FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[CruFrenzy]

My take on MHB this year, and in previous years too, is pretty simple.  They're supremely athletic but not very well coached.  They win because they're simply bigger and faster.  Kind of like your best city high school teams.  Not clean or precise, just big and fast.  If you can stalemate them at the LOS and not get blown away over the top individually you'll be fine.  Otherwise it can get ugly.

Not very well coached? Seriously? Our athleticism is a strength no doubt but teams don't play in the Stagg Bowl 4/5 years running that are poorly coached, period.

[crufootball]

My take on MHB this year, and in previous years too, is pretty simple.  They're supremely athletic but not very well coached.  They win because they're simply bigger and faster.  Kind of like your best city high school teams.  Not clean or precise, just big and fast.  If you can stalemate them at the LOS and not get blown away over the top individually you'll be fine.  Otherwise it can get ugly.

Your best city high school teams must be very very good.

We can all argue about the strengths and weaknesses of players and coaches but it is a giant leap to say we only win because we are bigger and faster.

[USee]

My take on MHB this year, and in previous years too, is pretty simple.  They're supremely athletic but not very well coached.  They win because they're simply bigger and faster.  Kind of like your best city high school teams.  Not clean or precise, just big and fast.  If you can stalemate them at the LOS and not get blown away over the top individually you'll be fine.  Otherwise it can get ugly.

Your best city high school teams must be very very good.

We can all argue about the strengths and weaknesses of players and coaches but it is a giant leap to say we only win because we are bigger and faster.

So it's clear, HSCoach is a Mt Union guy and knows a thing or two about Stagg Bowls and MHB from up close. Doesn't mean any  has to agree with him but he's been right a lot more than he's been wrong over decades.

[robertgoulet]

In looking at the 2-deeps it appears that the main size disparity is on the MHB O-line. They're much heavier than I had expected.

Everywhere else looks about as expected and pretty similar to NCC, outside of the WR Jordan and their QB.

https://northcentralcardinals.com/documents/2021/12/15/fb_media_notes_121721.pdf

Also possibly of note is that NCC lists their usual starting OL and Wong at LB. Maybe hopes and dreams that they play or may be that they're actually good to go.

[WRMUalum13]

I don't think UMHB has a big enough talent gap to overcome poor coaching. Also if they were poorly coached wouldn't we consistently see blown coverage and missed assignments from their defense, or poor tackling? UMHB defenses always seem disciplined and fundamentally sound to me.

From a coaching standpoint I think UMHB typically suffers from overly conservative play calling on offense and maybe don't make the adjustments they need to, but I don't buy that they have enough talent to overcome coaching shortfalls on a consistent basis.

[Etchglow]

I don't think UMHB has a big enough talent gap to overcome poor coaching. Also if they were poorly coached wouldn't we consistently see blown coverage and missed assignments from their defense, or poor tackling? UMHB defenses always seem disciplined and fundamentally sound to me.

From a coaching standpoint I think UMHB typically suffers from overly conservative play calling on offense and maybe don't make the adjustments they need to, but I don't buy that they have enough talent to overcome coaching shortfalls on a consistent basis.

You hit the nail on the head. Coach Fredenburg was a defensive coach for 16 years (mostly for Baylor under Grant Teaff) before he became head coach at UMHB.  A lot of the time he still gets in that defensive mindset and will rely on the defense to win games. 

[kiko]

Catching up on this, but from the AFCA All-American article:

<snip>
Top Teams: Mount Union has been represented a total of 29 times by 27 players on the AFCA Division III Coaches' All-America Team since 1972.
</snip>

Without getting into who does and doesn't deserve recognition and focusing on just one data point, UMU having only 29 selections in the past quarter-century is as big of a red flag as there can be.

[bluenote]

North Central had the easiest road to the Stagg Bowl. I hope they get their butt kicked. Just my opinion ..... 

[bluenote]

Ice is mother****ing pumped for the game and will have his antenne jacked the **** up on top of his igloo for Friday night!

Ice Bear talks to himself or someone else I have no idea... But NCC is going down like a slurpy Ice cone.

[CardinalAlum]

North Central had the easiest road to the Stagg Bowl. I hope they get their butt kicked. Just my opinion ..... 

What time is Linfield playing Friday?.......oh right. 

[D O.C.]

No Friday night lights for LINFIELD.
NCC must play championship ball with few turnovers. That's pretty common in football, eh?

[blue_jays]

North Central had the easiest road to the Stagg Bowl. I hope they get their butt kicked. Just my opinion ..... 

Well as the defending champ who dominated the regular season, they should have the easiest road. That's one of the perks. Someone in the bracket has to have the easiest road, not their fault. That's a stupid reason to want them to lose. If you've got bracket gripes, take it up with the committee.
Also, it's not like they avoided Mount Union to get to the final. They beat Mount Union, and did it shorthanded.
I'm no NCC fan, but this is a great team and I'll always rep the region to go far.

[USee]

I wouldn't equate a "harder" route with "better" team. That would be a mistake.

[robertgoulet]

I wouldn't mistake a "harder" route with "better" team. That would be a mistake.

As flawed of a line of thinking as "we beat you when we played you (9 yrs ago) and we didn't beat MHB this year so you can't win"?

[USee]

Here are my final thoughts on the game:

NCC is going to run the ball and force MHB to play with 1 safety instead of their usual 2. If they can't do that, MHB will win fairly easily. I am assuming NCC is good enough to force that to happen. Not because the MHB defensive front isn't good enough, but it's a numbers game. Once that happens, NCC will continue to run the ball (Just like they did against Wheaton, even with limited success-Wheaton played a lot with one safety). At that point NCC is going to take their shots with Kamienski, Hardy and Williams, as well as Greenfield/Hill out of the backfield. Executing those shots will determine the success of the game. Against the Thunder, they hit about 4-5 of those and those led to their points. I don't think MHB's front is better against the run than Wheaton's front, equal maybe, better, no. That experience for NCC will be telling. MHB is definitely more talented and experienced on the back end though so the battle of those WR's and Fritz etc will be one to watch. Lehnen is going to be key as well both in his accuracy as well as his running ability.

On the other side, MHB is going to run the ball but ultimately they want to push the ball down the field with the pass game. That is who they are. Take a look at their games this year, pick any game and any drive and it likely contains a 20+ yard play as part of that drive. I have only seen 2-3x all season where they drove the ball down the field without a big play and scored. Part of that is the competition, but its true in every playoff game as well. That's what they rely on. NCC is built to stop the big play and Beesely, Lindmark, Etc will have their hands full with Jordan, Miller, and Martin (don't sleep on TE Ruckman). Beesely is easily NCC's best defender and you don't read/hear about him because he quieltly takes away your best WR. Mt Union's Wayne Ruby (a monster of an WR) had 4 catches and zero after the first quarter. He is better than any of UWW's db's in part because he is 6-3 and has spent the last 4 years playing bump and run coverage against any/everybody. If NCC can keep from giving up big plays in the pass game I believe MHB will get frustrated. The battle between #21 from both teams will be one to watch. Oddly enough I believe the more patience MHB has with the run game and picking their spots passing, the more success they will have. Ultimately, I just don't believe they will have that patience. If it pays off, they will win.

It's strength against strength in this game. I think NCC is the better team by a little and will win 24-17.