At-large bids (formerly Pool C)

[Greek Tragedy]

Since Pool A is AQ, Pool C is At Large... what would we call Pool B were it to ever be needed again?

It doesn't exist anymore.  With conference membership now a requirement to get into D3, we're unlikely to ever have a critical mass calling for it - if a new conference forms, their members will just be in the at-large pool with everyone else until their two years are up.

What about Maranatha Baptist?

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Since Pool A is AQ, Pool C is At Large... what would we call Pool B were it to ever be needed again?

It doesn't exist anymore.  With conference membership now a requirement to get into D3, we're unlikely to ever have a critical mass calling for it - if a new conference forms, their members will just be in the at-large pool with everyone else until their two years are up.

What about Maranatha Baptist?

It's unlikely, but not impossible. If the ASC wasn't getting back to the minimum next year they'd have lost their AQ and if a new conference formed elsewhere you would end up with about a dozen teams in Pool B which was enough for a bid in the past.

[ziggy]

Since Pool A is AQ, Pool C is At Large... what would we call Pool B were it to ever be needed again?

It doesn't exist anymore.  With conference membership now a requirement to get into D3, we're unlikely to ever have a critical mass calling for it - if a new conference forms, their members will just be in the at-large pool with everyone else until their two years are up.

What about Maranatha Baptist?

It's unlikely, but not impossible. If the ASC wasn't getting back to the minimum next year they'd have lost their AQ and if a new conference formed elsewhere you would end up with about a dozen teams in Pool B which was enough for a bid in the past.

Pool B was formally eliminated and that's why the pool nomenclature has changed. It's not just a matter of not having enough teams with that status to trigger a bid.

[Gregory Sager]

Should this board be renamed "At-Large (formerly Pool C)"?

Interesting ...

That is rather "Musk-ian".   

I'm not sure I'd check on this board much if it was renamed "X".

[D3BBALL]

Should this board be renamed "At-Large (formerly Pool C)"?

Interesting ...

That is rather "Musk-ian".   

I'm not sure I'd check on this board much if it was renamed "X".

😂😂😂😂😂

[Greek Tragedy]

Bid thieves if they don't win their conference tournament (1 bid conferences):

SCAC - St. Thomas
CNE - Endicott
NJAC - Montclair St
MIAC - Gustavus Adolphus
MACC - Hood
SAA - Trinity TX

Sweating, needs help, gotta win:

NESCAC - Amherst (16): eliminated in 1st rd

ODAC - VWU (19), Roanoke (22)

SCAC - Concordia TX (27)

NJAC - TCNJ (26)

CCIW - Carthage (18), Elmhurst (21)

WIAC - Oshkosh (17)

NCAC - JCU (25)

LAND - Scranton (20), Drew (23)

Multiple bid leagues

UAA - Emory, Chicago, Wash U, NYU

NESCAC - Trinity CT, Tufts, Wesleyan, Bates

C2C - Mary Washington, CNU

OAC - Mount Union, Otterbein

WIAC - Whitewater, Stevens Point, La Crosse, Platteville

SCIAC - Redlands, CMS

CC - Franklin & Marshall, JHU

[ziggy]

Not much indication Amherst has a lot to sweat about.

Love the way the ODAC tournament is setting up. Virginia Wesleyan and Roanoke need to avoid a quarterfinals upset to keep their NCAA tournament hopes alive and if both do, that sets up a head-to-head semifinal that right now looks like essentially a play-in game for their at-large chances.

A potential Carthage-Elmhurst semifinal doesn't look quite as strong as an at-large play-in game but the loser would be in trouble.

In the WIAC, an Oshkosh win in the quarters looks like it would make the league a lock to get five teams in. It looks dicey for the Titans if they lose to Platteville but a win would be enough to turn them into a near lock.

Drew and Scranton really need to at least make the Landmark final. Scranton looks better than Drew for at-large position with a championship game loss.

Otterbein starts looking bubbly if they suffer a loss in the OAC semis.

You can keep up with the latest projections, including how the odds stack up depending on where a conference tournament loss happens, here: https://d3datacast.com/npi/mbb-projections/

Not a conference tournament but the bubble will be watching saturday's Brandeis game at NYU with interest. Team on the bubble will be rooting heavily for the Violets as the Judges would muddy the bubble picture with a win.

[Greek Tragedy]

Interesting you mentioned Brandeis, who sits at At-large 32 today. They really have the potential to jump 11 teams with a win vs NYU?

[ziggy]

Interesting you mentioned Brandeis, who sits at At-large 32 today. They really have the potential to jump 11 teams with a win vs NYU?

A win at NYU is a far better final game on the resume than will be the case (loss in conference tournament) for anyone else who finds themselves on the bubble.

Beating NYU currently carries a win value of a little over 78 compared to a loss value against Montclair State, for the sake of comparison, of just under 50.

[BaboNation]

Not much indication Amherst has a lot to sweat about.

Love the way the ODAC tournament is setting up. Virginia Wesleyan and Roanoke need to avoid a quarterfinals upset to keep their NCAA tournament hopes alive and if both do, that sets up a head-to-head semifinal that right now looks like essentially a play-in game for their at-large chances.

A potential Carthage-Elmhurst semifinal doesn't look quite as strong as an at-large play-in game but the loser would be in trouble.

In the WIAC, an Oshkosh win in the quarters looks like it would make the league a lock to get five teams in. It looks dicey for the Titans if they lose to Platteville but a win would be enough to turn them into a near lock.

Drew and Scranton really need to at least make the Landmark final. Scranton looks better than Drew for at-large position with a championship game loss.

Otterbein starts looking bubbly if they suffer a loss in the OAC semis.

You can keep up with the latest projections, including how the odds stack up depending on where a conference tournament loss happens, here: https://d3datacast.com/npi/mbb-projections/

Not a conference tournament but the bubble will be watching saturday's Brandeis game at NYU with interest. Team on the bubble will be rooting heavily for the Violets as the Judges would muddy the bubble picture with a win.

The 1:37pm Projections update I just looked at has eliminated Babson completely.  From 99.8% safe to the golf course in one day.

Love your work, but I suspect a glitch.

[ziggy]

The 1:37pm Projections update I just looked at has eliminated Babson completely.  From 99.8% safe to the golf course in one day.

Love your work, but I suspect a glitch.

No, we just need to expand the viewable range on the Bubble Watch as they shift over at 100%. It shows up if you look down below to the full projections or on our NEWMAC page.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Interesting you mentioned Brandeis, who sits at At-large 32 today. They really have the potential to jump 11 teams with a win vs NYU?

A win at NYU is a far better final game on the resume than will be the case (loss in conference tournament) for anyone else who finds themselves on the bubble.

Beating NYU currently carries a win value of a little over 78 compared to a loss value against Montclair State, for the sake of comparison, of just under 50.

Not much indication Amherst has a lot to sweat about.

Love the way the ODAC tournament is setting up. Virginia Wesleyan and Roanoke need to avoid a quarterfinals upset to keep their NCAA tournament hopes alive and if both do, that sets up a head-to-head semifinal that right now looks like essentially a play-in game for their at-large chances.

A potential Carthage-Elmhurst semifinal doesn't look quite as strong as an at-large play-in game but the loser would be in trouble.

In the WIAC, an Oshkosh win in the quarters looks like it would make the league a lock to get five teams in. It looks dicey for the Titans if they lose to Platteville but a win would be enough to turn them into a near lock.

Drew and Scranton really need to at least make the Landmark final. Scranton looks better than Drew for at-large position with a championship game loss.

Otterbein starts looking bubbly if they suffer a loss in the OAC semis.

You can keep up with the latest projections, including how the odds stack up depending on where a conference tournament loss happens, here: https://d3datacast.com/npi/mbb-projections/

Not a conference tournament but the bubble will be watching saturday's Brandeis game at NYU with interest. Team on the bubble will be rooting heavily for the Violets as the Judges would muddy the bubble picture with a win.

The 1:37pm Projections update I just looked at has eliminated Babson completely.  From 99.8% safe to the golf course in one day.

Love your work, but I suspect a glitch.

I noticed a couple weeks ago that VTSU-Johnson disappeared and Penn St-Brandywine was added. Not a huge deal for Johnson since they went winless and aren't a factor, but Brandywine isn't eligible.
It also says Brandywine has a 3.3% chance of being a top 16 team and 2.8% to be a top 8 team. That seems wrong.

[KnightSlappy]

The 1:37pm Projections update I just looked at has eliminated Babson completely.  From 99.8% safe to the golf course in one day.

Love your work, but I suspect a glitch.

No, we just need to expand the viewable range on the Bubble Watch as they shift over at 100%. It shows up if you look down below to the full projections or on our NEWMAC page.

I just added a 27th line. We need some teams to start actually clinching the AQs! 

I noticed a couple weeks ago that VTSU-Johnson disappeared and Penn St-Brandywine was added. Not a huge deal for Johnson since they went winless and aren't a factor, but Brandywine isn't eligible.
It also says Brandywine has a 3.3% chance of being a top 16 team and 2.8% to be a top 8 team. That seems wrong.

That is very wrong! I will work on eliminating that possibility if they win tonight.

[KnightSlappy]

Interesting you mentioned Brandeis, who sits at At-large 32 today. They really have the potential to jump 11 teams with a win vs NYU?

A win at NYU is a far better final game on the resume than will be the case (loss in conference tournament) for anyone else who finds themselves on the bubble.

Beating NYU currently carries a win value of a little over 78 compared to a loss value against Montclair State, for the sake of comparison, of just under 50.

I think this is key: mostly everyone needs a loss here on out to be eligible for an at-large. Brandeis doesn't. So while most at-large candidates (so hard not to type Pool C) are hoping to tread water in NPI by going 2-1 or 1-1, Brandeis (and other UAAs and AQ winners) have opportunity to gain ground.

[BaboNation]

The 1:37pm Projections update I just looked at has eliminated Babson completely.  From 99.8% safe to the golf course in one day.

Love your work, but I suspect a glitch.

No, we just need to expand the viewable range on the Bubble Watch as they shift over at 100%. It shows up if you look down below to the full projections or on our NEWMAC page.

Thanks.  See it now.  Great work.  With some math background myself I marvel at putting something like this together.