NPI bubble

[Crossit4fun]

SUNYAC teams bunched on the edge would be great to see you calculate
Buffalo/Oneonta/Platts/New Paltz (39/41/55/67)

[kansas hokie]

SUNYAC...

Oneonta - Has to beat Canton, gets no benefit in NPI from it but loss is terrible. Then assuming wins in last two games and a New Paltz/Buffalo St win in tourney but loss in final to Cortland...best NPI score the needs at large big - 55.36 or thereabouts....today that's #33, which was the bubble number last year. Go win the next 5, get to the conference final, then worry about at-large bid.

Plattsburgh - Has to beat Potsdam and Buffalo St to end the regular season PLUS hope that they stay in the 3/4 slot to get one more win. Then beat likely New Paltz and Buffalo St. again but lose to Cortland in order to get an NPI of 55.413...like Oneonta, that's right on the bubble line. Go win the next 4, get to the final, then worry about at-large.

Buffalo St. - Has a bit more flexibility. Can lose one of last three, preferably Hobart where they will be the underdog. Win 2, lose to Hobart and NPI before conference tourney is 55.456 (win all is 56.94). Those wins would keep Buffalo in top 2 seed so only semi and final. Beat Oneonta, lose to Cortland. NPI is 55.48 with hobart L and 56.697 with all wins until conf final. Those numbers go down is the loss is to Oswego or Plattsburgh, probably need to win both of those to hold on to at-large hopes.

New Paltz - Has to win the auto-bid, win against Oneonta slightly helps, Canton win is dropped immediately, win two in conference tourney but lose in final and NPI is 54.77 which I don't think will be close enough to be at-large.

Cortland should get at-large bid if they lose in conference tourney, but everyone else has work to do, I think SUNYAC will be a 1-2 bid conference in the end. what's more likely is mixed results, none of these teams wins out and they all drop enough to where no second at-large is possible if Cortland wins conference tournament.

[Freddyfud]

NESCAC Protection Index...ha ha, that's a good one.

I don't take credit for this.  Someone else on these forums with a much more creative mind came up with it about a year ago.

[Crossit4fun]

SUNYAC...

Oneonta - Has to be Canton, gets no benefit in NPI from it but loss is terrible. Then assuming wins in last two games and a New Paltz/Buffalo St win in tourney but loss in final to Cortland...best NPI score the needs at large big - 55.36 or thereabouts....today that's #33, which was the bubble number last year. Go win the next 5, get to the conference final, then worry about at-large bid.

Plattsburgh - Has to beat Potsdam and Buffalo St to end the regular season PLUS hope that they stay in the 3/4 slot to get one more win. Then beat likely New Paltz and Buffalo St. again but lose to Cortland in order to get an NPI of 55.413...like Oneonta, that's right on the bubble line. Go win the next 4, get to the final, then worry about at-large.

Buffalo St. - Has a bit more flexibility. Can lose one of last three, preferably Hobart where they will be the underdog. Win 2, lose to Hobart and NPI before conference tourney is 55.456 (win all is 56.94). Those wins would keep Buffalo in top 2 seed so only semi and final. Beat Oneonta, lose to Cortland. NPI is 55.48 with hobart L and 56.697 with all wins until conf final. Those numbers go down is the loss is to Oswego or Plattsburgh, probably need to win both of those to hold on to at-large hopes.

New Paltz - Has to win the auto-bid, win against Oneonta slightly helps, Canton win is dropped immediately, win two in conference tourney but lose in final and NPI is 54.77 which I don't think will be close enough to be at-large.

Cortland should get at-large bid if they lose in conference tourney, but everyone else has work to do, I think SUNYAC will be a 1-2 bid conference in the end. what's more likely is mixed results, none of these teams wins out and they all drop enough to where no second at-large is possible if Cortland wins conference tournament.

Great stuff love the details!

[kansas hokie]

10/26 NPI is out - 10/26 NPI link

Last 8 in:

UW - Whitewater (#28, 56.578 NPI)
Middlebury
Macalester
Catholic
Wooster
Bridgewater
Buffalo St.
Hamilton (#40, 55.572 NPI)

Last 8 out:

W&L (#41, 55.563 NPI)
Rowan
Vassar
Carnegie Mellon
UW-Stevens Point
Plattsburgh St.
Rochester
Sewanee

Top 4 (protected) - Tufts, Augsburg, St. Olaf, Wash U
5-8 (protected) - Chicago, Williams, Bowdoin, Emory

Getting down to where flexibility in NPI gets less and conference tourney put losses on a lot of bubble teams. The cut number is still 40 and it won't go higher, last year is was 33 which would make Catholic the last team in right now at 32.

[SKUD]

What are implications if Wheaton loses 2x vs Babson between now and Conf Championship?

[kansas hokie]

Using today's numbers (win @ springfield, loss to Babson, win in semis, loss to Babson in final) the NPI would be 56.39 which is #31 today. Not enough to say you are safe, winning first Babson game would do it. Also, conference final loss can't be to anyone except Babson or Wheaton drops too far.

In a good place, just not entirely secure.

[kansas hokie]

Multi-bid conferences

NESCAC - 8
UAA - 4
MIAC - 4
ODAC - 4
WIAC - 2
SAA - 2
SUNYAC - 2
NCAC - 2
Landmark - 2

[maineman]

With Middlebury at #29, a loss to Williams on Tuesday coupled with a loss in the opening round of the NESCAC tournament to Tufts or Williams could be devastating to their chances for an NCAA bid.

[Bucket]

With Middlebury at #29, a loss to Williams on Tuesday coupled with a loss in the opening round of the NESCAC tournament to Tufts or Williams could be devastating to their chances for ac NCAA bid.

Actually, no. Wins (or ties) would be huge, but losses to such highly NPI rated teams would not move the needle downward much, if at all.

[paclassic89]

If they lost both, they would drop to an NPI of 55.752 which would be 36th in this week's rankings.  I'm just taking the static values from this week's rankings and the loss values could move up or down slightly as the week progresses (in addition to other teams near them moving up or down).  But if they lose both, they would be firmly on the bubble and definitely at risk of missing out

[maineman]

If they lost both, they would drop to an NPI of 55.752 which would be 36th in this week's rankings.  I'm just taking the static values from this week's rankings and the loss values could move up or down slightly as the week progresses (in addition to other teams near them moving up or down).  But if they lose both, they would be firmly on the bubble and definitely at risk of missing out

They best win or tie one of the games!

[kansas hokie]

Agree with PAClassic and not only because we are both Leeds fans. How he calculated it is how I do it as well. For Middlebury, two losses would almost certainly see them drop out of tourney. The best scenario for two losses is lose to Williams and lose to Tufts which today's numbers gets you to 55.75.

Last year's NPI final cutoff number 55.989.

Think Middlebury has to win one more. Even a tie at Williams would do it too. Tie and loss gets NPI over 56. A tie in first-round of NESCAC (loss in PK's) would also likely get Middlebury over 56.

[CentPA]

Just noticed that the NPI rankings updated again today as of games through 10/27/25 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/season_divisions/18611/nitty_gritties)  I thought the daily updates didn't start until the week leading up to the National Championship selections but we are still almost two weeks out.??

[Kuiper]

Just noticed that the NPI rankings updated again today as of games through 10/27/25 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/season_divisions/18611/nitty_gritties)  I thought the daily updates didn't start until the week leading up to the National Championship selections but we are still almost two weeks out.??

I guess they really wanted the NPI to reflect the fact that Bethel (MN) beat Wisconsin-River Falls 2-1 yesterday, which was the only game in DIII men's soccer on Monday.