NPI bubble

[kansas hokie]

The NCAA typically has updated the NPI more often in the last two weeks including daily last year for the last week. Thought they might wait until after at least Tuesday games to update this week but oh well.

[Kuiper]

Wanted to offer some comparative data from 2024 that explains the numbers today

In 2024, the lowest non-AQ was Buffalo State at 33.  There were 12 AQs in the top 33, with 21 non-AQ teams getting in the tournament.

As of 10/19/25, there are 16 different conferences with teams in the top 33. So, if every one of those 16 conferences continued to have an AQ in the top 33, then the non-AQ teams would go down to #37 (assuming we have the same number of conference AQs this year).

Of course, there will likely be changes between now and the final NPI before selection (which is the only one that matters) that will change the number of conferences with teams in the top 33.  It will likely go down, but there are also 4 conferences with teams ranked 34-37 that could jump up into the top 33 with good results the rest of the season and in their conference tournaments, so it could go up too, which would push the minimum ranking number higher.  Just wanted to offer this perspective though.

Just to update, as of 10/27, there are still 16 different conferences with teams in the NPI top 33.  Plus, there are three more conferences represented just outside the top 33 (Wheaton (IL) (CCIW), Mary Hardin-Baylor (ASC), and Ohio Northern (OAC)).  Many of the conferences also have more than one team in the top 33, which makes it more likely that it least one of those current teams will get the AQ.  So, there is still a chance the NPI rank for the last non-AQ qualifier will extend higher than 33.

[kansas hokie]

Catholic is an interesting NPI example...if they need an at-large bid, they would need to win semis and lost final to Scranton. the difference could come down to who they play in semis Moravian is higher and a better win than Lycoming. 55.93 vs. 56.04 would be NPI difference and that .11 could be what gets them in or out. Take Scranton to PK's and lose and they would be in. Almost guaranteed to be a bubble team.

[BlueJay95]

I am hoping some of the NPI crunchers can help me here. Rowan is 11-3-4 and it is the only team I can find with 10+ wins for which there are no results listed as having 0.0 Net NPI. Can someone explain the 10+ win threshold and how it works? I can't figure out the calculation as there is definitely some adjustment that takes place and perhaps this is why they don't have any 0.0 Net NPI results. I am assuming this can't be a mistake.

[Kuiper]

I am hoping some of the NPI crunchers can help me here. Rowan is 11-3-4 and it is the only team I can find with 10+ wins for which there are no results listed as having 0.0 Net NPI. Can someone explain the 10+ win threshold and how it works? I can't figure out the calculation as there is definitely some adjustment that takes place and perhaps this is why they don't have any 0.0 Net NPI results. I am assuming this can't be a mistake.

I'm not a NPI cruncher at the granular level, but I know it is an algorithm that drops games only if it would improve a team's NPI score.  So, it must be that the team is better off with all the wins than getting rid of wins for a tiny bit better strength of schedule.

[kansas hokie]

I am hoping some of the NPI crunchers can help me here. Rowan is 11-3-4 and it is the only team I can find with 10+ wins for which there are no results listed as having 0.0 Net NPI. Can someone explain the 10+ win threshold and how it works? I can't figure out the calculation as there is definitely some adjustment that takes place and perhaps this is why they don't have any 0.0 Net NPI results. I am assuming this can't be a mistake.

That does look strange to me. From what I have been learning about all of this by looking at a ton of schools is that yes, after 10 total wins (adj w/l) in NPI page you drop your lowest win/ties (ties give you .5 win). If I follow the methodology I'm used to seeing then Rowan would drop their 3 lowest results and their NPI today would rise to 55.939 which would be an important change.

It's rare for me to say this, but it appears that Rowan's calculation in the NPI is wrong. They should have started dropping lowest wins on 10/19 version and that didn't happen. Something to keep an eye on.

[kansas hokie]

I am hoping some of the NPI crunchers can help me here. Rowan is 11-3-4 and it is the only team I can find with 10+ wins for which there are no results listed as having 0.0 Net NPI. Can someone explain the 10+ win threshold and how it works? I can't figure out the calculation as there is definitely some adjustment that takes place and perhaps this is why they don't have any 0.0 Net NPI results. I am assuming this can't be a mistake.

I actually figured it out....it's not an error.  Rowan's NPI is 55.563. They should be dropping 3 wins, but each of their lowest wins (F&M, Kean, and NJ City) have win values HIGHER than Rowan's current NPI. Thus, dropping them would actually hurt Rowan so they stay in. This happens with the number of losses and ties (which have to be included in NPI calculations) lowers the overall NPI to that level.

So yes, Rowan's NPI is accurate. Learned something new today....

That does look strange to me. From what I have been learning about all of this by looking at a ton of schools is that yes, after 10 total wins (adj w/l) in NPI page you drop your lowest win/ties (ties give you .5 win). If I follow the methodology I'm used to seeing then Rowan would drop their 3 lowest results and their NPI today would rise to 55.939 which would be an important change.

It's rare for me to say this, but it appears that Rowan's calculation in the NPI is wrong. They should have started dropping lowest wins on 10/19 version and that didn't happen. Something to keep an eye on.