Future of Division III

[Ron Boerger]

If I understood correctly all their data comes from the Dept of Education's NCES/IPEDS database, then they draw conclusions (e.g. losing enrollment the last three years, etc.) directly from that data.

[WUPHF]

The Boston Globe has a new blog that is mostly paid, but you can do one Substack for free.  And the story about Brandeis is really interesting.

My favorite line is from the Brandeis president, hearing from others: 'You know what — I know we need to change, but I'm near the end of my tenure, let the next person do it.'"

https://globecollegetown.substack.com/p/arthur-levine-brandeis-liberal-arts

[Ralph Turner]

The Boston Globe has a new blog that is mostly paid, but you can do one Substack for free.  And the story about Brandeis is really interesting.

My favorite line is from the Brandeis president, hearing from others: 'You know what — I know we need to change, but I'm near the end of my tenure, let the next person do it.'"

https://globecollegetown.substack.com/p/arthur-levine-brandeis-liberal-arts

Okay, let the Board by him out of his contract and hire the person who needs to do the job and get on with it.

[WUPHF]

Okay, let the Board by him out of his contract and hire the person who needs to do the job and get on with it.

100%  15 or so years ago, the local public university hired a retired president for one more retirement job and he ran the institution accordingly.  Then they hired someone who had never been a president before and had something to prove.  She is retiring now, but was a transformative leader in her six years at the helm.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Okay, let the Board by him out of his contract and hire the person who needs to do the job and get on with it.

100%  15 or so years ago, the local public university hired a retired president for one more retirement job and he ran the institution accordingly.  Then they hired someone who had never been a president before and had something to prove.  She is retiring now, but was a transformative leader in her six years at the helm.

I get the wisdom in not committing to radical change you cannot see through.  That could be bad for the school as well.  The best thing a person in that situation could do, though, is to form the committees and start having the meetings about what uncomfortable change would look like so the next person isn't coming in cold and having to sell a difficult vision.  Colleges take ages to change - there's nothing wrong with starting a visioning process well before most people have any kind of vision.

[IC798891]

The Boston Globe has a new blog that is mostly paid, but you can do one Substack for free.  And the story about Brandeis is really interesting.

My favorite line is from the Brandeis president, hearing from others: 'You know what — I know we need to change, but I'm near the end of my tenure, let the next person do it.'"

https://globecollegetown.substack.com/p/arthur-levine-brandeis-liberal-arts

Okay, let the Board by him out of his contract and hire the person who needs to do the job and get on with it.

I mean, to be fair to the president, I don't think it's laziness.

As anyone who has ever worked at a college can tell you, major changes take a lot of time. And every president is going to have different goals and visions for the institution. You don't want to hire a new president and tell them they have to put their initiatives on hold because your resources are pot committed to the stuff the last guy started.

Heck, you may even turn off good possible presidents who say, "I don't agree with this prior president's vision of necessary change, and I'm not starting my tenure trying to deal with it"

[WUPHF]

I mean, to be fair to the president, I don't think it's laziness.

As anyone who has ever worked at a college can tell you, major changes take a lot of time. And every president is going to have different goals and visions for the institution. You don't want to hire a new president and tell them they have to put their initiatives on hold because your resources are pot committed to the stuff the last guy started.

Heck, you may even turn off good possible presidents who say, "I don't agree with this prior president's vision of necessary change, and I'm not starting my tenure trying to deal with it"

It is hard to generalize a college or a college president.  But some are lazy and some just want the university that existed 20 years ago to exist forever.  And some do not have the time to wait for the change.

Not that you needed another take to hammer home the obvious point, but another story from the blog that after reviewing the financials of 43 liberal arts colleges in New England, 15 would not be able to make it through the next three years with the status quo.

https://globecollegetown.substack.com/p/steven-shulman-higher-ed-finances

[Ron Boerger]

While I don't disagree with the general premise, I can't stand guys who write stories saying things like "15 of 43 schools won't survive" and fail to provide any further information or, as in this case, even any kind of methodology because "it might hurt the schools" (paraphrasing, not quotes).  Basically, you're saying you'd rather have thousands of students fail to have the information they need to select schools that aren't (allegedly) in financial peril - or your analysis is so flimsy it won't withstand further inspection and/or subject you to a lawsuit.

Brandeis is a perfect example.  According to their 990s they have lost tens of millions of dollars every year since and including 2020 - anywhere from $20.5M to nearly $60M annually, including a $52M loss in 2025, yet their net assets have increased during that time from $1.23B to $1.52B.  The bulk of their assets are long-term investments (nearly $1.4B) and funds held by trustees or others ($146M), so despite the annual losses on paper they're probably not going anywhere, at least in the near term.  It's probably not one of the 15 he quantifies as at risk, but you don't know - and neither does anyone reading the article that mentions them prominently. 

[IC798891]

Reminds me very much of the "Syracuse is cutting 20% of its majors!" hysteria over programs that 1% of students were enrolled in.

It pains me to say, but my profession is just churning out yellow journalism-style clickbait on this stuff.

[Gray Fox]

Reminds me very much of the "Syracuse is cutting 20% of its majors!" hysteria over programs that 1% of students were enrolled in.

It pains me to say, but my profession is just churning out yellow journalism-style clickbait on this stuff.

But it makes great headlines.

[WUPHF]

While I don't disagree with the general premise, I can't stand guys who write stories saying things like "15 of 43 schools won't survive" and fail to provide any further information or, as in this case, even any kind of methodology because "it might hurt the schools" (paraphrasing, not quotes). 

He published his results in a 45 page report.

https://stevenmshulman.substack.com/p/discounting-decapitalization-and

[WUPHF]

I found this web site that lets one do a deep dive into the financial status of a university.

https://financialtracker.hechingerreport.org/

I had no idea that Trine was actually two universities.

One in Angola and another with industrial park campuses in Detroit and elsewhere that enroll over 10,000 international students.

[Ron Boerger]

While I don't disagree with the general premise, I can't stand guys who write stories saying things like "15 of 43 schools won't survive" and fail to provide any further information or, as in this case, even any kind of methodology because "it might hurt the schools" (paraphrasing, not quotes). 

He published his results in a 45 page report.

https://stevenmshulman.substack.com/p/discounting-decapitalization-and

Thanks.  The paragraphs below are *not* directed at you whatsoever but the author.

This substack post is still fairly general, offers no specifics about which schools fall into which category, talks about an self-created "opus" The Continuum – A New Framework for Assessing the Financial Health of America's Private Mainstream Colleges & Universities for which a quick google searched turned up zero returns (because it is under "peer review" and "it is not at all clear how it will be put out – if at all") and uses as a proof of validity Birmingham-Southern, which everyone who follows the subject seriously knew was in trouble over a decade ago and even further, given multiple episodes of financial mismanagement that made the end result inevitable.  It's like saying "my model proved that a jet without functioning engines flying 500 feet off the ground will crash."  Well, yeah, so does gravity. 

Many of the points raised are certainly valid.  If you are getting 78% of your annual revenue from tuition you have a problem and very little flexibility to make things better.  But his proposed solution to keep schools from going under - raising tuition *and* reducing discounting - likely would not have the "profound" [his emphasis] impact he poses given the current environment.

[WUPHF]

Thanks.  The paragraphs below are *not* directed at you whatsoever but the author.

Understood and likewise.  I really appreciate the posts from you and others here.

[CarollFan]

Brandeis is a perfect example.  According to their 990s they have lost tens of millions of dollars every year since and including 2020 - anywhere from $20.5M to nearly $60M annually, including a $52M loss in 2025, yet their net assets have increased during that time from $1.23B to $1.52B.  The bulk of their assets are long-term investments (nearly $1.4B) and funds held by trustees or others ($146M), so despite the annual losses on paper they're probably not going anywhere, at least in the near term.  It's probably not one of the 15 he quantifies as at risk, but you don't know - and neither does anyone reading the article that mentions them prominently. 

Let me start by saying I'm no expert. It seems to me reading some of these reviews on  the financial health of a school they distinguish net assets between restricted and unrestricted. Unrestricted being more flexible to use. Earnings from restricted assets are considered restricted also. In Brandeis's case in their last 990 around $1.3 billion of their net assets are restricted. So if you're burning thru your unrestricted net assets what options do you have in leveraging restricted net assets?