Great Lakes Region

sac · February 21, 2007, 06:46:48 PM

Thought we could start a region room to discuss the rankings, etc.

Great Lakes Region
1. Lake Erie 23-2 19-1
2. Wooster 22-3 17-2
3. John Carroll 17-8 16-6
4. Hope 21-3 14-3
5. Ohio Northern 19-6 14-6
6. Wittenberg 21-4 16-4

smedindy · February 21, 2007, 07:35:59 PM

Ah, what a fine mess the NCAA has gotten themselves into. Arguably the second or third best team is #6 and in danger of not making the field, while arguably the weakest of those six is #1.

sac · February 21, 2007, 09:45:15 PM

Final: Otterbein 52, Ohio Northern 51. Last second shot by OTT's Ousely goes in. The Cards advance to take on Capital for round three Friday night.

This will have a big impact on next weeks secret rankings.

ChicagoHopeNut · February 21, 2007, 09:48:50 PM

Quote from: sac on February 21, 2007, 09:45:15 PM
Final: Otterbein 52, Ohio Northern 51. Last second shot by OTT's Ousely goes in. The Cards advance to take on Capital for round three Friday night.

This will have a big impact on next weeks secret rankings.

Secrets, secrets are no fun...

I think it will be very interesting to see where these 6 teams end up in the tourney, where they play, and against whom.

kiltedbryan · February 21, 2007, 09:49:27 PM

Quote from: sac on February 21, 2007, 09:45:15 PM
Final: Otterbein 52, Ohio Northern 51. Last second shot by OTT's Ousely goes in. The Cards advance to take on Capital for round three Friday night.

This will have a big impact on next weeks secret rankings.

Namely, the impact of helping the NCAC Pool C and hurting ONU's chances of even being invited to the dance. What a fall for ONU. After starting the season 11-1, including wins over Wittenberg and Wooster, they end the season 8-6 and are in serious Pool C danger.

sac · February 21, 2007, 09:53:35 PM

I think they are done

kiltedbryan · February 21, 2007, 09:59:24 PM

Sac,

You're probably right. David argued on the NCAC board that Wittenberg probably can't get a C bid either. We could be looking at only the four AQ bids making it from this entire region: Lake Erie, Wooster, Hope, and John Carroll. Those are also the only four that are solid "if not As, then Cs" in the whole region.

sac · February 21, 2007, 10:02:29 PM

Well losing in the conference final is better than losing in a quarterfinal. Semi-Final conference tournament losers rarely get C's. I think Witt's in a lot better shape after tonight. They probably only have to worry if someone other than JCU wins the OAC tournament. Capital can't be far off the regional rankings.

kiltedbryan · February 21, 2007, 11:00:53 PM

Great Lakes Region (Adjusted through Wed. games)

Team Overall In-Region (%) QoWI (May be missing changes in opp.'s win % levels)

1. Lake Erie 23-2 19-1 (.950) 10.600 (Hosts Hilbert Fri.- AMCC Semis)
2. Wooster 23-3 18-2 (.900) 10.000 (Hosts Wabash Fri.- NCAC semis
3. John Carroll 18-8 17-6 (.739) 10.130 (Plays B-W Fri. @ Capital- OAC semis)
4. Hope 22-3 15-3 (.833) 9.667 (Hosts Adrian Fri.- MIAA semis)
5. Ohio Northern 19-7 14-7 (.667) 9.619 (lost to Otterbein in OAC quarters)
6. Wittenberg 22-4 17-4 (.810) 9.476 (Plays OWU Fri.- NCAC semis)
Capital 17-8 17-8 (.680) 9.520 (Hosts Otterbein Fri.- OAC semis)
Baldwin-Wallace 18-8 15-6 (.714) 9.381 (Plays JCU Fri. @ Capital- OAC semis)
Westminster 18-7 16-3 (.842) 9.737 (Hosts Grove City Thurs.- PrAC semis)

Edit: Added matchups; fixed Wittenberg's QoWI; Added Westminster, per David's post below.

sac · February 21, 2007, 11:05:42 PM

Looking at that........if everyone wins who's supposed to, we might not get any Great Lakes Pool C's. $:-\$

A Capital loss in the next round drops everyone's qowi by 4pts as they drop below .667........that would hurt any OAC's teams chances.

kiltedbryan · February 21, 2007, 11:26:03 PM

Yes. I think Wittenberg, Capital, and Baldwin-Wallace all have to plan on winning the Pool A bid to make the tournament. Witt's QoWI really hurts them, and a win over OWU (+13) coupled with a loss to Wooster (+7) only raises their QoWI to 9.523. If Capital loses, it's 9.435. Plus, going 1-1 lowers their in-region winning percentage to 18-5 (.783)- still good, but not incredible.

wooscotsfan · February 22, 2007, 12:09:59 AM

Quote from: scotsbrod on February 21, 2007, 11:26:03 PM
Yes. I think Wittenberg, Capital, and Baldwin-Wallace all have to plan on winning the Pool A bid to make the tournament. Witt's QoWI really hurts them, and a win over OWU (+13) coupled with a loss to Wooster (+7) only raises their QoWI to 9.523. If Capital loses, it's 9.435. Plus, going 1-1 lowers their in-region winning percentage to 18-5 (.783)- still good, but not incredible.

scotsbrod and sac - I agree with both of you that the Great Lakes region probably won't get any Pool C bids this year unless Lake Erie, Wooster, John Carroll or Hope fail to win a Pool A bid.

As smedindy noted, the current Great Lakes Region rankings show why the QoWI is such a miserable system. My guess is that #6 Wittenberg would beat the pants off #1 Lake Erie on a neutral floor by 20 points or more....yet the Tigers are at risk of not even making the dance because the stupid QoWI methodology rewards teams like Lake Erie for beating up on all the cupcakes in the AMCC conference.

Last year, Witt beat Lake Erie by 36 points in the first round of the NCAA tourney and I like to see that matchup again (same result likely) but the NCAA selection committee probably will prevent that scenario.

As David's excellent analysis (QoWI list) on the Pool C board demonstrates, the 19 Pool C bids will likely go to teams that have a QoWI of 9.70 or higher

kiltedbryan · February 22, 2007, 12:16:24 AM

Quote from: wooscotsfan on February 22, 2007, 12:09:59 AM
Last year, Witt beat Lake Erie by 36 points in the first round of the NCAA tourney and I like to see that matchup again (same result likely) but the NCAA selection committee probably will prevent that scenario.

I think this year the Lake Erie-Wittenberg matchup would be closer. Witt is not quite the final-four bound team it was last year, and Lake Erie is probably somewhat better this year than they were last year.

That said, I entirely agree with you that the other GL regionally ranked teams would probably all beat Lake Erie. Erie would probably be lucky to go 1-4 in a round robin against them. They will need to beat someone in the NCAAs to be given national credibility.

David Collinge · February 22, 2007, 12:41:53 AM

ONU is done. Mark it down.

Don't forget about Westminster (PA) in this discussion. They're at 9.737 on QoWI, and have an in-region win % of .842. They're in a Pool B conference, but it looks like they might miss out on a B bid, which makes them eligible for a C. As of this moment, I think they're ahead of ONU and quite close to Witt--and they can win out and still be a 'C' candidate (unlike the other teams, who are only 'C' candidates if they lose again.)

imderekpoe · February 22, 2007, 12:48:10 AM

Quote from: scotsbrod on February 21, 2007, 11:00:53 PM
Great Lakes Region (Adjusted through Wed. games)

Team Overall In-Region (%) QoWI (May be missing changes in opp.'s win % levels)

1. Lake Erie 23-2 19-1 (.950) 10.600 (Hosts Hilbert Fri.- AMCC Semis)
2. Wooster 23-3 18-2 (.900) 10.000 (Hosts Wabash Fri.- NCAC semis
3. John Carroll 18-8 17-6 (.739) 10.130 (Plays B-W Fri. @ Capital- OAC semis)
4. Hope 22-3 15-3 (.833) 9.667 (Hosts Adrian Fri.- MIAA semis)
5. Ohio Northern 19-7 14-7 (.667) 9.619 (lost to Otterbein in OAC quarters)
6. Wittenberg 22-4 17-4 (.810) 9.476 (Plays OWU Fri.- NCAC semis)
Capital 17-8 17-8 (.680) 9.520 (Hosts Otterbein Fri.- OAC semis)
Baldwin-Wallace 18-8 15-6 (.714) 9.381 (Plays JCU Fri. @ Capital- OAC semis)

Edit: Added Friday matchups; fixed Wittenberg's QoWI.

I think that Wooster's QOWI went up to 10.1 with Calvin's win, which raised their in-region record to .667. Hope's must have gone up as well, but I haven't done those calculations.