Preseason thoughts on 1-5:  Emory/University of Chicago

Here (fwiw) I would put Chicago as the #2 and then Emory as the #3.

Who can forget the incredible final four game last year between Wash U and U of Chicago!  In my opinion, that game was the best game in all D3 for 2025.  It was finally decided in the 14th round of penalty kicks and Wash U came out on top after Chicago had three chances to end the game if they were able to convert their penalty kick!
 
Chicago definitely played Wash U tougher than Emory, tying them at that end of the regular season (albeit Wash U had already locked up the UAA championship) and then pushed them to the absolute brink in Salem VA.  That is really my only rationale for putting them ahead of Emory preseason.

Chicago lost 6 players to graduation and Emory lost 7, but Emory did retain all their top scorers from last season.  However, they (Emory) lost their All American center back and All American goalkeeper.  For Chicago they have to replace their All American midfielder Kerrigan who was second on the team in goals scored with 8 and their senior goalkeeper Sasaki.

Quote from: unionpalooza on August 21, 2026, 06:20:23 PM

Quote from: unionpalooza on August 21, 2026, 06:08:11 PMI've often wondered to what extent the proliferation of D1AA/FCS and D2 programs in the Northeast is part of the reason that NY/PA/NJ went from regularly producing D3 title contenders to producing almost none. Prior to 2000, a team from one of those states played in the Stagg Bowl 23 out of 28 years.  Some of that is explained by regional brackets, but certainly not all. A lot of the difference-maker kids who would have have been playing at Ithaca, Union, Rowan, W&J, etc. once upon a time are, these days, playing at UAlbany,Stony Brook, Wagner, Fordham, etc. (all former D3), Monmouth/Robert Morris type schools (new programs) or Lafayette/Lehigh-type schools (which used to be non-scholarship).  There was a little bit of this elsewhere - for example, the Pioneer League teams that moved up in the Midwest, but they're all non-scholarship.

As a data point, consider that three of the best QBs to play D3 in NY since 2000 - Jason Boltus, Joe Germinero, and Shane Sweeney - were all transfers from just one of those schools: UAlbany. (There's also Tyler Szalkowski, another UAlbany transfer currently tearing it up at Utica).

What proliferation of D1AA/FCS and D2? What programs have been added since 2000? The one-time d3 teams you mentioned left about three decades ago.

Mt Union started its championship run in 1993. They eliminated most teams from the East Region. UMHB started its playoff run in 2001. The WIAC moved from NAIA to NCAA and began winning championships in 1992. NWC (Linfield) moved to NCAA in 1996. The relevant proliferation of programs was in D3.

Preseason thoughts on 1-5:  Wash U

Wash U should definitely be #1 preseason, and I would agree with Simple Coach that until proven otherwise, the national championship is theirs to lose.  Having won in '24 and '25 they are going for the very rare 3-pete.  The only team to have ever done that in d3 soccer was UC San Diego who won three in row from 1995 through1997 (1997 would be UC San Diego's 5th and final D3 national championship because in 2000 they would switch to division 2).

For Wash U to repeat, they are going to have to fill the holes left by 2-time All American Grace Ehlert and All American Ella Koleno.  Ehlert was second in goals scored on the team (with 14) behind Olivia Clemons, the National Player Of The Year for 2025 (17 goals scored).  Meanwhile, Koleno led the team in assists last year with 11 while also scoring 9 goals (good enough for a tie for 3rd on the team).  Interestingly, Clemons won the NPOTY while mostly coming off the bench (she did start in 3 games).  I'm not sure there has ever been a NPOTY that wasn't a starter in a majority of games (baring any injury issues).

I would expect nothing else then Coach Conlon will have players ready to step into those roles and so Wash U is the team to beat in D3 Women's Soccer.

Quote from: MCScots2013 on August 22, 2026, 01:24:05 PMI'm guessing you are tracking new transfers for 2026,  not total transfers (ie, a second year at guy at new school)?

That's correct, eventually I'll extend the data model back further than one year.  Basically if the new roster lists them as a transfer, if I can find their former school in my giant list of most universities/colleges, or I can name match them with at least one other identifying feature such as high school, home town, etc...

It still can't tell the difference between the bethels but I haven't felt like finding a way to have it differentiate that...

I'm guessing you are tracking new transfers for 2026,  not total transfers (ie, a second year at guy at new school)?

Quote from: MCScots2013 on August 22, 2026, 10:23:14 AMWould be interesting to know how many guys transferred (other than the above mentioned Wolfenbarger). Even in smaller levels you see guys leave when a coach is canned or takes a new job.

The new tracker Etchglow has put together says they lost 33 total including graduation. As the bugs are worked out this is going to be a fun tool to have.

I fixed the logic so it picked up John Wolfenbarger.  Looks like the old logic wasn't liking the different hometowns.  If yall see any other stuff that is wrong let me know.  I'm trying to find a better way then downloading ALL the division rosters to track transfers and am failing at the moment...

Quote from: Kuiper on August 22, 2026, 12:25:03 PM

Quote from: D3Navy on August 22, 2026, 11:54:14 AM

Quote from: Kuiper on August 21, 2026, 11:50:58 PMIn Trinity's first preseason context, they took on St. Mary's (D2).

St. Mary's won 2-1 on a second half goal

Solid result for Trinity.  Here was their starting lineup. 

Hmm.  This didn't match reality.  I was there.  These were not the players on the field at the start and Salinas didn't play.

I hope the team learned a lot.  Particularly how to defend the counterattack.  St Mary's sliced through them.

Onward.

Thanks for the intel.  I was a little surprised they even posted a starting lineup for a preseason scrimmage, but it didn't look implausible, so I reposted it here.

I'm a little surprised they didn't look like they knew how to defend a counterattack.  Trinity has had to defend against counterattacks for years given that they often have possession in the opponent's half.  Of course, they lost Luke Chandler, who was a stalwart at CB the last two years and if Luke Mayfield or Daniel Uriquidi weren't available for this match, that would hurt quite a bit.  They also demand a lot of all their players to counter press in that situation and if they have new players, that can take some time to get right.

Most of those players did play at some point during the match,  they didn't all start together.  In the first half, Trinity had solid possession in St Mary's half. Not as much in the second half. In general, D2 St. Mary's players were quicker and a little more technically competent, usually winning contested possession. I think Trinity realizes they have some work to do.

Quote from: D3Navy on August 22, 2026, 11:54:14 AM

Quote from: Kuiper on August 21, 2026, 11:50:58 PMIn Trinity's first preseason context, they took on St. Mary's (D2).

St. Mary's won 2-1 on a second half goal

Solid result for Trinity.  Here was their starting lineup. 

Hmm.  This didn't match reality.  I was there.  These were not the players on the field at the start and Salinas didn't play.

I hope the team learned a lot.  Particularly how to defend the counterattack.  St Mary's sliced through them.

Onward.

Thanks for the intel.  I was a little surprised they even posted a starting lineup for a preseason scrimmage, but it didn't look implausible, so I reposted it here.

I'm a little surprised they didn't look like they knew how to defend a counterattack.  Trinity has had to defend against counterattacks for years given that they often have possession in the opponent's half.  Of course, they lost Luke Chandler, who was a stalwart at CB the last two years and if Luke Mayfield or Daniel Uriquidi weren't available for this match, that would hurt quite a bit.  They also demand a lot of all their players to counter press in that situation and if they have new players, that can take some time to get right.

Quote from: Kuiper on August 21, 2026, 11:50:58 PMIn Trinity's first preseason context, they took on St. Mary's (D2).

St. Mary's won 2-1 on a second half goal

Solid result for Trinity.  Here was their starting lineup. 

Hmm.  This didn't match reality.  I was there.  These were not the players on the field at the start and Salinas didn't play.

I hope the team learned a lot.  Particularly how to defend the counterattack.  St Mary's sliced through them.

Onward.

NPU roster is posted:

https://athletics.northpark.edu/sports/mens-soccer/roster