2015 South Atlantic Region

lastguyoffthebench · October 20, 2015, 09:41:27 AM

South Atlantic Prediction

1 Kean (win over MSU and RUN)
2 Montclair State University (win over RUC)
3 Christopher Newport University (loss to Wesley)
4 Salisbury University (draw vs Marymount, win over MW)
5 Maryville College (win and draw this week)
6 Oglethorpe University (win and draw)
7 Stockton University (win over Rowan)
8 Rowan
9 TCNJ (win over RUC)
10 Lynchburg or Emory

lastguyoffthebench · October 21, 2015, 09:20:41 AM

York with a quiet 6-0-1 run last 7 and currently first place in the CAC with home games against bottom feeder Southern Virginia and mid-table St. Mary's...

The overvalued match of the day is Salisbury at CNU...

Rowan travels to Kean

Mid-Atlantic Fan · October 21, 2015, 10:05:57 AM

Does York have any chance of being ranked this year if they keep up this pace? 6 losses is a lot but they play a tough schedule. Any thoughts? I am curious because Camden also has 6 losses so it would be a toss up between the two but I see Camden losing again before York does.

lastguyoffthebench · October 21, 2015, 10:29:45 AM

Ranked regionally? Possibly. Ranked through NSCAA or D3Soccer, no. York will get another crack at CNU and/or Salisbury, and Rutgers-Camden will have plenty of opportunities vs regionally ranked teams if they make the NJAC playoffs.

We will find out today if Salisbury is ranked. I'd guess they are on the bubble with their SOS. We, on the forum, believe the Gulls to be overvalued, so let's see what the data represents...

Mid-Atlantic Fan · October 21, 2015, 10:56:33 AM

How do the NJAC playoffs work? Will Camden make the cut off? If it's top 6 then yes but if it's top 5 they will cut it close.

SCHOOL     CPTS     CONF     OVERALL
MONTCLAIR      18     6-1     14-2
STOCKTON     16     5-1-1 13-3-1
KEAN     15     5-1     14-2
RUTGERS-NEWARK   13     4-2-1     13-4-1
RUTGERS-CAMDEN   12     4-3     9-6-1
ROWAN     9     3-3     12-4
TCNJ 6 2-4     8-4-2
RAMAPO     4     1-5-1     7-8-2
WILLIAM PATERSON 4 1-5-1 4-8-2
NEW JERSEY CITY    0     0-6     1-13

Flying Weasel · October 21, 2015, 11:14:26 AM

NJAC is six teams with top two seeds getting byes in the quarterfinals.

lastguyoffthebench · October 21, 2015, 11:15:28 AM

Top 6, with 1 and 2 getting a bye. TCNJ has some favorable match-ups.

I guess the NSCAA isn't releasing South Atlantic Rankings this week?

Mid-Atlantic Fan · October 21, 2015, 11:17:11 AM

Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 21, 2015, 11:14:26 AM
NJAC is six teams with top two seeds getting byes in the quarterfinals.

So the top 6 are pretty much set but seeds are up in the air. TCNJ has an outside chance of making it. But if they do, Rowan is probably who they swap with which would end their season. I can't see this being more than a 3 bid league. Depends how it shapes out but 3 max 2 for sure.

lastguyoffthebench · October 21, 2015, 11:35:30 AM

Rutgers-Newark is 4-2-1 and has an outside chance of failing to make it as well. They have Rutgers-Camden and MSU remaining.

Rowan is 3-3 (NJCU, Kean and TCNJ remaining, but beat RUN 7-1). Should finish atleast 4-4-1.

Mr.Right · October 21, 2015, 11:57:45 AM

Sorry I meant to post this HERE..

Big win for Rutgers Newark over Stevens last night...I believe Stevens might be getting closer to AQ or bust as their resume is getting less and less impressive by the day....If RUN can go 2-0-1 or better yet 3-0-0 in their last three games they will be off the bubble IMO

Mr.Right · October 21, 2015, 12:04:57 PM

Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 21, 2015, 10:56:33 AM
How do the NJAC playoffs work? Will Camden make the cut off? If it's top 6 then yes but if it's top 5 they will cut it close.

SCHOOL     CPTS     CONF     OVERALL
MONTCLAIR      18     6-1     14-2
STOCKTON     16     5-1-1 13-3-1
KEAN     15     5-1     14-2
RUTGERS-NEWARK   13     4-2-1     13-4-1
RUTGERS-CAMDEN   12     4-3     9-6-1
ROWAN     9     3-3     12-4
TCNJ 6 2-4     8-4-2
RAMAPO     4     1-5-1     7-8-2
WILLIAM PATERSON 4 1-5-1 4-8-2
NEW JERSEY CITY    0     0-6     1-13

Very top heavy league as the bottom 3 are way out of their league...

TCNJ has some work to do to catch Rowan but Rowan must beat Kean...

As far as Pool C's:

Personally if RUN wins out I like their resume very much plus their SOS and Record v Ranked will be very good.

MSU--Their resume is a bit thin to me and their Record v Ranked will be average. They will definitely get in but just saying.

Rutgers Camden is the sleeper. With Mike Ryan they have a guy that could take over the NJAC play-offs and steal the AQ..They are AQ or bust.

Stockton does not have enough GOOD wins but they are close

Kean IMO is close to getting itself off the bubble.

lastguyoffthebench · October 21, 2015, 12:15:51 PM

With TCNJ and Rutgers-Newark beating Stevens, it is just showing how strong the conference is this year.

Definitely think it's a 3 bid league...

We won't know if Kean is even in the consideration until these rankings come out. If we take away anything from this it would be that a soft schedule is okay IF the majority of the games are on the road (see Calvin).

Mr.Right · October 21, 2015, 01:00:47 PM

Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 21, 2015, 12:15:51 PM

With TCNJ and Rutgers-Newark beating Stevens, it is just showing how strong the conference is this year.

Definitely think it's a 3 bid league...

We won't know if Kean is even in the consideration until these rankings come out. If we take away anything from this it would be that a soft schedule is okay IF the majority of the games are on the road (see Calvin).

Kean does have the "soft" schedule to start but they certainly have backed that up with some very impressive conference wins that should elevate their ranking...My guess is today they will be #4-#6

Mr.Right · October 21, 2015, 01:04:20 PM

Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 21, 2015, 12:15:51 PM

With TCNJ and Rutgers-Newark beating Stevens, it is just showing how strong the conference is this year.

Definitely think it's a 3 bid league...

I agree the NJAC will have the AQ + 2 Pool C's and a possible 3rd depending upon who the AQ is.

My point exactly with Stevens. The NJAC is strong but to me Stevens has a lot of work to do...Their resume has serious holes and I believe they will need to win the empire 8, which BTW is not a given this year.

lastguyoffthebench · October 21, 2015, 01:11:56 PM

Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 19, 2015, 11:07:03 AM
Kean could be 3-0 vs Ranked if TCNJ and Rutgers-Newark make their way on the list... They are very close to the .500 SOS, but that will all change once they play Rowan and Stockton, and the NJAC playoffs.

NCAA Rankings Projections

1. MSU
2. Stockton
3. Rowan
4. CNU
5. Kean*
6. Rutgers-Newark
7. TCNJ

*If Kean is not ranked, slide up TCNJ / Rutgers-Newark and add (Salisbury, Rutgers-Camden or an ODAC school) to the 7th slot.

Mr.Right, I concur with your ranking of Kean and we shall soon find out...