FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[USTBench]

Pretty much stopped drinking beer in January and just drink bourbon instead, now. Lost 25lbs.

Didn't really miss it until the first 85 degree day of the year on the golf course. So i amended my policy to only a 6 pack per 9 holes.

What's your go to bourbon? I'm a Woodford and Angel's Envy guy personally.

EDIT: It's nice to have the board return to its normal summer topics after this spring :-)

Initially I was drinking Bulleit predominantly, but now I tend to drink more Maker's Mark (though I did drink a lot of Woodford Reserve during the Derby because the commercials kept saying I should).

I really like Angel's Envy and Four Roses, but those are "sometimes" bourbons.

Of course, if someone has some Pappy Van Winkle they're willing to share, all of those other preferences are moot.

[OzJohnnie]

I read an interesting article this evening on the closing of DIII Newbury last month and it had what I suspect was some commentary relevant to the concerns motivating the MIAC.  It linked to a number of interesting articles.

Harvard Business School professor: Half of American colleges will be bankrupt in 10 to 15 years.  Perhaps a bit alarmist but still I'm sure a worry for those who are responsible for these institutions.

In his recent book, “The Innovative University, ” Christensen and co-author Henry Eyring analyze the future of traditional universities, and conclude that online education will become a more cost-effective way for students to receive an education, effectively undermining the business models of traditional institutions and running them out of business.

At the Innovation + Disruption Symposium in Higher Education in 2017, Christensen specifically predicted that “50 percent of the 4,000 colleges and universities in the U.S. will be bankrupt in 10 to 15 years.”

I wouldn't be surprised to find this discounting trend is a key part of the financial viability challenge for DIII schools.  Discount Rates Hit Record Highs

A national study of college tuition discount rates has found that private colleges and universities offered incoming freshmen discounts higher than 50 percent during the last academic year and projects record high discounts this year.

According to an annual study by the National Association of College and University Business Officers, or NACUBO, discount rates surpassed 50 percent in 2017-18 and are on course to hit 52 percent in 2018-19. The rapidly rising rates are the result of continued efforts by colleges and universities to aggressively recruit and retain more freshmen. The trend is occurring as college enrolment is declining nationally and competition for students is intensifying.

It's like a lamps & lights shop I pass as I drive home from the city.  It's had a 75% off sale for the entire 25 years I've lived here.

This quote from the original article highlights a consolidation of the market to the top end.  Despite applications going up, enrolments are going down.  The rich are getting richer.

At the same time, the country’s colleges and universities have experienced a pronounced increase in the number of freshmen applications received over the past 15 or so years, a trend reflected in the U.S. undergraduate population’s dramatic growth, from 16.7 million in 1996 to 20 million in 2016, according to a recent Pew Research Center report...

Yet selective colleges and universities—those that accept fewer than half of prospective students—have enjoyed a disproportionate share of that growth, receiving close to two out of every five applications despite accounting for fewer than a fifth of the country’s higher-education institutions. What’s more, the number of applications doesn’t correlate with the number of students. (The number of applications per high schooler has soared in part thanks to the Common App, which makes applying to additional schools much easier.)

And it won't get any easier as the potential student population is declining with a declining birth rate in the USA.

In fact, a gradual downturn in U.S. birth rates has led to a decrease in the country’s current high-school population (which remains four-year colleges’ primary source of students). A recent report by the National Student Clearinghouse research center underscores just how dramatically this is playing out. In spring 2019, overall postsecondary enrolment decreased by 1.7 percent, or nearly 300,000 students, from the previous spring.

(I just looked it up and the 300k decline is more than the entire population of undergraduate enrolment in Minnesota, which is only about 245k.  Minnesota churns out about 45k high school grads a year.  About half of high school grads go to community colleges and about 19% go to four-year universities, which means all the schools in Minnesota are competing for about 8.5k customers each freshman year.)

But this insight from the Newbury president in the original article may be the key to what's really going on in the Minnesota college scene.

Could anything have been done to prevent this ending? “Yes, we should’ve been doing online,” Chillo told me, alluding to the kinds of new-revenue tactics explored by many similar colleges. “Yes, we should’ve been developing a graduate program.

“Fundamentally, though,” Chillo continued, “there was no money for that investment.”

I have, believe it or not, a lot of sympathy for what's happened to UST.  UST has taken action, at least in the context of the Newbury article, that is smart - growing the schools education profile and scope.  I have no sympathy for the school or its supporters as a victims, however, as the schools really facing a challenge are the ones that are still in the MIAC.

This last quote on how quickly Newbury fell apart gives some real insight into the fragility of these institutions that seem so solid from the outside.

In recent years, the school had expanded its NCAA Division III offerings. A brand-new men’s lacrosse program, announced in 2017, had been slated to launch this past spring, with a head coach appointed last year. Many of its existing teams had been getting better and better, some making it to the New England Conference championships. This past school year’s freshman class was one of Newbury’s largest, too; the college had to hire more residence staff and rent land from a nearby college to accommodate the growth. Art exhibits, club posters, and event flyers covered the new student center’s walls. On his blog, Chillo touted Newbury’s new degrees, study-abroad programs, business partnerships, and construction projects.

Which is in large part why the closure announcement blindsided students. “When I got the email, I was like, What is happening?” said Humphries, the recent graduate. “When I sent it to my friends, in a group chat, everybody was like, What the heck? Like, how? What is going on? We were all just confused.”

Stefan felt similarly. “We were literally having our best year,” she said. “It was just on the up-and-up—and then, all of a sudden, it wasn’t.”

EDIT: One last bit of analysis that occurred to me.  While enrolments have been essentially flat in Minnesota over the last 10 years (about 8.5k potential), discounts have increased 13 points (assuming MN follows the national trend).  Tuition hikes have fallen to about 2 points a year. . Up until now, rapidly inflating tuitions (far outstripping CPI increases) have managed to grow revenue in a flat customer market and with growing discounts.   But the steep discounts and falling tuition inflation means that revenue will now stagnate while costs continue to increase.  It's crunch time.  Grow or die.

The reason the MIAC, in my best guess, said that UST was booted for sports competitiveness instead of the original reason (growing out of the league's institutional profile) was possibly because admitting the real reason, financial competitiveness and viability, cut too close to the bone.

[OzJohnnie]

Another question that occurs to me comes from the SJU About page.

80 percent of CSB/SJU students complete their degree; more than 90 percent of those graduates finish within four years. Nationally, the six-year completion rate is 65 percent of all private college students and 58 percent of public college students. (U.S. Department of Education)

I wonder what percentage of the $1.5 trillion in student debt is carried by the 40% of college attendees that never finish.  That have nothing to show for the debt they incurred.

[TheChucker]

OzJohnnie, thanks for the article link and commentary. Good stuff.

My daughter is a fresh HS grad. In her search (really our search) for potential colleges or the past year or two, I tried to steer her towards schools that were growing and thriving or at least least stable in enrollment. The thriving schools seemed to be in the deep minority. Our experience is only conjecture, but it sure seemed to be consistent with the article's point.

[hazzben]

Another question that occurs to me comes from the SJU About page.

80 percent of CSB/SJU students complete their degree; more than 90 percent of those graduates finish within four years. Nationally, the six-year completion rate is 65 percent of all private college students and 58 percent of public college students. (U.S. Department of Education)

I wonder what percentage of the $1.5 trillion in student debt is carried by the 40% of college attendees that never finish.  That have nothing to show for the debt they incurred.

I don't have time to look it up, but I've seen figures that speak to outsized number of students who carry massive debt belonging to two categories ... 1) Never Finished Degree and/or 2) attended online "For Profit" schools. The latter has been a huge problem. NPR ran a story recently on the predatory practices of For Profit schools on veterans and their G.I. Bill money. These programs are often highly suspect, offer almost no institutional support (which is significant given their demographics are students who are more likely to be 'at risk' or first generation), and have an alarming trend of going bankrupt.

I've said on here before, there's going to be a higher ed bubble burst, just like the housing market. It will actually be healthy (in terms of the market) in the longterm, but very painful.

My gut on schools that are the most vulnerable (obviously removing schools with huge endowment dollars to keep them afloat regardless):

1) Under 1.5k enrollment - especially if that enrollment is already declining
2) Undiversified Programs or poor STEM profile (strictly liberal arts, no online, no grad programs, etc.)
3) No Distinct Culture - aka, generic secular school, loosely affiliated religious profile (especially if tied to a demographically dying Mainline denomination)
4) Private - in general I assume the bubble will hit small private schools harder than small/mid-size public schools who are state subsidized
5) Tuition Dependent budget & Less Selective Admissions

Another caveat. I often wonder how far we are from NCAA/Collegiate Sports Armageddon. If something shifted with Power 5 Schools breaking from the NCAA to form their own association, possibly because they begin paying athletes in revenue sports (the pressure is building for this), the NCAA as we know it would cease to exist. So would our playoff structures. That disruption would have massive affects on the recruitment of students, especially male students.

[Gregory Sager]

Another caveat. I often wonder how far we are from NCAA/Collegiate Sports Armageddon. If something shifted with Power 5 Schools breaking from the NCAA to form their own association, possibly because they begin paying athletes in revenue sports (the pressure is building for this), the NCAA as we know it would cease to exist. So would our playoff structures. That disruption would have massive affects on the recruitment of students, especially male students.

I don't think that the D3 playoff structure would cease to exist in the event of the top of the college-sports food chain evacuating D1. I think that it would simply revert to the NAIA's pay-your-own-way model in which travel and housing costs are covered by the institutions that are participating in the playoffs and the organization only supplies the money for facility rental, game and event officials, and awards.

The NAIA consists of colleges and universities that have a lot less money on average than do their D3 peers, and yet it still manages to offer championship tournaments and meets in thirty different sports. D3 might have to pare back slightly from its current level of forty championships offered by cutting a few sports that have light participation numbers, but the NAIA proves that pay-your-own-way is still a viable model for holding national championships.

[Mr.MIAC]

Do online students drink as much light lager as those on campus? If not, maybe the big brewers are poised to lose market share...

[hazzben]

Another caveat. I often wonder how far we are from NCAA/Collegiate Sports Armageddon. If something shifted with Power 5 Schools breaking from the NCAA to form their own association, possibly because they begin paying athletes in revenue sports (the pressure is building for this), the NCAA as we know it would cease to exist. So would our playoff structures. That disruption would have massive affects on the recruitment of students, especially male students.

I don't think that the D3 playoff structure would cease to exist in the event of the top of the college-sports food chain evacuating D1. I think that it would simply revert to the NAIA's pay-your-own-way model in which travel and housing costs are covered by the institutions that are participating in the playoffs and the organization only supplies the money for facility rental, game and event officials, and awards.

The NAIA consists of colleges and universities that have a lot less money on average than do their D3 peers, and yet it still manages to offer championship tournaments and meets in thirty different sports. D3 might have to pare back slightly from its current level of forty championships offered by cutting a few sports that have light participation numbers, but the NAIA proves that pay-your-own-way is still a viable model for holding national championships.

I agree the NAIA model would be what we ended up with. But that would be the end of the D3 playoff structure as we know it (I should have written that more clearly).

Top seeds go to schools that bid the highest for hosting the game. Every round involves a bid comparison to see who hosts and who plays who. Extreme regionalization of the playoffs. Big time politics when it comes to playoff selection, etc.

You don't just take billions of dollars out of the system (NCAA basketball money is gone in this scenario) without seeing a drastic change in how things are done. There would be huge and unforeseen ripple affects. 

[Gregory Sager]

I think that the bottom line for non-aficionados and non-insiders (i.e., people who don't have thousands of d3boards.com posts like us ) would be that D3 tournaments would still be held and would still contain the same numbers of teams. That's about all of the "playoff structure" that they really care about.

[emma17]

With online shopping and online college education, what will happen with all the buildings and campuses? A move back to more green space? (Hopefully not more golf courses). 

[hazzben]

(i.e., people who don't have thousands of d3boards.com posts like us )

I'm laughing about what that probably says about us 

[Gregory Sager]

I try not to think about it too often.

[OzJohnnie]

With online shopping and online college education, what will happen with all the buildings and campuses? A move back to more green space? (Hopefully not more golf courses). 

I was thinking similarly.  Physical assets are expensive and inefficient.

I used to think that online was garbage, a lame approach to education, until I watched #1 at the University of Melbourne these last 18 months.  All lectures are offered online and she'll rewatch many as revision for tests and even watch other professors on the big subjects.  She even did one subject's final a few days ago at the kitchen table with a classmate who came over (most others are still exam hall exercises).  They got questions in a different order and didn't even get all the same questions.  Written subjects are submitted online and go through some plagiarism detection software and give students immediate feedback as to whether they have been caught cheating.  You can even send teammates' contributions in group projects through the engine to see if anyone is tanking your project.

Anyways, times they are a changing.

[emma17]

They are changing indeed and I sure love the times I get to unplug from it.
On the way up to Ontario last week we took our overnight pit stop in Virginia, MN and had dinner and cheap beer at the Saw Mill - cool roadhouse type place.

[Texas Ole]

As for beer I am a huge fan of the stouts and porters.  I have found a few coffee and chocolate ones that are killer good.  I also still drink a lot of the cheap stuff as I just enjoy a beer.  Plenty of good bourbons out there.  Angel's Envy is good.  Eagle's Rare is really good.  Oak and Eden is a Texas whiskey I am enjoying.  I will also throw out Mellow Corn.

The college discussion has been fun to read.  There will always be a place for the liberal arts college.  Some of the STEM programs are highly overrated.  The big issue is demonstrating how an education can lead to future success.  Not every career needs a STEM education.  The focus of education should be to prepare yourself for the next step in your life.  Having a large endowment builds and being less reliant on tuition gives stability, but outcomes are important.