BB: OAC: Ohio Athletic Conference

[Dr. Acula]

I am making assumptions here based on tie breakers that aren't confirmed, but I think the scenario Muskingum needs is:

1)  BW sweeps JCU dropping the Streaks to 11-7.
2)  Muskingum sweeps Mount to finish 11-7.
3)  Berg splits with ONU putting ONU at 12-4.

We know 1 and 2 are certainties.  Those have to occur.  I believe #3 is necessary because ONU can finish 13-3 with a sweep.  If #2 occurs and Mount is 14-4 my suspicion is that ONU may win the conference based on OAC winning %.  If I have time I will go back through old standings to see if I can find an example of someone playing less OAC games.  Frankly, I doubt it happens often because they normally just postpone if it's in question with the weather.

[Dr. Acula]

BW swept and ONU swept.  Mount needs a split tomorrow to host.

[Dr. Acula]

Congrats to Mount on the split and regular season title.  Kind of a strange day in New Concord.  Muskingum hangs on to win game 1 by an 8-7 score.  Mount had the bases loaded with nobody out in the 9th and was unable to score.  Oddly looking at the box score Breeden was given the loss.  I'm assuming that will be corrected.  He went 3 IP and left down 1-0.  Mount went up 5-1 a few innings later before Musky came back.  Breeden should not get the loss there.

Game 2 was shortened due to rain in the bottom of the 6th w Mount up 11-5.  I can assure you that the final score would not have been 11-5.  Mount was beating up the Muskingum pen so I'm pretty confident they would have won, but no way it would have ended 11-5.  Both teams were hitting well. 

I feel bad for Wilm and Ott playing out the string tomorrow in a battle for last place.  Cap split with Etta so Berg and Cap are clear of those two.

[BobcatQB]

Congrats to Mount on the split and regular season title.  Kind of a strange day in New Concord.  Muskingum hangs on to win game 1 by an 8-7 score.  Mount had the bases loaded with nobody out in the 9th and was unable to score.  Oddly looking at the box score Breeden was given the loss.  I'm assuming that will be corrected.  He went 3 IP and left down 1-0.  Mount went up 5-1 a few innings later before Musky came back.  Breeden should not get the loss there.

Game 2 was shortened due to rain in the bottom of the 6th w Mount up 11-5.  I can assure you that the final score would not have been 11-5.  Mount was beating up the Muskingum pen so I'm pretty confident they would have won, but no way it would have ended 11-5.  Both teams were hitting well. 

I feel bad for Wilm and Ott playing out the string tomorrow in a battle for last place.  Cap split with Etta so Berg and Cap are clear of those two.

Surprising that they didn't use their best two relievers in game 2.  Wanted to give a SR some work maybe, I don't know.  Umpire didn't make any friends for sure.  Perfect curve ball for a strike 3 on the inside fooled Tsouras but wasn't called and walked instead of being the 3rd out.  Lehman then hit a 3 run bomb to take the lead in the 5th.  Ump got an earful from fans and coaches.  He was getting heat from both sides because of inconsistency but that one was not good.  Fooled him and Tsouras.

[Dr. Acula]

Yeah, the Muskie PBP guy mentioned several times that the umps inconsistencies were getting them some jawing from both dugouts and you could hear the groans from the fans on the audio.

Mount used the pen as I expected.  Mayer was going to be first out of the pen if they needed multiple IP because he can go 4+.  When he's throwing strikes he's been dominant and his ability to get strikeouts lets him wiggle out of some jams.  He just didn't have his best command on Sunday.  In close games it's been Mayer and Phillips first up. 

One thing I was curious about was with the DH pushed to Sunday and the OAC tournament starting Thursday AM how did that impact the pitching decisions.  For example, did they not use Lehman in relief because they needed to make sure they had him at 100% to potentially start game 1 of the tourney?  Breeden wasn't throwing his best game with 2 BB and 3 HBP through 3 IP, but it was only 1-0 and he was pulled at 49 pitches.  Is he available to start on 3 day's rest on Thursday?  At 49 pitches I would think he is an option (although Lehman dominated JCU in his start there).

Wilm and Ott were only able to get in 1 of the 2 games.  The Quakers put up 7 runs in the last 3 innings to win 9-6.  The two teams wrap up tied at the bottom at 3-14 in OAC play.  What would the odds have been on a preseason parlay of:

1. BW doesn't finish in the top 2
2. Marietta finishes with a losing record
3. Otterbein finishes last in the OAC
4. Capital splits with the top 2 teams

[J3FB2BB]

Good analysis all year by the Dr. and all the posters.
Looking forward to a great tourney.

[BobcatQB]

Yeah, the Muskie PBP guy mentioned several times that the umps inconsistencies were getting them some jawing from both dugouts and you could hear the groans from the fans on the audio.

Mount used the pen as I expected.  Mayer was going to be first out of the pen if they needed multiple IP because he can go 4+.  When he's throwing strikes he's been dominant and his ability to get strikeouts lets him wiggle out of some jams.  He just didn't have his best command on Sunday.  In close games it's been Mayer and Phillips first up. 

One thing I was curious about was with the DH pushed to Sunday and the OAC tournament starting Thursday AM how did that impact the pitching decisions.  For example, did they not use Lehman in relief because they needed to make sure they had him at 100% to potentially start game 1 of the tourney?  Breeden wasn't throwing his best game with 2 BB and 3 HBP through 3 IP, but it was only 1-0 and he was pulled at 49 pitches.  Is he available to start on 3 day's rest on Thursday?  At 49 pitches I would think he is an option (although Lehman dominated JCU in his start there).

Wilm and Ott were only able to get in 1 of the 2 games.  The Quakers put up 7 runs in the last 3 innings to win 9-6.  The two teams wrap up tied at the bottom at 3-14 in OAC play.  What would the odds have been on a preseason parlay of:

1. BW doesn't finish in the top 2
2. Marietta finishes with a losing record
3. Otterbein finishes last in the OAC
4. Capital splits with the top 2 teams

Breeden will be fine for Thurs.  He was visibly shaken after that HR to Melick and couldn't find the zone.  Kept building with each ball he threw.

Biggest surprise was BW's lack of consistency, Otterbein's falling off the table and the offensive production from Mount Union.

Should be a great tournament.  Hard to pick against BW because of that roster but they have been so inconsistent all year.  Mount has the offense and pitching to seal the deal.  Nobody is talking about ONU and that pitching could be the difference. JCU is the odd team out..not enough there to win it all.

[Dr. Acula]

I agree, I think it's going to be a great tournament.  Very competitively matched teams this year.  I would be very surprised if JCU won it, but none of the other three would surprise me at all.  Kostura is having a great season and is fresh off a no hitter so I'd say he and Dolcemaschio are the most dangerous 1-2 at the moment.  Plus BW has just played in so many big games I'd say they are the favorite.  Mount has 3 good SP and a good lineup so if they win their opener I like their chances to be there at the end with a shot to win it at home.

I'm obviously biased and will be focused on Mount tomorrow, but the BW/ONU game with Tootle on the mound for the Bears should be a great matchup just as a baseball fan.  That will be some high level D3 pitching squaring off.

[Dr. Acula]

Welp, that top of the 1st went about as poorly as possible for Mount.  3 walks and 2 errors lead to 4 runs.  The leadoff 2b was the only ball that left the infield.  This team won't panic so they just need to clean it up and play like they can.

[Dr. Acula]

Mount battled back to make it 4-3 at one point, but their bullpen allowed 4 runs over 3 IP to drop it 9-3.  Mount threw me a couple curve balls.  Hansen got the start (not overly surprising) and Mauer was the reliever (definitely surprised me).  Bottom line is they needed to hit better and get better pitching if you're going to spot JCU 4 out of the gate.  Once that happens you're going to have to play your best to win against a team like JCU. 

In game 2 Dolcemaschio has allowed 1 hit and needed only 27 pitches to get through 4 shutout IP so far.  BW is up 4-0 in the 5th.  Interestingly Stech went with Saylor and not Tootle on the mound.  If BW wins that means Mount will get Tootle tomorrow.  Yippee. 

[Dr. Acula]

After their 9-2 win this morning BW is sitting very pretty right now.  Back to back complete games from Dolcemaschio and Kostura have them heading into tomorrow confident and with a ton of fresh arms ready.

[BobcatQB]

BW has been playing it's best ball and looks like they may have finally figured it out.  Again, on paper, it was always BW's tournament.  Far and away the best roster in the OAC.

Mount and ONU get a chance to keep playing.  Both teams can definitely win some games in the Regionals.

[Dr. Acula]

Once Mount lost to JCU it was BW's to lose.  Don't get me wrong, BW was already the favorite, but with how they just handled JCU the previous weekend I was confident Kostura was going to get it done again and force someone to beat them twice.  The OAC was very competitive this year, but sweeping BW with your #4 and 5 SP is a tall order for anyone especially with how the Jackets are playing right now.

Mount's loss to ONU was disappointing.  Breeden was shutting them down leading 5-1 in the 8th and just ran out of gas.  They went to Phillips and he gave up 3 consecutive hits before Mayer came in.  Mayer didn't fair any better in what turned into a 7 run inning in the top of the 8th giving ONU the 8-5 lead.  Not much you can do.  You went to your best bullpen arms and it didn't work out.  I know firsthand the disappointment those guys felt, but Mount wouldn't have even been hosting the tourney without their contributions getting high leverage outs all season.

I like the NPI method for NCAA tournament.  It gives coaches more direct control of their chances.  Hopefully it leads to the OAC having an at-large almost every year.  Hopefully our 3 this year can make a little noise in regionals.

[BobcatQB]

Mount Union gets to host..wow.  Might be Hesse's greatest achievement. I guess having his involvement at the national level paid off.

[Dr. Acula]

I was not expecting that.  I assumed Rowan would host as the top seed, but I don't know how that's determined.  I assume you have to apply to host if you want to.  I saw other top seeds are not hosting either including Adrian hosting the regional with UWW in it.  I would think proximity wise Grove City would have been the shortest trips.  Looks like Rowan has a grass field.  Not sure if they take that into consideration either.

Denison, CWRU and Mount all hosting.  Lot of D3 action in Ohio this week.