NCAA Tournament 2025

Started by Kuiper, November 09, 2025, 07:17:48 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

knight38 and 6 Guests are viewing this topic.

Freddyfud

Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on November 17, 2025, 05:47:26 PM
Quote from: Freddyfud on November 17, 2025, 04:55:53 PMSomething I noticed unsurprisingly is the level of keeper play as a determinant for post season success. Some obvious examples are Silvester and Landa in the battle of Vegas last year. Others are Will Joseph for the Generals and the cinderella run of Washington College with Anthony Pinto 2 years ago to get to the final four.   

I think at this level consistent fundamentals such as positioning and ball distribution are just a given. What seems to set apart the shot stoppers above is the ability to make some saves destined for a goal, and not just PKs.  A challenging save at a critical time can change the momentum and ultimately the outcome of the game.

At Wesleyan yesterday in a game featuring rain, hail and leaves senior GK Travis Holiday for Rowan came up with this:

If that ball goes in Wesleyan is up 1-0 in the 21st minute of the game, and the outcome could have been very different.

Facing the 11th ranked team in scoring offense at 3 goals per game in Emory the Profs may need a few of these saves Saturday.

Absolutely agree. Great save by Rowan.

You also can clearly say that Wes could have hung in there for quite awhile, but for the two clear keeper flubs which sunk its chances. One mistake Wes may have been able to overcome, but the second in first min of the 2nd half not so much. Definitely goes both ways.

Son was a keeper through his college years and he was not perfect, but knew that one mistake his team could manage.  2 not so much.

Also, I think the Wes field played a part. The keeper area after three games in wet weather seemed to be compromised (not like back in our days though where it often was a mud pit). Once again the advantage of playing on turf. I am not sure what the cost of turf v. grass. However, if you have grass you really, really have to invest in keeping it up. Otherwise, grass just becomes another factor in game teams have to deal with that they don't have to on turf. Only maybe a 6-10 places across D3 have grass that is in great shape like W&L, Dickinson, McDaniel and probably a few others. FYI, W&L and Dickinson is only recent as they used to have horrible grass fields.

Bringing lacrosse into the conversation which the grass does not always make a huge difference except around the goal area. High level lacrosse has greatly improved on turf from my days in the 80's. Much more about talent and speed than lucky/unlucky bounces. Most, if not all play on turf, and the games are much better especially around the goal mouth.

I know some will say "both teams had to play on the grass" argument. That is a cop out imo. In many cases on fields not kept up or weather compromised the fields, luck plays a big part. Not so much on turf. I much rather have skill and talent make the difference. In the Wes/Rowan game, I definitely think the keeper area played a big part in the first goal. 2nd not so much.
The weather and field conditions definitely played a part.  I genuinely felt bad for the unlucky Wesleyan keeper.  But my point was that shot so early in the game could have been a turning point for Wesleyan in a game that otherwise was fairly equal.  Will never know of course.

Freddyfud

Quote from: Bucket on November 17, 2025, 07:08:53 PM
Quote from: Freddyfud on November 17, 2025, 04:55:53 PMSomething I noticed unsurprisingly is the level of keeper play as a determinant for post season success. Some obvious examples are Silvester and Landa in the battle of Vegas last year. Others are Will Joseph for the Generals and the cinderella run of Washington College with Anthony Pinto 2 years ago to get to the final four.   

I think at this level consistent fundamentals such as positioning and ball distribution are just a given. What seems to set apart the shot stoppers above is the ability to make some saves destined for a goal, and not just PKs.  A challenging save at a critical time can change the momentum and ultimately the outcome of the game.

At Wesleyan yesterday in a game featuring rain, hail and leaves senior GK Travis Holiday for Rowan came up with this:


If that ball goes in Wesleyan is up 1-0 in the 21st minute of the game, and the outcome could have been very different.

Facing the 11th ranked team in scoring offense at 3 goals per game in Emory the Profs may need a few of these saves Saturday.

Nick Phinney was all that and more for Wheaton against Midd. 10 saves, with at least 4-5 of that spectacular variety you describe.
Thanks for the info, tuning in to watch the replay now.

SKUD

Quote from: Newenglander on November 17, 2025, 02:09:31 PM
Quote from: SKUD on November 17, 2025, 12:04:28 PMhttps://www.ncaa.com/champs-pass

Scroll down for completed games.
Thanks but only see completed games from last year (unless I'm still missing something)....

https://www.ncaa.com/champs-pass

Scroll down to division three soccer 2025 and all the games should be there in recent

Newenglander

Quote from: SKUD on November 18, 2025, 08:13:10 AM
Quote from: Newenglander on November 17, 2025, 02:09:31 PM
Quote from: SKUD on November 17, 2025, 12:04:28 PMhttps://www.ncaa.com/champs-pass

Scroll down for completed games.
Thanks but only see completed games from last year (unless I'm still missing something)....

https://www.ncaa.com/champs-pass

Scroll down to division three soccer 2025 and all the games should be there in recent
yessir - Thanks!

Sandon Mibut

Of the 16 teams remaining, only 3 have made it to the Final 4 since Covid (aka since 2021): Conn, St. Olaf and Williams.

Go back to the final year before Covid (2019) and only 4 of the remaining 16 have been to the Final 4: Tufts along with the 3 mentioned earlier.

The right-half of the 2025 bracket features 8 teams that have never been to the Final 4 since at least 2019. In other words, whichever 2 teams on the right-half make it to the final 4 will be their first time in many years and none of the players will have had prior experience.

While Tufts went to the Final 4 in 2019, that was under coach Josh Shapiro and clearly none of those athletes remain in 2025. Whereas this year's Tufts squad is the first time 100% of the players were recruited by Kyle Dezotell.

In the 4 seasons since Covid, 10/16 of the teams that made it to the Final 4 needed to survive PK's to get there and, in fact, 5/16 of the teams survived 2 games that went to either OT or PKs prior to the Final 4. My stats might undercount the # of games that went to OT or PKs because the 2021 bracket has very few games identified as PK/OT. I'm not sure if that is an error in the NCAA results or if it was an abnormal year.

Of the 16 teams remaining this year, only 1 needed PKs in the opening weekend (WashU 1st round) and 3 required OT (Tufts 2nd round, Messiah 1st round, Cortland 1st round).

By way of a prognostication I offer the following. Note, I have never played on a soccer team and I have but one year experience as head coach of a U8 team:
  • National Champ will come from Top-Left quadrant: Tufts or Conn
  • Runner-up will come from Top-Right quadrant- I would venture Augsburg or Trinity but not very sure in this quadrant.
  • St Olaf or Macalester will fall in the semifinals in a tough match against Tufts or Conn
  • The "Right-Half Semifinal" will be Rowan or Lynchburg losing to a "Top-Right Team."

jumpshot

Hey Sierra, one of the best natural grass soccer fields for decades in America is at Williams College, also in a beautiful mountain setting. Adjacent natural grass field reserved for the women's team is also a gem. In extreme weather soccer games can be moved to the artificial surface of the lighted football field on rare occasions. You would enjoy the experience should you ever have the opportunity.




Newenglander

Quote from: jumpshot on November 18, 2025, 02:27:54 PMHey Sierra, one of the best natural grass soccer fields for decades in America is at Williams College, also in a beautiful mountain setting. Adjacent natural grass field reserved for the women's team is also a gem. In extreme weather soccer games can be moved to the artificial surface of the lighted football field on rare occasions. You would enjoy the experience should you ever have the opportunity.




If we are taking a list - Trinity's (CT) dedicated grass is some of the best around and players on it have all agreed.......

Kuiper

#187
While we find ways to pass the days waiting for the Round of 16 to start, here are a few facts about Trinity and Wash U. (who play each other on Saturday at 1:30 pm central) that are probably only of interest to me:

1. These two teams have played before (although you find different information from each school):

Wash U. statesthat it has an 0-3 all-time record against Trinity, losing twice in San Antonio and once at home, scoring 1 goal in the three games and conceding 4

Trinity, on the other hand, states it it has a 7-1-1 all-time record against Wash U., and is on a 6 game winning streak against the Bears.

The difference?  Wash U's online records don't go back as far as Trinity's, which identifies their first match as a 2OT tie back in 1994.  I guess when your coach, Paul McGinlay, is in his 35th season, he's effectively the program historian and inputted his pre-Live Stats records into the system at some point.

They both agree that the last time the two teams played was on 8/31/14, when Trinity won 1-0 in San Antonio.

2.  Wash U. has 3 players from Houston (and 5 total from Texas), while Trinity has only 1 player from Houston (and he was a transfer student from Kenyon).  None of Wash. U's Texans, however, are from places like "Dripping Springs, Texas" (like Adam Knutsen), "Flower Mound, Texas" (like Joey Perryman), or "Round Rock, Texas" (like Daniel Urquidi).  To be fair, Wash. U might list them as coming from Austin or Dallas/Fort Worth.

3.  Wash U. and Trinity have at least 1 set of former HS Soccer teammates on their teams (and possibly 2).

Trinity's Zach Anderson and Wash. U's Quentin Wallace were teammates on the high school varsity soccer team at Davis Senior High School in Davis, CA in 2021-22.  The team was 14-3 and lost in the semifinals of the State DI championships. 

Also, Wash U's James Whitehurst and Trinity's Jack Madsen both went to Highland Park High School in Dallas, but I think they missed each other on Varsity by a year.

4.  Both teams have elite defenses

Wash U. has only allowed 13 goals all season for a Teams Goals Against Average of 0.72

Trinity has only allowed 12 goals all season for a Team Goals Against Average of 0.63

Wash U., however, has allowed 143 shots (7.9/game), compared with Trinity allowing 120 shots (6.3/game).  Plus, Wash U. has allowed a much higher opponent shots on goal percentage (.483) than Trinity (.325).  As a result, Wash. U. goalkeepers have had to make 56 saves, compared with 27 for Trinity's keepers.

5.  Trinity has scored more than Wash U by a decent margin

Trinity has scored 51 goals (2.68/game), while Wash U. has scored 38 goals (2.11/game).

Why?  Two data points that offer possible explanations

a. Trinity has taken a lot more shots (340 total and 17.9/game) than Wash. U (254 and 14.1/game)

Wash U. actually has a slightly higher shots on goal percentage (.461 to .453), but has hit only 117 shots on goal, compared to 154 for Trinity

b. Trinity got into more dangerous spots offensively

Trinity had 12 PKs and scored on 11 of them, while Wash U. only had 1 PK all season (likely reflecting the fact that Trinity engages in a lot more intricate passing and movement within the box than most teams)

Trinity also took 149 corners compared to 125 for Wash U., which is probably a byproduct of taking more shots.

6.  Wash U. and Trinity have one common opponent in 2025 - Rhodes

Although they both beat Rhodes, neither did it easily. Despite Rhodes finishing 3-8-3, Wash. U only beat Rhodes 2-1 and Trinity only beat Rhodes 1-0.

At least in the case of Trinity, the small margin of difference may be explained by the fact that Trinity's Jeremy Siau received a second yellow card in the 28th minute when Trinity was already up 1-0 and they had to play a man down for the remaining 62 minutes.

Wash. U also had some difficulty with Rhodes, going down 1-0 in the third minute.  It didn't score until the 52nd minute and found the game winner a few minutes later.

SKUD

Quote from: jumpshot on November 18, 2025, 02:27:54 PMHey Sierra, one of the best natural grass soccer fields for decades in America is at Williams College, also in a beautiful mountain setting. Adjacent natural grass field reserved for the women's team is also a gem. In extreme weather soccer games can be moved to the artificial surface of the lighted football field on rare occasions. You would enjoy the experience should you ever have the opportunity.





Not

SKUD

I'm hoping it's a hot day at Trinity for the game and the Trinity coach sends his boys on the bus for air-conditioning and comes back late for the second half again

Ron Boerger

Quote from: SKUD on November 18, 2025, 05:54:12 PMI'm hoping it's a hot day at Trinity for the game and the Trinity coach sends his boys on the bus for air-conditioning and comes back late for the second half again

This snark is uncalled for, not to mention being done to death - let it go already.  And the game's at WashU.

D3Navy

Quote from: Kuiper on November 18, 2025, 03:05:09 PMWhile we find ways to pass the days waiting for the Round of 16 to start, here are a few facts about Trinity and Wash U. (who play each other on Saturday at 1:30 pm central) that are probably only of interest to me:

1. These two teams have played before (although you find different information from each school):

Wash U. statesthat it has an 0-3 all-time record against Trinity, losing twice in San Antonio and once at home, scoring 1 goal in the three games and conceding 4

Trinity, on the other hand, states it it has a 7-1-1 all-time record against Wash U., and is on a 6 game winning streak against the Bears.

The difference?  Wash U's online records don't go back as far as Trinity's, which identifies their first match as a 2OT tie back in 1994.  I guess when your coach, Paul McGinlay, is in his 35th season, he's effectively the program historian and inputted his pre-Live Stats records into the system at some point.

They both agree that the last time the two teams played was on 8/31/14, when Trinity won 1-0 in San Antonio.

2.  Wash U. has 3 players from Houston (and 5 total from Texas), while Trinity has only 1 player from Houston (and he was a transfer student from Kenyon).  None of Wash. U's Texans, however, are from places like "Dripping Springs, Texas" (like Adam Knutsen), "Flower Mound, Texas" (like Joey Perryman), or "Round Rock, Texas" (like Daniel Urquidi).  To be fair, Wash. U might list them as coming from Austin or Dallas/Fort Worth.

3.  Wash U. and Trinity have at least 1 set of former HS Soccer teammates on their teams (and possibly 2).

Trinity's Zach Anderson and Wash. U's Quentin Wallace were teammates on the high school varsity soccer team at Davis Senior High School in Davis, CA in 2021-22.  The team was 14-3 and lost in the semifinals of the State DI championships. 

Also, Wash U's James Whitehurst and Trinity's Jack Madsen both went to Highland Park High School in Dallas, but I think they missed each other on Varsity by a year.

4.  Both teams have elite defenses

Wash U. has only allowed 13 goals all season for a Teams Goals Against Average of 0.72

Trinity has only allowed 12 goals all season for a Team Goals Against Average of 0.63

Wash U., however, has allowed 143 shots (7.9/game), compared with Trinity allowing 120 shots (6.3/game).  Plus, Wash U. has allowed a much higher opponent shots on goal percentage (.483) than Trinity (.325).  As a result, Wash. U. goalkeepers have had to make 56 saves, compared with 27 for Trinity's keepers.

5.  Trinity has scored more than Wash U by a decent margin

Trinity has scored 51 goals (2.68/game), while Wash U. has scored 38 goals (2.11/game).

Why?  Two data points that offer possible explanations

a. Trinity has taken a lot more shots (340 total and 17.9/game) than Wash. U (254 and 14.1/game)

Wash U. actually has a slightly higher shots on goal percentage (.461 to .453), but has hit only 117 shots on goal, compared to 154 for Trinity

b. Trinity got into more dangerous spots offensively

Trinity had 12 PKs and scored on 11 of them, while Wash U. only had 1 PK all season (likely reflecting the fact that Trinity engages in a lot more intricate passing and movement within the box than most teams)

Trinity also took 149 corners compared to 125 for Wash U., which is probably a byproduct of taking more shots.

6.  Wash U. and Trinity have one common opponent in 2025 - Rhodes

Although they both beat Rhodes, neither did it easily. Despite Rhodes finishing 3-8-3, Wash. U only beat Rhodes 2-1 and Trinity only beat Rhodes 1-0.

At least in the case of Trinity, the small margin of difference may be explained by the fact that Trinity's Jeremy Siau received a second yellow card in the 28th minute when Trinity was already up 1-0 and they had to play a man down for the remaining 62 minutes.

Wash. U also had some difficulty with Rhodes, going down 1-0 in the third minute.  It didn't score until the 52nd minute and found the game winner a few minutes later.

Best post ever!  Thanks for the terrific analysis!

D3Navy

Quote from: SKUD on November 18, 2025, 05:54:12 PMI'm hoping it's a hot day at Trinity for the game and the Trinity coach sends his boys on the bus for air-conditioning and comes back late for the second half again

As we say in the Navy - hope is not a strategy.

Futbolguy

Quote from: Freddyfud on November 17, 2025, 09:29:26 PM
Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on November 17, 2025, 05:47:26 PM
Quote from: Freddyfud on November 17, 2025, 04:55:53 PMSomething I noticed unsurprisingly is the level of keeper play as a determinant for post season success. Some obvious examples are Silvester and Landa in the battle of Vegas last year. Others are Will Joseph for the Generals and the cinderella run of Washington College with Anthony Pinto 2 years ago to get to the final four.   

I think at this level consistent fundamentals such as positioning and ball distribution are just a given. What seems to set apart the shot stoppers above is the ability to make some saves destined for a goal, and not just PKs.  A challenging save at a critical time can change the momentum and ultimately the outcome of the game.

At Wesleyan yesterday in a game featuring rain, hail and leaves senior GK Travis Holiday for Rowan came up with this:

If that ball goes in Wesleyan is up 1-0 in the 21st minute of the game, and the outcome could have been very different.

Facing the 11th ranked team in scoring offense at 3 goals per game in Emory the Profs may need a few of these saves Saturday.

Absolutely agree. Great save by Rowan.

You also can clearly say that Wes could have hung in there for quite awhile, but for the two clear keeper flubs which sunk its chances. One mistake Wes may have been able to overcome, but the second in first min of the 2nd half not so much. Definitely goes both ways.

Son was a keeper through his college years and he was not perfect, but knew that one mistake his team could manage.  2 not so much.

Also, I think the Wes field played a part. The keeper area after three games in wet weather seemed to be compromised (not like back in our days though where it often was a mud pit). Once again the advantage of playing on turf. I am not sure what the cost of turf v. grass. However, if you have grass you really, really have to invest in keeping it up. Otherwise, grass just becomes another factor in game teams have to deal with that they don't have to on turf. Only maybe a 6-10 places across D3 have grass that is in great shape like W&L, Dickinson, McDaniel and probably a few others. FYI, W&L and Dickinson is only recent as they used to have horrible grass fields.

Bringing lacrosse into the conversation which the grass does not always make a huge difference except around the goal area. High level lacrosse has greatly improved on turf from my days in the 80's. Much more about talent and speed than lucky/unlucky bounces. Most, if not all play on turf, and the games are much better especially around the goal mouth.

I know some will say "both teams had to play on the grass" argument. That is a cop out imo. In many cases on fields not kept up or weather compromised the fields, luck plays a big part. Not so much on turf. I much rather have skill and talent make the difference. In the Wes/Rowan game, I definitely think the keeper area played a big part in the first goal. 2nd not so much.
The weather and field conditions definitely played a part.  I genuinely felt bad for the unlucky Wesleyan keeper.  But my point was that shot so early in the game could have been a turning point for Wesleyan in a game that otherwise was fairly equal.  Will never know of course.

And yet Wes keeper got second team NESCAC?  He was average all year.  saw the 2 goals - weak at best

Bucket

Quote from: SKUD on November 18, 2025, 05:54:12 PMI'm hoping it's a hot day at Trinity for the game and the Trinity coach sends his boys on the bus for air-conditioning and comes back late for the second half again

LOL.