MBB: NESCAC

[jmh21]

Great win for the Ephs today to finish the season strong. Seems like them and Amherst are pretty much a guarantee to split every year at this point

[nescac1]

Cuevas put up 50 over two games this weekend on great shooting against some of the best perimeter defenders in the country in Cameron and the various dudes Trinity can throw at a guard.  He has to be a scorer because no one else on his team is a reliable creator. I guess we will see what the coaches say but to me it's either him or Okorougo for POTY and no one else has a shot.  Either one would be a great choice. Cuevas will be a deserved all-American either way and I think D1 coaches will have the final word on his quality as a player this off-season (not saying he will leave - but if he wants to the options will be there). 

Awesome to see Williams close out with a convincing win over Amherst. This was a very rough season for the Ephs but at least they ended on a high note playing by FAR their best hoops of the season to end the year, and hopefully will carry this momentum into the off-season and a return to form next year.  Today was a credit to the seniors who played their asses off.  Dickens had I'd say the best game of his career, playing very well on both ends and hitting two huge triples (one a bank shot as the shot clock wound down - each team got one of those!).  Chibuogwu was everywhere on defense and was massive on the boards and pushing the pace.  McGraw got a bucket off a pretty cut despite very limited mobility, he really could have been a nice player for the Ephs with better fortune.  Hansen was the Ephs' best player on offense and ended his stellar career in style.  Cooley hit a few big shots as well.  As a unit they sparked the team to a big start to the second half with super intense play, and Williams controlled the game from there on out.

Matt Devine continued his strong late-season surge with three big triples and a highlight-reel dunk, he looks ready to be a quality starter at the two as as senior.  Yates and Rein both had solid two-way games as well.  But today was about an exhibition of heart for a senior class that has seen a ton of adversity.

Tough loss for Amherst but tough to beat a rival twice in one year, even when you are the better team (something Williams has learned a few times in recent years).  I think Amherst is still likely safe for the NCAA tourney with their high NPI, but if they lose next weekend, they will certainly have to sweat it out.  Neville was great today and certainly has my vote for ROTY (although there are loads of good options to pick from this season, Dawkins and Robinson especially, GREAT rookie class in NESCAC).  Garraud is a massive pest on defense and Chin is rock-solid and always brings it vs. Williams.  Chin and Neville are so physical and hard to keep out of the lane.  That three-guard rotation should be one of the best in the country next year, and despite their youth is already very tough to deal with.  Nate Pabis also had a strong game and has to be one of the most improved players in the league - moving to the 4, like for Hammond, really suited his game, I expect him to be a solid starter for Amherst next season. Amherst could not get the 3's to drop today but credit to the Eph D which ran through all of the zillion screens Amherst likes to set like their life depended on it.  Seven big blocks for the Ephs and a number of those game on jump shots, they contested like crazy. Best defensive play of the game was Belcher blocking what seemed like an easy transition layup for Neville, Belcher is as good a small guard I've seen in NESCAC at blocking shots.  Would have loved to have seen this level of play on both ends from the Ephs a few weeks ago, but better late than never!

Good luck to the rest of NESCAC in the NESCAC and NCAA tourney.  Trinity, Tufts and Wesleyan are locks for the NCAA already and Trinity at least is a lock to host in round one.  Amherst and Bates are in very good shape but I'm not sure both get in.  If Amherst plays Bates next weekend, that could effectively be an elimination game for the NCAA tourney, which would be a lot of fun and extremely stressful.  Both teams will be desperate for a win as neither has tasted the NCAAs for a very long time (especially Bates).  Although possible both can make it and NESCAC can get five depending on how things go elsewhere, I think a loss may drop either just enough to be on the wrong side of the bubble. 

[Stickthe3]

With one league game left, this is what we're looking at for the playoff seeds and matchups. Seeds 1 (Wesleyan), 5 (Bates), 6 (Bowdoin), 7 (Colby) and 8 (Conn College) are secured due to records and head to head tiebreakers.  Seeds 2, 3 and 4 (a combo of Tufts, Trinity and Amherst) are dependent on the outcome of the Tufts-Bates game on Sunday afternoon.

Scenario 1 - with a Tufts win vs Bates on Sunday
#1 Wesleyan vs #8 Conn College
#2 Tufts (as a result of their win against Trinity) vs #7 Colby (as a result of their win against Conn)
#3 Trinity vs #6 Bowdoin
#4 Amherst vs #5 Bates (as a result of their win against Bowdoin)


Scenario 2 - with a Tufts loss vs Bates on Sunday
#1 Wesleyan vs #8 Conn College
#2 Trinity vs #7 Colby
#3 Amherst (as a result of their win against Tufts) vs #6 Bowdoin
#4 Tufts vs #5 Bates

[ziggy]

Tough loss for Amherst but tough to beat a rival twice in one year, even when you are the better team (something Williams has learned a few times in recent years).  I think Amherst is still likely safe for the NCAA tourney with their high NPI, but if they lose next weekend, they will certainly have to sweat it out.  Neville was great today and certainly has my vote for ROTY (although there are loads of good options to pick from this season, Dawkins and Robinson especially, GREAT rookie class in NESCAC).  Garraud is a massive pest on defense and Chin is rock-solid and always brings it vs. Williams.  Chin and Neville are so physical and hard to keep out of the lane.  That three-guard rotation should be one of the best in the country next year, and despite their youth is already very tough to deal with.  Nate Pabis also had a strong game and has to be one of the most improved players in the league - moving to the 4, like for Hammond, really suited his game, I expect him to be a solid starter for Amherst next season. Amherst could not get the 3's to drop today but credit to the Eph D which ran through all of the zillion screens Amherst likes to set like their life depended on it.  Seven big blocks for the Ephs and a number of those game on jump shots, they contested like crazy. Best defensive play of the game was Belcher blocking what seemed like an easy transition layup for Neville, Belcher is as good a small guard I've seen in NESCAC at blocking shots.  Would have loved to have seen this level of play on both ends from the Ephs a few weeks ago, but better late than never!

You may be underrating the position Amherst entered the day and overrating the detrimental effect of today's loss. In our new run of simulations this morning, Amherst was in the tournament 100% of the time and according to game leverage on our daily scores predictions, the difference in those odds between winning and losing today was just 1%.

Good luck to the rest of NESCAC in the NESCAC and NCAA tourney.  Trinity, Tufts and Wesleyan are locks for the NCAA already and Trinity at least is a lock to host in round one.  Amherst and Bates are in very good shape but I'm not sure both get in.  If Amherst plays Bates next weekend, that could effectively be an elimination game for the NCAA tourney, which would be a lot of fun and extremely stressful.  Both teams will be desperate for a win as neither has tasted the NCAAs for a very long time (especially Bates).  Although possible both can make it and NESCAC can get five depending on how things go elsewhere, I think a loss may drop either just enough to be on the wrong side of the bubble. 

The NESCAC averaged 5.16 bids in this morning's run of 1,000 simulations after having crossed over from an average in the fours to over five earlier this week. As of this morning, Bates didn't look in quite as good of position as Amherst but still very strong. Colby had some tournament life but at-large odds at 17.4% suggested a narrower path that surely involved beating Wesleyan today.

Stay tuned to D3Datacast.com for tomorrow's update!

[jumpshot]

Anyone else notice how physical NESCAC men's basketball has become? Lots of holding offensive players and screeners, jumping into defenders at the hoop, warding off, forceful backing down by bigs, kicking a leg forward on three point attempts drawing a faux foul, knocking players to the floor, obvious attempts to intimidate early, etc. Not complaining, simply pointing out changes in tone run in cycles, unabated by referees lacking common guidance at Division III level. Similar to forbearance of palming a few years ago, now gone forever. 

[D3BBALL]

Cuevas put up 50 over two games this weekend on great shooting against some of the best perimeter defenders in the country in Cameron and the various dudes Trinity can throw at a guard.  He has to be a scorer because no one else on his team is a reliable creator. I guess we will see what the coaches say but to me it's either him or Okorougo for POTY and no one else has a shot.  Either one would be a great choice. Cuevas will be a deserved all-American either way and I think D1 coaches will have the final word on his quality as a player this off-season (not saying he will leave - but if he wants to the options will be there). 

Awesome to see Williams close out with a convincing win over Amherst. This was a very rough season for the Ephs but at least they ended on a high note playing by FAR their best hoops of the season to end the year, and hopefully will carry this momentum into the off-season and a return to form next year.  Today was a credit to the seniors who played their asses off.  Dickens had I'd say the best game of his career, playing very well on both ends and hitting two huge triples (one a bank shot as the shot clock wound down - each team got one of those!).  Chibuogwu was everywhere on defense and was massive on the boards and pushing the pace.  McGraw got a bucket off a pretty cut despite very limited mobility, he really could have been a nice player for the Ephs with better fortune.  Hansen was the Ephs' best player on offense and ended his stellar career in style.  Cooley hit a few big shots as well.  As a unit they sparked the team to a big start to the second half with super intense play, and Williams controlled the game from there on out.

Matt Devine continued his strong late-season surge with three big triples and a highlight-reel dunk, he looks ready to be a quality starter at the two as as senior.  Yates and Rein both had solid two-way games as well.  But today was about an exhibition of heart for a senior class that has seen a ton of adversity.

Tough loss for Amherst but tough to beat a rival twice in one year, even when you are the better team (something Williams has learned a few times in recent years).  I think Amherst is still likely safe for the NCAA tourney with their high NPI, but if they lose next weekend, they will certainly have to sweat it out.  Neville was great today and certainly has my vote for ROTY (although there are loads of good options to pick from this season, Dawkins and Robinson especially, GREAT rookie class in NESCAC).  Garraud is a massive pest on defense and Chin is rock-solid and always brings it vs. Williams.  Chin and Neville are so physical and hard to keep out of the lane.  That three-guard rotation should be one of the best in the country next year, and despite their youth is already very tough to deal with.  Nate Pabis also had a strong game and has to be one of the most improved players in the league - moving to the 4, like for Hammond, really suited his game, I expect him to be a solid starter for Amherst next season. Amherst could not get the 3's to drop today but credit to the Eph D which ran through all of the zillion screens Amherst likes to set like their life depended on it.  Seven big blocks for the Ephs and a number of those game on jump shots, they contested like crazy. Best defensive play of the game was Belcher blocking what seemed like an easy transition layup for Neville, Belcher is as good a small guard I've seen in NESCAC at blocking shots.  Would have loved to have seen this level of play on both ends from the Ephs a few weeks ago, but better late than never!

Good luck to the rest of NESCAC in the NESCAC and NCAA tourney.  Trinity, Tufts and Wesleyan are locks for the NCAA already and Trinity at least is a lock to host in round one.  Amherst and Bates are in very good shape but I'm not sure both get in.  If Amherst plays Bates next weekend, that could effectively be an elimination game for the NCAA tourney, which would be a lot of fun and extremely stressful.  Both teams will be desperate for a win as neither has tasted the NCAAs for a very long time (especially Bates).  Although possible both can make it and NESCAC can get five depending on how things go elsewhere, I think a loss may drop either just enough to be on the wrong side of the bubble. 

Nescac1 you were not there today. He had 9 points and it was a 20+ point lead before he scored any points against the first team. Lazarre and others shut him down, one on one they didn't double team him. He had 3 points on technical free throws and his coach left him in the game during garbage time. He had zero affect on the game and was bad defensively, had 4 turn overs in just the first half. He had 6 turnovers and 1 assist. He doesn't pass the ball. It would be a total wrong if he wins POY. He has not had a season close to Morgan last year! Again POY is not just about the best offensive player in the league.

[D3BBALL]

Anyone else notice how physical NESCAC men's basketball has become? Lots of holding offensive players and screeners, jumping into defenders at the hoop, warding off, forceful backing down by bigs, kicking a leg forward on three point attempts drawing a faux foul, knocking players to the floor, obvious attempts to intimidate early, etc. Not complaining, simply pointing out changes in tone run in cycles, unabated by referees lacking common guidance at Division III level. Similar to forbearance of palming a few years ago, now gone forever. 

Agree probably best defensive league in D3

[D3BBALL]

Tough loss for Amherst but tough to beat a rival twice in one year, even when you are the better team (something Williams has learned a few times in recent years).  I think Amherst is still likely safe for the NCAA tourney with their high NPI, but if they lose next weekend, they will certainly have to sweat it out.  Neville was great today and certainly has my vote for ROTY (although there are loads of good options to pick from this season, Dawkins and Robinson especially, GREAT rookie class in NESCAC).  Garraud is a massive pest on defense and Chin is rock-solid and always brings it vs. Williams.  Chin and Neville are so physical and hard to keep out of the lane.  That three-guard rotation should be one of the best in the country next year, and despite their youth is already very tough to deal with.  Nate Pabis also had a strong game and has to be one of the most improved players in the league - moving to the 4, like for Hammond, really suited his game, I expect him to be a solid starter for Amherst next season. Amherst could not get the 3's to drop today but credit to the Eph D which ran through all of the zillion screens Amherst likes to set like their life depended on it.  Seven big blocks for the Ephs and a number of those game on jump shots, they contested like crazy. Best defensive play of the game was Belcher blocking what seemed like an easy transition layup for Neville, Belcher is as good a small guard I've seen in NESCAC at blocking shots.  Would have loved to have seen this level of play on both ends from the Ephs a few weeks ago, but better late than never!

You may be underrating the position Amherst entered the day and overrating the detrimental effect of today's loss. In our new run of simulations this morning, Amherst was in the tournament 100% of the time and according to game leverage on our daily scores predictions, the difference in those odds between winning and losing today was just 1%.

Good luck to the rest of NESCAC in the NESCAC and NCAA tourney.  Trinity, Tufts and Wesleyan are locks for the NCAA already and Trinity at least is a lock to host in round one.  Amherst and Bates are in very good shape but I'm not sure both get in.  If Amherst plays Bates next weekend, that could effectively be an elimination game for the NCAA tourney, which would be a lot of fun and extremely stressful.  Both teams will be desperate for a win as neither has tasted the NCAAs for a very long time (especially Bates).  Although possible both can make it and NESCAC can get five depending on how things go elsewhere, I think a loss may drop either just enough to be on the wrong side of the bubble. 

The NESCAC averaged 5.16 bids in this morning's run of 1,000 simulations after having crossed over from an average in the fours to over five earlier this week. As of this morning, Bates didn't look in quite as good of position as Amherst but still very strong. Colby had some tournament life but at-large odds at 17.4% suggested a narrower path that surely involved beating Wesleyan today.

Stay tuned to D3Datacast.com for tomorrow's update!

Issue for both bates and Amherst will be the number of upsets in other conferences play. Too many may knock either out of ncaa!

[D3BBALL]

With one league game left, this is what we're looking at for the playoff seeds and matchups. Seeds 1 (Wesleyan), 5 (Bates), 6 (Bowdoin), 7 (Colby) and 8 (Conn College) are secured due to records and head to head tiebreakers.  Seeds 2, 3 and 4 (a combo of Tufts, Trinity and Amherst) are dependent on the outcome of the Tufts-Bates game on Sunday afternoon.

Scenario 1 - with a Tufts win vs Bates on Sunday
#1 Wesleyan vs #8 Conn College
#2 Tufts (as a result of their win against Trinity) vs #7 Colby (as a result of their win against Conn)
#3 Trinity vs #6 Bowdoin
#4 Amherst vs #5 Bates (as a result of their win against Bowdoin)


Scenario 2 - with a Tufts loss vs Bates on Sunday
#1 Wesleyan vs #8 Conn College
#2 Trinity vs #7 Colby
#3 Amherst (as a result of their win against Tufts) vs #6 Bowdoin
#4 Tufts vs #5 Bates

With one league game left, this is what we're looking at for the playoff seeds and matchups. Seeds 1 (Wesleyan), 5 (Bates), 6 (Bowdoin), 7 (Colby) and 8 (Conn College) are secured due to records and head to head tiebreakers.  Seeds 2, 3 and 4 (a combo of Tufts, Trinity and Amherst) are dependent on the outcome of the Tufts-Bates game on Sunday afternoon.

Scenario 1 - with a Tufts win vs Bates on Sunday
#1 Wesleyan vs #8 Conn College
#2 Tufts (as a result of their win against Trinity) vs #7 Colby (as a result of their win against Conn)
#3 Trinity vs #6 Bowdoin
#4 Amherst vs #5 Bates (as a result of their win against Bowdoin)


Scenario 2 - with a Tufts loss vs Bates on Sunday
#1 Wesleyan vs #8 Conn College
#2 Trinity vs #7 Colby
#3 Amherst (as a result of their win against Tufts) vs #6 Bowdoin
#4 Tufts vs #5 Bates

Wouldn't want to play Amherst or Conn in first round.

[ziggy]

Issue for both bates and Amherst will be the number of upsets in other conferences play. Too many may knock either out of ncaa!

Our simulations play out the rest of the regular season and simulated conference tournaments so basing the odds on the results of 1,000 simulations means a variety of bid thief scenarios are accounted for. Some sims will see a lot, some very few but just wanted to be clear that our odds do take that into account.

[D3BBALL]

Issue for both bates and Amherst will be the number of upsets in other conferences play. Too many may knock either out of ncaa!

Our simulations play out the rest of the regular season and simulated conference tournaments so basing the odds on the results of 1,000 simulations means a variety of bid thief scenarios are accounted for. Some sims will see a lot, some very few but just wanted to be clear that our odds do take that into account.

Kind of figured it did. Last year it was very interesting to watch how everything moved over the final weekend of conference championship games. Looks like Bates and Amherst are going to play each other next week in quarterfinals unless Bates beats tufts today. Two losses for bates has to move them down, how much would you estimate they would move down in NPI ranking.

[NEhoops]

Ziggy - appreciate the rankings and we hope the simulations are accurate for the NESCAC (arguably the best conference along with the UAA) getting five teams in the tournament.

I think a Bates (NPI 27) win today OR a win at Amherst (NPI 30) in the quarterfinals puts them in a good spot. Losing both and they would need some help. If Amherst comes up short against Bates (or Bowdoin in the other scenario), they will likely have to cross their fingers.

As nescac1 mentioned, the potential Bates at Amherst matchup next weekend could be somewhat on an elimination game due to some likely chaos across the other conferences.

[ziggy]

As nescac1 mentioned, the potential Bates at Amherst matchup next weekend could be somewhat on an elimination game due to some likely chaos across the other conferences.

We're just not seeing that in the sims. As of this morning, even in sims with a loss in the NESCAC quarters, Bates gets at at-large bid at 88.2% and Amherst at 97.1%.

Keep in mind that when we're talking about at-large bids we're talking about an entire pool of teams that have added a loss (aside from anyone in the UAA since they don't have a conference tournament). Teams who suffer that loss to teams ranked lower will be hurt more than teams that suffer that loss from a highly ranked team. Talking about Amherst or Bates knocking each other out, that's going to be like a loss to a Top 30 team and that's not so bad in the big picture.

https://d3datacast.com/conference-ratings/nescac/

[toad22]

I almost never write about who the best players are, because I'm more into who the best teams are. Since Williams is out so early I will give you a perspective about individual players from the opposing team's perspective. In the ten games of league play (who cares how many points get scored against mostly inferior teams?), the best performances against Williams were in no order: Wolinski, Okorougo, Espinosa, and Cuavas. All were really good, and greatly contributed to their victories. Based just on their statistical performances, Espinosa was the best, followed by Wolinski, Okorougo, and Cuavas. The most important player against Williams was Cuavas, simply because he had little help from his teammates. He had to do it all on his own, so our defenders really dogged him. Looking at the league numbers, Cuavas and Wolinski are even in scoring. Okorougo is somewhat below in scoring, but he does so many other things, that he might be the most responsible for his team winning of any player in the league. I like Okorougo for MVP.

[D3BBALL]

As nescac1 mentioned, the potential Bates at Amherst matchup next weekend could be somewhat on an elimination game due to some likely chaos across the other conferences.

We're just not seeing that in the sims. As of this morning, even in sims with a loss in the NESCAC quarters, Bates gets at at-large bid at 88.2% and Amherst at 97.1%.

Keep in mind that when we're talking about at-large bids we're talking about an entire pool of teams that have added a loss (aside from anyone in the UAA since they don't have a conference tournament). Teams who suffer that loss to teams ranked lower will be hurt more than teams that suffer that loss from a highly ranked team. Talking about Amherst or Bates knocking each other out, that's going to be like a loss to a Top 30 team and that's not so bad in the big picture.

https://d3datacast.com/conference-ratings/nescac/

Thanks for clarifying, you guys doing an awesome job with all these numbers.