MBB: NESCAC

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I missed Oshkosh, whoops.  Ryan, I have some memory that there was a change in which teams had to have a .667 winning percentage to be eligible for the tourney (meaning that Oshkosh is out with another loss, for example).  Is that right?  I can't recall.

It was never a rule, but there had not been a Pool C selection with a lower winning percentage until Oshkosh just a couple years ago.  That was the impetus for cracking down on the misuse of WP/SOS ratios.  Based on the first week's rankings, I think any team below a .700 is probably in dire straights.  Remember, though, the conference tourney counts as well, so teams can pick up a little with a 2-1 record.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Week 2's Regional Rankings are out: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2020/02/men-regional-rankings-second

[Cards Fan]

Middlebury - number 1 in New England, doesn't have a home game in the conference playoffs. Wow.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Middlebury - number 1 in New England, doesn't have a home game in the conference playoffs. Wow.

The quirks of not playing a traditional double-round-robin ... or even a slight variation (i.e. ODAC).

[maineman]

If the season were to end today, and thankfully it doesn't, then Tufts would get a Pool C before Colby if they both weren't a Pool A selection.  Six losses vs two losses, that is hard to believe.

[Colby Hoops]

If the season were to end today, and thankfully it doesn't, then Tufts would get a Pool C before Colby if they both weren't a Pool A selection.  Six losses vs two losses, that is hard to believe.

I actually think these rankings are good for Colby, despite being passed by WPI and staying behind Tufts. Both New England College and Ramapo jumped into the regional rankings, which would give Colby two extra wins against regionally ranked opponents (moving from 1-2 to 3-2). The NCAA (somewhat strangely) uses the previous week's rankings to calculate wins verse regionally ranked opponents, so this won't be reflected until the next regional rankings. Colby needs to hope Ramapo and NEC finish the season well.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

If the season were to end today, and thankfully it doesn't, then Tufts would get a Pool C before Colby if they both weren't a Pool A selection.  Six losses vs two losses, that is hard to believe.

I actually think these rankings are good for Colby, despite being passed by WPI and staying behind Tufts. Both New England College and Ramapo jumped into the regional rankings, which would give Colby two extra wins against regionally ranked opponents (moving from 1-2 to 3-2). The NCAA (somewhat strangely) uses the previous week's rankings to calculate wins verse regionally ranked opponents, so this won't be reflected until the next regional rankings. Colby needs to hope Ramapo and NEC finish the season well.

It isn't strange that they use the previous week's. The RACs and national committee start from a clean slate each week. Not the previous week's rankings. So, they are looking at all the data (like we all can, somewhat, using the data sheets provided). The vRRO data shows what the teams have per the rankings that are technically current. They rank from there.

There is no way to retabulate that data and rerank without going through countless versions and having to find a stopping point - and even then the rankings will still not reflect the actual vRRO data for the current rankings because teams move in and out of the rankings each time they retabulate.

The only time the vRRO data is retabulated is at the very end ... when the very last rankings are compiled. You can find that in the Pool C chat board in the Multi-Regional grouping.

[nescac1]

I don't think fewer than four New England teams have ever received Pool C bids.  Often it's more.  I would be shocked if Colby was left on the table, even at 22-3.  I think it would take Colby losing to Bates, someone other than Tufts or Midd winning NESCAC, and someone other than Springfield or WPI winning NEWMAC.  Certainly possible, but highly improbable. 

A really interesting case will be if St. Joseph's runs the table until the league title game and then loses.  They are a team that clearly belongs in the tourney based on the eye test, and could do well if selected, but the schedule ended up being really weak despite their best efforts (scheduled four NESCAC teams, but caught Williams in a down year and then they lost to Tufts before their best player had joined the roster).  They probably need a Pool A to make it ...

[Colby Hoops]

If the season were to end today, and thankfully it doesn't, then Tufts would get a Pool C before Colby if they both weren't a Pool A selection.  Six losses vs two losses, that is hard to believe.

I actually think these rankings are good for Colby, despite being passed by WPI and staying behind Tufts. Both New England College and Ramapo jumped into the regional rankings, which would give Colby two extra wins against regionally ranked opponents (moving from 1-2 to 3-2). The NCAA (somewhat strangely) uses the previous week's rankings to calculate wins verse regionally ranked opponents, so this won't be reflected until the next regional rankings. Colby needs to hope Ramapo and NEC finish the season well.

It isn't strange that they use the previous week's. The RACs and national committee start from a clean slate each week. Not the previous week's rankings. So, they are looking at all the data (like we all can, somewhat, using the data sheets provided). The vRRO data shows what the teams have per the rankings that are technically current. They rank from there.

There is no way to retabulate that data and rerank without going through countless versions and having to find a stopping point - and even then the rankings will still not reflect the actual vRRO data for the current rankings because teams move in and out of the rankings each time they retabulate.

The only time the vRRO data is retabulated is at the very end ... when the very last rankings are compiled. You can find that in the Pool C chat board in the Multi-Regional grouping.

Good point, I didn't really consider that. Just seemed weird looking at the rankings and then the vRRO and them not matching up.

[NEhoops]

The Colby/Babson/St. Joseph (CT)/Amherst grouping is very interesting.

I agree that if St. Joseph (CT) loses in the GNAC final they'll probably be left out. I can't see them passing Colby no matter what happens on Saturday.

I think Tufts has a better resume and a head to head win, thus is ahead of Colby. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The Colby/Babson/St. Joseph (CT)/Amherst grouping is very interesting.

I agree that if St. Joseph (CT) loses in the GNAC final they'll probably be left out. I can't see them passing Colby no matter what happens on Saturday.

I think Tufts has a better resume and a head to head win, thus is ahead of Colby.

I don't think we can bet on them being left out. Their SOS will climb a bit with the tournament and the cmte is clearly not hurting them for their SOS.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

The Colby/Babson/St. Joseph (CT)/Amherst grouping is very interesting.

I agree that if St. Joseph (CT) loses in the GNAC final they'll probably be left out. I can't see them passing Colby no matter what happens on Saturday.

I think Tufts has a better resume and a head to head win, thus is ahead of Colby.

St Joe's problem are those two non-counting games.  If they were both 21-2, rather than USJ being two wins behind, that's a different story.  A couple mediocre d3 opponents would've improved the SOS, too.

Plus, if Colby ends up with Bates and Williams in the tourney, that's not going to help the SOS all that much.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The only way those other games get into the mix is if the committee is into secondary criteria. It will boost their WL%, but then they aren't comparable (doubt anyone else they are compared with played those teams) meaning the committee might just ignore the WL% bump.

[Patrick Coleman]

I don't know that we've seen the committee parse the difference between the likes of 20-2 and 22-2 previously.

[JEFFFAN]

So what does the assemblage believe Amherst and Williams need to do in order to get an NCAA playoff bid?