MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[realist]

HCG you write:  " Veltema is one of the better pure shooters I've seen at this level."

Some 09-10 results shooting % wise.

Veltema .440 %  .432 3 pt %       232 shots
Rodts     .473%   .461 3 pt %   186 shots
Campbell .453                                95 shots
Mantel    .463                               270 shots
Snikkers .432
Salo        .439

08-09:  results
Veltema  .484%   .484  3 pt. %        226 shots
Rodts      .514 %  .558  3 pt  %        146 shots

We all remember the glory shots a guy makes, but quickly forget what really happened during the games

[KnightSlappy]

Your use of standard deviation to derive probability assumes that a player's point output follows a normal distribution (this may not be true since different games have multiple factors, like foul trouble, pace of opponent, etc).  Technically, to determine if the difference in John's performance vs Alma was statistically signficant from the rest of his season, I believe that a T-test comparing the two averages (10.3 ppg and 14.5 ppg) should be used.  Frankly I don't remember exactly how to run this test but my guess is that the extremely small sample size (3 games against Alma) would eliminate any major conclusions that one could draw about Mantel not bringing his A-game against the Scots last year. 

In related news, I noticed that little brother Jake Mantel is on the Calvin JV roster, listed as a 2nd year freshman since he didn't play last year as a true freshman.  We as Calvin fans should be so lucky that four years from now we could break down his career stats like those of his often-criticized older brother.

I think this is the big kicker. In only a three game sample, the eye test is going to tell you a heckuva lot more about how someone played than the stats are going to.

WOTS is that Jake is hurt again (or at least he was a week or two ago). I'm not sure how serious it is, but this kid just can't catch a break.

[KnightSlappy]

Wouldn't "normal expectations" have been that John would perform better against weaker opponents?  

I'm not sure, but I might look into how points of "star" players are generally distributed with respect to the quality of the opponent. Maybe John goes off against Carthage because they need him to do so in order to win. Maybe they still beat Alma if Lane Waters starts at center and the ball gets spread around evenly.

You're right that I probably can't assume that he'll just score the same independent of the opponent, but I'm not sure we can assume a players point totals will always increase against worse teams and decrease against the better ones.

[GoKnights68]

HCG you write:  " Veltema is one of the better pure shooters I've seen at this level."

Some 09-10 results shooting % wise.

Veltema .440 %  .432 3 pt %       232 shots
Rodts     .473%   .461 3 pt %   186 shots
Campbell .453                                95 shots
Mantel    .463                               270 shots
Snikkers .432
Salo        .439

08-09:  results
Veltema  .484%   .484  3 pt. %        226 shots
Rodts      .514 %  .558  3 pt  %        146 shots

We all remember the glory shots a guy makes, but quickly forget what really happened during the games

Woulda like to those glory shots from him in the second half of the MIAA championship (or any part of that game for that matter)




Sorry, that was mean.  I'm done.

[Happy Calvin Guy]

HCG you write:  " Veltema is one of the better pure shooters I've seen at this level."

Some 09-10 results shooting % wise.

Veltema .440 %  .432 3 pt %       232 shots
Rodts     .473%   .461 3 pt %   186 shots
Campbell .453                                95 shots
Mantel    .463                               270 shots
Snikkers .432
Salo        .439

08-09:  results
Veltema  .484%   .484  3 pt. %        226 shots
Rodts      .514 %  .558  3 pt  %        146 shots

We all remember the glory shots a guy makes, but quickly forget what really happened during the games

I draw a couple of things from this:  I think generally the great shooters are called upon to take more shots, and therefore more tough shots.  This brings their overall shooting percentage down to something closer in line with others.  (i.e. if Matt decided to forego the toughest 50 shots he took in games last year, his shooting percentage would undoubtably be higher)  I also believe that your point is well taken that Danny Rodts is also a great shooter.  I feel that Danny has a more multi-faceted game than Matt Veltema, so perhaps we don't zero in on his shooting skills as much as we do with Matt.  Also, agreeing with Knightslappy's earlier analysis on points per shot, I think a main conclusion we can draw is that Danny needs to be more assertive and shoot more!  I'm glad to see Matt will still be part of the program this year in a leadership/coaching role, and I hope Danny develops into the leader on the court that we need.  I predict first team all-MIAA for Danny Rodts this year.

[KnightSlappy]

http://www.d3hoops.com/top25/

Hope comes in at #17

Calvin received 3 poll points.  #48t.

Calvin's non-con schedule features:

a potential matchup with ORV (#55) Heidelberg, a potential matchup with #17 Hope, a game against #5 Carthage, and a game against ORV (#28) Wheaton.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Olivet has their roster posted.  Looks like 4 new players including 2 Freshman and 2 CC transfers:

http://www.olivetcollege.edu/athletics/mbasketball/roster.php

[sflzman]

The lows being 6 against Alma, and 6 against Olivet.  In 3 games against Alma he went 6, 9, & 16 to average 10.3 ppg against them for the season.  As dominant as John was against Carthage,  and the last Hope game it is hard to understand his performances against the Scots.

John averaged 14.5 ppg for the year with a standard deviation of 5.7 points. Two of three games (66.7%) against Alma were inside of one standard deviation from the mean. We would expect that 68% percent of his games would fall within one standard deviation, so it looks like he performed pretty much as expected against Alma.

It's also interesting to note that Alma's slow down style of offense probably cost John one shot per game. (Calvin averaged 54.9 shots per game during the season, but only 49.3 average versus Alma), and John took 17.5% of the team's shots). This would add a point to his average against Alma, bringing him closer to his season average.

Well the "Carolina" offense serves it's purpose against the Calvins and Hopes of the world....we slow it down to get a 3 or a layup at the end of the shotclock and make them think they need to rush a shot....

It definately works, 2 years ago as the 8 seed playing at Hope we kept it to a 1 possesion game within the final 3 minutes......

[KnightSlappy]

Well the "Carolina" offense serves it's purpose against the Calvins and Hopes of the world....we slow it down to get a 3 or a layup at the end of the shotclock and make them think they need to rush a shot....

It definately works, 2 years ago as the 8 seed playing at Hope we kept it to a 1 possesion game within the final 3 minutes......

So what's that, 0-10 with 2 close games against Calvin and Hope in two years? I'm not sure that qualifies as "works". I guess, maybe, if the expectation is 0-10 with 0 or 1 close games then you have a point.

[oldknight]

Olivet has their roster posted.  Looks like 4 new players including 2 Freshman and 2 CC transfers:

http://www.olivetcollege.edu/athletics/mbasketball/roster.php

So Brett Konyndyk of Holland Christian found his way to Olivet? Hmm, there must be an interesting story somewhere on how that happened.

[almcguirejr]

So Brett Konyndyk of Holland Christian found his way to Olivet? Hmm, there must be an interesting story somewhere on how that happened.

He's very talented.  If he gets his head on straight he could contribute as a freshman.

[KnightSlappy]

Olivet has their roster posted.  Looks like 4 new players including 2 Freshman and 2 CC transfers:

http://www.olivetcollege.edu/athletics/mbasketball/roster.php

My gut tells me this team will win some games. I think they'd be very disappointed if they didn't finish in the top three of the league.

[realist]

Well the "Carolina" offense serves it's purpose against the Calvins and Hopes of the world....we slow it down to get a 3 or a layup at the end of the shotclock and make them think they need to rush a shot....

It definately works, 2 years ago as the 8 seed playing at Hope we kept it to a 1 possesion game within the final 3 minutes......

So what's that, 0-10 with 2 close games against Calvin and Hope in two years? I'm not sure that qualifies as "works". I guess, maybe, if the expectation is 0-10 with 0 or 1 close games then you have a point.

Well said.   Perhaps the new guy at Alma will be a bit more creative.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Olivet has their roster posted.  Looks like 4 new players including 2 Freshman and 2 CC transfers:

http://www.olivetcollege.edu/athletics/mbasketball/roster.php

My gut tells me this team will win some games. I think they'd be very disappointed if they didn't finish in the top three of the league.

For sure - but then many of us were saying that a year ago, and I 'm sure they were disappointed with last year.  Consistency from this team (beyond Mr. McClary) would go a long way toward the Comets competing for a league title.  

[realist]

HCG you write:  " Veltema is one of the better pure shooters I've seen at this level."

Some 09-10 results shooting % wise.

Veltema .440 %  .432 3 pt %       232 shots
Rodts     .473%   .461 3 pt %   186 shots
Campbell .453                                95 shots
Mantel    .463                               270 shots
Snikkers .432
Salo        .439

08-09:  results
Veltema  .484%   .484  3 pt. %        226 shots
Rodts      .514 %  .558  3 pt  %        146 shots

We all remember the glory shots a guy makes, but quickly forget what really happened during the games

I draw a couple of things from this:  I think generally the great shooters are called upon to take more shots, and therefore more tough shots.  This brings their overall shooting percentage down to something closer in line with others.  (i.e. if Matt decided to forego the toughest 50 shots he took in games last year, his shooting percentage would undoubtably be higher)  I also believe that your point is well taken that Danny Rodts is also a great shooter.  I feel that Danny has a more multi-faceted game than Matt Veltema, so perhaps we don't zero in on his shooting skills as much as we do with Matt.  Also, agreeing with Knightslappy's earlier analysis on points per shot, I think a main conclusion we can draw is that Danny needs to be more assertive and shoot more!  I'm glad to see Matt will still be part of the program this year in a leadership/coaching role, and I hope Danny develops into the leader on the court that we need.  I predict first team all-MIAA for Danny Rodts this year.

It is also possible that team Calvin would have benefited if Matt had passed a few more times instead of holding onto the ball, resulting in a tough shot, as the shot clock was running down.  I used to think that Matt was "hot', and "cold", and a "streaky" shooter, however, I now know he was just very inconsistant.  With a really bad habit of not showing up for the big games.