS is different enough from NPI's (which is based on the NPI ranking of your opponents), that it's another exercise entirely to discuss which is more "accurate."  When I did the Dickinson-Lynchburg preview posted last night, I mentioned some outliers to put the goals scored in context, but didn't try to do anything more than that.  I tend to think when you played teams is also pretty important in considering the difficulty of your opponents (and your own quality), and it's also harder to play teams twice with a conference tournament, rather than only once in conferences without tournaments, but it's hard to quantify all of that other than noting it.

Suffice to say that Wash U and Trinity are both really strong teams with different styles of play and somewhat different strengths.  One thing I thought about mentioning afterward is that Wash U's GK, Cal L'Hommedieu, has played all of its games this year and looks really solid.  By contrast, Trinity has spent the year trying to identify its starting keeper and I think Jayden Schell, who appears to have won that contest, is still not quite as strong as L'Hommedieu.  If it comes down to the GKs, that's an area where Wash U may have the edge. 

[WUPHF]

As for the strength-of-schedule, I thought about trying to dig into that, but I decided that since the NPI rankings already reflect that and the teams are pretty close, I wouldn't try to reinvent the wheel.  Massey's SoS is different enough from NPI's (which is based on the NPI ranking of your opponents), that it's another exercise entirely to discuss which is more "accurate." 

Agreed, yeah, lot's of ways to think about the match-up and to imagine who is favored, I was just adding one more to the mix.

[Kuiper]

In another preview as we await the weekend, here are a few facts about Dickinson and Lynchburg (which play each other on 11/22 at 1 pm EST) that may only be of interest to me:

1.  It's well known that both teams have elite offenses, but Lynchburg is a little more prolific than Dickinson

Dickinson scored 52 goals (2.36/game) and Lynchburg scored 66 goals (3/game)

Dickinson took 335 shots (15/2/game), but Lynchburg took an astounding 401 shots (18.2/game)

Part of the difference for Lynchburg were some outlier games, including 9-0 victories over Regent (a provisional DIII member) and Averett and a 6-0 win over Eastern Mennonite and 5-1 victory over Messiah(!).  Even so, Lynchburg was held to fewer than two goals only 6 times all season.

Dickinson had only a couple of outlier games (a 5-1 win over Alvernia and a 6-1 win over Lebanon Valley) and it was held to fewer than two goals 9 times this season.  The 7 ties suggest that teams have found a way to slow Dickinson down, although that hasn't happened in the conference or NCAA tournament.

2.  It's less well known that both teams have elite defenses, but Dickinson is a bit stingier than Lynchburg

Dickinson has only conceded 8 goals all season and has the 2nd best Team Goals Against Average in the country this year at .364, while Lynchburg has only conceded 11 goals all season and has the 7th best Team Goals Against Average in the country this year at .500. Dickinson has had 14 shutouts in the regular and postseason, while Lynchburg has had 13 shutouts.

An interesting defensive stat is that Dickinson's opponents have only had 4 assists all season, while Lynchburg's have only had 5 assists.  I'm not exactly sure how to interpret this, but I tend to think it suggests something positive about their defensive effort (although it could be stingy official scorers or interceptions from poor plays out of the back).  It may be that they are active enough in pressing that they simply don't give up a lot of easy combination plays that end up with a pass to a man in front of goal for a tap-in.  By comparison with a couple of other Sweet 16 teams, St. Olaf has conceded 20 goals and 20 assists and Augsburg has conceded 15 goals and 17 assists. Other strong defensive teams like SUNY Cortland and Tufts, which each have only conceded 9 goals all season, have conceded 8 assists apiece. 

Another interesting defensive note is that while Dickinson has committed 3 fouls in the box that resulted in penalty kicks, their GK has only allowed one of those to score.

3.  For two teams that are over 4 hours apart and in different conferences and different regions, they had quite a few common opponents this season:

Virginia Wesleyan: Lynchburg won 1-0; Dickinson tied 1-1
Christopher Newport: Lynchburg won 2-1; Dickinson tied 0-0
Messiah:  Lynchburg won 5-1; Dickinson won 3-0
Shenandoah:  Lynchburg won 2-0; Dickinson won 1-0
Franklin & Marshall:  Lynchburg won 4-1; Dickinson won 4-0

Although they played them at very different points in the season and under different circumstances (pre-season v. post-season, home v. away, conference v. non-conference), there are enough results to allow you to cut through the underbrush of different schedules and outlier opponents and see two teams that are pretty evenly matched.  Even the scores of all games are similar.  And the only two games where the results were different were the Va. Wesleyan and CNU games, which Dickinson played on the road on opening weekend, while Lynchburg played at home at the end of the season in the last conference game and in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

4.  Dickinson and Lynchburg are the only two teams in the entire Sweet 16 that have the players wearing button down shirts and ties in their roster photos

I would have predicted at least one of the NESCAC teams or Emory would have been in this group, but I guess not.  For what it's worth, Dickinson has them in dark blazers too.

Have to say, however, the tie thing was not a very good look. I don't think I've ever seen so many loose or askew knots and barely a dimple among them.  It's even worse when the coaches are wearing t-shirts and the players are dressed to go to formal.  Now if they showed up to the game and played that way, that would be must-see TV!

5.? Dickinson is playing at home on grass which is much, much better than previous years. Lynchburg plays on turf at home and I think it only had one game on grass (W&L) which it won 2-0? Dickinson is 11-0-3 at home with a 5 game win streak (4 or more of 2-0 or better and a 4-0 against Hop in CC final). Also did not give up a goal in the last 5 games. Over the season, gave up only 4 goals at home.

Lynchburg has played 10 games away (5-1 away and 2-0-2 neutral). They are 7-1-2 with the lose against Hampden Sydney and ties against Salisbury and Berry. In the non home games they gave up 7 goals of the 11 all season.

Will this be a big difference? Probably not. However, I would not want to give up a goal first to Dickinson especially in the first half. Dickinson has been able to score many team goals and ones with really, really good individual play.

Just to clarify, the game is at Lynchburg, not Dickinson (unless something has changed).

[SierraFD3soccer]

As to neckties and coaches not so much. I like the ties if tied correctly especially for future employment. Shows professionalism. Coaches seem to recycle pictures especially if it was during a thin period and many may not own ties, hahahaha.

[SierraFD3soccer]

My bad, still stuck in 2024, hah!

Just to clarify, the game is at Lynchburg, not Dickinson (unless something has changed).

[flyingdutchman]

Which quadrant is the group of death?

[rdanie03]

Which quadrant is the group of death?

Top Left. You have the three best NESCAC teams and the 11-time national champ Messiah

[WUPHF]

Which quadrant is the group of death?

The Sweet 16 match-ups by NPI rankings

Tufts
1-107
7-9

St. Olaf
3-17
6-21

WashU
2-18
10-12

Lynchburg
4-22
5-32

[MunnyTim]

I would say top left.  I think the 11 time national champs get some bonus points the NPI does not calculate.  Plus, as other posters have indicated, the NPI does not include an recency bias and it is clear that Messiah is playing way above #107.  They outplayed undefeated NPI #16 on their own field and then defeated NPI #37 in round two.

I certainly have a bias, but after watching Messiah against Hobart, they are not playing like an NPI #107 kind of team.

[Freddyfud]

I would have predicted at least one of the NESCAC teams or Emory would have been in this group, but I guess not.  For what it's worth, Dickinson has them in dark blazers too.

I think Rowan would have worn tank tops and gold chains if the staff let them.

[Kuiper]

Another preview to while away the days before Saturday.  In this one, I discuss a few facts about Rowan v. Emory (on Saturday 11/22 at 3:30 pm EST) that may only be of interest to me:

1.  These two schools probably have less geographical recruiting overlap than most other Sweet 16 matchups

Emory has players from all over the country, but it doesn't have a single player on the roster from New Jersey.  That kind of surprised me.  Rowan, of course, has plenty of players from New Jersey.  In fact, they have so many New Jersey players that I'm sure the preseason ice-breaker is asking each player "What exit?"  They do have one player from Holly Springs, North Carolina.  That kind of surprised me.  Maybe he got off at the wrong exit?

2.  Both teams can score goals, but Emory has relied upon some unlikely sources, while Rowan has ridden the same horse the last three years

Emory has scored 56 goals (2.95/game), which is a pretty dramatic increase from last season when the team only scored 27 goals (1.59/game).  You wouldn't have predicted that increase, especially with Princeton grad transfer Ryan Winkler, who led the team with 10 goals last season, departing. No matter. The team brought in grad student Igancio Cubbedu, who leads the team with 12 goals and 6 assists.  What makes this particularly unlikely, aside from the fact that Cubbedu started his career at Amherst in 2019 and missed 2022 and all but 21 minutes in 2024,is that Cubbedu was never known as a scorer for the Mammoths.  Despite winning All Region awards in 2021 and 2023, he only scored 8 goals and had 11 assists in 46 games at Amherst.  At Emory, however, has bettered that total in a mere 18 games.  The whole team has improved in the goal scoring department, with 10 players scoring at least 3 goals, compared with only 3 last season.  Adeyemi Oni, in particular, has seen a dramatic increase in his production, from 0 goals and 0 assists last season to 6 goals and 4 assists in 2025.

Rowan has been pretty prolific itself, scoring 46 goals (1.92/game), which is in the range of the number of goals it scored in 2024 (40), 2023 (48), and 2022 (41).  The common denominator in all four seasons?  Johnny Troiano.  There are a lot of scorers in DIII, but not many have been consistent as he has been despite being the obvious target for defenses in the tough NJAC his whole college career.  He only scored 5 his freshman year (although that was 2nd best on the team), but he scored 15 as a sophomore, 16 as a junior, and 19 this year as a senior.  And he has had at least 4 assists all four years and at least 5 the past three years when he moved into a starting role.

3.  Emory has the better defensive stats over the season, but Rowan is coming into this game on a heater defensively

Emory has only allowed 13 goals (0.68/game) all season, compared with 25 (1.04/game) for Rowan.  In part, that's because Emory has only allowed teams 6.5 shots per game, compared to 10.4 for Rowan.  The corner kick differential is even more stark.  Emory has only conceded 36 corners all season, compared with 110 for Rowan.

On the other hand, Rowan is on a five game shutout streak, not allowing a goal in the three games in the NJAC tournament and the two games in the NCAA tournament.  Four 1-0 wins in a row and a 2-0 defeat of Wesleyan.  Those who watched the latter game and saw some of the earlier games witnessed how dramatic their change has been.  They've always passed the ball well and had nice technique, but they've been fighting tooth and nail down the stretch, winning the 50/50 balls, deflecting chances, and basically out-hustling their opponents. 

4.  The health of Evan Schlotterbeck may be the key for Rowan

Schlotterbeck was an All Region and All Conference center back for Muhlenberg before coming to Rowan as a grad student after missing his sophomore year with an injury.  He has played more minutes than any other player on the Rowan roster in 2025, but went out in the last three minutes against Wesleyan with some kind of a knock.  That was only the fourth time all season that he didn't play a full 90 and the other three were during Rowan blowout games.  Rowan's ability to hold off Emory's high-powered attack may hinge on Schlotterbeck being available and at full strength.

[eaglesoccerdad]

My 2 cents on Lynchburg based on their game vs UMW in September
-seems like the whole team is 5'10" to 6'
-very physical
-dangerous off of set pieces (only goal scored in contest was off a corner)
-defend very well
-midfield players are good a closing down and challenging for every 50/50
-were not very clinical, had many chances being up a man for 55 minutes but could not put quality shots on frame
-noticed that their leading scorer comes off the bench and only plays around 30 minutes per contest. He did not play in the UMW game

[Freddyfud]

Rowan, of course, has plenty of players from New Jersey.  In fact, they have so many New Jersey players that I'm sure the preseason ice-breaker is asking each player "What exit?" 

Indeed it seems there are ongoing playful turf battles between north and south Jersey.  And leave it to Kuiper to pick up on a critical point of the Rowan program and the rest of NJAC in my view.  If there is a talent focus within the Garden State the victor might enjoy the NJAC crown. But based simply on numbers expanding the scope from one state to 50 should yield better results on the national stage.  Could be a separate topic I suppose.

They do have one player from Holly Springs, North Carolina.  That kind of surprised me.  Maybe he got off at the wrong exit?

Actually his preferred exit number is 408 on NC I40 East heading to Surf City, NC for surfing and fishing.  When he made his decision to head north we had "the talk."  With one parent from PA and the other from MD and both grads of Lehigh U., we needed to explain New Jersey to him.  Don't get me wrong, I love visiting New Jersey.  It is just...different.

And in a stroke of luck he will be a 3 hour drive away in Lynchburg, VA this weekend heading into a holiday week.  No matter the results this weekend I will be a winner as I am heading there Saturday for the games and bringing him home early for the holiday.

3.  Emory has the better defensive stats over the season, but Rowan is coming into this game on a heater defensively

Emory has only allowed 13 goals (0.68/game) all season, compared with 25 (1.04/game) for Rowan.  In part, that's because Emory has only allowed teams 6.5 shots per game, compared to 10.4 for Rowan.  The corner kick differential is even more stark.  Emory has only conceded 36 corners all season, compared with 110 for Rowan.

On the other hand, Rowan is on a five game shutout streak, not allowing a goal in the three games in the NJAC tournament and the two games in the NCAA tournament.  Four 1-0 wins in a row and a 2-0 defeat of Wesleyan.  Those who watched the latter game and saw some of the earlier games witnessed how dramatic their change has been.  They've always passed the ball well and had nice technique, but they've been fighting tooth and nail down the stretch, winning the 50/50 balls, deflecting chances, and basically out-hustling their opponents.

The turning point for Rowan seemed to be after its 4-3 loss at Camden leaving them 1-2 in the NJAC. In a starting rotation otherwise largely unchanged the GK was changed after that game.  Since that game the Profs were undefeated including the conference tournament and last weekend.  In those 12 games they have conceded only 6 goals and 7 clean sheets.

4.  The health of Evan Schlotterbeck may be the key for Rowan

Schlotterbeck was an All Region and All Conference center back for Muhlenberg before coming to Rowan as a grad student after missing his sophomore year with an injury.  He has played more minutes than any other player on the Rowan roster in 2025, but went out in the last three minutes against Wesleyan with some kind of a knock.  That was only the fourth time all season that he didn't play a full 90 and the other three were during Rowan blowout games.  Rowan's ability to hold off Emory's high-powered attack may hinge on Schlotterbeck being available and at full strength.

Agreed.