BB: General Mid-East Region talk

[Bishopleftiesdad]

If the OAC or HCAC get 2 teams into the regional it will be a crime if they get sent to different regionals when they did not do that with Marietta and Heidelberg or Christopher Newport and Shenandoah from the south last year. All 4 teams were in the top 10 yet got stuck in the same regionals. I don't think an unrated school should be rewarded with avoiding their conference winner.

I agree but the NCAA doesn't always care about parity of the regions or fairness. They care about how much it costs and what they can do to avoid paying airfare. They were better about it last year, we will see if they revert to form.

[EttaFan1]

Strangely Last year...

Wabash and Wooster from the NCAC were sent to different regionals.  Wabash to Memphis and Wooster to Marietta.  Momentary episode of stupidity.
Salisbury and Frostburg State from the CAC were sent to different regionals (though they are BOTH technically in different regions - so it is probably not a great example).  Frostburg came to Marietta and Salisbury came from somewhere else (MC played them BOTH). 

I would like to see a situation where if two teams like Marietta and 'Berg were ranked as highly as they were a year ago go to two seperate regionals.  That's not going to be the case this year, as Mount Union and BW-while having good seasons to date-are not top ten teams.

However, I think it will boil down to how many teams are in the mideast regional (6 vs. 8) and how many teams do other close proximity regionals have?  Will the central be 6 teams?  The south is almost assuredly 6 (no lights at the host stadium).  New York and Mid Atlantic?

DePauw could get sent to Millington (433 Miles) or Whitewater, WI (280 miles)
Mount Union could get sent to Newport News, Farmingdale, NY or Lakewood NJ and be within the 500 mile limit.
Anderson or Franklin could go to either Millington or Whitewater.
BW could go to Whitewater, the others are on the outside edge of Too far
Adrian could go to White water as well.

Marietta won't get shipped out because they are the host school.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Strangely Last year...

Wabash and Wooster from the NCAC were sent to different regionals.  Wabash to Memphis and Wooster to Marietta.
Salisbury and Frostburg State from the CAC were sent to different regionals (though they are BOTH technically in different regions - so it is probably not a great example).  Frostburg came to Marietta and Salisbury came from somewhere else (MC played them BOTH). 

I would like to see a situation where if two teams like Marietta and 'Berg were ranked as highly as they were a year ago go to two seperate regionals.  That's not going to be the case this year, as Mount Union and BW-while having good seasons to date-are not top ten teams.

However, I think it will boil down to how many teams are in the mideast regional (6 vs. 8) and how many teams do other close proximity regionals have?  Will the central be 6 teams?  The south is almost assuredly 6 (no lights at the host stadium).  New York and Mid Atlantic?

DePauw could get sent to Millington (433 Miles) or Whitewater, WI (280 miles)
Mount Union could get sent to Newport News, Farmingdale, NY or Lakewood NJ and be within the 500 mile limit.
Anderson or Franklin could go to either Millington or Whitewater.
BW could go to Whitewater, the others are on the outside edge of Too far
Adrian could go to White water as well.

Marietta won't get shipped out because they are the host school.

Wooster did not make the regionals last year. In the short time I have been following the NCAC and D3 baseball I cannot remember the NCAC getting a Pool C bid. Historically there are too many weak teams in the conference. Trading Earlham for DePauw should go a good way in changing that.

[EttaFan1]

Right.  2010 and 2011 ran together on me.  Remember Marietta and Wooster playing the first losers bracket game on Day two in 2010....A big suprise to all who were following the tournament. 

Last year was

Marietta
'Berg
Adrian
Franklin
Frostburg State
Altoona
Case Western Reserve.

Duh.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Do any mideast or NCAC historians remember the last time the NCAC got a Pool C bid?

[EttaFan1]

2007 owu and Wooster. Wooster was the pool c

[OshDude]

If the OAC or HCAC get 2 teams into the regional it will be a crime if they get sent to different regionals when they did not do that with Marietta and Heidelberg or Christopher Newport and Shenandoah from the south last year. All 4 teams were in the top 10 yet got stuck in the same regionals. I don't think an unrated school should be rewarded with avoiding their conference winner.

I agree but the NCAA doesn't always care about parity of the regions or fairness. They care about how much it costs and what they can do to avoid paying airfare. They were better about it last year, we will see if they revert to form.

I asked the national selection chair about that. His answer will run in Around the Nation next week.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

If the OAC or HCAC get 2 teams into the regional it will be a crime if they get sent to different regionals when they did not do that with Marietta and Heidelberg or Christopher Newport and Shenandoah from the south last year. All 4 teams were in the top 10 yet got stuck in the same regionals. I don't think an unrated school should be rewarded with avoiding their conference winner.

I agree but the NCAA doesn't always care about parity of the regions or fairness. They care about how much it costs and what they can do to avoid paying airfare. They were better about it last year, we will see if they revert to form.

I asked the national selection chair about that. His answer will run in Around the Nation next week.

I am looking forward to that article. I always enjoy the Around the Nation articles.

[OshDude]

If the OAC or HCAC get 2 teams into the regional it will be a crime if they get sent to different regionals when they did not do that with Marietta and Heidelberg or Christopher Newport and Shenandoah from the south last year. All 4 teams were in the top 10 yet got stuck in the same regionals. I don't think an unrated school should be rewarded with avoiding their conference winner.

I agree but the NCAA doesn't always care about parity of the regions or fairness. They care about how much it costs and what they can do to avoid paying airfare. They were better about it last year, we will see if they revert to form.

I asked the national selection chair about that. His answer will run in Around the Nation next week.

I am looking forward to that article. I always enjoy the Around the Nation articles.

Thank you. Now that I think of it, we actually talked about everything you mention. Based on your quoted views of the process (those views are seemingly frequent and widely held, by the way), his response to those complaints – if not complaints, then at least presuppositions – may surprise you.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Great, I hope to be enlightened in a good way. My anticipation for this article just bumped up a few notches.

[EttaFan1]

From the "Pool C" Prediction thread in National Topics, with TONS of credit to poster JohnnyU for providing the data and comments from others for corrections to the data.....

Assuming the Top rated RPI teams WIN the Pool A bid and the top two RPI's amongst pool B teams are the Pool B teams, here is a list of the top 25 remaining RPI's for the Pool C candidates;

   Team   Region   Conf   RPI
1   Trinity   NE   NESCAC   .620
2   Johns Hopkins   MA   CC   .619
3   Ramapo   MA   NJAC   .618
4   Bowdoin   NE   NESCAC   .615
5   E. Conn St.   NE   LEC   .610
6   Concordia (Ill)   MW   NATH   .605
7   UW- La Crosse   MW   WIAC   .595
8   Trinity (TX)   W   SCAC   .593
9   Kean   MA   NJAC   .592
10   Shenandoah   S   USAC   .588
11   Neuman   MA   CSAC   .587
12   Whitworth   W   NWC   .582
13   DeSales   MA   MACF   .578
14   St. John's   MW   MIAC   .575
15   UW- Whitewater   MW   WIAC   .574
16   Mount Union   ME   OAC   .570
17   Chicago   c   IND   .569
18   Pac Lutheran   W   NWC   .564
19   IWU   C   CCIW   .559
20   Catholic   S   Land   .559
21   Rowan   MA   NJAC   .557
22   St. John Fisher   NY   E8   .556
23   Coe   C   IIAC   .554
24   Baldwin Wallace   ME   OAC   .554
25   Mass-Boston   NE   LEC   .552
26   North Central (Ill)   C   CCIW   .552
27   Southern Maine   NE   LEC   .550
28   Rose Hulman   ME   HCAC   .547
29   Rhodes   S   SCAC   .547
30   Texas-Dallas   W   ASC   .546


Mount Union is squarely on the bubble right now.  BW and RHIT have some work to do to improve the resume.  None can afford another loss in the regular season without hurting their chances at an at large bid. 

I would guess a team or two from the Mid Atlantic region would be headed this direction, particularly if it is an 8 team tournament.  It would not be out of the question to see someone head in from the Central or Midwest if it is an 8 team tournament as well. 

Candidates to come in would be within 500 miles according to past practices and could include:  Shenendoah, Johns Hopkins, Nueman (PA), Rowan (499 miles), DeSales (PA), Concordia, ILL.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

 first regional rankings are out.
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d3/regional_

Mideast

Marietta (OAC)
Wash and Jeff (PAC)
Depauw (NCAC)
Adrian (MIAA)
Mount Union (PAC)
Anderson (HCAC)
Rose-Hulman (HCAC)

[EttaFan1]

That looks pretty good to me.

I would say that the four teams who are locks to make the regional are Marietta, DePauw, Adrian and w&j. They are probably the four who can blowing in the conference tournament and still get a bid.

Looking nationwide at those 16 pool c bids, Mount Union has a very good chance to make it in but they HAVE TO finish the regular season strongly and likely finish no worse than second in the oac tourney. They have to avoid bad losses against Wilmington and muskingum. A split with Washington and Jefferson would be very beneficial as well. From a pool c perspective that is almost as big as the two oac series.

The two two heartland teams are interesting. I Don't know if there is enough room for two hcac teams in the field.

Still look for this to be an 8 team field.  The winner of the amcc (Altoona, Berhend, etc.) will be shipped in. Perhaps a shenendoah or a frostburg state, Montclair state, Rowan or even piedmont.

[EttaFan1]

Here are the top 25 Estimated Pool C candidates (for which there are 16 spots).  This assumes the top teams in the conference are the Pool A representatives.  The Pool B representatives are Ithaca and Washington U. 

Rank     Team    Region win%  SOS   RPI   Region   Conf   Pool
1   Montclair State   .808   .583   .639   MA   NJAC   C
2   Rowan   .697   .571   .603   MA   NJAC   C
3   Eastern Connecticut   .679   .575   .601   NE   LEC   C
4   St. John Fisher   .750   .545   .596   NY   E8   C
5   Ramapo   .692   .564   .596   MA   NJAC   C
6   Chicago   .633   .582   .595   C   UAA   C
7   Southern Maine   .618   .587   .595   NE   LEC   C
8   Alvernia   .731   .549   .595   MA   MACC   C
9   Amherst   .769   .536   .594   NE   NESCAC   C
10   Neumann   .667   .570   .594   MA   CSAC   C
11   Shenandoah   .743   .542   .592   S   USAC   C
12   Bowdoin   .600   .580   .585   NE   NESCAC   C
13   Concordia (Ill.)   .737   .531   .583   MW   NATHC   C
14   Emory   .703   .538   .579   S   UAA   C
15   UW-Whitewater   .629   .559   .577   MW   WIAC   C
16   William Paterson   .667   .546   .576   MA   NJAC   C
17   Johns Hopkins   .625   .557   .574   MA   CC   C
18   Huntingdon   .667   .542   .573   S   GSAC   C
19   Millsaps   .639   .550   .572   S   SCAC   C
20   Bates   .593   .565   .572   NE   NESCAC   C
21   St. John's   .742   .515   .572   MW   MIAC   C
22   Washington College   .684   .533   .571   MA   CC   C
23   Trinity (Texas)   .795   .496   .571   W   SCAC   C
24   North Park   .727   .518   .570   C   CCIW   C
25   DePauw   .732   .515   .569   ME   NCAC   C

If I had to guess, DePauw will not make it after losing to Wooster in the NCAC tourney.

Mount Union will not make it in without winning the OAC tournament.  They would be 28th on this list.

Case Western is #42 on this list....They are likley out.

Heidelberg is the next highest team from the region at #51, they will not make it in without winning the OAC tournament. 

In fact, If I had to guess, I would say the next regional rankings this Thursday will look like this:

1.  Marietta (OAC)
2.  W&J (PrAC
3.  Adrian (MIAA)
4.  Franklin/Rose Hulman (HCAC)
5.  Rose Hulman/Franklin (HCAC)
6.  DePauw (NCAC)
7.  Wooster (NCAC Champs, Pool A)

Mount Union will likely drop out having lost three of their last four games.

Marietta, W&J and Adrian are probably locks for the regional regardless of what happens in the conference tournaments.

[motorman]

EttaFan,

I have to disagree with you on the regional rankings. Wooster and Heidelberg have identical records with virtually identical SOS numbers, but the closest thing Wooster has to a quality non conference win was over a depleted Marietta team due to suspensions in Florida. When they played them up here, it was no contest. I don't think just winning the NCAC tournament should get them in the regional rankings. Heidelberg has victories over top 25 ranked Adrian and Montclair State in addition to handily beating Wooster head to head.