MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

D3 Poster · February 01, 2026, 08:58:53 AM

Chicone was the 40 minute man yesterday vs Depauw. Just didn't have enough help as JCU lost the lead late.

Dr. Acula · February 05, 2026, 02:20:15 PM

JCU is 2 losses behind Denison with the season finale against each other. That home loss to last place OWU is looming large for the Streaks.

Also, seeing Wooster at 7-14 compelled me to pull up their archives. It's been almost 40 years since the Scots had a losing record in a full season (1986-87).

Greek Tragedy · February 05, 2026, 03:07:30 PM

Pretty impressive on Dennison's part to be doing this well without the injured Trevor Reed.

Gregory Sager · February 10, 2026, 12:05:24 PM

Quote from: Dr. Acula on February 05, 2026, 02:20:15 PMJCU is 2 losses behind Denison with the season finale against each other. That home loss to last place OWU is looming large for the Streaks.

Also, seeing Wooster at 7-14 compelled me to pull up their archives. It's been almost 40 years since the Scots had a losing record in a full season (1986-87).

It's not as though there has been a long, slow decline at Wooster, either. Even though the Scots haven't been the national powerhouse under Doug Cline that they were during the Steve Moore era, they have still been consistent winners; the Scots went 21-7 just last season.

They've plummeted over a cliff, it seems.

Dr. Acula · February 10, 2026, 06:18:20 PM

My thoughts exactly. Mount has played them every year for probably the last 6 or 7 years. And to your point, while they haven't been peak Wooster of yesteryear they have been pretty good. They've done well in the NCAC each year. Then this year happened. And even this year when I watched the game at Mount they were solid to my eye. They played Mount tough. Unless they've suffered some injuries I don't know how that team I saw is 7-14.

Dr. Acula · February 12, 2026, 12:30:10 PM

This is going to be a fun finish. JCU (10-4) overtakes the lead by a half game over Denison and Witt both 9-4. JCU plays both of them again. DPU is only a game back at 9-5 and should finish 11-5. I also included Wabash's schedule below because at 8-5 they could realistically also finish 11-5 putting them squarely in the hunt.

Denison: JCU, @ Woo, OWU
DPU: OWU, @ Woo
JCU: @ Denison, Witt
WAF: Kenyon, Witt, @ Oberlin
Witt: Oberlin, @ Wabash, @ JCU

If Denison beats JCU Saturday they clearly have the inside track. But if the best record ends up 11-5 it will probably be a tie breaker scenario.

Dr. Acula · February 15, 2026, 12:38:33 PM

I'm looking at the box score trying to figure out how Denison beat JCU by 17. Shot a little better, but not good by any stretch. Committed more TO. FT similar. Then I found it. 22 offensive rebounds! They outrebounded the Streaks 59-30. That's impressive.

Greek Tragedy · February 26, 2026, 09:26:24 AM

JCU is 23rd in the At-large rankings. Not sure a semi-final win and a final loss will get them in. Looks like a one-bid league.

Greek Tragedy · February 28, 2026, 08:40:18 AM

At the 7:39 update, JCU moves up to At-large 20. A loss probably drops them back out. Denison is nowhere near consideration.

ziggy · February 28, 2026, 10:22:59 AM

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 28, 2026, 08:40:18 AMAt the 7:39 update, JCU moves up to At-large 20. A loss probably drops them back out. Denison is nowhere near consideration.

I was just digging into the scenario here by making use of the minimum NPI values that showed up in our simulations this morning for where it looks like the cut line will be.

Elmhurst: 60.780
VWU: 60.630
JCU: 60.589
UWO: 60.398
TCNJ: 60.309

So with a loss, John Carroll probably stays behind Elmhurst if they lose to IWU, falls behind Virginia Wesleyan, stays ahead of Oshkosh, and stays ahead of TCNJ if they lose to Montclair St.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · February 28, 2026, 12:42:07 PM

Quote from: ziggy on February 28, 2026, 10:22:59 AM
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 28, 2026, 08:40:18 AMAt the 7:39 update, JCU moves up to At-large 20. A loss probably drops them back out. Denison is nowhere near consideration.

I was just digging into the scenario here by making use of the minimum NPI values that showed up in our simulations this morning for where it looks like the cut line will be.

Elmhurst: 60.780
VWU: 60.630
JCU: 60.589
UWO: 60.398
TCNJ: 60.309

So with a loss, John Carroll probably stays behind Elmhurst if they lose to IWU, falls behind Virginia Wesleyan, stays ahead of Oshkosh, and stays ahead of TCNJ if they lose to Montclair St.

This assume the worst case scenario, right? So, like, TCNJ could lose and Wesleyan (who they beat) could win two games this weekend and jack up their NPI?

ziggy · February 28, 2026, 01:04:19 PM

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on February 28, 2026, 12:42:07 PM
Quote from: ziggy on February 28, 2026, 10:22:59 AM
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 28, 2026, 08:40:18 AMAt the 7:39 update, JCU moves up to At-large 20. A loss probably drops them back out. Denison is nowhere near consideration.

I was just digging into the scenario here by making use of the minimum NPI values that showed up in our simulations this morning for where it looks like the cut line will be.

Elmhurst: 60.780
VWU: 60.630
JCU: 60.589
UWO: 60.398
TCNJ: 60.309

So with a loss, John Carroll probably stays behind Elmhurst if they lose to IWU, falls behind Virginia Wesleyan, stays ahead of Oshkosh, and stays ahead of TCNJ if they lose to Montclair St.

This assume the worst case scenario, right? So, like, TCNJ could lose and Wesleyan (who they beat) could win two games this weekend and jack up their NPI?

Yes, worst case, as seen in that run of simulations, for all mentioned. There are certainly ways things could break more favorably than that for everyone, but it's a convenient proxy for sizing up teams who are still playing with teams who are done.

Teams that are done will have tighter ranges to their projected final NPI whereas teams that are still playing will have higher average and max values because they could win their next game, but the min NPI necessitates a loss in their next game.