2026 NCAA Tournament

[Greek Tragedy]

I hear ya, Ralph. I guess, in hindsight, I think the nerds came to the conclusion that it could've worked out with the same amount of flights. Yes, huge difference, IMO.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

It helps to host. Hosts went 30-1 the 1st weekend.

I think it depends on the year.  We usually have at one host lose the first night (Montclair) and then one or two the second.  Endicott was close.  Hood could've easily lost - Redlands shot so poorly in the second half, that should've come down to the end.  Emory was close.  WashU was close.

There's an advantage to being at home, for sure, but you also have the advantage of generally being favored in those games to begin with, due to seeding.  I think NPI better seeds the tournament, even if its not perfect.

... but was a 3,000 mile flight across 3 earlier time zones a factor against Redlands, versus sending Hood (and 2 other schools) to the West Coast?

We geographic orphans/island conferences are a little sensitive about this issue.

I mean, that definitely had something to do with it, right?  Bridgeland hasn't been quiet about his feelings that if they'd hosted they would've advanced - and it certainly would've been easier to do.

The refs were not great in that game.  I thought they were pros and adjusted well overall.  Neither team liked how the game was officiated (Hood was in a ton of foul trouble all game), but obviously that kind of officiating always hurts Redlands more than their opponent.

At the same time, Redlands was getting good shots and o-boards, and everything they needed to win.  There were a ton of empty possessions and missed layups down the stretch.

Yes, Redlands would've had an easier time at home.  They should've had that opportunity.  The committee missed on that.  At the same time, Redlands could've won that game exactly how it was, foul trouble and all.  They missed shots.

[Ralph Turner]

... and Hood hit their FTs down the stretch.

[lmitzel]

It helps to host. Hosts went 30-1 the 1st weekend.

That is just a huge advantage, wonder what it has been like the first weekend the past 5 years.

I went back just to last year's, and hosts went 22-8 if I counted right. I'd have to do more digging to see how stuff was pre-NPI.

[ziggy]

It seems there were more upsets in years past. 15 out of 16 seems really high. You are obviously right, hosting means you're supposed to be favored, so it's no surprise the winning % is usually pretty high for hosts. Well deserved too. 

You are right about fewer upsets, and it wasn't just among hosts.

This last weekend saw favorites out-perform expectation according to D3 Datacast efficiency ratings win probabilities by about 2.5 wins each day. This was a flip from the first weekend last year when underdogs out-performed by about 3.5 wins each day.

Interesting that while upsets were down this year, it brings things pretty well in line with expectations over a two year span.