FB: Liberty League

[pumkinattack]

I'll take a stab at predictions, although, there's not an in depth personnel analysis here, which really should be included:
    W   L         W   L
Alfred    6   4      Hobart    8   1
Utica    2   8      RPI   9   0
Ithaca    8   2      WPI   7   3
Hartwick    7   2      MM   2   8
SJF    8   2      Sus   3   7
Norwich    2   8      Roch   6   4
Springfield 3   7      Union   4   5
            SLU   0   10

So one can point to the Bart/SLU game and question Bart, but I would once again refer to this (check the month of october):

http://www.d3football.com/schoolpage/Union/2005

Not sure if a third E8 team gets in in this scenario.  Depends on a lot of other things.  I have no idea how the playoffs would roll because Hobart has often not played the corresponding seed (e.g. 1-8, 2-7) including last year and clearly that's important to who moves on from the first round.  Hobart has drawn Bridgewater St., John Carroll, Curry, Rowan, Cortland and SJF in the first round this decade. 

[lewdogg11]

I'll take a stab at predictions, although, there's not an in depth personnel analysis here, which really should be included:
    W   L         W   L
Alfred    6   4      Hobart    8   1
Utica    2   8      RPI   9   0
Ithaca    8   2      WPI   7   3
Hartwick    7   2      MM   2   8
SJF    8   2      Sus   3   7
Norwich    2   8      Roch   6   4
Springfield 3   7      Union   4   5
            SLU   0   10

So one can point to the Bart/SLU game and question Bart, but I would once again refer to this (check the month of october):

http://www.d3football.com/schoolpage/Union/2005

Not sure if a third E8 team gets in in this scenario.  Depends on a lot of other things.  I have no idea how the playoffs would roll because Hobart has often not played the corresponding seed (e.g. 1-8, 2-7) including last year and clearly that's important to who moves on from the first round.  Hobart has drawn Bridgewater St., John Carroll, Curry, Rowan, Cortland and SJF in the first round this decade. 

pumkin attack, you keep making posts that look like this and we'll have to demote you to the NEFC room.

[pumkinattack]

You're right.  Although imagine if there were a poster top 25. 

Would LL posters go over there and dominate the NEFC board to pad their resumes?  Would it be like the invasion of the WCW back in the late 1990's?  Just a mass raid by Gro, Lew, RT, Frank Rossi, Garnet, U89 TGP and RT Rev?     

On a football note, does the WPI win over Union signify that they won't fall back later in the season?  Last year they gave Susquehanna their only win (Sus is probably better this year) and dropped most or all of their LL games.  Do they still have Boudreau the LB?   

[Jonny Utah]

You're right.  Although imagine if there were a poster top 25. 

Would LL posters go over there and dominate the NEFC board to pad their resumes?  Would it be like the invasion of the WCW back in the late 1990's?  Just a mass raid by Gro, Lew, RT, Frank Rossi, Garnet, U89 TGP and RT Rev?     

On a football note, does the WPI win over Union signify that they won't fall back later in the season?  Last year they gave Susquehanna their only win (Sus is probably better this year) and dropped most or all of their LL games.  Do they still have Boudreau the LB?   

Whoa whoa whoa PA......

way to much insight into ranking these teams.  Lets not start actually looking into what players are good or not.  Next thing you know Ill actually have to go see some games!


_{The Liberty League float enters the d3football.com parade....}

[mattvsmith]

Yea I didnt think about this either.  If WPI beats Hobart, then Hobart wont go and vice versa.  Im predicting WPI to beat them and go.

WPI ?


Or do you mean RPI?

[Frank Rossi]

And you cant include Curry into this, or you would also have to include LLs horrible perfermormance last year.  You simply cant do it.

Ummm...the hell I can't, JU -- Voters are still holding the 2007 playoff performance against the LL right now (see last week's conference rankings for further evidence).  Thus, if it's good for the goose...

And their defense did a decent job in 1/3 of their games this year wouldnt you say?  Beating top 25 team?

One game does not a season make.  There's this term:  "anomaly" -- and currently, that performance against SJF (which, by the way, wasn't exactly a defensive tour de force in and of itself) was an anomaly compared to its prior five games.

Frank, why dont you predict how each team will do at the end of the season, and I will do the same.  We will also rank all the teams right now.

When I get some time later today, I will.  I have to catch lunch at Dan Marino's Steakhouse in a bit, though -- so I'll channel Dan and see if he can give me football prediction insight.

[Jonny Utah]

And you cant include Curry into this, or you would also have to include LLs horrible perfermormance last year.  You simply cant do it.

Ummm...the hell I can't, JU -- Voters are still holding the 2007 playoff performance against the LL right now (see last week's conference rankings for further evidence).  Thus, if it's good for the goose...

And their defense did a decent job in 1/3 of their games this year wouldnt you say?  Beating top 25 team?

One game does not a season make.  There's this term:  "anomaly" -- and currently, that performance against SJF (which, by the way, wasn't exactly a defensive tour de force in and of itself) was an anomaly compared to its prior five games.

Frank, why dont you predict how each team will do at the end of the season, and I will do the same.  We will also rank all the teams right now.

When I get some time later today, I will.  I have to catch lunch at Dan Marino's Steakhouse in a bit, though -- so I'll channel Dan and see if he can give me football prediction insight.

Yea but which is it then? If you want to include last years performences, then you must have RPI nad Hobart real low like the pollsters? 

[Frank Rossi]

My main point here is that its easy for guys like Frank (and all of us including me) to go out there, say who is good, who is bad, who deserves what ranking, but not actually go out on a limb and predict what team is going to do what.  Thats why I want Frank to predict how the rest of upstate football will turn out the rest of the season.

I'll take this as an insult, JU, since I make predictions and comments concerning playoff scenarios for weeks every season in this very forum.  And my only point is that the E8 is capitulating under its own weight this year -- and someone who wants to tout Hartwick so badly might be giving away their conference inclinations way too much.  As I asked, and you've failed to explain so far, what have Ithaca's and SJF's performances thus far told us about the E8 to date?  Your thesis is that Hartwick's win makes the E8 a stronger conference from top to bottom -- the problem is that if the top begins to cave in, then how strong can the whole entity REALLY be?  The LL has no love this year, so don't try to throw in a big comparison of the E8 to the LL right now -- I want you to defend the E8 on its OWN merits if you're going to really make your assertions.

[Pat Coleman]

Ummm...the hell I can't, JU -- Voters are still holding the 2007 playoff performance against the LL right now (see last week's conference rankings for further evidence).  Thus, if it's good for the goose...

Voters don't determine the conference rankings, just Keith and I do. I think Keith did an excellent job laying out the 2008 resume for each conference and the LL with a .500 record against like-minded and inferior competition is smack dab in the middle of Division III.

[Frank Rossi]

And you cant include Curry into this, or you would also have to include LLs horrible perfermormance last year.  You simply cant do it.

Ummm...the hell I can't, JU -- Voters are still holding the 2007 playoff performance against the LL right now (see last week's conference rankings for further evidence).  Thus, if it's good for the goose...

And their defense did a decent job in 1/3 of their games this year wouldnt you say?  Beating top 25 team?

One game does not a season make.  There's this term:  "anomaly" -- and currently, that performance against SJF (which, by the way, wasn't exactly a defensive tour de force in and of itself) was an anomaly compared to its prior five games.

Frank, why dont you predict how each team will do at the end of the season, and I will do the same.  We will also rank all the teams right now.

When I get some time later today, I will.  I have to catch lunch at Dan Marino's Steakhouse in a bit, though -- so I'll channel Dan and see if he can give me football prediction insight.

Yea but which is it then? If you want to include last years performences, then you must have RPI nad Hobart real low like the pollsters? 

Last I checked, RPI and Hobart are undefeated, and both have played good teams now (Hobart moreso).  Hartwick is not.  I use last year as a check to see if a team that schedules a double-bye so early in the season has some claim to a trend in the positive or not.  RPI and Hobart so far have proven themselves as deserving of some reconsideration for a couple weeks now.  Hartwick lost to Ithaca badly and beat SJF -- you want the world to suddenly go the way of the Cage after one win?  Win two or three more consecutive, Hartwick, and my hat will be off to you perhaps at that time (assuming the 45 points per game on defense continues to come down).

[Frank Rossi]

Ummm...the hell I can't, JU -- Voters are still holding the 2007 playoff performance against the LL right now (see last week's conference rankings for further evidence).  Thus, if it's good for the goose...

Voters don't determine the conference rankings, just Keith and I do. I think Keith did an excellent job laying out the 2008 resume for each conference and the LL with a .500 record against like-minded and inferior competition is smack dab in the middle of Division III.

Well, let's take it through the logic:

1) The Preseason Conference Rankings were determined based on 2007 performances, including playoff performances;

2) There have been only about 20 OOC games played across eight teams in the LL and similar ratios for the other conferences;

3) The Preseason Conference Rankings were the launching point for the Updated Conference Rankings from last week;

4) Not much additional information existed for conference movements since the original determination of the Preseason Conference Rankings; and thus

5) 2007 Playoff performances still play a factor in the present determination of the Updated Conference Rankings, since new available information allowed only minor variations from the Preseason Conference Rankings.

I'm not insulting Keith's methodology -- I'm just explaining my understanding of it and why 2007 playoffs play a factor in those rankings.  Keith did not start with a blank slate from my understanding.  His main task was to make corrections based on any major trends he saw in OOC play since the beginning of the season.

[Pat Coleman]

I don't think the MAC would consider moving from 15th to 9th a minor variation. Nor would the SCAC moving from 18th to 15th. Nor would the IIAC moving from 10th to 16th. Not even the UMAC moving from deep in last place (27th) to 25th.

Your conference didn't move, no. But others that are performing on a significantly different level than 2007 did move appropriately.

[Jonny Utah]

My main point here is that its easy for guys like Frank (and all of us including me) to go out there, say who is good, who is bad, who deserves what ranking, but not actually go out on a limb and predict what team is going to do what.  Thats why I want Frank to predict how the rest of upstate football will turn out the rest of the season.

I'll take this as an insult, JU, since I make predictions and comments concerning playoff scenarios for weeks every season in this very forum.  And my only point is that the E8 is capitulating under its own weight this year -- and someone who wants to tout Hartwick so badly might be giving away their conference inclinations way too much.  As I asked, and you've failed to explain so far, what have Ithaca's and SJF's performances thus far told us about the E8 to date?  Your thesis is that Hartwick's win makes the E8 a stronger conference from top to bottom -- the problem is that if the top begins to cave in, then how strong can the whole entity REALLY be?  The LL has no love this year, so don't try to throw in a big comparison of the E8 to the LL right now -- I want you to defend the E8 on its OWN merits if you're going to really make your assertions.

Im not insulting you.  Im including everyone in this.  And all Im saying is that not a lot of people say things like "This team is better than that team" or "I think this team will beat that team" and then give reasons.  Its different than saying if this team wins x amount of games, they should make the playoffs because team b has a weaker sos" 

Here is what IC and SJFs performances mean to date.

Ithaca
-beat 2 MAC teams.  One of those MAC teams, Lycoming, has a winning record in the MAC, and the other, Kings, was down 31-7 and from what I hear was similar to how they did against Del Val.
-They played a 3-6 half with SJF and then got blown out
-They put 69 points on Hartwick and gave up 42 points
-Last year: Lost to Hartwick and SJF, then won the rest of their games (beating good Cortland and Alfred teams) and then giving Mt. Union their 2nd best game in the last 2 years. (take last year for what its worth in regards to returning players etc...)

SJF
-Gave Mt. Union its 3rd or 4th closest game in the last 2 years.
-had 2 semi-unimpressive wins against Buff St. and Rochester (the rochester game is closer every year)
-Smoked Ithaca
-Lost to hartwick
Last year:Rolled through the regular season (excluding one loss to Hartwick) then smoked an NEFC and LL team, then got somked by MUC.

What does this mean on its own?  Nothing.  You can only compare them to other teams in the east.

Ask yourself.  Would Ithaca smoke Curry?  Why would they?  Curry smoked Hartwick last year, and they got beaten by SJF in pretty much the same manner.  In my mind, that doesnt seperate Curry that much from Ithaca, RPI, Hartwick, or Hobart this year.

[Jonny Utah]

And you cant include Curry into this, or you would also have to include LLs horrible perfermormance last year.  You simply cant do it.

Ummm...the hell I can't, JU -- Voters are still holding the 2007 playoff performance against the LL right now (see last week's conference rankings for further evidence).  Thus, if it's good for the goose...

And their defense did a decent job in 1/3 of their games this year wouldnt you say?  Beating top 25 team?

One game does not a season make.  There's this term:  "anomaly" -- and currently, that performance against SJF (which, by the way, wasn't exactly a defensive tour de force in and of itself) was an anomaly compared to its prior five games.

Frank, why dont you predict how each team will do at the end of the season, and I will do the same.  We will also rank all the teams right now.

When I get some time later today, I will.  I have to catch lunch at Dan Marino's Steakhouse in a bit, though -- so I'll channel Dan and see if he can give me football prediction insight.

Yea but which is it then? If you want to include last years performences, then you must have RPI nad Hobart real low like the pollsters? 

Last I checked, RPI and Hobart are undefeated, and both have played good teams now (Hobart moreso).  Hartwick is not.  I use last year as a check to see if a team that schedules a double-bye so early in the season has some claim to a trend in the positive or not.  RPI and Hobart so far have proven themselves as deserving of some reconsideration for a couple weeks now.  Hartwick lost to Ithaca badly and beat SJF -- you want the world to suddenly go the way of the Cage after one win?  Win two or three more consecutive, Hartwick, and my hat will be off to you perhaps at that time (assuming the 45 points per game on defense continues to come down).

I guess Im just not suprised that the LL is ranked so low this year and you are. 

So when I see each weeks d3football.com polls come out, I look at them and pretty much agree with what the pollsters have put up there for numbers.  You have not.  That doesn't mean you are wrong, but I want to make sure that you are telling me that JU and the pollsters think one way, and Frank Rossi thinks another way.

" I use last year as a check to see if a team that schedules a double-bye so early in the season has some claim to a trend in the positive or not."

really?

[Knightstalker]

KS actually thinks that when the season is over the MAC may be the strongest conf in the East this season.  Mostly a gut feeling.