MBB: NESCAC

[Old Guy]

 I see Amherst and Tufts as the favorites on paper, followed very closely by the Midd/Williams/Trinity/Colby/Bowdoin group, any of whom has a legitimate chance at the title.  Even Bates or Wesleyan could make a surprising run, although with no seniors of note Wesleyan is probably a year away from making more noise.  Only Conn and Hamilton seem to be in full-on rebuilding mode.
[/quote]

Look at that. Wide open. Seven teams with a "legitimate chance at a title." Wild.

[P'bearfan]

I like the way Middlebury is escaping notice in this preseason pondering. We haven't sneaked up on anyone for a while. The Panthers are very talented, a tall, good-shooting club, with a young and deep backcourt which gained valuable experience last year (Jake Brown and Bryan Jones, frosh Jack Daly). Here's hoping Matt St. Armour comes back strong after major knee surgery.

Old Guy - if St Amour hadn't hurt his knee Middlebury would be at the top of my list this year.  They've lost less than any other team via graduation and transfers.   Certainly hope he is able to play both for his sake and b/c it will make the conference more competitive.

Less than Bowdoin and Tufts? Joey alone is a pretty big loss. Roberts and Jensen were also solid contributors. I personally think that trio trumps Mathias/Madlinger/White for Bowdoin and certainly is a bigger loss than just Oliver Cohen for Tufts.

Then there's Trinity, which didn't graduate anyone.

Lefrak - fair criticism of my post.  It would have been more accurate to say that in my view Midd has lost less than any of the top 4 teams from last season.  As you point out, many other teams have lost less in terms of overall production (e.g. Trinity, Colby, Wes, Bates).  And I have noted this in my team overviews.   However, as one of my earlier posts pointed out, none of these teams demonstrated right mix of offense and defense to win the conference even if they had the pieces (e.g. too much reliance on 2 point scoring - even if they had good 3 point shooters). 

Midd isn't perfect but last year it had offensive scoring mix that was proven to work and they are bringing back enough people to keep that going.  Kizel is a big loss for them but they had two other guards (Brown and St Amour) who saw significant playing time.  So while they'll be young in the backcourt and these two will need to step up you can make the argument that this isn't an insurmountable hurdle for them.  Contrast that with Amherst where Toomey played 34.6 min / game and no other PG saw meaningful action. 

Now with St Amour's injury that thesis is a lot shakier.  Relying on just 1 sophomore guard is a much different situation - even though Brown did see lots of playing time last season. 

[P'bearfan]

With the start of a new school year I wanted to look at the statistical impact that the graduating seniors and transfers will have on each NESCAC team.  This should give a view into each team's strengths and challenges for the coming season.


Tufts

Summary
Next season may hinge on the return of Tom Palleschi – if he's healthy and can play unrestricted minutes Tufts may have a legitimate shot at the conference title.  However, Tufts may also need to make a shift in their scoring mix and they will definitely need fill a void at PG.

Departing players
Kwame Firempong
Tommy Folliard
Oliver Cohen
Andrew Dowton

Offense
The departing players accounted for 45% of total minutes played but only 36% of the total points scored so I don't expect any drop off in total scoring next season (75.3 ppg – 6th best in the conference).  They accounted for 31% of 2pt FGs, 43% of 3pt FGs and 36% of free throws. 

Last season the Jumbos relied heavily on scoring from inside the arc (51.6% of ppg vs 46.2% for the top 3 teams).   However, Tufts returns 4 players who shot 36-45% from long range last year so they have the tools to shift their offensive attack.  The challenge may be a tendency to feed the ball to Palleschi  and Sabety which won't help their scoring mix.

Two seasons ago Palleschi averaged 10.0 ppg and literally all of his points came from inside the 3 point line (same for Sabety this past season).  The combination of Palleschi and Sabety could make Tufts difficult to stop in the low post.  However, an over-reliance on these two may not give them the scoring punch they need.   Also two seasons ago Palleschi only shot 59.2% from the foul line so he's not likely to help them increase their scoring from the charity strip – a key success factor for last year's conference leaders.


Rebounding
Last season Tufts averaged 37.1 rpg (6th in the conference) and the departing players only accounted for 36% of the rebounds.  Again, if Palleschi returns and can contribute significantly I would expect Tufts to be one of the top 3 or 4 rebounding teams in the conference.  Palleschi averaged 6.0 rpg two seasons ago and accounted for 14% and 17% of Tufts offensive and defensive rebounds respectively.

Ball control
The departing group accounted for 64% of the Jumbo's total assists with Oliver Cohen leading the way (4.92 apg).  Without this group Tuft's assist to turnover ratio would have dropped from 1.1 to 0.65 which is worrisome.  Last year the freshman Tarik Smith was second on the team in assists with 59 for the season while averaging 18 minutes per game (A/TO: 1.59).  It looks like he'll need to step into the starting PG role but that's a lot of responsibility for a sophomore.

[P'bearfan]

As we start a new school year, I wanted to look at the statistical impact that the graduating seniors and transfers will have on each NESCAC team.  This should give a view into each team's strengths and challenges for the coming season.

Hamilton

Summary
Matt Hart's transfer leaves the Continentals with major gaps that will be difficult to fill next season.  This season is likely to be the start of a long rebuilding process in Cinton, NY.

Departing players
Matt Hart
Greg Newton
Matt Dean

Offense
These three players combined for just 30.9% of Hamilton's total minutes but delivered 47% of the points scored.  That's an incredible difference that indicates just how much Hamilton relied on Hart.  This group – again mainly Hart – was responsible for 44% of the 2pt FGs; 52% of the 3 pt FGs and 47% of the free throws.  It's not obvious who will pick up this slack and Hamilton which only averaged 75.5 ppg last season will likely struggle offensively this season.

Rebounding
The departing players only accounted for 26% of the rebounding so the good news is that Hamilton shouldn't see a big drop off next season.  The bad news is that Hamilton only averaged 34.6 rpg last year (11th in the conference).

Ball control
The departing players – this time lead by Newton – accounted for 57% of Hamilton's assists last year.  Without them their assist to turnover ratio would have fallen from a strong 1.2 to 0.9.  Hamilton may have another PG ready to step up.  However, without a dependable scoring threat defenses may simply key on the new PG next season.

[amh63]

P'Bear....keep those posts coming! Great job.  +K

[D3HoopJunkie]

+K Indeed P'Bear...... I must say that I am primarily a GNAC poster but your season previews have been outstanding! I find myself shooting over here to the NESCAC thread every time I see that you have submitted a post. Great job and good luck to all NESCAC programs this year. I think the parity across the league this year in the NESCAC is as good as it has been in a very long time which in turn makes for some outstanding basketball games!

[P'bearfan]

https://www.colby.edu/athletics/sport/mens-basketball/?view=roster

Colby has posted their roster for this season.  They'll start the season with 16 players including 3 FY:

Pat Dickert (G)
Tony Karalekas (G)
Sam Joaquin (F)

It looks as if one player from last year's squad decided not to return. Peter Marchetti played in 5 games last season and averaged 2.8 min / game.  However, the Mules have picked up another guard in sophomore Joe Connelly who appears to have transferred from Wesleyan.  Last season Connelly appeared in 15 games and averaged 0.7 ppg and had A/TO = 1.0

Does anyone know if players who transfer between D3 schools need to sit out a year?

[quicksilver]

. . . It looks as if one player from last year's squad decided not to return. Peter Marchetti played in 5 games last season and averaged 2.8 min / game.  However, the Mules have picked up another guard in sophomore Joe Connelly who appears to have transferred from Wesleyan.  Last season Connelly appeared in 15 games and averaged 0.7 ppg and had A/TO = 1.0

Does anyone know if players who transfer between D3 schools need to sit out a year?

There is no requirement to sit out any time for D3-to-D3 transfers unless the player was not in good standing at the school out of which he transferred . . .

[P'bearfan]

As we start a new school year, I wanted to look at the statistical impact that the graduating seniors and transfers will have on each NESCAC team.  This should give a view into each team's strengths and challenges for the coming season.

Trinity

Summary
Trinity returns all of its players from last year's squad and some may consider them as a sleeper ready to contend for the conference title.  Their tough, physical style of play will likely create match-up problems for some teams but their weak shooting and over-reliance on inside scoring will likely limit how far they can go.

Departing players
None

Offense
Last year's squad only scored 66 ppg with 54% of their points coming from 2pt FGs (second highest percentage in the conference) and only 24% from behind the arc (2nd lowest in the conference).  This reliance on interior scoring is likely to continue unless Trinity has recruited some outside shooters.  Even with its reliance on mid-range and low post scoring, Trinity was not a great shooting team (i.e. 42.6% for 2 pt FGs).  If they don't reach the upper levels of the conference this season, their weak shooting may be the thing that holds them back.

Rebounding
Trinity led the conference in rebounding with 43.2 rpg.  There's no reason to suspect this will change this season.

Ball handling / steals / blocks
Last season Trinity's ball handling was average with an assist to turnover ratio of just 0.9.  Trinity's strong rebounding helps give them a number of second chance shots and partially off-sets their relatively weak shooting.  However, improving their assist to turnover ratio will help create more opportunities for their shooters – which they'll need to be more competitive this season.

[P'bearfan]

As we start a new school year, I wanted to look at the statistical impact that the graduating seniors and transfers will have on each NESCAC team.  This should give a view into each team's strengths and challenges for the coming season.

Bowdoin

Overview:
Visions of a healthy Bryan Hurley combining with John Swords down low should worry many NESCAC opponents.  However, Bowdoin will have to replace almost all of its outside scoring and find a way to continue its stingy defense if it wants to make a run at the conference title.

Departing Players
Matt Mathias
Andrew Madlinger
Grant White


Offense
The departing players accounted for 46% of the minutes played and just 40% of the scoring so at first glance things look bright for this upcoming season.  Bowdoin returns John Swords, arguably the best returning big man in the conference.  Swords averaged just below a double double last season and shot 68% from the field.  As long as Swords remains healthy everyone expects more of the same this season.  However, if we dig a little deeper the outlook becomes a bit dimmer. 

Bowdoin only scored 70.5 ppg (9th in the conference) and relied more on 2 pt FG's (53% of scoring) than any of the top 3 teams (46-48%).  This approached worked because it was combined with efficient long range shooting and an incredibly stingy defense (58.2 ppg allowed – best in the conference).

Unfortunately, Madlinger, Mathias, and White accounted for 72% of Bowdoin's 3 pt FGs and they were very efficient, shooting 39 - 45% from behind the arc. Replacing the 3 point scoring will need to be a priority this season along with maintaining a stout defense.

Some combination of Hausman, Pieri, Palecki and Fuller will need to pick up the bulk of the outside shooting load this year.  If that happens, Hurley will be able to focus on what he does best – distributing the ball and slashing through defenders. 

Pieri shot 36% from behind the arc so he will likely be the first option.  Hausman only shot 31% from long range but he hit several big time, high pressure shots.  Both Palecki and Fuller are likely to be counted on to score more this year with expanded playing time.  Both players are strong in the low post but Bowdoin has lost so much scoring from behind the arc that they really need all four players to develop into credible outside scoring threats.   

Rebounding
Last year Bowdoin averaged 38.8 rpg which was 4th best in the conference.  The departing players only accounted for 28% of the total rebounds. With Swords returning and Palecki and Fuller both likely to see more playing time Bowdoin should do very well on the glass this year.

Ball control / steals
The departing players accounted for 55% of the P'bears total assists and 53% of the steals.  However, if Hurley returns to full strength Bowdoin should be in good shape as he averaged more than 8 assists per game as a sophomore.   The defense will need to continue to pressure the ball and generate steals that they can convert into easy baskets.  It's difficult to predict how the defense will perform this year but certainly this is the other dimension of the game where the loss Mathias, Madlinger and especially White will be most keenly felt.

Additions
Bowdoin has four incoming FYs: Liam Farley (6'-5" G/F); Sam Jablonski (6'-4" G/F); Charlie DiPasquale (6'-2" SG) and Blake Gordon (6'-2" CG). 

[P'bearfan]

As we start a new school year, I wanted to look at the statistical impact that the graduating seniors and transfers will have on each NESCAC team.  This should give a view into each team's strengths and challenges for the coming season.

Middlebury

Summary:
Statistically speaking Middlebury has to replace less than any of the top 4 teams from last year.   If wasn't for the injury to Matt St. Amour last spring, the Panthers might be favored to win the conference.  Now it looks like Jake Brown will have to replace Joey Kizel's floor leadership by himself.  Of course, if Matt St. Amour recovers from his knee surgery and is able to contribute significantly later in the season the Panthers could be a very dangerous team.

Departing players
Joey Kizel
James Jensen
Jack Roberts
Nate Bullock
Alberto Nasciento
Luis Alvarez

Offense
The departing players accounted for only 43% of the total minutes played and just 41% of the total points scored so Middlebury should be in good shape offensively next season.

This group only accounted for 19% of the 2 pt FGs, 32% of the 3 pt FGs but surprisingly 55% of the free throws.  This season Middlebury will have to rely on Sinnickson, Merryman, and Brown to lead the way offensively.  If St. Amour is out for most of the season the Panthers will have to find a way to replace another 9 ppg including his excellent free throw shooting.

Rebounding
Again, Middlebury should be in good shape on the glass as the departing players only accounted for 40% of the total rebounds.

Ball control / steals / blocks
This is where the loss of Joey Kizel and Jack Roberts in particular will create some challenges for Middlebury.  The departing players accounted for 55% of the assists and 50% of the steals (led mainly by Kizel)   Without this group, Middlebury's assist to turnover ratio would have declined from 1.15 to 0.95 – not a big drop off but noticeable.  Also the departing players – led by Roberts – generated 65% of the team's blocks.    Middlebury's point differential per game last season was only +6 so the loss of so many blocks and a relative increase in turnovers may make it more difficult to win tight games.

[colby96]

Colby AD "resigned", effective end of calendar year. Will be good news for stagnant sporta program.

[John Gleich]

. . . It looks as if one player from last year's squad decided not to return. Peter Marchetti played in 5 games last season and averaged 2.8 min / game.  However, the Mules have picked up another guard in sophomore Joe Connelly who appears to have transferred from Wesleyan.  Last season Connelly appeared in 15 games and averaged 0.7 ppg and had A/TO = 1.0

Does anyone know if players who transfer between D3 schools need to sit out a year?

There is no requirement to sit out any time for D3-to-D3 transfers unless the player was not in good standing at the school out of which he transferred . . .

There's no blanket D-III requirement for a student in good standing who transfers from one institution to another.... but there are some conferences who require a transfer to sit out if they transferred from a different school within the conference.

[Bucket]

As we start a new school year, I wanted to look at the statistical impact that the graduating seniors and transfers will have on each NESCAC team.  This should give a view into each team's strengths and challenges for the coming season.

Middlebury

Summary:
Statistically speaking Middlebury has to replace less than any of the top 4 teams from last year.   If wasn't for the injury to Matt St. Amour last spring, the Panthers might be favored to win the conference.  Now it looks like Jake Brown will have to replace Joey Kizel's floor leadership by himself.  Of course, if Matt St. Amour recovers from his knee surgery and is able to contribute significantly later in the season the Panthers could be a very dangerous team.

Departing players
Joey Kizel
James Jensen
Jack Roberts
Nate Bullock
Alberto Nasciento
Luis Alvarez

Offense
The departing players accounted for only 43% of the total minutes played and just 41% of the total points scored so Middlebury should be in good shape offensively next season.

This group only accounted for 19% of the 2 pt FGs, 32% of the 3 pt FGs but surprisingly 55% of the free throws.  This season Middlebury will have to rely on Sinnickson, Merryman, and Brown to lead the way offensively.  If St. Amour is out for most of the season the Panthers will have to find a way to replace another 9 ppg including his excellent free throw shooting.

Rebounding
Again, Middlebury should be in good shape on the glass as the departing players only accounted for 40% of the total rebounds.

Ball control / steals / blocks
This is where the loss of Joey Kizel and Jack Roberts in particular will create some challenges for Middlebury.  The departing players accounted for 55% of the assists and 50% of the steals (led mainly by Kizel)   Without this group, Middlebury's assist to turnover ratio would have declined from 1.15 to 0.95 – not a big drop off but noticeable.  Also the departing players – led by Roberts – generated 65% of the team's blocks.    Middlebury's point differential per game last season was only +6 so the loss of so many blocks and a relative increase in turnovers may make it more difficult to win tight games.

Nice write-up.

Just one note: Aside from the Tufts game last year (or the season opener against Alvernia), you'd have no real reason to know this, but I expect Matt Daly to be a revelation (especially on the offensive end of the floor) to many NESCAC watchers this year. (With the obvious proviso that he's healthy this year.)

[grabtherim]

Nice write-up.

Just one note: Aside from the Tufts game last year (or the season opener against Alvernia), you'd have no real reason to know this, but I expect Matt Daly to be a revelation (especially on the offensive end of the floor) to many NESCAC watchers this year. (With the obvious proviso that he's healthy this year.)


Assuming he's healthy, it's time for Daly to show the rest of the league what Midd fans have seen in flashes since his arrival on campus.  No doubt that physically he has the tools and the game, but the question that remains to be answered once again assuming he is healthy, is will he step up and compete hard on both ends with confidence.  If he does, Old Guy and Midd fans will have a good one.  The kid can play.