2016 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[NEPAFAN]

No Haverford?

Good questions.  I didn't include teams in the "Drama Club" that I either ranked (and that may end up that group like Oberlin, W&L, Kenyon, ONU, etc) to avoid duplicates OR teams like Haverford and E'town that I thought were relatively safe in terms of Pool C if they need one.

Good answer!!

[dontshootthegoose]

Wisconsin Lutheran up 1-0 at Dominican at half!

[Wisco21]

Wisconsin Lutheran up 1-0 at Dominican at half!

WLC just leveled 2-2 with less than 10min to play!

[dontshootthegoose]

Here comes PK's between Wisconsin Lutheran and Dominican!

[Flying Weasel]

5-4 Wis. Lutheran wins the shutout!

[PaulNewman]

A couple of thoughts on the regional rankings...

First, the poll should perhaps have had another option, which would be a scenario where all 3 teams cited -- OWU, SLU and Tufts -- make the tournament.  Given how the rankings are playing out it's hard to see who might overtake them, so the question may be whether the cmte goes 4-5 deep in those regions with a factor being the right teams getting AQs and not eating up spots, which so far would appear to be the case.

In Great Lakes, I think Ohio Northern and Oberlin would find being behind OWU hard to accept.  It makes sense by the criteria I suppose and now ONU doesn't have a way to pick up more ranked wins and Oberlin can't get a ranked win over Wabash tonight.  A couple of us wondered if Rose Hulman or Wabash might supplant Hanover, and instead what happened is that Hanover stayed and Rose Hulman supplanted John Carroll.  That means DePauw and OWU keep their Hanover wins and DPU I believe get the bonus of adding a Rose Hulman win while adding a loss today.  It is inconceivable to me that ONU could be left out if they don't win their AQ, and in some ways Oberlin would seem deserving overall than DPU or OWU, despite losing to both.  Oberlin was unlucky not to walk away with a draw with Kenyon.  They also don't get the credit for a win over Wabash which will be two if they win tonight because I think most would agree that Wabash is very much on par with both Hanover and Rose Hulman.  Oberlin also isn't getting credited with very good wins over Geneva and Grove City.

In general it's interesting how some teams have been losing and yet haven't slipped at all or much at all in the rankings.  Rochester drops games to NYU and Brandeis and still is solidly #3 in the East.  Same deal with SLU.  And there's no real reason to see how teams below them will jump them in the next week given a lack of ranked opponents and no head-to-heads.  Same with DPU and OWU.  DPU has losses to Wabash and Kenyon in the last week and amazingly still sits at #1.  CMU adds a win and loss and jumps from #7 to #2 (including jumping over Kenyon).  Their game with CWRU may have no impact at all.

The one team in the spotlight that may be in real trouble?  Montclair State.  MSU if they lose to Rowan will have a RVR of 1-5, as they will lose the Whitworth win and would add another loss.  7 blemishes and a 1-5 RVR might be too much to overcome.

Meanwhile, Tufts will go from 5-0 to 5-3 BUT other than possibly Middlebury jumping the Jumbos it's hard to see anyone else doing so unless RIC gets an AQ (and another ranked win).  Otherwise I think RIC will be 1-4 on RVR.  Even Midd can only get another ranked win by beating Hamilton and then also beating Amherst or Bowdoin.  So Tufts' biggest danger might be Amherst not getting the AQ. 

Correction:  Oberlin beat DPU, giving them their one ranked win.

[PaulNewman]

So, if I'm reading all this correctly, the aforementioned bubble teams, other than MSU, want Rowan, Amherst Messiah, Kenyon, F&M or Haverford and maybe Etown to win their AQs.

And UMass-Boston as well.

[dontshootthegoose]

Loras in a back and forth game with Simpson, currently up 3-2 with 19' left.

[Dubuquer]

Loras goes up 2-0.  Simpson knots it at 2 in the middle of the 2nd half then Loras puts them away to win 5-2. Loras can put numbers on the board quickly, that's for sure. Should be a good IIAC title game against Luther, who beat Dubuque 4-0.

[Mr.Right]

Year after Year we have some of the SAME issues with the Regional Rankings and their shock value to us in the know. A couple opinions:

Rochester----Chris Apple and his boys have somehow done it again. They are 8-4-3. They are 1-4-2 in their last 7 games against their best competition on their schedule. They go 0-2-0 at NYU and at Brandeis on the weekend and STAY ranked #3. Unbelievable...I mean to be fair the East is a complete mess. SLU goes 2-3-0 in their last 5 games and are still sitting at #4. The obvious question is who are the teams that can pass them in the rankings. The answer is no one really. BUT, that does not mean we just hand SLU and Rochester Pool C berths because they are Top 4 in their region. If Rochester cannot beat Emory this weekend and they still get a Pool C then this whole process is a joke. Maybe a team like Vassar with a weaker SOS but who defeated UR 3-0 could pass them in the rankings? Seems fair to me. With Durocher heading the East committee it seems SLU is pretty safe by not making their conference tournament and having 2 weeks off to get rewarded a Pool C.  Personally, maybe the loser of the Cortland / Oneonta game gets the only Pool C in the region. Now I know the region is better than that but maybe other regions will benefit. It will be interesting to see play out.

Congrats to Skidmore for hanging tough with Hobart and getting to the LL Final where as I predicted in October will win the AQ over Vassar. Vassar would be eliminated with a loss. A draw might get them a Pool C and overtake SLU and frankly Hobart is now squarely on the bubble by not losing and grabbing a draw. Wrong side of the bubble but still on it. I really like Skidmore in this game at Vassar.


Bowdoin-------You have a 9-4-3 record. Play in an excellent league. Have only 1 loss since the middle of September and that was in OT and just went 2-0-0 against the 5th ranked team in New England Tufts in the past week. They are ranked 10th...Screwjob if I have ever seen one. Bowdoin will have to get a 3 peat in the Nescac Championship and the AQ to get into the NCAA's. Unless they beat Amherst and maybe draw with Midd and lose in PK's. They should be ranked #7 behind Midd only because of the Head to Head loss. Even Midd at 10-3-3 will lose a ranked win because Conn dropped off so that is only 1 ranked win all season...They really MIGHT have to win the AQ as well as a Hamilton win does nothing for them...Alot of pressure on Hamilton, Midd and Bowdoin this weekend to win the Nescac AQ. Tufts and their 4 ranked wins as the Conn win will disappear should have enough for a Pool C but if I were them I would be rooting for Midd to lose and for Bowdoin to lose as those 2 teams could jump them in the Final rankings.


I could go on and on about a few more teams in other regions where I feel are over / under ranked but let's wait and see it play out.

[PaulNewman]

Pool C odds and ends....

Locks/Very Likely -- RUN, Brandeis, Cortland/Oneonta loser, F&M/Haverford loser or both, Etown/Scranton loser, Lynchburg/W&L loser

Very likely if lose conference semi/final -- Amherst, UMass-Boston, Rowan, Carthage, Kenyon, Trinity, Messiah, St Thomas, Babson?

Could these teams be left out if they lose conference final? -- Christopher Newport (no ranked wins), Calvin (low SOS and 1 ranked win), Ohio Northern (SOS and 1 ranked with 1 ranked tie), Macalester (only 1 ranked tie), RIC (would be 1-4 RVR if lose), Loras (will be 0-4 RVR), Colorado (only 1 ranked tie and no ranked wins)

What about? -- St Norbert (ranked and 2-0 RVR), Chapman (#2 in West and 1-0 RVR)

Wheaton (MA) only at #12 in region could be 4-1 RVR if beats Babson with good SOS.  Wheaton perhaps was under-ranked?

Rest of hopefuls with likely strong consideration -- Rochester, Carnegie Mellon, Emory, Wash U, Tufts, Middlebury, Bowdoin, SLU, Vassar, Montclair, Hopkins, Benedictine (only 1 ranked win and lower SOS), DePauw, OWU, Oberlin, Texas-Dallas (0-2-1)

Might have missed one or two.  Did not include ranked teams that seem too far down for very strong consideration and no path to improve standing.

[PaulNewman]

And here come the Wheaton Thunder....2-0 at North Park late 1st half.

[D3soccerwatcher]

Wheaton Thunder rumble to a 3-1 win over North Park.  Head now to the CCIW Conf final versus Carthage (who beat Wheaton earlier this season 4-2).

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Heading into the weekend...

MAF Power Rankings
1. Chicago (16-0-1)
2. Messiah (16-0-3)
3. Rowan (16-1-1)
4. Amherst (14-1-1)
5. Trinity Tx (18-1-0)
6. Ohio Northern (17-1-3)
7. Kenyon (16-2-0)
8. Calvin (17-2-0)
9. Cortland St. (16-2-0)
10. Mass-Boston (16-1-2)
11. Newark (18-3-0)
12. F&M (12-2-3)
13. Springfield (16-1-1)
14. Lynchburg (14-1-4)
15. PSU Behrend (16-1-3)
16. Newport (16-2-1)
17. Colorado College (15-2-1)
18. St. Thomas (15-1-3)
19. Carthage (17-3-0)
20. Haverford (11-3-3)
21. Loras (13-4-0)
22. W&L (14-3-1)
23. St. Joe's (15-1-4)
24. Etown (13-2-2)
25. Whitworth (12-3-2)

RV: Macalester (13-3-3), Oberlin (15-3-1), Oneonta St (14-5-1), Whitewater (13-4-3), Brandeis (10-4-3), Vassar (13-3-2), Scranton (13-3-1), Capital (14-4-2), Middlebury (10-3-3), Johns Hopkins (12-3-2), Geneva (15-3-1), Lebanon Valley (14-3-0), Dominican (12-2-4), St. Lawrence (11-4-0)


Not a lot of movement in the top 25 but some reshuffling in the RV section.

[PaulNewman]

Pool Cs

Rowan

Rutgers-Newark