FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[DuffMan]

St. John's did not win a championship in a fall sport. That has to be the first time in a long time since that has happened.

Thankfully, Bennie VB was able to get the reverse sweep of the UmYaYas on Saturday.
 

[MIAC23]

"a game where NCC gets a game winning touchdown in the last second just for it to be called back by a holding penalty."

That was BU in the quarterfinal last year against Susquehanna, not NCC.

No way, really?!

[CHUBBS PETERSON]

For the SJU faithful:

Sorry if I'm rehashing something previously discussed, but genuinely curious about your opinions of the blue, alternate home jersey. I know it's one of the school colors, but it hasn't really had a place in the football uniform until recently.

[Mister36]

"a game where NCC gets a game winning touchdown in the last second just for it to be called back by a holding penalty."

That was BU in the quarterfinal last year against Susquehanna, not NCC.

I'm aware!

It's just that NCC also should experience that outcome, then, the team that beat them goes to Bethel and loses 66-0, while NCC sits at home and thinks "We might not have beat them, but we sure would have done better than 66-0..."

[DuffMan]

Sorry if I'm rehashing something previously discussed, but genuinely curious about your opinions of the blue, alternate home jersey. I know it's one of the school colors, but it hasn't really had a place in the football uniform until recently.

I like it as a change of pace.  I don't think they wore them at all last year and just once this year.

[Mister36]

According to Logan Hansen, the NCC/Bethel quadrant is the "hardest quadrant in the AQ era" (since 1999).

This is because for his ratings, Bethel and NCC are two extremely highly rated teams.

[faunch]

For the SJU faithful:

Sorry if I'm rehashing something previously discussed, but genuinely curious about your opinions of the blue, alternate home jersey. I know it's one of the school colors, but it hasn't really had a place in the football uniform until recently.

I like them but I don't like red stripes on the shoulder pads that go under the numbers. Aside from that they're a solid look. The white pants with double red striping are nice.

[hazzben]

I was just talking about the alternates with a Johnnie co-worker. I like them. Unique look, but not something for more than once a season or so.

[sjujohnnie]

Listening to today's podcast, it sounds like the consensus is one and done for St John's. Can anyone let the team know in case they need motivation?

[sjujohnnie]

Don't tell them that the CFBHome Facebook page has them predicted to get to the Stagg Bowl for the first time since '03, though, as we don't want anything going to their heads! Definitely shouldn't look past anyone! Maybe if they make it, and only if/then, we could let them know that that prediction has them falling to North Central, 41-23.

[hazzben]

Some Team stats going into the playoffs for key teams in MIAC quads (plus Mount because Bethel is ignoring NCC  ).
National Rank listed in order for each team - Scoring O, Scoring D, Total O, Total D, Red Zone O, Red Zone D, Pass Eff, Pass Eff D, Rush O, Rush D, TO Margin, 1st Down O, 1st Down D, 3rd Down, 3rd Down D, 4th Down, 4th Down D

North Central: 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 6, 24, 11, 8, 25, 5, 3, 1 - Ave: 6.5
Bethel: 2, 2, 7, 6, 10, 6, 35, 6, 17, 5, 8, 2, 3, 7, 4, 27, 3 - Ave: 8.8
SJU: 3, 4, 3, 5, 11, 5, 6, 13, 92, 14, 79, 7, 11, 1, 35, 36, 49  - Ave: 22
UWRF: 10, 61, 1, 83, 43, 83, 58, 69, 19, 23, 43, 1, 80, 19, 40, 75, 19 - Ave: 42.8
Wartburg: 72, 5, 71, 32, 113, 32, 104, 31, 32, 4, 79, 55, 38, 43, 66, 10, 43 - Ave: 49 
Mount: 9, 14, 15, 48, 6, 48, 7, 11, 10, 58, 14, 48, 75, 27, 28, 2, 99 - Ave: 30.5
Wheaton: 12, 44, 23, 47, 54, 230, 9, 75, 98, 45, 68, 23, 68, 9, 70, 36, 126 - Ave: 61.2

Noteworthy:
- NCC Top 25 in every category, top 5 in 13.
- Bethel the clear number 2 statistically, and not far off NCC. Pass effeciency numbers are a bit deflated because of how often Drews take deep shots IMO.
- SJU looks like a Top 5 team, people keep sleeping on them nationally.
- UWRF's D is clearly their weakness, and the WIAC was not an offensively explosive league this year. That's a tough hurdle for a Stagg run, but it's a young unit that has improved over the year.
- Wartburg's O is the worst unit of this group by a wide margin. Their only elite categories are Scoring D and Rushing D.
- Wheaton scores points, converts 3rd downs, and bleeds pts in the redzone.
- SJU's passing offense is a great matchup for them against UWRF's leaky Pass D. Neither UWL or UWW had the passing game to exploit this.

Before running these numbers I thought SJU had a tough draw. I still do, but I honestly think they're the best team in that grouping. Bethel will have to get to NCC, and then still beat the defending champs and best team in the country on the road. If anything, this says to me Bethel potentially getting NCC in the quarterfinals is a bigger diservice than Wartburg getting all the quality in their pod. They don't have to beat every team, but they aren't statistically deserving of avoiding NCC or Mount until the Stagg, save for NPI.

[hazzben]

I saw Logan post that Wart got done a diservice, essentially treated like a 2 seed in their own quad. He might be right, but aside from NPI Wartburg just doesn't looke like a very elite 1 seed IMO given the stats above.

That said, the MIAC finds itself in 2 of the 3 toughest quadrants ever according to Logan's numbers. If we get anyone to the quarters or beyond we'll have earned it, great chance to reset the recent national narrative about the conference.

[Mister36]

Some Team stats going into the playoffs for key teams in MIAC quads (plus Mount because Bethel is ignoring NCC  ).
National Rank listed in order for each team - Scoring O, Scoring D, Total O, Total D, Red Zone O, Red Zone D, Pass Eff, Pass Eff D, Rush O, Rush D, TO Margin, 1st Down O, 1st Down D, 3rd Down, 3rd Down D, 4th Down, 4th Down D

North Central: 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 6, 24, 11, 8, 25, 5, 3, 1 - Ave: 6.5
Bethel: 2, 2, 7, 6, 10, 6, 35, 6, 17, 5, 8, 2, 3, 7, 4, 27, 3 - Ave: 8.8
SJU: 3, 4, 3, 5, 11, 5, 6, 13, 92, 14, 79, 7, 11, 1, 35, 36, 49  - Ave: 22
UWRF: 10, 61, 1, 83, 43, 83, 58, 69, 19, 23, 43, 1, 80, 19, 40, 75, 19 - Ave: 42.8
Wartburg: 72, 5, 71, 32, 113, 32, 104, 31, 32, 4, 79, 55, 38, 43, 66, 10, 43 - Ave: 49 
Mount: 9, 14, 15, 48, 6, 48, 7, 11, 10, 58, 14, 48, 75, 27, 28, 2, 99 - Ave: 30.5
Wheaton: 12, 44, 23, 47, 54, 230, 9, 75, 98, 45, 68, 23, 68, 9, 70, 36, 126 - Ave: 61.2

Noteworthy:
- NCC Top 25 in every category, top 5 in 13.
- Bethel the clear number 2 statistically, and not far off NCC. Pass effeciency numbers are a bit deflated because of how often Drews take deep shots IMO.
- SJU looks like a Top 5 team, people keep sleeping on them nationally.
- UWRF's D is clearly their weakness, and the WIAC was not an offensively explosive league this year. That's a tough hurdle for a Stagg run, but it's a young unit that has improved over the year.
- Wartburg's O is the worst unit of this group by a wide margin. Their only elite categories are Scoring D and Rushing D.
- Wheaton scores points, converts 3rd downs, and bleeds pts in the redzone.
- SJU's passing offense is a great matchup for them against UWRF's leaky Pass D. Neither UWL or UWW had the passing game to exploit this.

Before running these numbers I thought SJU had a tough draw. I still do, but I honestly think they're the best team in that grouping. Bethel will have to get to NCC, and then still beat the defending champs and best team in the country on the road. If anything, this says to me Bethel potentially getting NCC in the quarterfinals is a bigger diservice than Wartburg getting all the quality in their pod. They don't have to beat every team, but they aren't statistically deserving of avoiding NCC or Mount until the Stagg, save for NPI.

To add to this, the Hansen ratings:

NCC 1
UWRF 2
Bethel 3
.
.
Mount Union 6

So it seems the tragedy is Bethel and NCC having to face off in QF, rather than UMU and NCC in Semis.

[hazzben]

In a perfect world, we'd have objective clarity on the top 8 teams and a bracket built that way. NPI doesn't give us that, neither did the previous system.

I completely understand people complaining about NCC and Mount getting matched in the semi's. They've both been Top 2 in the polls all year and played in last years Stagg Bowl (and 2 of the last 3). That's a legit gripe. The undefeated defending national champ also having to go on the road in the semi's is dumb too. 

Bethel vs NCC in the quarters, assuming chalk holds, is a round too early as well. The biggest issue is probably that the weakest 1 and 2 seed combo statistically also got the easiest quad.

Here's the deal though, if we really think Bethel and SJU are Top 5 teams, we should expect to play top teams in the tourney at some point. If Bethel is really Top 5 or Top 3 or Top 2 (pick your metric), then we should relish the chance to prove it on the field. This is a really young team. 15 new starters IIRC at the start of the year. You get better playing elite competition. We have two good, playoff experienced teams to beat before we even get a chance to measure up against the NCC dynasty. I hope we get to see that, but until then we get to geek out over some great football and it'll all get sorted on the field. Best time of the year IMO!!

[BU5758]

I wait all year for BU's first game of the season..  Now, I have to wait 12 days for BU's first game of their anticipated run in the playoffs like last year... Doesn't get any easier waiting as you get older...But, it doesn't get any better than this.

Really appreciate all of the analysis by the BU posters....and others on the MIAC site. Thanks