FB: Liberty League

[Bartman]

As far as the Mach v. IC debate on ranking:

1.Hobart played and lost by a touchdown to both Ithaca(at home but no Aidan Conrath) and Utica(at Utica with Aidan) and I would rank these teams even based on live observation.
2. Mach has a legitimate point that D3 Football rankings overweight the NJAC, in my opinion. I like to look at Hansen Ratings, and while formulaic, it has the E8 as the better conference and the NJAC and LL as equivalent if you look at the top 4 teams in each conference:

    E8.            NJAC.              LL

Cortland(15).    Chris Newport(29).  Ithaca(20)
Utica(25).        Rowan(41).          RPI(37)
Brockport(35).    Salisbury(53).      Hobart(51)
SJ Fisher(79).    Montclair ST(59).  Union(70)

While you can argue Hansen's assumptions, I personally think this meets the observation and performance records so far this year.

[JT2]

As far as the Mach v. IC debate on ranking:

1.Hobart played and lost by a touchdown to both Ithaca(at home but no Aidan Conrath) and Utica(at Utica with Aidan) and I would rank these teams even based on live observation.
2. Mach has a legitimate point that D3 Football rankings overweight the NJAC, in my opinion. I like to look at Hansen Ratings, and while formulaic, it has the E8 as the better conference and the NJAC and LL as equivalent if you look at the top 4 teams in each conference:

    E8.            NJAC.              LL

Cortland(15).    Chris Newport(29).  Ithaca(20)
Utica(25).        Rowan(41).          RPI(37)
Brockport(35).    Salisbury(53).      Hobart(51)
SJ Fisher(79).    Montclair ST(59).  Union(70)

While you can argue Hansen's assumptions, I personally think this meets the observation and performance records so far this year.

I like your quoted lines in your footnote space.

[IC798891]

I think Mach is massively overselling what The Voters think of Montclair and Salisbury.

No one thinks Montclair is a "world-beater". Exactly one voter thinks they're the 25th ranked team in the country. Meanwhile, Salisbury has dropped from 322 points in the poll to 6. If anything The Voters are jumping ship on them en masse. That two or three stragglers are either going to go down with that ship if the Gulls lose to Christopher Newport in Week 11, or prove to us they knew all along what they were doing if they win, is hardly indicative of any real groundswell of support.

And we're not ignoring some massive piece of evidence in Ithaca's favor here. This isn't like 2023, when Endicott was 4-1 and ranked behind a 3-1 Hardin Simmons team they ****ing dog-walked for 60 minutes. We're parsing varying degrees of lousiness in OOC opponents.

As for the Golden Eagles, they're stronger this year. But are they strong enough to be the third team in the Top 25 from a conference? Because they feel like the clear #3 in the conference to me.

[Machiavelli]

Ok, regardless of how and where the voters placed anyone, here is how it plays out based on 'votes received':

E8
11. Cortland
26. Utica
39. Brockport

NJAC
10. Christopher Newport
23. Rowan
38. Salisbury
40t. Montclair

LL
40t. Ithaca

NEWMAC
34. Springfield

I don't know how anyone can look at that and not see the glaring NJAC boners. 1 boner, 4 boners, it doesn't matter. Whoever DOES win the LL has a much better chance of winning in the postseason than Rowan, Salisbury or Montclair. I will die on that hill.

Since you mentioned Endicott, they'd smoke CNU. Cortland would smoke CNU. Cortland vs Endicott...that'd be a fun one. Ithaca would go at least 2-1, if not 3-0 vs. Rowan/Salisbury/Montclair. BUT...too many NJAC boners. Utica and Brockport would likely both go 3-0 against the same 3, and I think they'd both have a good chance to beat CNU as well.

[IC798891]

I don't get this optimism about the eventual LL winner, which will either be IC or RPI

The Engineers spent their OOC schedule no-showing against two teams that have been Cortland's personal punching bag in the E8 for the entire decade.

The Bombers lost to a Hopkins team that followed it up by going winless for a month and a half. But how about the 7-point win over Hobart?!?!

We've seen flashes of both those teams being dominant over meh competition since. But there's scant evidence either team is really a threat in the playoffs

[Machiavelli]

I don't get this optimism about the eventual LL winner, which will either be IC or RPI

The Engineers spent their OOC schedule no-showing against two teams that have been Cortland's personal punching bag in the E8 for the entire decade.

The Bombers lost to a Hopkins team that followed it up by going winless for a month and a half. But how about the 7-point win over Hobart?!?!

We've seen flashes of both those teams being dominant over meh competition since. But there's scant evidence either team is really a threat in the playoffs

I don't get this optimism about the eventual LL winner, which will either be IC or RPI

The Engineers spent their OOC schedule no-showing against two teams that have been Cortland's personal punching bag in the E8 for the entire decade.

The Bombers lost to a Hopkins team that followed it up by going winless for a month and a half. But how about the 7-point win over Hobart?!?!

We've seen flashes of both those teams being dominant over meh competition since. But there's scant evidence either team is really a threat in the playoffs

The evidence is historical, and it's legit. LL teams get better as the season goes on. You know it, you just like being negative nelly and fighting anything I ever throw out there. All good. I'll stick to my guns on this one. I'm pretty comfortable with it.

On the flip, Montclair and Rowan have been postseason Gods the last 2 decades.

[Machiavelli]

Because I'm procrastinating beginning my work day, I thought I'd get ahead of the next snarky question of 'what historical evidence?'. Because of the website issues, this took me way longer than I wanted, but please see below:

I didn't go ALLLL the way back, but 2014 is where I cut it off:

2014
Hobart defeated Ithaca(E8) 22-15, Johns Hopkins(24-21), then lost to Wesley

2018
RPI(L to Union in reg season 24-10) defeated Husson 38-14, Brockport 21-13, then lost to JHU

2019
Union defeated Case Western Reserve 24-21, then lost to Salisbury

2021
RPI(L to Hobart in reg season 10-9) defeated Endicott 20-14, Cortland 21-14, then lost to North Central

2022
Ithaca  defeated UMass-Dartmouth 63-20, Springfield 31-20, then lost to North Central

2023
Ithaca(L's reg season to JHU 27-17 and Cortland 38-28) defeated Springfield 21-7, then lost to Randolph-Macon
Union(L to Ithaca in reg season 17-9) defeated Delaware Valley, then lost to Johns Hopkins

I included both Montclair and Rowan in the history above(disclaimer: there is none).

If anyone thinks a LL winner cannot win games in the postseason(and Rowan and Montclair might have a better chance), you're just being a stubborn putz.

[Machiavelli]

As procrastination continues, I'll take it 1 step further because it's POSSIBLE the LL rep is 8-2 or even 7-3 if RPI beats Ithaca and loses to Union. So a LL team that isn't 1 or 0 losses making it to the post-season could still play another Northeast team based on seeding. So here's some non-NCAA playoff postseason history:

RPI
2025 - Reg Season lost to Utica 41-14, Ithaca 24-23 and Union 28-21
Defeated St. John Fisher 35-24

2023 - Reg Season lost to Ithaca 20-17, Hobart 31-21 and Union 13-7
Defeated Widener 49-21

2022 - Reg Season lost to Carnegie Mellon 10-7, SJF 3-0 and Ithaca 13-10
Defeated Morrisville St 10-6

2016 - Reg Season lost to Alfred 33-17, SLU 20-14, Merchant Marine 16-13, WPI 19-7 and Springfield 24-7(what a gross season)
Defeated SUNY-Maritime 38-6

Ithaca
2017 - Reg Season lost to Alfred 20-17, Brockport 31-0 and RPI 27-14
Defeated Salisbury 27-17

Hobart
2025 - Reg Season lost to Alfred 28-23, Brockport 14-10, Ithaca 13-7, RPI 36-10 and Union 33-16
Defeated SUNY-Maritime 42-14

2021 - Reg Season lost to Ithaca 28-21 and Union 27-20
Defeated Westminster 21-3

2019 - Reg Season lost to Union 23-7 and Ithaca 34-0
Defeated Cortland 30-10

Rowan
2025 - Reg Season tied Case Western, Lost to CNU 49-41 and Salisbury 31-28
Defeated Utica 26-20

Montclair St.
.............<still nothing>



All of this to say, a LL team with a few losses in the regular season is normal and there is evidence that LL teams with a few losses are still better by the end of the year than other Region 1-2 conferences. So THAT is where my 'optimism' for the postseason comes from, and it solidifies my feeling about the NJAC boners.

[Jonny Utah]

I will dive into the poll disucssion:

I never really care or pay attention to the polls because for the most part the playoff seedings and bids go the way I think they will and not the way the poll indicates they will (for the most part).  But I do wonder a few things-

1.  Where would Ithaca be if they beat JHU in that first game?  A preseason RV team like Ithaca beating a #4 ranked team puts them where.....?  Probably #15 to #20?  And now where would they be?  #8 to #12 I bet.  But this is the issue.  Teams NEVER fall down just because a team they beat early (JHU at #4) ends up .500 or worse (Assuming Ithaca wins the rest of their games).  And I know they lost the game and thats really all we have. 

2.  D1 FBS has 4 power conferences and more top level crossover games than d3.  D3 has 1 power conference and 15 other conferences that have good to great teams at the top.  That in itself is the issue imo and why we have an NJAC issue with the poll in d3. 

3.  Preseason rankings have a trickle down or up effect for the poll the rest of the season.  This is one of the reasons why some argue that polls should start in later weeks than in week 1 or the preseason.  This has been discussed as to why d3 or whomever makes their poll, but it most certainly is different than a poll that would start in week 5 (which correlates to my point #2 above).

[Bartman]

Mach,
    Nice procrastination research. While it doesn't apply to every season, I do agree that the LL has been a strong opponent in the playoffs/post season and very often punch above their "rating" . This season seems to be a bit more Jekyl/Hyde for the top four teams, and either RPI or Ithaca could surprise or disappoint this year in the NCAA playoffs, but I do think they will be very competitive.  I am also watching Hobart grow and mature and feel they will give someone all they can handle in an ECAC game this year.
The last "NY State Bowl" 30-10 win by Hobart against Cortland was my favorite non NCAA playoff game( we will have that Cup forever ).
However in the NJAC defense, if you go further in the way back machine , I remember  Rowan cleaning our clock in the second round in 2004 42-14 when they really were the beast of the East. 

[Machiavelli]

Look ya'll, like Special Agent Utah said, I don't REALLY care about the polls that much, and I like to stir up some conversation. I'm not saying a LL team should be ranked or anything. Just seeing some other conferences over represented(and it happens every freaking year) makes me think it's worth a comment and some discussion. And maybe removing some inappropriate boners.

Per Bartman's comment...Of course this doesn't hold true EVERY year. Opponent matters, of course. And a 7-3 LL winner is gonna get a sh!t matchup more than likely. But an 8-2 RPI/Ithaca might get a decent matchup. A 9-1 Ithaca beating Cortland should get a great matchup. I watched RPI vs. Utica. That score looks like dog poop. But I can all but guarantee if they play 10 times, RPI might actually beat them 7 times. It wasn't an overmatched thing like a score grazing monkey might translate it to. I didn't see Brockport so I can't speak to that one. But some level of football IQ, which most of us have, tells us our top teams CAN compete in the postseason and they have historically.

Beast of the East Rowan no longer applies. Nor does Delaware Valley. Wesley is gone. Salisbury has been good, but it's obvious they are not great this year. Pollsters love those gross unis though and are hanging on to their pre-season f-ups. Meanwhile, they had very little worry dropping Mount Union aggressively. I still stick to Mount Union beating 8 of the 10-25 ranked teams. We'll know their fate in 2 weeks I guess. Makes for some fun conversation. And I love when some people drop in with their ears covered and eyes closed saying 'LALALALALALAALALALALAALALALALA'. I'm a fan and have faith in our teams. Until we go a decade of suck, I'll keep my 'optimism'.

[Bartman]

After last week's 3-1 record (unfortunately I picked Union over Ithaca), my season record is 33-6 on the liberty League season. I think this means Bartman is now tied with Mach , so every week is critical. The only game that could generate a realistic upset is the Centennial Cup between the Yellowjackets and the Pumpkinheads, which will be a rare Halloween Party Orange Out at the Boz.     


St. Lawrence.  10    RPI.          45.                     
Union           73    Hilbert.        7               
Rochester.    17    Hobart            35 
Ithaca          63      Buffalo State  10

Happy Halloween

[Jonny Utah]

Look ya'll, like Special Agent Utah said, I don't REALLY care about the polls that much, and I like to stir up some conversation. I'm not saying a LL team should be ranked or anything. Just seeing some other conferences over represented(and it happens every freaking year) makes me think it's worth a comment and some discussion. And maybe removing some inappropriate boners.

Per Bartman's comment...Of course this doesn't hold true EVERY year. Opponent matters, of course. And a 7-3 LL winner is gonna get a sh!t matchup more than likely. But an 8-2 RPI/Ithaca might get a decent matchup. A 9-1 Ithaca beating Cortland should get a great matchup. I watched RPI vs. Utica. That score looks like dog poop. But I can all but guarantee if they play 10 times, RPI might actually beat them 7 times. It wasn't an overmatched thing like a score grazing monkey might translate it to. I didn't see Brockport so I can't speak to that one. But some level of football IQ, which most of us have, tells us our top teams CAN compete in the postseason and they have historically.

Beast of the East Rowan no longer applies. Nor does Delaware Valley. Wesley is gone. Salisbury has been good, but it's obvious they are not great this year. Pollsters love those gross unis though and are hanging on to their pre-season f-ups. Meanwhile, they had very little worry dropping Mount Union aggressively. I still stick to Mount Union beating 8 of the 10-25 ranked teams. We'll know their fate in 2 weeks I guess. Makes for some fun conversation. And I love when some people drop in with their ears covered and eyes closed saying 'LALALALALALAALALALALAALALALALA'. I'm a fan and have faith in our teams. Until we go a decade of suck, I'll keep my 'optimism'.

Let's not forget the E8/LL crossover may have an impact on the LL rankings as well.  The LL now only has one chance to play an OCC game so you aren't seeing the Endicott/Springfield games that we once did OCC.  I don't think Endicott beats the top four of the LL more than 5/10 times if they played them. 

And I will say this about the top 4 LL teams and why I think Ithaca and RPI are the most dangerous of them regardless of how they have played each other so far. 

K. White from RPI is the best RB in the leage from a system standpoint.  He is a piece of their offensive puzzle that is tough to stop.  Taylor from Hobart is great, but I just don't like how Hobart uses him. It's almost like they have to piecemeal concepts together to get him touches in different ways, including run scheme.  White is a system back where RPI runs 3-4 concepts over and over with RPO and PA and they run them well.  The more they run that zone scheme the better White (and RPI gets). 

Ithaca also has their QB/WR combo which is just eyeball on another level than anyone else.  Add in their run game which seems to adjust well towards the end of games including Reed who runs as well. Ithaca and RPI dominate the league in rushing yards, and you gotta run if you want to win (defensive aside)

Union's QB might be the smartest QB in the league and I like his poise.  But they have no RB?  I've only seen one Union game with some clips so I haven't really gotten the answer there so maybe I'm wrong.  And almost the opposite of Hobart, Union's offense is maybe too predictible?  Sheehan is 7th in the league in rushes (from not up to date LL stats from the LL website though).  And what is the  deal with Markowski?  Is he hurt or did he get hurt?

[Machiavelli]

So yeah, after a 4-0 week, I'm now at 33-6. Bartman is picking crazy amounts of games up at 63-6...LOL.

Before I do picks, I like your breakdown, JU. I think you understand where I'm simply trying to drive a conversation. I think all top 4 LL teams have the late season 'compete' in them. It's a LL trait. Maybe it's a 'smarter school' thing where the teams actually learn and grow throughout the year, maybe more than some others. E8 tends to get worse as the season goes on, aside from Cortland, which is kinda weird. I always attributed it to toughness, but that's not something we can tangibly lean on, but it's probably a bit of both. Anyway...

Mach's easiest pick week of the season

Aside from some major upset, I think this is a slam dunk kinda 4-0 week. I'm sure IC might not think so, just to fill the antagonist role, but short and sweet and boring:

SLU - 3
RPI - 56
I want a shutout.

Union - 75
Hilbert - 0
It's a much needed tune up game for Union. Offense moved the ball nicely against Ithaca and then they just stalled or dropped the ball on the carpet. I'd be surprised if Hilbert crosses the 50.

Rochester - 13
Hobart - 42
Rochester threw 7 picks, 3 returned for TDs, last week against RPI. Just a wild stat. RPI was actually struggling a big prior to that. But I think Taylor runs wild.

Ithaca - 72
Buff State - 0
Ithaca keeps rolling.

Ithaca and RPI will be gearing up and hopefully will get to rest some guys ahead of the big matchup next week.

Outside the LL, given my recent comments, I am kind of interested to see how the Rowan/CNU game goes. I am not going to make a prediction because I look at it this way:

1. If CNU wins, it's expected and my thoughts on Rowan are pretty accurate.
2. If Rowan wins, it doesn't do much for me about Rowan, because I'm just not sure if CNU is actually THAT good. The Susquehanna win is impressive on paper, but they only beat Union by 6, so is it really?

In any case, if Rowan wins, CNU will drop from 10 to 15, and Rowan will be ranked 12. Montclair will benefit and move up to 21. NJAC boners 4-LIFE!

[Bartman]

"So yeah, after a 4-0 week, I'm now at 33-6. Bartman is picking crazy amounts of games up at 63-6...LOL."

Haha, thanks Mach for pointing out typo. 33-6, not 63-6.