Fantasy D3FB Tournament of Champions

HansenRatings · April 01, 2020, 07:13:45 PM

Since we can't watch real sports, I decided to create a fantasy tournament of sorts to pass the time. My ratings go back to 1997, so I created a 64-team bracket of some of the best teams of the last 20-some years. The qualifying teams were:

All national champs since 1997.
Using my ratings, the highest-rated team from each conference since 1997. Teams must have qualified for the playoffs. Schools with a natty since 1997 don't qualify, so for example, Linfield & PLU have had some of the best teams in the NWC, but Willamette's 2008 squad gets the "AQ" for the NWC.
10 at-large/Pool C bids. Schools with a natty can get an at-large, but limit 1 at-large per school.

Then, I made some geographic decisions, and placed teams into 4 regions:

Mount Union & Cleveland (12 Mt Union teams, 2 teams each from JCU & CWRU)
Northeast & Great Lakes (this is a very broad term for teams from Michigan to Maine to Maryland)
Island & Minnesota Bracket (NWC, SCIAC, ASC, SCAC/SAA, USAC, ODAC, & MIAC teams)
Midwest (7 UWW teams and others from the WIAC, ARC, CCIW, MWC, & UMAC)

Seeds were determined first by how far a team advanced in the playoffs, and then using my ratings as a tie-breaker.

I'm doing voting on Twitter starting tomorrow at noon. The tweak to traditional voting is that an underdog (as determined by my ratings) needs more of the vote to advance. So for a team that is a 7-point 'dog, the implied win probability of that match-up would be right around 33%. So then the favorite would only need 33% of the vote to advance, and the underdog would need 68%.

Here are the teams in each of the 4 regions:

HansenRatings · April 02, 2020, 01:45:44 PM

For anyone interested in voting, the Twitter thread with each matchup is here:
https://twitter.com/LogHanRatings/status/1245757897683976193?s=20

You don't need an account to vote.

FCGrizzliesGrad · April 02, 2020, 02:06:37 PM

A little typo on the Franklin handle. It's FCGrizFootball not FCGrisFootball.

HansenRatings · April 02, 2020, 04:54:05 PM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on April 02, 2020, 02:06:37 PM
A little typo on the Franklin handle. It's FCGrizFootball not FCGrisFootball.

I caught it after I tweeted out the whole thread. It won't happen again. I am ashamed.

HansenRatings · April 03, 2020, 05:10:49 PM

First round of voting is done. Disappointingly, my alma mater failed again to pull off the upset against UWW. 2008... 2014... 2019... and now in my made-up fake football tournament, too. We'll get 'em one day. Here's the Twitter thread with the results
https://twitter.com/LogHanRatings/status/1246143619028975619?s=20

Mount Union started with 11 teams in the tournament, and won every matchup that wasn't Mt Union vs. Mt Union.
All of UWW's Stagg Bowl Champions are still going.
PLU was the only Stagg Bowl Champion to get knocked out by a non-champ (SJU), but the team they beat (1999 Rowan) looks to be the Beast of the East again.

And the updated matchups:

jamtod · April 06, 2020, 09:25:38 AM

While I was a little annoyed that the 2 UST teams had to face one another, this was overcome by the 2015 UST runner-up team knocking off SJU's 2003 championship squad thanks to a favorable algorithm.

hazzben · April 06, 2020, 02:08:04 PM

Quote from: jamtod on April 06, 2020, 09:25:38 AM
While I was a little annoyed that the 2 UST teams had to face one another, this was overcome by the 2015 UST runner-up team knocking off SJU's 2003 championship squad thanks to a favorable algorithm.

Like DB's in 2003, the algorithm didn't have an answer for Blake Elliot.

jamtod · April 06, 2020, 02:54:10 PM

Quote from: hazzben on April 06, 2020, 02:08:04 PM
Quote from: jamtod on April 06, 2020, 09:25:38 AM
While I was a little annoyed that the 2 UST teams had to face one another, this was overcome by the 2015 UST runner-up team knocking off SJU's 2003 championship squad thanks to a favorable algorithm.

Like DB's in 2003, the algorithm didn't have an answer for Blake Elliot.

I prefer to think of SJU as the ultimate DB university

thewaterboy · April 06, 2020, 08:55:49 PM

2010 Wesley was one of the best shots Wesley had at getting to the Stagg.... trouble is, they were decimated by injuries by the time UWW came around in the semis. 2011 Wesley was right there too... until they lost Chris Mayes.

hazzben · April 07, 2020, 12:38:49 PM

Quote from: jamtod on April 06, 2020, 02:54:10 PM
Quote from: hazzben on April 06, 2020, 02:08:04 PM
Quote from: jamtod on April 06, 2020, 09:25:38 AM
While I was a little annoyed that the 2 UST teams had to face one another, this was overcome by the 2015 UST runner-up team knocking off SJU's 2003 championship squad thanks to a favorable algorithm.

that got an LOL ... DBU (aka SJU)

Like DB's in 2003, the algorithm didn't have an answer for Blake Elliot.

I prefer to think of SJU as the ultimate DB university

Ithaca798891 · April 24, 2020, 11:17:15 AM

I think this is cool.

Personally, I'd like it if you took the 64 best teams in your system with no duplicate schools.

I think it would be great for some additional excellent teams from across the country to be recognized (right now you have 36), rather than having a dozen versions of Mount

hazzben · April 24, 2020, 11:33:24 AM

Quote from: Ithaca798891 on April 24, 2020, 11:17:15 AM
I think this is cool.

Personally, I'd like it if you took the 64 best teams in your system with no duplicate schools.

I think it would be great for some additional excellent teams from across the country to be recognized (right now you have 36), rather than having a dozen versions of Mount

Agreed. Each school only gets one rep. So whichever Mount or UWW team was tops, that's their one rep. Makes it a lot more interesting.

Ithaca798891 · April 24, 2020, 11:49:54 AM

Quote from: hazzben on April 24, 2020, 11:33:24 AM
Quote from: Ithaca798891 on April 24, 2020, 11:17:15 AM
I think this is cool.

Personally, I'd like it if you took the 64 best teams in your system with no duplicate schools.

I think it would be great for some additional excellent teams from across the country to be recognized (right now you have 36), rather than having a dozen versions of Mount

Agreed. Each school only gets one rep. So whichever Mount or UWW team was tops, that's their one rep. Makes it a lot more interesting.

I'd even like some wilder brackets. The 64 best Pool C teams. The 64 best teams that *didn't* make the playoffs. Just, in general, some things that don't just recognize the same half dozen schools. We get enough of that when we have football

HScoach · May 19, 2020, 02:29:15 PM

Quote from: hazzben on April 24, 2020, 11:33:24 AM
Quote from: Ithaca798891 on April 24, 2020, 11:17:15 AM
I think this is cool.

Personally, I'd like it if you took the 64 best teams in your system with no duplicate schools.

I think it would be great for some additional excellent teams from across the country to be recognized (right now you have 36), rather than having a dozen versions of Mount

Agreed. Each school only gets one rep. So whichever Mount or UWW team was tops, that's their one rep. Makes it a lot more interesting.

I have no idea what the algorithm will say, but I've been watching Mount since before they were Mount and their best team was 1997. They've obviously had some great teams and too many great individuals to even begin to list, but that team lead by Bill Borchert's 63 TD's vs 2 INT's was loaded!