MBB: NESCAC

[rdanie03]

I agree with the coaching praise for Reilly. If I need to win one game (whatever the talent level is), I'm taking him.

I thought they let the game at Conn slip away - not necessarily related to coaching - but it was somewhat of a letdown after their huge win at Tufts.

I agree with that. What's interesting about the losses from each of the top 3 this weekend is that each of them was probably the better team in the game they lost but the other team simply outworked them down the stretch.

[D3BBALL]

I agree with the coaching praise for Reilly. If I need to win one game (whatever the talent level is), I'm taking him.

I thought they let the game at Conn slip away - not necessarily related to coaching - but it was somewhat of a letdown after their huge win at Tufts.

I agree with that. What's interesting about the losses from each of the top 3 this weekend is that each of them was probably the better team in the game they lost but the other team simply outworked them down the stretch.

Agree, can see Wesleyan having a let down against Conn and Conn doesn't just play zone any longer they mix it up quite a bit.
Trinity did lose both of their games on the road, both close. They have won the NESCAC on the road the last 2 years, but hard to do 3 years in a row, but they have shown they can do it.

[D3BBALL]

Only 1 out of conference game this week, not going to changed much
After 4th week of Conference play. The below Strength of Schedule is from Massey and out of 409 teams.
Based on NPI, 4 teams make NCAA Trinity, Tufts, Wesleyan, and Bates. Amherst is 2nd team out.

A lot different than last year where with 3-4 games to go, most team still had a shot at conference playoffs. Bottom 3 teams, while not mathematically eliminated are pretty much so.

1) Wesleyan 16-5 (6-1) (NPI #16) Pool C #5, if season ended today, they would be Pool A – Up 2 spots - Strength of Schedule 30 was 47. Beat both T & T, Tufts on the road. Slip up against Conn to be expected. Coaching making a huge difference to this team.

2) Tufts 17-3 (6-1), (NPI #5) Pool A - No Change – Strength of Schedule 40 was 71. Tough loss against Wesleyan, but huge win against Trinity. Beat Trinity going small and quick.

3) Trinity 17-1 (5-2) (NPI #2) Pool C #1- Down 2 - Strength of Schedule 98 was 132. Terrible loss to Tufts, controlled the game for most of the 40 minutes, just not the important minutes. Huge bench issues, bad shot selections, rebounding and end of game coaching. They are not as good as last year's team, at least not as of right now. Their rankings in both Massey, NPI should be lower just based on how they are playing. This is where the eye test is needed. They should fall out of the top 5 this week nationally.

4) Amherst 15-5 (4-2) (NPI #41) Pool C #23, 2 outside of getting in NCAA – No Change – Strength of Schedule 135 was 151 280. They continue to trend up, still have some tough games left, but they can beat anyone in the league.

5) Bates 16-4 (4-2) (NPI #22) C pool #8 – No Change - Strength of Schedule 112 was 116. 2 wins and they now have Pouye back who played much better in his 2nd game back. Now they play Wesleyan, Tufts and Trinity in 3 out of final 4 games. Need to win at least 1 of them.

6) Conn 15-6 (3-4) – (NPI #48) C pool #28 – No Change – Strength of Schedule 105 was 181. They beat Wesleyan and with 10 minutes to go tied with Trintiy. They are right there for NCAA just need to win.

7) Bowdoin 13-7 (3-3) (NPI #58) Pool C #34 – Up 1 - Strength of Schedule 74 was 101. Bad lost to Amherst. Still have Wesleyan and Trintiy on the road. Need to probably win the NESCAC conference championship to have any chance at NCAA.

8) Colby 14-6 (2-4) (NPI #45) Pool C #26 – Down 1 – Strength of Schedule 105 was 143. Lucky to beat Hamilton. Same as above with Bowdoin, still have to play Wesleyan and Trintiy on the road. Need to probably win the NESCAC conference championship to have any chance at NCAA.

9) Middlebury 7-12 (1-5) (NPI #197) Pool C #155- No Change – Strength of Schedule 42 was 24. Terrible loss to CCNY, but on the road. Good first half against Bates, not so great 2nd half, not going to make conference play.

11) Hamilton 5-15 (1-5), (NPI #268) Pool C #225 - Up 1 - Strength of Schedule 66 was 61. Should have beaten both Colby and Bowdoin, just needed to finish the games. Not going to make conference play.

10) Williams 11-9 (0-6) (NPI #130) Pool C #93 – Down 1 – Strength of Schedule 81 was 92. Just not their year. Played Bates OK, but Pouye was not great and first game back. At Colby and Bowdoin, both needing wins, so going to be tough for Williams. Could be 0-8 going into last weekend. Not going to make conference play.

[stlawus]

I'm surprised there haven't been more comments on Middlebury losing to CCNY.  A NESCAC team losing to Massey #375 is pretty much unheard of.

[NEhoops]

Tufts
Remaining schedule: at Amherst; at Hamilton; at Bates
Tough road slate to end the season. Amherst has picked up momentum playing at home – this is their fourth straight home conference game. The trip to Hamilton is always daunting and they have been competitive in their recent games. The game at Bates will be the final game of league play and the only one 2/15. Tufts escaped at home last year with an OT win.

Wesleyan
Remaining schedule: Bates; Bowdoin; Colby
I see them winning out and locking up the one seed. Bates comes to town after playing Trinity the night before and I don't think Bowdoin/Colby have what it takes on both ends to hang with them for 40 minutes, particularly on the road.

Trinity
Remaining schedule: Bates; Colby; Bowdoin
Same schedule as Wesleyan and I also see them winning out. Seems like they are always a bad matchup for Bates and same as above for Colby and Bowdoin from a talent/depth standpoint. They lost the tiebreaker against Tufts and Wesleyan, so I likely see them getting the three seed unless Tufts trips up.

Amherst
Remaining schedule: Tufts; Conn; at Middlebury; at Williams
From an NPI standpoint, it seems as though a win against Tufts would put them in a good spot for an at-large bid, a sweep would be even better. As was stated earlier, they can beat anybody, particularly when they are home. Wins against Middlebury or Williams won't move the needle, but a lost could hurt.

Bates
Remaining schedule: at Trinity; at Wesleyan; Conn; Tufts
They will be underdogs against Trinty and Wesleyan, but stranger things have happened in NESCAC play. The Conn game will be a challenge and a fight for conference seeding. Tufts may already have their seeding decided before they come to town. Likely need to beat Conn and at least one of the top three to keep pace.

Conn
Remaining schedule: at Hamilton; at Amherst; at Bates
Same challenging road games as Tufts – three tough teams/venues. I think they need to win out (and hats off to them if they do) to get into the at-large conversation. A win against Hamilton won't be a huge help, but they can't afford a loss. Wins against Amherst and Bates would be a boost from a NPI standpoint. 

[nescac1]

Like other Eph fans, I never could have imagined this (or any) Eph season going this badly.  Kind of the perfect storm of things going terribly.  There are a lot of problems right now for the Eph squad, but a lot of them boil down to the fact that they simply cannot shoot the ball.  The greatest Eph teams (from 2003/2004, 2010, and 2014) were all stellar shooting teams, and for the system (really, any system) to work guys needs to be hitting outside shots and free throws.  30 percent from three point range simply won't cut it and it's really far worse than that against the more competitive teams - take out Knox, Emmanuel, Worcester State, Springfield, Suny Morrsiville an Suny Dehli, and I suspect the three point shooting is more like around 25 percent against teams that guard the 3 remotely well.  In fact, in conference play, Williams is an absolutely brutal 26 percent from 3, which I guarantee is easily the worst in Williams history.  It certainly didn't help that the two best shooters on the team missed their entire senior years with injuries, that is definitely some very bad luck.  Another problem is only one junior in the rotation and he's a guy who barely played his first two years due to injury.  But unfortunately, no one else has really stepped up as a reliable shooter from outside.   

Williams also struggles to shoot the ball from the line. The Middlebury game really encapsulated it.  In the second half, the Ephs drove into the lane at will, getting easy looks at the rim vs. Midd's fairly porous interior defense.  But whenever they kicked out for a (usually) open 3, it almost never went in.  And this team almost NEVER hits a closely contested three.  Middlebury on the other hand nailed a lot of open shots and some difficult ones late in the shot clock, which was just enough to win because after all 3 > 2.  If you can't hit a decent number of guarded 3's, and miss far too many open ones, it clogs up everything else on the floor.  Free throws have also been a major problem - again in the Midd game, Williams missed two front-end of one and ones when they had a small lead late in the game, essentially costing them the game.  Three of the guards in the Eph rotation are struggling at 47 percent or below from the line, and when your primary ball-handlers are missing free throws, that is a death sentence late in close games. 

Another thing you just never see from this Eph squad is a long two, especially a long two off the dribble. The entire offense can't be at the rim and from 3, even if those are the most efficient shots analytically, and once Alex Lee went down, there was a glaring hole in terms of ANYONE who could take a few dribbles and consistently knock down even an uncontested mid-range shot.  A lot of games those shots have been there and there just doesn't seem to be a comfort level for anyone to shoot off the dribble in the mid-range, which allows the defense to over-correct against the 3 and guys in the paint. 

I do think this will be a nadir for the program as there is enough young talent to bounce back next year and especially in future years, with the top two scorers and seven of the top nine returning.  Jackson Rein has been a break-out player and should continue to improve, and I think will be a clear all-league guy as an upperclassman, but is more of a jack-of-all-trades who is overtaxed if he has to be the first option on offense; he will be so much more effective if he's set up to finish plays by other guys.  Although his minutes have diminished a bit of late, I still think EJ Sommers is going to be a star at center for this team in the future, he just needs to add some strength and get more consistent as a shooter to open up his stellar driving game.  Those two guys definitely have the size and skill to be the centerpiece of a high-level frontcourt as they mature as players.   

Aidan Yates at wing has been up and down this year and is another guy, like Rein, who will be more effective if he can have other players setting him up with an advantage against a defense in rotation.  But where Williams needs to improve dramatically is at guard.  Perhaps some first years can come in and help, they do have a few recruits who seem to fill a badly needed niche as bigger guards who can dribble into a shot. If not, Marshall/Belcher/Devine/Shepherd are a very athletic quartet who get a lot of steals and all make things happen off the bounce - the question is, can they improve as finishers and also as guys who set up teammates for easier looks?  They all were very inexperienced before this year so hopefully come back as more confident shooters and decision-makers in particular.  A lot of the upside of the team over the next two years depends on a big leap forward from that group of players, all of whom have had some very good moments - but not nearly enough of them.  Gudeman also showed some promise this year in limited minutes as a guy who can actually get some tough buckets off the bounce.

Of all the players I've mentioned, only Devine is going to be a senior next year.  So it's likely to be a two-year rebuild for Williams.  But so much depends on whether guys can improve as outside shooters and also at the line, where the guards all need to be at least around 65 percent, ideally better.  There is plenty of athletic ability and quickness on the returning roster, in a lot of these losses the team wasn't so far away from where they need to be, but they just never seemed to be able to get a run of outside shots to go down when they needed them, and that impacted everything on the court, including on the defensive end where energy was impacted during these long offensive draughts.  I do believe however that things are not as bleak, in terms of long-term prognosis, as it seems from a winless (to date) league season. 

Looking at the rest of the league, my thoughts on the current status of all-league as we head into the back stretch of the season:

1st team: Ray Cuevas (POTY, and I think an easy choice), Jarrell Okorougo, Sam Pohlman, Henry Vetter, Scott Gyimesi, Babacar Pouye, Dan Civello

2nd team: Zach Wolinski (could end up on first team especially if Wesleyan wins the league, there are really eight deserving candidates), Elias Chin, Elias Espinosa, James Lafrance, Drew Lazarre, and the final two spots are wide open, I'll say Dylan Reilly and Jackson Rein with Poulton, Cantwell, Neville, Medley and Hammond also in the mix depending on how things go.     

ROTY is between I think KJ Neville and Mason Dawkins, both are very deserving and if Amherst keeps playing well Neville will likely be the guy. 

[orangeballfan]

Middlebury- what can one say??  It's been a hard season to watch from afar.  I cannot image how defeated the players must feel.

Across multiple games, the team has consistently underperformed in the second half, often following strong first-half play. Opponents are making effective halftime adjustments while Midd's approach remains largely static. Substitution patterns also appear rigid and predictable, with starters routinely exiting at nearly identical points in each half (after 4 minutes of play) regardless of performance or game context.  Rotations are easy to anticipate and limit responsiveness to momentum, foul trouble, or individual matchups. Player utilization decisions have been difficult to understand. Players who are performing well—such as McKersie during the first half against Bates—have seen reduced minutes in the second half, while others with persistent weaknesses, including free-throw percentages near or below 40%, continue to receive extended playing time. At this level, free-throw reliability and performance-based minutes are fundamental to closing competitive games. Finally, there appears to be little visible evolution in offensive or defensive schemes over the course of the season. The repetition of the same strategies, rotations, and outcomes suggests a stagnation that is concerning for a program with Middlebury's standards and resources. I know it's Coach Goldsmith's first season but I didn't expect this.

[D3BBALL]

"Looking at the rest of the league, my thoughts on the current status of all-league as we head into the back stretch of the season:

1st team: Ray Cuevas (POTY, and I think an easy choice), Jarrell Okorougo, Sam Pohlman, Henry Vetter, Scott Gyimesi, Babacar Pouye, Dan Civello

2nd team: Zach Wolinski (could end up on first team especially if Wesleyan wins the league, there are really eight deserving candidates), Elias Chin, Elias Espinosa, James Lafrance, Drew Lazarre, and the final two spots are wide open, I'll say Dylan Reilly and Jackson Rein with Poulton, Cantwell, Neville, Medley and Hammond also in the mix depending on how things go.   

ROTY is between I think KJ Neville and Mason Dawkins, both are very deserving and if Amherst keeps playing well Neville will likely be the guy."

NESCAC1 agree with a lot of above with the exception of the following:

Cuevas is definitely in the running for POY, not sure how he wins it right now, his team is 6th in the league, and especially with Pohlman's play. Let's see how he finishes against Wesleyan and Trinity. I think still a 3-person race Cuevas, Pohlman, and Vetter. Gyimesi on the outside looking in, just not scoring enough, maybe not his fault. Last year you had Morgan and his shooting percentages were much better than Cuevas and Morgan had a plus assist to turn over ratio. Still wide open.

No Civello on 1st team. In league stats, he is shooting 45%, 29% from 3 and is the 7th leading rebounder on his on team, yes 7th leading rebounder, Hinman out rebounds him. Come on now!!! He is not 1st team at this time.
I think Chin needs to be in consideration for 1st team before Civello as well.

On Lafrance, he is shooting 33% and 25% from 3, 3 assists, 12 turnovers, can't be on top 2 teams with stats like that.

On Rein, (you just have to get a Williams player on the team, lol) he has come on lately but not against good teams and he has 3 assists and 14 turnovers. Right now he doesn't belong.

Agree on ROY

[nescac1]

Fair points, D3bball.  You persuaded me to swap Wolinski in for Civello on the first team.  Wesleyan certainly deserves two and Wolinski is maybe the most overlooked / underdiscussed player in the league, the guy hits extremely difficult shots from everywhere on the floor and is a big-game player, his leap forward has been the biggest reason that Wesleyan hasn't missed a beat from last year in league play. 

As for Rein, while I'm not saying he is definitely deserving, the rough Wesleyan/Trinity weekend hurt him, I do feel the last two spots on the team are wide open and right now there are no slam-dunk candidates.  You start running out of guys fast on a 14-man team.  You are just looking at league stats which are the most important, but also a small sample size especially with a lot of league games still to go, and I think you have to also look at overall stats as well.  Rein is 9th in the league in (overall) scoring average, 14th in rebounding, 10th in FGP and 11th in three point percentage, plus is a solid defender.  He's absolutely deserving of at least being in the conversation (and honestly I think belongs in the top 14) despite his lack of team success (which isn't his fault at all). Hamilton, Midd and Williams have all been awful this year, but on a 14-player team you figure one guy from the bottom three is not crazy. 

Same logic for Lafrance - he's 4th in the league in overall scoring average.  A few strong league games would certainly help his candidacy.  But he could drop off. In the end I think two of Lafrance, Espinosa and Cantwell are second-teamers. 

You definitely value team success more than I do in the POTY race.  I think it's a tie-breaker at a minimum and not meaningless, but I think the best player should win when there is a clear best player regardless of team success. 

Cuevas is 5.3 points ahead of the next guy in overall ppg, that's crazy.  He's first in the league in 3 point percentage by a mile.  He's the primary ball-handler, leads his team in assists, carries a huge scoring burden (his scoring average is DOUBLE the next guy on his team), and the focus of every single opposing defense.  He put up 28 vs. Tufts and 27 vs. Conn, those are big-time efforts.  If you want to look at conference only, he's easily first in scoring, and does it with a very high efficiency.

Bowdoin is 3-3 in the league and without him would absolutely be 0-6 with probably every loss a blow-out.   If he wants to he will be a mid-major D1 player next year.  Pohlman has had a great year for sure - he has improved so much over his career - but he has much more around him and he doesn't carry nearly the offensive load of Cuevas, Cuevas gets way more attention as a scorer.  And to me Vetter, as great as he is, isn't even the best overall player on his own team, and with Trinity picking up two losses, I don't really see the logic of picking a Trinity guy from a well-balanced squad.

It would be a bit odd having the POTY and ROTY both from Bowdoin so there I'd leave Neville as I think it's basically even between him and Dawkins. 

COTY lots of great candidates and solid arguments above in this thread.  Reilly would be my pick there but it's a great year for coaches in the top half of the league.   

[redbirds]

Wesleyan has the chance to be at home for the rest of the season until the Final 4. They have Bates coming into town this weekend, followed by the Maine schools. If they take care of business, they will host the Nescac tournament for the second year in a row, and if they take care of business there they will (likely) host two weekends in March. No better atmosphere in March than Silloway.

[D3BBALL]

Nescac1, I will give you some leeway on Rein .

But on Lafrance, you can't have a player that is shooting less than 35% overall and less than 25% from 3, as all conference and 4-1 in the negative assist/turnover ratio. He takes the most shots on the team, yet he is 3rd in scoring and the 4th player is 2 points per game behind and has taken 30 less shots in 7 games. That is not close to all conference. 

[D3BBALL]

Wesleyan has the chance to be at home for the rest of the season until the Final 4. They have Bates coming into town this weekend, followed by the Maine schools. If they take care of business, they will host the Nescac tournament for the second year in a row, and if they take care of business there they will (likely) host two weekends in March. No better atmosphere in March than Silloway.

Agree, but I think those Maine teams are going to beat either Trinity or Wesleyan in the last three games. Just don't see at least of them winning one game. And could easily see tufts winning their last three games and then they would be the top seed if Wesleyan were to lose a game.