FB: Southern Athletic Association

[MCScots2013]

As a general fan of D3 football, it's frustrating the University seems to not care much about the product on the field.  I hope that changes.

As a Maryville guy, I get "Oh, where's that?" or "Is that a small school?" because the name recognition is limited. I'm sure it's the same with 99% of the rest of the Division. The one school that doesn't have that problem? Sewanee. A better Sewanee elevates the entire South for D3.

[tigerguy]

Man - sure feels like Trinity starts slow in almost every game this year. They usually flip the switch, like today, but I'd sure like to see them dominate from start to finish in one of these final games. Hopefully we get some of our DBs back over the next few weeks

[awadelewis]

As a general fan of D3 football, it's frustrating the University seems to not care much about the product on the field.  I hope that changes.

There are times where I think that might also be part of the problem at Rhodes.  They seem to have developed the "just don't make us look too bad" mindset that's prevailed on The Mountain for ages about football. Like us, Rhodes is able to put good D3 product on the field in other sports.  Both schools should be more competitive on the football field as well.

I'm hoping that the rather lopsided defeats we're seeing this season doesn't mess with the recruiting efforts that the young guys on our coaching staff have got to do to improve the defense.

[Ralph Turner]

If Murvul gets the Pool A, might we see 4 Texas teams in the playoffs? HSU, UMHB, TLU & Trinity?

[Ron Boerger]

If Murvul gets the Pool A, might we see 4 Texas teams in the playoffs? HSU, UMHB, TLU & Trinity?

A two-loss UMHB is (edit: not assured of) unlikely to get a bid since they have so few D3 wins to counter the losses, so the best chance for this scenario is if the Cru beat HSU.  After yesterday that seems more likely.

Trinity as well has to defeat two teams that prior to yesterday seemed to present little challenge.  But whether or not Maryville gets the autobid, they're in with two wins.

After Hendrix lost to Rhodes, you'd have to say TLU should win the SCAC 1v2 game and their bid. 

[Ron Boerger]

And, if they can't defeat HSU, UMHB would very much want Maryville or Trinity to lose, since if the Celts and Trinity win out that would take away an at-large bid. 

[The Third Division]

Tony K seriously let Old Man Jenkins wipe his a** in Valhalla Stadium!!!??

[Patrick Coleman]

Tony K seriously let Old Man Jenkins wipe his a** in Valhalla Stadium!!!??

Definitely puzzled by this comment.

[Hawks88]

So, if Maryville(currently #94 in NPI) and Huntingdon(#60) both win out, would they be matched up in the first round regardless of seeds? If they stick to seeds, I don't know if either has any chance to get into that 25 to 32 seed range to get a home game.

[Ron Boerger]

So, if Maryville(currently #94 in NPI) and Huntingdon(#60) both win out, would they be matched up in the first round regardless of seeds? If they stick to seeds, I don't know if either has any chance to get into that 25 to 32 seed range to get a home game.

This would have been a great question for this week's D3football.com podcast!

[Hawks88]

So, if Maryville(currently #94 in NPI) and Huntingdon(#60) both win out, would they be matched up in the first round regardless of seeds? If they stick to seeds, I don't know if either has any chance to get into that 25 to 32 seed range to get a home game.

This would have been a great question for this week's D3football.com podcast!

A day late and a dollar short, I guess. 

[MCScots2013]

So, if Maryville(currently #94 in NPI) and Huntingdon(#60) both win out, would they be matched up in the first round regardless of seeds? If they stick to seeds, I don't know if either has any chance to get into that 25 to 32 seed range to get a home game.

Maryville has Southwestern and Millsaps to end the year.  If Millsaps beats Berry this week and then loses at Maryville, I don't think that gives us enough to host.  I haven't been high on Millsaps this year since they really haven't played anyone aside from Trinity (sorry, Hendrix and Belhaven), but they might have the magic this year.  The comeback against Centre looks like they got past the Colonels at the right time.  I've watched a couple quarters post-Maryville game and they are much, much better.

If Maryville and Trinity AND 3 other Texas teams make the tournament has posed above, could we see the following?
-Maryville vs. ODAC champ (possibly a rematch at Macon or at HSC)
-Trinity vs #2 ASC team pending Week 11 (intra-Texas travel helps the last three scenarios)
-#1 ASC vs. TLU
-Huntingdon @ WashU (little less than 600 miles)
-Huntingdon @ UMHB (has happened before)
-Maryville @ WashU (good story line since Coach Fox went to WashU)


EDIT: I need to rethink this.  WashU is in line for a first round bye and the winner of UMHB/HSU might, too.  HSU is currently #9 NPI.  If WashU and ASC winner gets a bye, Huntingdon-Maryville and Trinity-TLU look like possibilities for Round 1.  ODAC has options through the NE corridor.

[Ron Boerger]

The UMHB-HSU winner almost assuredly gets a first-round bye (HSU currently 8th, UMHB 24th).  In fact if UMHB wins they might both get one which probably sets up TLU at Trinity if the Tigers win out.

A simulation of UMHB, Maryville, and Trinity out winning puts the Cru at 20th and the Cowboys at 23rd (Trinity at 29th and Maryville 39th).  The Cru losing makes HSU 6, Trinity 29, Maryville 39, UMHB 42 (and out).  It could take an unexpected result or two by the lower projected AQ/at-large winners to get UMHB in which is certainly possible.

[Ron Boerger]

I'm behind, but let's review last week's (largely unexpected!) results and the predictions for this week:

Hansen Ratings:

• Millsaps 38.6, @Southwestern 24.7 (MC 81.4% to win)
• Sewanee 1.9, @Trinity 49.1 (TU 99.8%)
• Centre 13.8, @Berry 28.5 (BC 82.7%)
• Hendrix 42.7, @Rhodes 24.9 (HC 87.4%) non-conference

SP+:.

• Millsaps 37.4, @Southwestern 18.2
• Sewanee 1.9, @Trinity 51.0
• Centre 13.6, @Berry 32.9
• Hendrix 43.2, @Rhodes 16.8 non-conference

Should be a pretty mundane week in the SAA.  I'll be surprised if Rhodes stays as close as Hansen thinks (though they were within 23-20 of Southwestern after three before giving up 21 unanswered) and it will be interesting to see what Centre does coming off their shellacking of Sewanee - they seem to run up the score on inferior teams and lose fairly close games to better ones.  Overall I like SP+ better this week.

Actual results:

• Millsaps 59, @Southwestern 21
• Sewanee 17, @Trinity 76
• Centre 28, @Berry 14
• Hendrix 17, @Rhodes 24

Pretty fair to say we had one (or one and a half) games turn out as expected.  Nobody foresaw Centre giving Berry much of a challenge, Rhodes getting a win against a team that was formerly 5-2 was equally unexpected, and while it was expected that Trinity would beat Sewanee, expecting them to outscore the visitors (edit) 62-0 after trailing 17-14 (also unexpected) given the team's offensive challenges was not on anyone's radar.  Oh, and that 76-17 final had never happened before in Division III football history.

So what do we take from this for next week?

• Maryville is in the driver's seat for the SAA bid.  Two wins, they're in.  One loss, they're out (barring a scenario where nobody ends up with only one conference loss)
• Millsaps can tie for the SAA championship by beating Maryville next week (and Berry this week) but can only get the SAA bid if Trinity loses a game.  Their NPI is too low to qualify for an at-large bid.
• Trinity has to win out and hope Maryville doesn't to get the SAA bid.  Their NPI with two wins probably qualifies them for an at-large bid if they win out (but bid thieves could ruin that scenario; any additional PLU, McMurry, and/or TLU losses would continue to drive down their NPI).

This week's predictions:

Hansen Ratings:

• Southwestern 18.7, @Maryville 37.7 (MC 88.7% to win)
• Rhodes 35.5, @Sewanee 35.4 (pick 'em)
• Berry 26.4, @Millsaps 27.6 (MC 52.6% to win)
• Trinity 27.4, @Centre 18.9 (TU 70.8% to win)

SP+:

• Southwestern 20.8, @Maryville 36.0
• Rhodes 27.0, @Sewanee 33.5
• Berry 28.5, @Millsaps 26.0
• Trinity 31.5, @Centre 17.9

My thoughts, worth exactly what you paid for them:

• Maryville shouldn't have an issue with the Pirates.
• Was last week's Rhodes performance a fluke or the start of a trend?  This is a rivalry game and often you throw the records out, only in this case, they're the same...
• If Millsaps plays (or *can play*, given last week's injury) their best QB instead of trying to stick with a guy who had no passing yardage for 85% of the game, they should beat Berry so that next week they can play for all the marbles.
• If Trinity gave up 17 to Sewanee last week, I'll be surprised if they hold the Colonels under 20 as both ratings predict.