NCAA Tournament 2025

[Kuiper]

Here are the automatic qualifiers (courtesy D3Soccer World on X)

Tufts - NESCAC
Wash U - UAA
Macalester - MIAC
Hobart - Liberty
Lake Forest - MWC
Babson - NEWMAC
Christopher Newport - C2C
Berry - SAA
Oneonta - SUNYAC
Dickinson - Centennial
DePauw - NCAC
MSOE - NACC
WI Eau Claire - WIAC
Catholic - Landmark
Rowan - NJAC
Lynchburg - ODAC
Illinois Wesleyan - CCIW
Hardin-Simmons - ASC
Roger Williams - CNE
Texas Lutheran - SCAC
Calvin - MIAA
Otterbein - OAC
NC Wesleyan - USA South
Luther - ARC
UMass Boston - Little East
Grove City - Presidents
St Joseph's LI - Skyline
Transylvania - HCAC
Bridgewater St - MASCAC
Stevens - MAC Freedom
La Roche - AMCC
Maryville - CC South
WI Superior - UMAC
Geneseo - Empire 8
Saint Joseph CT - GNAC
Neumann - AEC
Penn St. Harrisburg - UEC
Lyon - SLIAC
Occidental - SCIAC
Messiah - MAC Commonwealth
Lehman - CUNYAC
SUNY Delhi - NAC
Whitman - NWC

[Kuiper]

21 At-Large recipients to the DIII Men's Soccer Tournament, which is down to #31 in the Final NPI Rankings:

Augsburg
St Olaf
Emory
Connecticut
Chicago
Bowdoin
Trinity TX
Wesleyan
Middlebury
Cortland
Williams
Gustavus Adolphus
Wheaton MA
Scranton
Hampden-Sydney
Brandeis
WI Whitewater
Amherst
Edgewood
Washington & Lee
Denison

[Freddyfud]

Live Selection Show about to begin...

[kansas hokie]

some thoughts on the bracket...

Chicago and Wash U in same pod??? that's #8 and 9 ranked teams!

Tufts and Chicago did not get to host both women and men, think only Trinity was allowed to do so.

Something had to prevent UW Eau Claire from hosting. they are #10 and are going to #5, very similar to Chicago/Wash U conflict. UW-Whitewater is hosting (#27) and those two teams could easily be swapped if Eau Claire could host.

Trinity hosting texas pod makes sense along with two other Texas teams. the committee chose to send Whitman (#44) to Texas as the #2 seed in the pod. Makes the pod imbalanced, but Whitman was flying somewhere and this allowed them to fly someone else to meet a need.

In the end, they will only keep the top 8 from playing each other, after that, all bets are off.

[rdanie03]

some thoughts on the bracket...


Tufts and Chicago did not get to host both women and men, think only Trinity was allowed to do so.

 

I heard this morning that Tufts didn't want to host both this weekend, but are likely to do so if both the men and women make the sweet 16.

[Kuiper]

A few initial comments on Region X teams:

1.  Fields/Attendance in the Trinity Pod

Get ready for complaints about Trinity's field with both men and women playing on the same field and rain currently in the forecast for the second day of games on Sunday the 16th.  At least it is supposed to be dry during the week though.

The pod, however, should have strong attendance with both men's and women's teams from Trinity and Hardin-Simmons in this pod.  Plus, Texas Lutheran is only 30-35 minutes away from Trinity.

2.  Trinity/Texas Lutheran/Hardin-Simmons familiarity

The three Texas teams are very familiar with each other.  Trinity has beaten both Texas Lutheran (1-0) and Hardin-Simmons (2-0) this season and Texas Lutheran beat Hardin-Simmons 2-0 in the opening game of the season.  Trinity has a 37-7-1 all time record against Texas Lutheran and a 26-2-2 record against Hardin-Simmons and those two teams have played every year for the last five years, with Texas Lutheran winning 4 of those 5.

3. Whitman

Whitman may not have played any of these teams this year, but they did tie Colorado College from the SCAC and Mary Hardin-Baylor from the ASC back in early September, so they have some familiarity with the play in those conferences this season and with common opponents.

This trip and some of the teams, however, should be very familiar to some of the key Whitman juniors and seniors.  In 2023, Whitman traveled to Texas and tied Hardin-Simmons 1-1 and lost to Trinity 3-1 (as well as losing to Southwestern 2-1).  Lucas McAllister, Takahiro Hikida, Jude Clum-Stockton, and Riki Kobayashi all played minutes in those games for Whitman and so did Adam Knutsen, Luke Mayfield, Zach Anderson, Camerson Smith, Finnegan Saunders, and Ethan Chowdrey for Trinity as well as Carson Null, Jerron Garcia, Omar Estrada, Edwin Macias, and Diego Espinoza.  So, if Whitman can get past Texas Lutheran, they will be facing teams and players they have played before.

3. Occidental in Minnesota

Occidental has at least two players who are very familiar with the MIAC and playing in the cold weather in Minneapolis, as well as probably access to the scouting reports from two different MIAC opponents on Augsburg. 

Junior MF Elijah Edelman, who is leading the team with 11 assists and third on the team with 5 goals, transferred from Macalester to Occidental this season.  While at Macalester, he started and played 80-90 minutes in all four games they played against Augsburg, including a win and a tie in 2023 and two losses in 2024.  Edelman has a goal and an assist in those 4 games.

Junior D Alex Yu, who started 5 games this season for Oxy and played 8 games overall, transferred from St. Olaf's to Occidental this season.  While Yu was on the squad, St. Olaf played Augsburg three times, beating them twice and tying them once.  Yu is also a Minnesota native, hailing from Eden Prairie, which is a suburb of Minneapolis and about 20 minutes away from Augsburg's campus. Perhaps the Oxy players will get some home cooking and local fan support while they are in town.

They also have at least a few other players familiar with the cold weather, including freshman forwards Colton Sheffert and Ted O'Brien, both from Utah, who played 9  and 14 games, respectively, this season.  Fortunately, it looks more like low to mid-50s and chance of light rain, which should be perfect weather for the bevy of players from the Pacific Northwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeastern states, and the UK, that dot the Oxy roster.  The California natives, however, will be the ones wearing long sleeves and field player gloves.

[blue_jays]

some thoughts on the bracket...

Chicago and Wash U in same pod??? that's #8 and 9 ranked teams!

Lazy and bad bracketing right there. Potential conference match-up in round 2 should never happen.

[WUPHF]

Tufts and Chicago did not get to host both women and men, think only Trinity was allowed to do so.

I have to think that UChicago decided against hosting both the Men and Women.  Football is on the road, but they have their Men's and Women's basketball tournaments on Saturday and Sunday. 

[kansas hokie]

Great stuff here from the St. Olaf coach...going off on the NCAA selection.

https://x.com/justin_oliver11/status/1987929210199867637?s=46&t=0FevKR5xEJQBlFEq3_7kag

[mngopher]

Great stuff here from the St. Olaf coach...going off on the NCAA selection.

https://x.com/justin_oliver11/status/1987929210199867637?s=46&t=0FevKR5xEJQBlFEq3_7kag

Justin can be kind of a hot head, but he's not wrong here. 

This year the 4 toughest pods based on average NPI are the UWW, Macalester, St. Olaf, and Augsburg pods.
Olaf, Mac, and Chicago are all top 8 in NPI, yet all ended up with another top 16 NPI team in their pod.
Chicago, WashU, Macalester, Olaf, Lake Forest, and UWEC are all in the top 14 NPI and will play first round opponents in the NPI top 75. Meanwhile, Wesleyan (#13), Middlebury (#15), Hobart (#16), Williams (#17), Cortland (#18), & Dickinson (#22) all play opponents outside the NPI top 100. Some by a lot.
I'm sure Oliver is also not very happy that as the NPI #3 team in the country his squad is rewarded with a first round matchup against UW-Superior, one of only two teams to beat Olaf this season. (And the one that eliminated them last season.)

The only good news is it is actually better than last year when the entire North/Midwest was in 3 pods that all flowed to the same regional. At least this year the upper Midwest will have a chance to get more than one team in the final four.

It is what it is. In the NCAA tournament you are going to have to win games against good teams to get a national title. It's frustrating that bracketing works this way, but I get it that $$ is the ultimate factor. Because of it the paths that each team faces are not equal.

[SimpleCoach]

Great stuff here from the St. Olaf coach...going off on the NCAA selection.

https://x.com/justin_oliver11/status/1987929210199867637?s=46&t=0FevKR5xEJQBlFEq3_7kag

Unfortunately, until the randomize the the drawing, this is what you get.

SC.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Great stuff here from the St. Olaf coach...going off on the NCAA selection.

https://x.com/justin_oliver11/status/1987929210199867637?s=46&t=0FevKR5xEJQBlFEq3_7kag

Justin can be kind of a hot head, but he's not wrong here. 

This year the 4 toughest pods based on average NPI are the UWW, Macalester, St. Olaf, and Augsburg pods.
Olaf, Mac, and Chicago are all top 8 in NPI, yet all ended up with another top 16 NPI team in their pod.
Chicago, WashU, Macalester, Olaf, Lake Forest, and UWEC are all in the top 14 NPI and will play first round opponents in the NPI top 75. Meanwhile, Wesleyan (#13), Middlebury (#15), Hobart (#16), Williams (#17), Cortland (#18), & Dickinson (#22) all play opponents outside the NPI top 100. Some by a lot.
I'm sure Oliver is also not very happy that as the NPI #3 team in the country his squad is rewarded with a first round matchup against UW-Superior, one of only two teams to beat Olaf this season. (And the one that eliminated them last season.)

The only good news is it is actually better than last year when the entire North/Midwest was in 3 pods that all flowed to the same regional. At least this year the upper Midwest will have a chance to get more than one team in the final four.

It is what it is. In the NCAA tournament you are going to have to win games against good teams to get a national title. It's frustrating that bracketing works this way, but I get it that $$ is the ultimate factor. Because of it the paths that each team faces are not equal.

Or some pigs are more equal than others??!!

[Sandon Mibut]

Some analysis and commentary with focus moreso on the Northeast, South and New England teams:

Midwest teams certainly have some tough 2nd round matchups. The left-half of the bracket with 5 NESCAC teams (n addition to the tough Midwest matchups) also looks challenging. Top-left quadrant with Tufts-Conn-Bowdoin means only one of those 3 teams will make it to the Final 4. Augsburg (#2) and Lynchburg (#4), conversely, seem to have the easiest road to the Final 4. I would also say #5 Emory and #13 Wesleyan have fairly easy paths to Final-4 as well.

St Olaf could face Williams in the 3rd round who I'd say are not playing great in the latter-half of the season. Williams had a big win early September at Tufts (basically their only good W of the year) but they've done nothing since a 1-0 win at Bates over a month ago. They've lost to Wesleyan, Conn, Middlebury, and Conn in the last 4 weeks with 1 GF. It's a long way of saying Williams could be the easiest opponent in the 3rd round but at the same time it's a school with strong pedigree and plenty of experience facing top teams.

Macalaster-Middlebury is another potential 3rd round match with Middlebury being another school with incredible history that has found their stride in the last 3 weeks. Minimal goals (GF) til late October but they're 4-1-0 in their last five games defeating Vassar, Bates, Williams, Bowdoin and losing in OT to Tufts with a combined 13 GF in those last 5 games with at least 2 GF in every contest. Their defense has been excellent all season with only 3 multi-GA games this year (Tufts, Vassar, and Tufts each with 2 GA). Also of note regarding Middlebury is their aptitude for earning cards: leading the NESCAC with 37 YC + 2 RC in 16 regular-season games plus another 5 YC vs Bowdoin in the playoffs and 5 more YC vs Tufts in the playoffs!!

Tufts' 2nd round would be at #26 Brandeis (granted it's only a 20 minute drive but still) who has played 8 games amongst top-80 teams with a 3-2-2 record: W @ Bridgewater, W @ Wesleyan, W @ Babson, Tie vs Wheaton, Tie vs Emory, Loss [2-3] at Chicago, and one blowout loss [0-4] at WashU. Brandeis has 5 games against Top-21 teams in which they're 1-2-2 which means they're no stranger to very good competition and they have some offense which in single-elimination goes a long way: 13 GF and 14GA in their 7 games against top-80 opponents and 8 GF - 12 GA in 5 games against top-21 teams. Tufts has solid offense and defense with only 2 multi-GA games this year (1-3 loss to Williams which was not nearly as bad a beating as the score implies, and the Tufts 3-2 comeback win vs Middlebury last weekend. Some have commented that Tufts have scored a lot of PKs this year (10 or perhaps 11 goals on 11 or 12 attempts) but most of them, I believe, have been in non-NESCAC games.

Hobart (potential 3rd round opponent for Tufts) is undefeated at 13-0-5 however most of their opponents are outside the top-100 NPI (probably 75% of Hobart's opponents are lower-ranked NPI then 80+% of Tufts opponents this year). I can't comment much on Hobart. Hobart might be an easier 3rd round for Tufts (if they get there) than their 2nd rounch match at Brandeis.

Conn-Bowdoin in the 3rd round would be tough. Conn is 8-1-2 in their 11 games since a loss vs Tufts on 9/21 (with the single loss being... Tufts [again] in the NESCAC final game on 11/9. I think any non-biased observer would say Conn is a very strong team and they've been playing very well for the last 2 months straight. Bowdoin is also playing quite well and fairly consistent in the last 5+ weeks. Since the Bowdoin 9/28 loss at Hamilton (top ~50 NPI) they've gone 6-1-2 including regular season wins over Middlebury, Wesleyan and Amherst, coupled with ties at Williams and vs Tufts, and one loss to Middlebury in the NESCAC quarterfinal. Bowdoin has the NESCAC player of the year in Senior midfield Tyler Huck (2022 rookie of year, 2023 and 2024 NESCAC 1st team) who lead the NESCAC in goals and assist for 27 points total.

I'm not as familiar with the right-half of the bracket but as I said, I think Augsburg and Lynchburg have the 2 easiest paths to the final-4. Augsburg vs Amherst as a potential 3rd round match: Amherst is nothing like what they've been in recent years. Their "scoring margin" is 3rd-worst in NESCAC (9th of 11 teams) and they are 4-5-0 in their last 9 games dating back to late September. They have an abnormally tall team (which I think is common for Amherst) and they commit a lot of fouls (tied with Middlebury at 37 YC for the regular season).

Wesleyan (lower-right quadrant) has been consistent all year. They suffered non-conference early season losses at Babson [0-1] and vs Brandeis [1-2] but Babson is NPI #63 and Brandeis is NPI #26 so they're not terrible losses. Ever since their 9/16 loss to Brandeis they are 7-2-3 with the 2 losses being vs #9 NPI Bowdoin [0-1] and #7 NPI Conn [1-2]. In that stretch they also defeated Middlebury, Amherst, Williams and Amherst and had ties at Tufts [1-1] and vs Conn [1-1]. Aside from scoring 5 goals in their 2 matches hosting Amherst, Wesleyan does not have the offensive firepower of the top-ranked NESCAC teams. They seem to eke-out a lot of low-scoring wins and ties and they only had 1 good opponent (not named Amherst) with 2 goals whereas all their other tough matchups have been 0 or 1 single goal for Wesleyan. That said, I think the Wesleyan's lower-right quadrant is the easiest of all 4 quadrants and Wesleyan's right-half bracket is easier than the left half, so Wesleyan could have the best opportunity of any NESCAC school to reach the final 4.

Emory being ranked #5 is comical to me. They're 1-1-2 vs top-30 NPI teams (only win was in August vs #29 Wash&Lee). After the W&L win, their next best win was at #46 Univ of Rochester. No way is Emory equivalent to #2 in the NESCAC! I would say Emory is behind Tufts, Conn, Bowdoin, Wesleyan, and Midd and they may not even be as good as Williams or Amherst. I imagine the Midwest also has several teams that are better than Emory. Emory appears to lack offense with only 5 GF in their 6 matches against top-50 NPI teams (2-1-3). Emory tied Brandeis 1-1 (Brandeis NPI #26 who Tufts would potentially face in the 2nd round).

Additionally, Lynchburg at #4 is overrated. They have not faced any top-20 NPI teams this year! They only lost 1 game all season but it was their toughest opponent #23 Hampden-Sydney [0-2]. Their best 2 wins were both against #29 Washington & Lee (late regular season away game 2-0 win; ODAC championships hosting W&L 2-1 win). Again using #26 Brandeis as a barometer, it's hard to say that Lynchburg is much better (if at all) since Brandeis actually has a win and 2 ties against top-21 teams (plus 2 losses).

Between Chicago and WashU, if one of them survives the 2nd round I would like either of them over Trinity in the 3rd round. Trinity at 15-1-1 on the season lost (as home team) to their only tough opponent #19 Christopher Newport [2-3] and tied # 73 Berry 1-1 with a loss on PKs in their conference tournament. Trinity's best win for the year was a 2-1 win as home team vs #38 Southwestern. WashU offense looked more potent early in the season but they've managed their best 2 wins of the year within the last 2 weeks at #5 Emory [1-0... again I don't think Emory is truly #5] and hosting #8 Chicago [1-0]. Aside from a weird loss on 9/5, WashU lost 2 other games within the last few weeks: 2-3 at #46 Rochester and 0-1 at #121 NYU. Against top-30 NPI they're 4-0-0 so who knows.

Chicago: they have strong SOS this year with a lot of top-100 opponents including 7 games against top-30 NPI teams in which they are 2-2-3. They also tied #45 Carnegie Mellon and #95 Hope. I'm not really sure who would be the favorite between Chicago and WashU. They met recently at St Louis where WashU won 1-0.

I would love to hear commentary from people familiar with the MN and WI teams on what you think of their current trajectory and overall strengths or weakenesses.

[Sandon Mibut]

Augsburg 16-2-2 on the season are 4-0-1 against top-30 NPI teams with the tie vs #3 St. Olaf. However, they also have 2 oddball losses to Saint John's (#40 NPI but not in the NCAA tournament) losing 2-5 away and 1-2 home in the conference quarterfinals.

[Kuiper]

Some analysis and commentary with focus moreso on the Northeast, South and New England teams:

Midwest teams certainly have some tough 2nd round matchups. The left-half of the bracket with 5 NESCAC teams (n addition to the tough Midwest matchups) also looks challenging. Top-left quadrant with Tufts-Conn-Bowdoin means only one of those 3 teams will make it to the Final 4. Augsburg (#2) and Lynchburg (#4), conversely, seem to have the easiest road to the Final 4. I would also say #5 Emory and #13 Wesleyan have fairly easy paths to Final-4 as well.

St Olaf could face Williams in the 3rd round who I'd say are not playing great in the latter-half of the season. Williams had a big win early September at Tufts (basically their only good W of the year) but they've done nothing since a 1-0 win at Bates over a month ago. They've lost to Wesleyan, Conn, Middlebury, and Conn in the last 4 weeks with 1 GF. It's a long way of saying Williams could be the easiest opponent in the 3rd round but at the same time it's a school with strong pedigree and plenty of experience facing top teams.

Macalaster-Middlebury is another potential 3rd round match with Middlebury being another school with incredible history that has found their stride in the last 3 weeks. Minimal goals (GF) til late October but they're 4-1-0 in their last five games defeating Vassar, Bates, Williams, Bowdoin and losing in OT to Tufts with a combined 13 GF in those last 5 games with at least 2 GF in every contest. Their defense has been excellent all season with only 3 multi-GA games this year (Tufts, Vassar, and Tufts each with 2 GA). Also of note regarding Middlebury is their aptitude for earning cards: leading the NESCAC with 37 YC + 2 RC in 16 regular-season games plus another 5 YC vs Bowdoin in the playoffs and 5 more YC vs Tufts in the playoffs!!

Tufts' 2nd round would be at #26 Brandeis (granted it's only a 20 minute drive but still) who has played 8 games amongst top-80 teams with a 3-2-2 record: W @ Bridgewater, W @ Wesleyan, W @ Babson, Tie vs Wheaton, Tie vs Emory, Loss [2-3] at Chicago, and one blowout loss [0-4] at WashU. Brandeis has 5 games against Top-21 teams in which they're 1-2-2 which means they're no stranger to very good competition and they have some offense which in single-elimination goes a long way: 13 GF and 14GA in their 7 games against top-80 opponents and 8 GF - 12 GA in 5 games against top-21 teams. Tufts has solid offense and defense with only 2 multi-GA games this year (1-3 loss to Williams which was not nearly as bad a beating as the score implies, and the Tufts 3-2 comeback win vs Middlebury last weekend. Some have commented that Tufts have scored a lot of PKs this year (10 or perhaps 11 goals on 11 or 12 attempts) but most of them, I believe, have been in non-NESCAC games.

Hobart (potential 3rd round opponent for Tufts) is undefeated at 13-0-5 however most of their opponents are outside the top-100 NPI (probably 75% of Hobart's opponents are lower-ranked NPI then 80+% of Tufts opponents this year). I can't comment much on Hobart. Hobart might be an easier 3rd round for Tufts (if they get there) than their 2nd rounch match at Brandeis.

Conn-Bowdoin in the 3rd round would be tough. Conn is 8-1-2 in their 11 games since a loss vs Tufts on 9/21 (with the single loss being... Tufts [again] in the NESCAC final game on 11/9. I think any non-biased observer would say Conn is a very strong team and they've been playing very well for the last 2 months straight. Bowdoin is also playing quite well and fairly consistent in the last 5+ weeks. Since the Bowdoin 9/28 loss at Hamilton (top ~50 NPI) they've gone 6-1-2 including regular season wins over Middlebury, Wesleyan and Amherst, coupled with ties at Williams and vs Tufts, and one loss to Middlebury in the NESCAC quarterfinal. Bowdoin has the NESCAC player of the year in Senior midfield Tyler Huck (2022 rookie of year, 2023 and 2024 NESCAC 1st team) who lead the NESCAC in goals and assist for 27 points total.

I'm not as familiar with the right-half of the bracket but as I said, I think Augsburg and Lynchburg have the 2 easiest paths to the final-4. Augsburg vs Amherst as a potential 3rd round match: Amherst is nothing like what they've been in recent years. Their "scoring margin" is 3rd-worst in NESCAC (9th of 11 teams) and they are 4-5-0 in their last 9 games dating back to late September. They have an abnormally tall team (which I think is common for Amherst) and they commit a lot of fouls (tied with Middlebury at 37 YC for the regular season).

Wesleyan (lower-right quadrant) has been consistent all year. They suffered non-conference early season losses at Babson [0-1] and vs Brandeis [1-2] but Babson is NPI #63 and Brandeis is NPI #26 so they're not terrible losses. Ever since their 9/16 loss to Brandeis they are 7-2-3 with the 2 losses being vs #9 NPI Bowdoin [0-1] and #7 NPI Conn [1-2]. In that stretch they also defeated Middlebury, Amherst, Williams and Amherst and had ties at Tufts [1-1] and vs Conn [1-1]. Aside from scoring 5 goals in their 2 matches hosting Amherst, Wesleyan does not have the offensive firepower of the top-ranked NESCAC teams. They seem to eke-out a lot of low-scoring wins and ties and they only had 1 good opponent (not named Amherst) with 2 goals whereas all their other tough matchups have been 0 or 1 single goal for Wesleyan. That said, I think the Wesleyan's lower-right quadrant is the easiest of all 4 quadrants and Wesleyan's right-half bracket is easier than the left half, so Wesleyan could have the best opportunity of any NESCAC school to reach the final 4.

Emory being ranked #5 is comical to me. They're 1-1-2 vs top-30 NPI teams (only win was in August vs #29 Wash&Lee). After the W&L win, their next best win was at #46 Univ of Rochester. No way is Emory equivalent to #2 in the NESCAC! I would say Emory is behind Tufts, Conn, Bowdoin, Wesleyan, and Midd and they may not even be as good as Williams or Amherst. I imagine the Midwest also has several teams that are better than Emory. Emory appears to lack offense with only 5 GF in their 6 matches against top-50 NPI teams (2-1-3). Emory tied Brandeis 1-1 (Brandeis NPI #26 who Tufts would potentially face in the 2nd round).

Additionally, Lynchburg at #4 is overrated. They have not faced any top-20 NPI teams this year! They only lost 1 game all season but it was their toughest opponent #23 Hampden-Sydney [0-2]. Their best 2 wins were both against #29 Washington & Lee (late regular season away game 2-0 win; ODAC championships hosting W&L 2-1 win). Again using #26 Brandeis as a barometer, it's hard to say that Lynchburg is much better (if at all) since Brandeis actually has a win and 2 ties against top-21 teams (plus 2 losses).

Between Chicago and WashU, if one of them survives the 2nd round I would like either of them over Trinity in the 3rd round. Trinity at 15-1-1 on the season lost (as home team) to their only tough opponent #19 Christopher Newport [2-3] and tied # 73 Berry 1-1 with a loss on PKs in their conference tournament. Trinity's best win for the year was a 2-1 win as home team vs #38 Southwestern. WashU offense looked more potent early in the season but they've managed their best 2 wins of the year within the last 2 weeks at #5 Emory [1-0... again I don't think Emory is truly #5] and hosting #8 Chicago [1-0]. Aside from a weird loss on 9/5, WashU lost 2 other games within the last few weeks: 2-3 at #46 Rochester and 0-1 at #121 NYU. Against top-30 NPI they're 4-0-0 so who knows.

Chicago: they have strong SOS this year with a lot of top-100 opponents including 7 games against top-30 NPI teams in which they are 2-2-3. They also tied #45 Carnegie Mellon and #95 Hope. I'm not really sure who would be the favorite between Chicago and WashU. They met recently at St Louis where WashU won 1-0.

I would love to hear commentary from people familiar with the MN and WI teams on what you think of their current trajectory and overall strengths or weakenesses.

One minor correction on your discussion of Trinity.  Trinity might have been classified as home team, but Christopher Newport beat them 3-2 on a neutral field, not at Trinity's home.  They were playing in Abilene at Hardin-Simmons, which is obviously closer to San Antonio than Newport News is to Abilene, but still a decent bus ride away (it would be one of the longest road trips in the NESCAC not involving Hamilton).  Interestingly, Trinity's one loss and one tie were both at neutral sites.  They were 10-0 at home and 5-0 away, but 0-1-1 at neutral sites. Just a quirky fact I suppose.

On the broader point, while the odds are that Trinity will advance out of its pod just based on NPI rankings, the odds are against them winning in the third round if they have to travel.  Trinity has not won a third round NCAA Tournament away game since 2015, when they beat Brandeis 2-0 in Amherst, MA.