MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Naperick]

I am really worried about the Millikin-Elmhurst game on Saturday.  Lets be honest, Millikin is one of the best teams in the CCIW right now.  As an Elmhurst fan, I hate to admit that I had that counted as a win a few weeks ago.  It's a toss-up. 

Last 3 games for the Big Blue: 40 point win against Wheaton, close loss at home to Augustana, & a win at North Central.  They are playing very well right now.

[Naperick]

Wouldn't this have been a great year to have all 8 teams in the conference tourney?

[augie_superfan]

Well after more exciting games last night, here are my updated probabilities.  I changed my program a bit to lessen the advantage of the favorites.  It's not strictly a coin flip but closer to it than my last post.  Here is where we stand after 8 games:


Chance of #1 Seed
Augustana - 74.3%
IWU - 22.5%
Elmhurst - 2.5%

Chance of Making Conf. Tourney
Augustana - 100%
IWU - 98.5%
Elmhurst - 91.0%
NCC - 63.8%
Millikin - 20.5%
Carthage - 16.5%
Wheaton - 5.3%
NPU - 4.5%

Chance of Outright Champion - 81.8%
Avg. Wins of #1 seed - 11.2
Avg. Wins of #4 seed - 7.0

[veterancciwfan]

AndOne: Give us some of your inside information on what is happening at NCC. Nobody saw this coming from a team that was 13-1 and ranked in top 10 by this site. Good players, great coach, only loss was on road at Dickinson and 3-0 in league prior to Jan. 14th game at home vs. Augustana.

[GoPerry]

Well after more exciting games last night, here are my updated probabilities.  I changed my program a bit to lessen the advantage of the favorites.  It's not strictly a coin flip but closer to it than my last post.  Here is where we stand after 8 games:


Chance of #1 Seed
Augustana - 74.3%
IWU - 22.5%
Elmhurst - 2.5%

Chance of Making Conf. Tourney
Augustana - 100%
IWU - 98.5%
Elmhurst - 91.0%
NCC - 63.8%
Millikin - 20.5%
Carthage - 16.5%
Wheaton - 5.3%
NPU - 4.5%

Chance of Outright Champion - 81.8%
Avg. Wins of #1 seed - 11.2
Avg. Wins of #4 seed - 7.0

Thanks for this -interesting stuff.  Not sure why WC's chances would improve with lastnight's loss, but difference is negligible.

The gap between NCC over Millikin/Carthage feels wide to me with only a one game lead (and having already split with MU but with a win over Carthage ).  Of the 3, the Cardinals clearly have the toughest remaining schedule(@ Augie, @IWU, @ EC). 

Will be fun to watch anyhow - for those of us with little remaining skin in the game.

[Gregory Sager]

North Park 79
Carthage 75

Jordan Robinson: 27 pts (11-15 FG), 7 rebs
Juwan Henry: 25 pts, 6 rebs
Colin Lake: 12 pts
Michael Hutchinson: 9 rebs

Donte Logan: 18 pts, 10:3 a:to, 3 stls
Ellis Matthews: 15 pts
Cameron Van Wyk: 10 pts
Mike Stevenson: 10 pts
Mike Kjeldsen: 10 rebs

The Red Men made the Vikes work for it, but NPU found a way to pick up a huge road win last night.

The Vikings had several substantial leads in this contest, including a 14-point advantage with 17:34 to go, but the Red Men made several runs to cut the NPU lead to as little as six on two widely-separated occasions before the Park would run the lead back up again. The Vikings had the bulge at 13 (65-52) with seven minutes and change remaining, but Carthage had one more run in it, and it was an effective run. Carthage narrowed the NPU lead to two at 72-70 with 2:49 to go, but Colin Lake was fouled while attempting at trey at 1:44 and made all three free throws. North Park would have to fend off the Red Men one more time, as Carthage again cut the lead to a deuce with twelve seconds to go on a Donte Logan layup, but Lake made one of two free throws after immediately being fouled on the inbounds pass, and Carthage couldn't get off a three-point attempt in order to tie.

(Since I was calling the CC @ NPU women's game in the crackerbox, I only got to watch the last two minutes of the first half on my computer up in the broadcast perch. The women's game went into overtime, preventing me from seeing the end of the men's game, which was an aggravation -- but not nearly as much of an aggravation as I got from checking the live stats from Kenosha every few minutes and seeing that NPU lead dwindle. I muted my mic and let out a huge sigh of relief once the live stats showed that the men's game had gone final.)

Looks like Donte Logan had a great night for the Red Men. He did most of his damage in the second half, and no doubt was the spark when Carthage made each of those runs. But Jordan Robinson and Juwan Henry were tremendous last night. According to Bosko, Carthage tried to guard Robinson with three or four different players, none of whom were able to slow him down. And Logan would've no doubt had an even greater night if he hadn't had to chase Henry all around the Toolshed all night.

Carthage actually outrebounded North Park and won the turnover battle. But the shooting percentages -- 53% from the field and 44% from downtown for the Vikings, compared to 41% and 27% for the Red Men -- spelled the difference in the game, along with the fact that the Vikings got to the free-throw line ten more times than did Carthage.

Not pretty, from all accounts, but a solid road win for the Park. 

"Nobody in this league has two players as good as Juwan Henry and Jordan Robinson." -- Bosko Djurickovic

It bears repeating that one's a sophomore and one's a freshman. I can now tell people that the NPU men's basketball program is on the upswing without having to hear their snide rejoinders about tinted opticals or flavored drinks.

[Gregory Sager]

That the Titans could not beat the injury-riddled (and height-challenged) Thunder in regulation I attribute to the disturbance of the universe's equilibrium produced by Greg rooting for Wheaton.

It's not as good as having adamantine claws or the ability to climb up walls and shoot webs, but I guess that any superpower is better than none.

And as we make a turn for the truly surreal, Millikin Big Blue take down NCC in the Hangar.  Can only imagine what is going through Coach Raridon's head these days after losing 4 out of their last 5.  They need to right the ship and fast.

I think that, instead of wondering what's going through Raridon's head, one should wonder what's going through the heads of his players. He might be losing that team. If the Cards lay another egg on Saturday against Wheaton in the hangar -- a gym in which Wheaton is notorious for playing poorly year after year -- the Cards might simply mentally check out for the duration of the season. I've seen it happen to teams before.

I myself am puzzled that Gregory would (a) consider an outlier Wheatie year to make them a have-not, and (b) allow David>Goliath to take priority over the warm fuzzy feelings that would come should the Thunder finish South of the Vikings in this year's standings.

(a) Outlier year or not, Wheaton's most definitely a have-not this season. That 9-10, 2-6 record doesn't lie. (And, while we're a long way away from considering next season, Wheaton will lose three starters to graduation this May -- one of whom, Brayden Teuscher, is going to be extraordinarily hard for Mike Schauer to replace. I'm not sold on the idea of a Wheaton bounce-back in 2015-16, at least not with this current roster.)

(b) I'm pretty confident that Wheaton will finish south of the Vikings in this year's standings if NPU takes care of business against the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance next Wednesday night in the crackerbox. I'd much rather have the Park finish ahead of Wheaton by dint of their own effort in their own gym.

I am really worried about the Millikin-Elmhurst game on Saturday.  Lets be honest, Millikin is one of the best teams in the CCIW right now.  As an Elmhurst fan, I hate to admit that I had that counted as a win a few weeks ago.  It's a toss-up. 

Last 3 games for the Big Blue: 40 point win against Wheaton, close loss at home to Augustana, & a win at North Central.  They are playing very well right now.

T.J. Sims is making a big difference for MU. He had 29 points on 12-17 shooting, and was the only Big Blue player to reach double figures. Sims was the key instrument in Millikin's fending off a late North Central comeback from what had once been a 14-point second-half deficit, a comeback that had the game knotted a couple of times late. Sims had MU's two last baskets of the game. He's averaging almost 26 ppg over Millikin's last four contests. I think that Jordan Robinson is going to be the CCIW Freshman of the Year, but Sims is going to make Robinson work for it.

Wouldn't this have been a great year to have all 8 teams in the conference tourney?

Absolutely. This year they should change the name of the conference from the CCIW to the ACHL (the Anything Can Happen League).

[AndOne]

AndOne: Give us some of your inside information on what is happening at NCC. Nobody saw this coming from a team that was 13-1 and ranked in top 10 by this site. Good players, great coach, only loss was on road at Dickinson and 3-0 in league prior to Jan. 14th game at home vs. Augustana.

I've been giving this a lot of thought. NCC's recent woes have been very frustrating, and no doubt have been responsible for raising my blood pressure several points as of late. Its hard to fathom a team with as much natural talent and potential playing as poorly as the recent results indicate.
Talent is not the issue.
Here are some things that stand out to me:

* Defense-Nothing like 2-3 yrs ago or even last yr. Especially on 3 point defense, rebounding, and switching off ball screens.
* Too often playing from behind. The expansion of energy to catch up leaves little in the tank entering the stretch run.
* Inconsistency-A player will have 1 or 2 very good games, and then 1 or 2 stinkers.
* Tempo-At times charging downcourt with reckless abandon which results in careless TOs. At times tiptoeing downcourt like its covered with broken glass which results in too many missed opportunities.

[GoPerry]

And as we make a turn for the truly surreal, Millikin Big Blue take down NCC in the Hangar.  Can only imagine what is going through Coach Raridon's head these days after losing 4 out of their last 5.  They need to right the ship and fast.

I think that, instead of wondering what's going through Raridon's head, one should wonder what's going through the heads of his players. He might be losing that team. If the Cards lay another egg on Saturday against Wheaton in the hangar -- a gym in which Wheaton is notorious for playing poorly year after year --

Encouragement for AndOne....Wheaton has not won @ NCC since 2004, Joel Kolmodin's senior year.

(a) Outlier year or not, Wheaton's most definitely a have-not this season. That 9-10, 2-6 record doesn't lie. (And, while we're a long way away from considering next season, Wheaton will lose three starters to graduation this May -- one of whom, Brayden Teuscher, is going to be extraordinarily hard for Mike Schauer to replace. I'm not sold on the idea of a Wheaton bounce-back in 2015-16, at least not with this current roster.)

I am not nearly that pessimistic but as you said, discussion for next year.

(b) I'm pretty confident that Wheaton will finish south of the Vikings in this year's standings if NPU takes care of business against the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance next Wednesday night in the crackerbox. I'd much rather have the Park finish ahead of Wheaton by dint of their own effort in their own gym.

The way things are trending it may very well happen.  I can't help but think however that if Wheaton can perform more consistently game in / game out and play motivated for every game- like they have at times this season, they don't have to go quietly into the cellar.  But then playing for a conference seed and an at-large is quite different than playing to avoid last place.

[Gregory Sager]

The way things are trending it may very well happen.  I can't help but think however that if Wheaton can perform more consistently game in / game out and play motivated for every game- like they have at times this season, they don't have to go quietly into the cellar.  But then playing for a conference seed and an at-large is quite different than playing to avoid last place.

... especially when playing to avoid last place is a brand-new experience for you.

[iwu70]

NCC's rapid decline is pretty mystifying to me.  Thanks for some perspectives, AO.

Six games to go.  Seems AC, IWU and EC make the CCIW tournament, at least IMHO.  The other spot is totally up in the air at this point. 

'70

[AndOne]

It seems that the name of Garrett Gatz has been removed from the North Park basketball web site. Gatz, who had been starting, did not appear in NPU's last game. I've heard he has been dismissed from the team. The rumor at this point is [removed because of TOS violation/pc].

[Gregory Sager]

Gatz has been dismissed from the team. I will not dignify the rumor as to why he was dismissed with a yes or a no, both because the reason why Tom Slyder told Gatz to turn in his uniform is nobody's business here and because we're talking about a young man who does not deserve to have his future jeopardized by scandal-mongering innuendo of this sort.

I'm disappointed in you, Mark. You really should know better than to post crap like that here.

[iwumichigander]

Gatz has been dismissed from the team. I will not dignify the rumor as to why he was dismissed with a yes or a no, both because the reason why Tom Slyder told Gatz to turn in his uniform is nobody's business here and because we're talking about a young man who does not deserve to have his future jeopardized by scandal-mongering innuendo of this sort.

I'm disappointed in you, Mark. You really should know better than to post crap like that here.

Amen

[Mr. Ypsi]

Gatz has been dismissed from the team. I will not dignify the rumor as to why he was dismissed with a yes or a no, both because the reason why Tom Slyder told Gatz to turn in his uniform is nobody's business here and because we're talking about a young man who does not deserve to have his future jeopardized by scandal-mongering innuendo of this sort.

I'm disappointed in you, Mark. You really should know better than to post crap like that here.

Amen

Agreed.  EVEN IF it were a proven fact, it would not belong here.  But a rumor ... ?!