WBB: Landmark Conference

[scottiedawg]

Observed number of Landmark bids over 10,000 sims
1 team -> 38.4% of sims
2 teams -> 61.5%
3 teams -> 0.00%

Catholic and Elizabethtown do not have an At-Large chance. They would have to win the Landmark tournament.

Susquehanna definitely has an At-Large chance.  They likely need to get to the Landmark finals. (but don't have to win it)

[deiscanton]

The NCAA DIII Women's Basketball Committee is now releasing official daily NPI summary reports up through the end of conference tournament play on Sunday, March 1, 2026. 

Today's NPI summary report covering games played through Wednesday, February 18 can be found at:

http://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/48854

Here are the official NPI rankings and values of the Top 4 Landmark Conference women's basketball teams as of this morning, according to the NCAA NPI summary report:

1.)  Scranton-- #5 nationally in NPI-- 65.181-- "Lock" for the field.
2.)  Susquehanna-- #37 nationally in NPI-- 58.904-- "Bubble" team-- currently getting at-large bid #18 if selections were done today.
3.)  Catholic-- #60 nationally in NPI-- 56.829
4.)  Elizabethtown-- #63 nationally in NPI-- 56.747

These are the only 4 Landmark Conference women's basketball teams with NPI values above 54, and thus, carrying a quality win bonus. 

D3Datacast projections currently have the Landmark Conference getting 1.88 bids in women's basketball, with Susquehanna the most likely candidate for an at-large if Scranton wins the Landmark tournament.

In order for the Landmark to have a smidgeon of a chance at 3 bids, either Catholic or Elizabethtown would have to win the Landmark Tournament as a bid thief, and even then, it would be more likely either Catholic or Elizabethtown would steal the at-large bid from Susquehanna to give it to Scranton-- rather than getting the Landmark a second at-large bid.  Scranton is a lock for the NCAA field at #5 in NPI right now even if the Lady Royals suffered a major upset in the Landmark Tournament.

It would have to start with Catholic defeating Scranton this Saturday before the Landmark Tournament begins for any chance of the Landmark getting 2 at-large bids as well as the AQ.

Not to answer for Scottiedawg, but I do not see the Landmark getting 3 bids this year on the women's side.

[saratoga]

Thank you very much to both of you for the great summary of possibilities.
Personally, I hope Susquehanna gets a chance at the tournament as they've never been there & they have a nice group of kids that have played together for years.