FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[hazzben]

They were two deep on the one TD. Footing outside the numbers was brutal and the corner just lost his footing on the break on the skinny post. Reminded me of Rundell's long TD last week. Bad footing is advantage WR who knows where they are going with the route. But agree it was frustrating to watch and just wanted to put it away.

[BDB]

We've got 2 local teams in the quarter finals that are about 45 minutes apart.

Western Wiscy forecast for Saturday is 3 above. Naperville probably plenty cold too.

Good times. Dress warm fredfalcon!

[sjusection105]

Calm down with the hyperbole and Debbie Downer stuff......we just lost to the likely other team playing in the Stagg Bowl (North Central clearly is the best team).  The reality of D3 football is the best teams are clustered geographically and forced to play each other early in the playoffs, thus never allowing for a true 1-2-3-4 bracket.  River Falls is a once a decade team right now with Blaha and his supporting cast is very good. 

Not making any effort to run the ball throughout the season came back to haunt us.  We can't continue to throw the ball 50+ times in playoff games and expect to win.

Final point- let's have some perspective......we ended our season 10-2 with loses to two teams in the Top 5 of the country.  The last time our season ended the way we want the oldest of today's players were 2-3 yrs old, the d3 playoffs are (and always have been) a gauntlet.

Yep. If you can't control the line of scrimmage and run the ball in December the odds of a deep playoff run are greatly diminished.

[ncc_fan]

We've got 2 local teams in the quarter finals that are about 45 minutes apart.

Western Wiscy forecast for Saturday is 3 above. Naperville probably plenty cold too.

Good times. Dress warm fredfalcon!

Naperville forecast is a balmy +9°.

[robertgoulet]

Nice and warm compared to when NCC visited Bethel years ago.

[GoldandBlueBU]

Nice and warm compared to when NCC visited Bethel years ago.

Absolutely brutal day.  Made worse by the fact that BU still had grass then.  Didn't have kids yet at that point, so I was there, freezing my face off.  Today I'm older and wiser and would take the game in from home, if it were at Bethel.

[hazzben]

Nice and warm compared to when NCC visited Bethel years ago.

Absolutely brutal day.  Made worse by the fact that BU still had grass then.

That field was basically concrete. Just ask Peterson's shoulder from the previous Sat vs Wartburg. I'm glad NCC has turf, even in the cold or snow it can't be worse than that 2013 surface.

[fredfalcon]

BDB--Haven't decided whether to attend game or watch from Johnnies Bar. My forecast says 0 degrees high but negligible wind. So if I "dress warm" it may be enough.

[Pat Coleman]

BDB--Haven't decided whether to attend game or watch from Johnnies Bar. My forecast says 0 degrees high but negligible wind. So if I "dress warm" it may be enough.

Make the decision that is best for your health, sir!

[Mister36]

According to Logan Hansen: "The spread for the NCC/Bethel game is NCC -10.9. This is the lowest spread for NCC this season (last week's -18.9 is next lowest), and the lowest NCC spread in my model since the 2021 Stagg Bowl vs. UMHB (NCC +0.4)"

NCC underperformed their spread by about 10 points against LAX.

Also remember that Bethel is the last team to defeat NCC in Naperville, playoffs 2018

[Mister36]

As expected, pain on the left side of the bracket with BU in the quadrant with NCC and then a likely semifinal matchup with UMU if they get there.

Honestly I think Bethel can take Mount Union well, which speaks both to Bethel's growth and UMU maybe being a little underwhelming compared to usual this year. I just hope they get the chance.

Circling back to this now moot matchup thought - Logan Hansen also gave these projected ratings if it was UMU/Bethel in Semis:

@ MU = BU -3.7
Neutral = BU -5.7
@ BU = BU -7.7

[art76]

Word for the day: history.

Looking at who's left standing, something I said earlier, but cannot put my finger on, was along the lines that BU playing NC could be the de facto "Stagg Bowl" game, depending on your perspective of the outcome. I'm sure more will be said about the history of these two teams playing leading up to the game on Saturday, but history is history, and whose to say that more history won't be written about after this coming weekend's games? Seeing JC take down UMU in 2 OT last week was historic. Will the story line be similar if BU does in fact win over NC? Probably not, because there is not the same history between the two teams. The bounce of the ball is fickle, just ask David Geebli. History is simply the recording of the bounces. That said, I sure hope the Royals are victorious this weekend. Go Bethel!

[DuffMan]

I heard that Wayzata hired Derrin Lamker as their new head football coach.

[Pat Coleman]

I heard that Wayzata hired Derrin Lamker as their new head football coach.

That's a long commute to also coach Osseo.

(I mean, I know it's not, but still ...)

[hazzben]

Where Team stats sat nationally going into the playoffs. Once you hit playoffs these get skewed due to teams not playing or bounced early stay high, not facing 2-3 rds of top comp.
Listed in order by Logan Hansen's Predictive Rating - National Rankings: Scoring O, Scoring D, Total O, Total D, Red Zone O, Red Zone D, Pass Eff, Pass Eff D, Rush O, Rush D, TO Margin, 1st Down O, 1st Down D, 3rd Down, 3rd Down D, 4th Down, 4th Down D

#1 UWRF (LH - 56.3): 10, 61, 1, 83, 43, 83, 58, 69, 19, 23, 43, 1, 80, 19, 40, 75, 19 - Ave: 42.8
#2 North Central (LH - 55.0): 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 6, 24, 11, 8, 25, 5, 3, 1 - Ave: 6.5
#3 Bethel (LH - 46.6): 2, 2, 7, 6, 10, 6, 35, 6, 17, 5, 8, 2, 3, 7, 4, 27, 3 - Ave: 8.8
#4 Wheaton (LH - 43.3): 12, 44, 23, 47, 54, 230, 9, 75, 98, 45, 68, 23, 68, 9, 70, 36, 126 - Ave: 61.2

Noteworthy:
- UWRF and NCC flip for the first time all season. Bethel a steady #3, Wheaton keeps rising, up from #11 for LH Ratings.
- NCC was Top 25 in every category, top 5 in 13 heading into the post-season.
- Bethel the clear number 2 statistically, and not far off NCC. UWRF numbers are skewed given the WIAC slate.
- UWRF's D was clearly their weakness, and the WIAC was not an offensively explosive league this year. However, back-half D numbers would look much better for UWRF. They will face their most balanced, explosive offense this week. No one they faced in WIAC has a passing game as good as Wheaton, or the balance IMO. UWP was probably closest (I don't think UWL QB was healthy).
- All 4 teams are playing very good football, Wheaton with the biggest improvement, but also the most room to improve.
- Each team has faced at least 1 very good defense in the post-season and both moved the ball and scored.
You've basically two groupings. UWRF and NCC are essentially 1a and 1b. There's a small gap, then Bethel and Wheaton in a grouping. Home teams are clear favorites. Logan's Spreads: NCC -12, UWRF -13. This is the tightest spread Logan's system has projected for NCC since 2021 v UMHB. Weather is a major variable. River Falls will be right around 0 with low wind and low chance of snow. Naperville high of 14 with likely light snowfall. The snow is the biggest X factor IMO. Bethel will need to be able to throw the ball effectively.

Logan's Odds of making Stagg Bowl | winning title:
NCC 70% | 46%
UWRF 65% | 34%
Bethel 16% | 7.1%
Wheaton 10% | 2.9%