At-large bids (formerly Pool C)

[D3BBALL]

So far only 1 bid thief?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

So far only 1 bid thief?

So far.

[Greek Tragedy]

So far only 1 bid thief?

It's early. LOL

[Greek Tragedy]

Bid thief potential

MACC - York Pa beats Hood
MIAC - St. John's beats Gustavus Adolphus
NJAC - TCNJ beats Montclair St
OAC - Heidelberg beats Otterbein

[ziggy]

We talked about all the potential bid thief conferences, as well as other dynamics to keep an eye on this weekend, in our video update last night: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gq_wWUwd2C0

The last few days I have also found a lot of value in taking a look at the min, avg, max projected NPI value in our simulations for teams that are done playing. With no more games to play this shows how much their final NPI could vary based solely on the results around the country. In that video we talk about that as it relates to Amherst and UW-Oshkosh.

Our projections page also shows the min, avg, max NPI values for the at-large cut line as well as the min, avg, max bid thief scenarios that played out within the 1,000 simulations.

[Greek Tragedy]

Bubble alert. Endicott in a tight one.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Potential Poppers

Saturday
MACC: York (PA) @ Hood
MIAC: St Johns @ Gustavus Adolphus
NJAC: TCNJ @ Montclair St
OAC: Heidelberg @ Otterbein
SCAC: Centenary @ St Thomas (semifinal)

Sunday
CC: Gettysburg vs Johns Hopkins
CNE: W New England @ Endicott
NEWMAC: Wheaton (MA) @ Babson
SCIAC: Chapman @ Redlands

[Greek Tragedy]

Pop!

TCNJ upsets Montclair St.

[KnightSlappy]

So far TCNJ has only stolen the at-large bid they themselves could have been in line for. Definitely a gray area if we should consider them a bid thief or not (they're currently between at-large #15 and #16 in NPI).

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Bubble Alert
Heidelberg up 7 on Otterbein with under 5 minutes to go
Rhodes up 18 on Trinity (TX) with under 8 minutes to go

Edit:
*POP* *POP*
Heidelberg holds on to win 82-75
Rhodes hangs on for dear life to survive 79-76.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

More bubble watching
Elmhurst up 2 on Illinois Wesleyan with just over 3 minutes left
St Johns down 5 with four minutes left after being up most of the 2nd half

Edit:
Gustavus Adolphus protects the bubble and beats St Johns
Elmhurst/Illinois Wesleyan headed to OT.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Elmhurst will remain on the bubble after losing in OT.
Roanoke gets off the bubble with a 7-0 run in the final 40 seconds to beat Randolph-Macon.

[Greek Tragedy]

Conference Finals on Sunday

CC: JHU (at-large 17) vs Gettysburg (bid thief)
CNE: Endicott (lock) vs W NE (bid thief)
NEWMAC: Babson (lock) vs Wheaton MA (bid thief)
SCIAC: Redlands (lock) vs Chapman (bid thief)
SCAC: St Thomas (lock) vs Concordia TX (bid thief)

No impact on bids

GNAC: St Joseph CT vs St Joseph's ME
LL: Vassar vs RPI
LEC: Keene St vs W Conn
MASCAC: Worcester St vs Westfield St
SKY: Farmingdale St v Yeshiva
NESCAC: Trinity CT v Welseyan

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

According to d3datacast as of now

Last Five In
21 Otterbein
20 Amherst
19 WPI
18 UW-Platteville
17 Johns Hopkins (vs Gettysburg)

First Four Out
22 Elmhurst
23 Farmingdale St (vs Yeshiva)
24 Concordia (TX) (vs St THomas)
25 Virginia Wesleyan


The Johns Hopkins/Gettysburg game is like a reverse bubble game. If Hopkins wins they open up a bubble slot because Gettysburg is already being counted as the AQ so they would no longer be a bid thief.

[deiscanton]

The DIII Men's Basketball Committee has released the official NPI summary report through games played as of Saturday, February 28, 2026.  It is available at:

http://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/48970

According to NCAA's NPI Summary Report as of this morning-- the D3Datacast positions of the Last Five in are correct, but there is a slight discrepancy in the order of the First Four out--

The NCAA NPI Summary Report has this order as the order of the First Four out this morning--

22.)  Elmhurst (#39 in NPI)-- official NPI value of 60.928
23.)  Farmingdale State (#40 in NPI)-- official NPI value of 60.891
24.)  Virginia Wesleyan (#41 in NPI)-- official NPI value of 60.781
25.)  Concordia (TX) (#42 in NPI)-- official NPI value of 60.779