FB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[KnightSlappy]

Hypothetical question (and I'm not overlooking any of the upcoming games):

Should Hope and Adrian win out (meaning an Alma loss in the final game of the MIAA) we would have a 3 way tie for first at 6-1.  So what is the tie-breaker to determine the automatic qualifier in that kind of scenario?  I would assume that with the same MIAA record, and the losses coming from each other, you have to then go to non-league record (which would eliminate Alma) but Adrian and Hope are still tied.  At that point does Hope get it for beating Adrian head-to-head? Do we at some point go to higher NPI?  Do we anticipate 2 playoff bound teams if we have have two 9-1 teams?

According to Logan Hansen's Simulation Summary Tool:
https://loghan.shinyapps.io/hansen-ratings-diii-football-season-simulation-distributions/

Adrian and Hope would almost certainly each get in with only one loss.

These are mutually exclusive events, but Adrian, Alma, Hope, and Calvin all seem to be in position to make the playoff with high probability if they win out. Of this group only Hope probably still has some life with an additional loss.

[oldknight]

I don't know anything about D3 football, but with Calvin's 50-20 win over Olivet yesterday, they have guaranteed themselves a winning season in just their second year of football.  This seems like a pretty big accomplishment.  Long ways to go before they are challenging the teams at the top of the league, but win 1 of their last 2 games, and they will finish 4th with a 7-3 record, 4-3 in conference.

When Calvin announced the beginning of football at the school, I asked a knowledgeable person at Calvin how long it would take for one of its teams to have a winning record in a season. "Five years" was the answer I got. Both Trent Figg and the Calvin community should be delighted to see this prediction was far too pessimistic.

[ADAWGISADAWG4LIFE]

These are mutually exclusive events, but Adrian, Alma, Hope, and Calvin all seem to be in position to make the playoff with high probability if they win out

Calvin?

[Pat Coleman]

These are mutually exclusive events, but Adrian, Alma, Hope, and Calvin all seem to be in position to make the playoff with high probability if they win out

Calvin?

11 days ago, yes, that was the case.

[FishHack76]

Just to see where my local teams might fit in. I did the potential brackets for the four "Western" top-eight seeds. Of course, with this, there are a great number of possibilities and any little change can start a domino effect.
I tried to make sure the teams in the Top 24 in the NPI got a first-round bye and looked at this geographically -- except for the island game of Chapman-Whitworth, whose winner also could get sent to NCC again (because of O'Hare Airport). Any or all five of the Michigan or Indiana teams could go east but I sent them toward Wartburg or NCC. All those schools are too far of a drive from Bethel or UW-River Falls. Hardin-Simmons and Trinity (Texas) is another island game that could be in the mix? Again, there are a number of possibilities - obviously.


Hanover at Alma
winner goes to NCC

UW-Whitewater at Hope

---------------------

DePauw at Wheaton
winner goes to Wartburg

Wabash at Monmouth

----------------------
Chapman at Whitworth
winner goes to Bethel (Minneapolis-St. Paul airport)

Central at UW-Platteville (or UW-LaCrosse)

---------------------
Crown at Concordia (WI)
winner goes to UW-River Falls

St. John's at UW-LaCrosse (or UW-Platteville)

[monsoon]

Have we figured out yet what the tie-breaker scenario is if Adrian-Alma-Hope all finish 6-1 in the league, with head-to-head also equal?

[monsoon]

Have we figured out yet what the tie-breaker scenario is if Adrian-Alma-Hope all finish 6-1 in the league, with head-to-head also equal?

Of course, Alma beating Adrian renders it moot with Alma owning the head-to-head over Hope. Thankful for the expanded field... in years prior that loss would have knocked Hope out, which would really have been a raw deal.

[tophini]

Just FYI at this point, but the MIAA names co-champs and the tiebreaker is only relevant for purposes of the AQ playoff bid. In a three-way tie, first look would be comparative results against the other conference opponents, going one-by-one down the standings. Since those were the same for all three, next tiebreaker is overall win percentage, which would have eliminated Alma. It then would have gone back to head-to-head, giving Hope the automatic bid over Adrian. But as you said, now a non-issue with Alma winning outright.