BB: Top Teams in West Region

Ralph Turner · April 19, 2025, 02:38:26 AM

Speculations about travel orphans and the playoffs...

I can see ETBU being sent to Millsaps along with Rhodes and Belhaven.

No flights!

Ron Boerger · April 21, 2025, 09:59:08 AM

It was a good week for many of the top teams in the region as NPI updates through games of 4/20 show improvement:

5. La Verne (26-5) 62.295 - no change
15. Trinity(TX) (30-7) 59.375 - up from 19
16. CMS (26-8) 59.252 - up from 20
32. Concordia(TX) (28-7) 57.606 - up from 39
34. ETBU (22-9) 57.491 - up from 37
42. McMurry (28-9) 57.071 - up from 47
45. Cal Lutheran (24-9) 56.973 - down from 36
50. Pomona-Pitzer (21-11) 56.702 - up from 54
56. Redlands (24-12) 56.197 - down from 55
88. Puget Sound (19-12) 54.171 - up from 109

After a 3-2 week, UMHB fell from 95 to 113.

DickWhitman · April 21, 2025, 12:39:22 PM

Barring complete meltdowns, La Verne and Trinity should be in position to host a regional, correct? Is there any way the SCIAC would get 2 regionals if CMS were to jump Trinity by a few spots? Seems like it would be tough to make so many teams travel to SoCal.

Ralph Turner · April 21, 2025, 01:57:45 PM

As of this 04/20, McM is in; Cal Lu is out.

Thus I see La Verne hosting an SCIAC Pool C, the NWC Pool A, and a fly-in (McM? as a Region 10 Pool C).

I see TUTX hosting ETBU, a SCAC Pool C and a SCIAC Pool C fly-in.

At bid #21 out of 23 bids this week, McM needs to sweep Centenary and possibly go no worse than 2-2 in the tourney to feel good about a Pool C bid.

I hope the NCAA will fly 3 teams in the region vs. only the NWC Pool A.

DickWhitman · April 21, 2025, 06:27:47 PM

So looking at the SCIAC schedule, CMS looks to have an easy path to sealing a bid with Caltech and Cal Lu remaining. PP look to have a great shot at controlling their destiny if they can sweep Oxy and win the Cal Lu series. Redlands probably needs to either sweep La Verne or win the SCIAC. PP and Redlands will likely face off in the SCIAC "play in" game and the winner will be at a huge disadvantage for the second game.

How likely is it for McM to pull off the sweep? The Texas teams really came on strong in the second half. Makes for some exciting post-season tournaments!

Ron Boerger · April 21, 2025, 07:54:51 PM

Quote from: DickWhitman on April 21, 2025, 06:27:47 PMHow likely is it for McM to pull off the sweep? The Texas teams really came on strong in the second half. Makes for some exciting post-season tournaments!

Centenary is unusually average this year; run-ruled 2 of the 3 losses to Trinity, lost all three to both TLU and Concordia (who also also run ruled them twice) - their SCAC wins have come against bottom feeders for the most part. McMurry gets them at home so it shouldn't be much of a stretch for them to get all three.

Ralph Turner · April 21, 2025, 11:40:43 PM

After running the NPI numbers tonight, I am more pessimistic on Region 10 outcomes for Pool C.

SCIAC - I believe ULV and CMS are locks, but Cal Lu, PP or Redlands need to win the tourney. Maybe only 1 Pool C bid

SCAC - Trinity is in. CTX needs to go 2-1 vs St Thomas and at least 1-2 in the conference tourney. McMurry needs to sweep Centenary and then go at least 2-2 in the tourney to get a Pool C. St Thomas must win the tourney. Maybe only 1 Pool C bid.

ASC- ETBU can get a Pool C bid if they lose to someone, but I do not see that happening. Whose year is it to host post-season tourneys this year in round 1? Men or Women? Anyway, I see ETBU men going on the road, regardless. I doubt a Pool C bid.

NWC - Whomever, but I certainly do not look forward to catching Whomever University in the regional. No Pool C bid this year.

That might mean 2 fly-ins

Ron Boerger · April 26, 2025, 03:09:49 PM

UMHB surprises ETBU, taking both halves of yesterday's DH, and is up 3-0 through 4 in the third game of four.

DickWhitman · April 26, 2025, 11:39:49 PM

So what does losing three out of four in this series do to their chances of making the tournament?

Ralph Turner · April 27, 2025, 09:52:10 AM

I think ETBU must earn the Pool A.
Let's see the NPI after today.

Bmo · April 27, 2025, 07:08:49 PM

The bubble seems massive right now. Many teams in the top 50 have picked up losses this week. I hope the NCAA increases the cadence of NPI report releases. Once a week seems a little light.

Ralph Turner · April 27, 2025, 08:09:22 PM

The other thing is the damage sustained in the postseason tourneys.

Bmo · April 28, 2025, 01:14:36 PM

With the new NPI rankings out, I think it's safe to say there are two cardinal rules for navigating NPI. (1) Don't lose games. (2) If you take a loss, don't lose it to a bottom-tier NPI team.

This really seems to impact region X, where the top and mid-tier teams can get spring break games against high-quality out-of-region teams, but the lower tiers typically can't. No upper or mid-tier squad is likely to spend the money and travel to schedule a team that is likely to drag down their NPI, and in some cases, beat them.

I'm sure this is stating the obvious, but seeing how this is managed will be interesting.

Ralph Turner · April 28, 2025, 02:09:13 PM

Copy-and-pasted from Ron Boerger on the Playoffs board

NPI updated thru 4/27:

6. La Verne (was 5) Pool A
12. Trinity (15) Pool A
21. CMS (16)
25. Concordia (32)
33. McMurry (42)
38. P-P (50)
The bubble begins at #45.
______________
50. CLU (45)
51. ETBU (34) Pool A
57. Redlands (56)
78. UMHB (113)
91. UPS (88) Pool A

I see UPS and McMurry being flown to SoCal and P-P being flown to San Antonio.

My best guess at the brackets would be UPS vs LaVerne and McM at CMS

ETBU at Trinity and P-P versus CTX.