Week 1 Rankings (guess)
1. CNU 3-0
2. MSU 3-0
3. Salisbury 3-0
4. Stockton 3-0
5. TCNJ 3-0 (weak SOS, but win over Roanoke)
6. Methodist 2-0-1
7. Birmingham Southern 3-0 (weak SOS, but they got love last year)
8. Maryville 2-1 (loss to MSU beat Centre)
9. Virginia Wesleyan 2-1 (loss to CNU but other wins not as strong)
10 Rutgers-Camden. 2-1 (loss to Salisbury but other wins not as strong)
Big games for week 2
Salisbury at Virginia Wesleyan
Methodist at Virginia Wesleyan
Stevens Tech at TCNJ
CNU at Rutgers-Camden
Centre vs Emory
Birmingham Southern vs Washington (MO)
Massey Ratings:
1. MSU (12) 2-0 one result not posted
2. CNU (13) 2-0 one result not posted
3. Stockton (26) 3-0
4. Rutgers-Newark (27) one loss not posted which would drop them
5. Salisbury St. (28)
6. Rutgers-Camden (38)
7. TCNJ (48)
8. Methodist (62)
9. Berry (67) loss not posted
10. Rowan (74)
-------------------------------
11. Emory (83)
12. Mary Washington (87)
1. MSU
2. CNU
3. TCNJ
4. RUC
5. Salisbury
5. Stockton
7. Maryville
8. Mary Washington
9. RUN
10 Frostburg St
---------------------
11 Birmingham southern
Just off the top of my head... Will look more into it tomorrow.
Salisbury probably deserved at least a tie vs. Bridgewater today, but BC was scrappy and found the net on a shot off a defender. That's the game. At this point -- judging by today's play -- the Gulls have some work to do. They miss the speed they had with Benjamin Aryeetey on the flanks and aren't as solid (yet) or as physical across the back. Runikera will do a nice job in the middle and can be both a distributor and a tough defensive presence.
One thing you have to admire about De Bartolo is his commitment to his four-year players and making transfers earn their minutes. Doling out those minutes on his traditionally deep squad gets a bit tougher if juco Leslie Umunna can build on some of the spark he showed ... and be fit enough for more time. Big, strong, fast kid. A handful to handle for any back line.
Some frustrated U-9 coach from Bridgewater in the stands kept yelling for their boys to "pressure the keeper." Kind of silly when Salisbury had a poised senior like Staedli in there.
NSCAA Rankings Projection:
1. CNU 7-0-1
W @ Methodist 2-0. W Greensboro 2-1 (2OT)
2. MSU 6-1
W Haverford 3-2. L Oneonta St 1-2
3. Salisbury 5-1
W @ Washington. W Neumann 1-0
4. Stockton 6-1
W @ SUNY Purchase 4-1. W Ramapo 1-0
5. Rowan 6-1
W @ Messiah 4-2
6. Birmingham Southern 7-0-1
W @ Covenant 2-1. W Anderson 4-2. W Brooklyn 2-1
7. Rutgers-Newark 7-2
W Mt St Mary 4-1. W TCNJ 3-2
8. Rutgers-Camden 5-1-1
W Cabrini 1-0ot, W @ WPU 3-1
9. Mary Washington 7-1
W NCWU 2-0. W Roanoke 3-0
10. Maryville 5-1-1
W Sewage. T Methodist 2-2
--------------------------------------------------
11. Lynchburg 4-1-1
W @ Averett. T Randolph 2-2
12. TCNJ. 5-1-2
T @ FDU-Florham 2-2. L @ Rutgers-Newark
13. Kean 7-1
W @ Marywood 4-0. W DeSales 3-0
Dropped out: TCNJ after 0-1-1.
Lastguyoffthebench Rankings
1. CNU
2. MSU
3. Salisbury
4. RUC
5. Stockton
6. RUN
7. Rowan
8. Mary Washington
9. TCNJ
10. Lynchburg
Will be interesting to see how voters place Rutgers-Newark, Camden, and Rowan...
Newark beats ranked TCNJ, Rowan with win at Messiah, but bad loss at SLU. Camden with win over regionally ranked Cabrini and road win over WPU with seemingly no reward for drawing vs 1 in region, CNU.
NJAC most likely a two bid league with slight chance of a third...
Looks to be one of the tighter races in a while.
Massey Ratings (Rank) [SOS]
1. MSU (9) [93]
2. CNU (11) [116]
3. Rowan (19) [19]
4. Rutgers-Newark (28) [35]
5. Stockton (30) [17]
6. Rutgers-Camden (41) [68]
7. Kean (47) [263]
8. Salisbury (55) [75]
9. TCNJ (57) [140]
10. Lynchburg (81) [238]
-------------------------------
11. Frostburg St (91) [247]
12. Birmingham Southern (93) [261]
Watched Greensboro @ CNU and CNU was fortunate to win in double OT. The game winner was a beautiful strike but they have some lapses on defense that can be exploited.
York's decline from greatness. Probably the best team to have never won a championship, IMO....
2005: 18-2-3 (55GF / 19 GA): Losses- Messiah 1-2, Salisbury 0-1 in the same week. Draws- @ Stevenson, Arcadia, NJCU (NCAA tourney)
2006: 20-0-3 (60GF / 10 GA): Draws- @ Messiah 1-1, @ Gettysburg 0-0, Wheaton (IL) 0-0 (NCAA tourney).
2007: 21-3-1 (83GF / 19 GA): Losses- Salisbury 0-1, @ Salisbury 0-2, Middlebury 0-2 (NCAA Tourney). Draws @ Amherst 0-0 (NCAA Tourney) Beat Messiah 2-1
2008: 18-0-2 (59GF / 3 GA): Draws- Wesley 0-0, JHU 0-0 (NCAA Tourney). Won at Messiah 2-1.
2009: 17-1-5 (59GF / 12 GA): Losses- CNU 0-1. Draws - @ Medialle 1-1, Salisbury 2-2, @ Mary Washington 0-0, @ JHU 0-0, Williams 1-1 (NCAA Tourney).
Home Record: 56-4-5 (L: Messiah, Salisbury 2x, CNU)
Away/Neutral: 38-2-9 (L: Salisbury, Middlebury)
I was at York v Williams in 2009. Great game and York was unlucky not to advance. They were 1 PK away from doing so but the kid hit it high and the rest is history. That was a very skilled team that year and especially their CM was an impressive player as he was extremely technical
Was that the team with John Ports? Think they ended up losing in the Elite 8 that year. Greatest team to not win a championship is pretty accurate IMO.
SOUTH ATLANTIC POLL #2
PREDICTION
1 Christopher Newport University 7-0-1. TH Lynchburg 1-1. 7-0-2 vs PSU-Harrisburg (3-1)
2 Montclair State University 6-1-0. DH CCNY 6-0. DA NJCU 4-0. 8-1-0 vs. Stockton (1-2)
3 Salisbury University 5-1-0. LH Eastern 0-1. 5-2-0 vs. York (1-1)
4 Stockton University 6-1-0. DH DelVal 3-0. LA Haverford 0-2. 7-2-0 @ Montclair St (2-1)
5 Birmingham-Southern College 8-0-1. DH LaGrange 4-0. 9-0-1 @ Millsaps 9/26 (1-3)
6 Rutgers University-Newark 7-2-0. DA St. Joseph's (LI) 2-1. 8-2-0 @ Rowan (2-1)
7 Rutgers University-Camden 5-1-1. DH NJCU 3-1, DH Miseri 7-1. 7-1-1 OFF
8 University Of Mary Washington 7-1-0. LH Dickinson 1-3. 7-2-0 @ Wesley (3-0)
9 Rowan University 6-1-0. DH Berkeley (NJ) 6-0. 7-1-0 vs. Rutgers-Newark (1-2)
10 The College of New Jersey 5-1-2. DH Drew 3-1. 6-1-2 vs. Kean (2-2)
Also receiving votes: Maryville College (6), Hampden-Sydney College (1), Frostburg State University (1)
Maryville 5-1-1. IDLE 5-1-1 @ Ferrum
Hampden-Sydney 5-1-0. LA Randolph 2-3 5-2-0 vs. Guilford
Frostburg St. 5-1-0 LAHood 1-2 5-2-0 @ Marymount
Kean 7-1-0 DH SUNY-Purchase 8-1-0 @ TCNJ
With 6 NJAC teams in the rankings for week 2, Kean could unseat TCNJ in the next Poll with a win. There will be plenty of movement with the games on the card for the weekend. Stockton at MSU is a huge matchup with NCAA regional implications. Rowan gets Rutgers-Newark at home for an important stronghold in conference standings as YOU MUST not give points away at home. We also will find out if the cupcakes have prepared Kean for a semi battle tested TCNJ.
The NJAC could possibly get 4 teams into the NCAA's as long as those top 4 beat who they are supposed to beat and just kind of beat each other or draw. Without having seen these teams and with spotty live streaming I will guess MSU,RUC,Rowan and TCNJ. Kean's schedule is horrific and looks to have an over inflated record. I will guess Stockton falls short and TCNJ and Rowan are on the bubble.
Millsaps defeats Birmingham Southern 3-1.
Mary Washington loses at Wesley.
Would expect Salisbury and Rutgers-Newark to fall a few spots, Rowan and Camden to bump up. Kean and Lynchburg to close it out with Birmingham Southern and TCNJ dropping out.
With Rowan putting up a TD on Newark, this early NJAC tilt vs Rutgers-Camden will be a better game than I expected. Camden lost at Rowan 1-0 last season in 89th min...
Poll 3 Prediction
1. CNU
2. MSU
3. Rowan
4. Rutgers-Camden
5. Salisbury
6. Kean
7. Birmingham Southern
8. Maryville
9. Stockton
10. Lynchburg
Oglethorpe sitting quietly under the radar at 6-2-1. Losses to Denison 0-1, Wheaton (IL) 1-2, and draw vs Emory 0-0.
Millsaps lost to Emory yesterday, sitting at 6-2
Poll 3 (with updated results as of 10/1)
1 Christopher Newport University 8-0-2 @ York (IDLE)
2 Montclair State University 11-1-0 @ TCNJ (DH Brooklyn 8-0, DH WPU 2-1 OT)
3 Salisbury University 6-3-0 @ Southern Virginia (LH Catholic 0-1)
4 Rutgers University-Camden 8-1-1 @ Kean (DH Rowan 1-0)
5 Rowan University 8-2-0 @ Ramapo (LA Rutgers-Camden 0-1)
6 Maryville College 8-1-1 @ W&J (DA William Peace 7-1, DH LaGrange 9-0)
7 Rutgers University-Newark 9-3-0 vs NJCU (DH Ramapo 1-0)
8 Kean University 10-1-0 vs Rutgers-Camden (DH NJCU 5-0)
9 Lynchburg College 5-1-2 @ Bridgewater (VA) (DA Hampden-Sydney 2-0)
10 Stockton University 8-3-0 @ WPU (DH TCNJ 3-1)
Also receiving votes:
The College of New Jersey (7), 6-3-2 vs MSU (LA Stockton 1-3)
Birmingham-Southern College (6), 8-1-1 vs Rhodes (IDLE)
Emory University (5), 5-3-1 @ Chicago (DA Millsaps 2-0)
University Of Mary Washington (2), 7-3-0 vs Marymount (IDLE)
Centre College (2) 5-4-1 @ Berry (DH Wabash 4-3)
8 of the top 10 in the region head on the road this weekend. Weather forecast could pose a problem... Expect there to be lots of movement within the NSCAA rankings.
How far will Salisbury drop after another blemish? Will Emory crack the top 10 with a win at Chicago? Can TCNJ hold on vs MSU?
MASSEY RATINGS AS OF 10/1/15 (SOS) (SSF = SOS including future games)
8 MSU (123) (48)
16 Rowan (14) (24)
19 Rutgers-Camden (68) (25)
22 CNU (115) (109)
31 Kean (268) (119)
35 Stockton (28) (34)
54 Rutgers-Newark (90) (50)
69 Lynchburg (172) (205)
82 TCNJ (78) (56)
88 Mary Washington (94) (95)
----------------------------------------
92 Salisbury (51) (91)
95 Centre (38) (86)
97 Maryville (294) (278)
101 Frostburg St (248) (175)
120 Millsaps (240) (214)
122 Emory (182) (65)
Salisbury is way too high at #3...I am assuming this was the last poll but with now updated records? I think they fall to #9. They are wayyyyyyy overrated. I watched the Salisbury vs Susquehanna game earlier this year and was not impressed at all. They ended up winning 2-1. Once again, not impressed at all.
This would be my rankings before heading into the weekend slate of games:
1 Christopher Newport University 8-0-2
2 Montclair State University 11-1-0
3 Rutgers University-Camden 8-1-1
4 Rowan University 8-2-0
5 Kean University 10-1-0
6 Maryville College 8-1-1
7 Rutgers University-Newark 9-3-0
8 Stockton University 8-3
9 Lynchburg College 5-1-2
10 Salisbury University 6-3-0
My Rankings heading into this weekend:
1 MSU
2 RUC
3 CNU
4 Rowan
5 Stockton
6 Kean
7 RUN
8 Salisbury
9 Maryville
10 Lynchburg
As usual, I'll do the projections on Sunday night/Monday morning but I'm thinking it will look like this
1. CNU
2. MSU
3. RUC
4. Rowan
5. Maryville
6. Rutgers-Newark (2-0 week still won't jump a Maryville 3-0 week)
7. Kean (depending on Camden result. Don't think a close loss would see them fall). Will voters value 3 loss Salisbury ahead of a 2 loss Kean, bc SAL win over RUC)
8. Lynchburg
9. Stockton (hard for them to move up if teams ahead keep winning)
10. Salisbury
NCAA Regional Rankings Projections Eyeball Test:
Primary Criteria (not listed in priority order)
•Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents
•Division III head-to-head competition
•Results versus common Division III opponents
•Results versus ranked Division III teams
•Division III Strength-of-schedule
Secondary Criteria (not listed in priority order)
•Non-Division III win-loss percentage
•Results versus common non-Division III opponents
•Non-Division III Strength-of-schedule
Team 1 OWP .468 RvR 0-0-2 RR 8-0-2 (.900) 3 CNU
Team 2 OWP .545 RvR 1-0-0 RR 12-1-0 (.923) 1 MSU
Team 3 OWP .578 RvR 1-1-1 RR 8-1-1 (.850) 2 Rutgers-Camden
Team 4 OWP .569 RvR 1-2-0 RR 8-2-0 (.800) 4 Rowan
Team 5 OWP .581 RvR 1-2-0 RR 7-3-0 (.700) 5 Stockton
Team 6 OWP .385 RvR 1-0-0 RR 10-1-0 (.909)
Team 7 OWP .468 RvR 2-2-0 RR 9-3-0 (.750) 7 Rutgers-Newark
Team 8 OWP .511 RvR 2-1-0 RR 6-3-0 (.666) 6 Salisbury
Team 9 OWP .475 RvR 0-0-1 RR 5-1-2 (.750)
Team10 OWP .396 RvR 0-1-0 RR 7-1-1 (.833)
Team11 OWP .639 RvR 1-2-0 RR 6-3-2 (.636) 8 TCNJ
Team12 OWP .524 RvR 0-1-0 RR 7-3-0 (.700)
Not wasting my time on the OOWP, so this data is probably worthless...
Simply just filtered highest to lowest; OWP, Win %, RvR win %
1. MSU (OWP 4 + Win % 1 + RvR win % 1) = 6
2. Rutgers-Camden (OWP 2 + Win % 3 + RvR win % 3t) = 8
3. Rowan (OWP 3 + Win % 4 + RvR win % 5t) = 12
4. Stockton (OWP 1 + Win % 6 + RvR win % 5t) = 12
5. CNU (OWP 6t + Win % 2 + RvR win % 5t) = 13
6. Salisbury (OWP 5 + Win % 7 + RvR win % 2) = 14
7. Rutgers-Newark (OWP 6t + Win % 5 + RvR win % 3t) =14
---------------------------
8. TCNJ
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 02, 2015, 04:02:47 PM
NCAA Regional Rankings Projections Eyeball Test:
Primary Criteria (not listed in priority order)
•Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents
•Division III head-to-head competition
•Results versus common Division III opponents
•Results versus ranked Division III teams
•Division III Strength-of-schedule
Secondary Criteria (not listed in priority order)
•Non-Division III win-loss percentage
•Results versus common non-Division III opponents
•Non-Division III Strength-of-schedule
Team 1 OWP .468 RvR 0-0-2 RR 8-0-2 (.900) 3 CNU
Team 2 OWP .545 RvR 1-0-0 RR 12-1-0 (.923) 1 MSU
Team 3 OWP .578 RvR 1-1-1 RR 8-1-1 (.850) 2 Rutgers-Camden
Team 4 OWP .569 RvR 1-2-0 RR 8-2-0 (.800) 4 Rowan
Team 5 OWP .581 RvR 1-2-0 RR 7-3-0 (.700) 5 Stockton
Team 6 OWP .385 RvR 1-0-0 RR 10-1-0 (.909)
Team 7 OWP .468 RvR 2-3-0 RR 9-3-0 (.750) 7 Rutgers-Newark
Team 8 OWP .511 RvR 2-1-0 RR 6-3-0 (.666) 6 Salisbury
Team 9 OWP .475 RvR 0-0-1 RR 5-1-2 (.750)
Team10 OWP .396 RvR 0-1-0 RR 7-1-1 (.833)
Team11 OWP .639 RvR 1-2-0 RR 6-3-2 (.636) 8 TCNJ
Team12 OWP .524 RvR 0-1-0 RR 7-3-0 (.700)
Not wasting my time on the OOWP, so this data is probably worthless...
1. MSU
2. Rutgers-Camden
3. CNU
4. Rowan
5. Stockton
6. Salisbury
7. Rutgers-Newark
---------------------------
8. TCNJ
Where are you getting Team 1-12 information? Is this from last year? I am utterly confused but I have never been good with #'s. I can guess #'s.
Teams 1-12 were compilation of Massey Ratings and NSCAA Rankings.
Pulled the OWP from Massey Ratings with a bit of data collection.
Hard to imagine CNU being ranked 5th, but they have an incredibly low SOS and no wins vs ranked (draw vs Rutgers-Camden and draw vs Lynchburg IF they get ranked).
Also, records vs ranked was a total guess, but I'm confident in those selections.
Poll 3 (with updated results as of 10/5)
1 Christopher Newport University 8-0-3 @ York TA 1-1
2 Montclair State University 11-1-0 @ TCNJ PPD (DH Brooklyn 8-0, DH WPU 2-1 OT)
3 Salisbury University 6-3-0 @ Southern Virginia PPD (LH Catholic 0-1)
4 Rutgers University-Camden 8-2-1 @ Kean LA 2-3 1ot (DH Rowan 1-0)
5 Rowan University 9-2-0 @ Ramapo DA 3-0 (LA Rutgers-Camden 0-1)
6 Maryville College 9-1-1 @ W&J DA 5-0 (DA William Peace 7-1, DH LaGrange 9-0)
7 Rutgers University-Newark 10-3-0 vs NJCU DH 2-0 (DH Ramapo 1-0)
8 Kean University 11-1-0 vs Rutgers-Camden DH 3-2 1ot (DH NJCU 5-0)
9 Lynchburg College 6-1-2 @ Bridgewater (VA) DA 2-0 (DA Hampden-Sydney 2-0)
10 Stockton University 8-3-0 @ WPU PPD (DH TCNJ 3-1)
Also receiving votes:
The College of New Jersey (7), 6-3-2 vs MSU PPD (LA Stockton 1-3)
Birmingham-Southern College (6), 8-1-2 vs Rhodes TH 1-1 (IDLE)
Emory University (5), 6-3-1 @ Chicago DA 1-0 (DA Millsaps 2-0)
University Of Mary Washington (2), 8-3-0 vs Marymount DA 3-0 (IDLE)
Centre College (2) 5-4-1 @ Berry PPD (DH Wabash 4-3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Poll 4 Predictions:
1) MSU
2) CNU
3) Kean
4) Rutgers-Camden
5) Rowan
6) Maryville
7) Rutgers-Newark
8) Lynchburg
9) Stockton
10) Salisbury
--------------------------
11) Emory
12) TCNJ
13) Mary Washington
14) Centre
15) Birmingham-Southern
Is Kean for real? Don't know much about them.
I saw them in the 2nd half vs Camden with the wind at their backs and they looked solid to me. 11-1-0 with a tremendously weak out of conference schedule is interesting, but they seem to be playing well in the NJAC so far. If they get to 3 or 4 losses they will be outside the bubble for sure
Decent target player, others with some speed. Conditions were horrible for the game.
MASSEY RATINGS AS OF 10/5
1. MSU (4)
2. Rowan (11)
3. Kean (24)
4. Rutgers-Camden (30)
5. CNU (34)
6. Stockton (40)
7. Rutgers-Newark (49)
-----------------------------
8. Lynchburg (71)
9. Maryville (77)
10.Mary Washington (79)
-----------------------------
11. TCNJ (83)
12. Salisbury (91)
13. Centre (93)
14. Frostburg St (100)
15. Emory (105)
Can't say I disagree with the computers here. The top 7 are likely to be the NCAA regional ranked with Lynchburg, Salisbury, TCNJ lurking. Emory could make a huge jump with the UAA schedule upcoming.
Hard to get a handle on Kean due to that weak non-conference slate. I figured they would be found out by Rutgers-Camden, but with that win you can't dismiss them. We'll have to see if they can maintain this with the remaining NJAC schedule.
NJAC Standings
Kean 3-0 1.000 12 3 11-1-0 0.917 49 8 9-1 Won 9
Montclair State 3-0 1.000 9 2 11-1-0 0.917 48 10 9-1 Won 5
Rutgers-Camden 3-1 0.750 9 5 8-2-1 0.773 31 10 7-2-1 Lost 1
Rutgers-Newark 3-1 0.750 8 9 10-3-0 0.769 33 18 9-1 Won 2
Rowan 2-1 0.667 10 2 9-2-0 0.818 38 11 8-2 Won 1
Stockton 2-1 0.667 5 4 8-3-0 0.727 23 11 7-3 Won 1
Looking like a definite 3 bid league with a chance for a 4th...
10/6
Frostburg St at Mary Washington
10/7
Haverford at Rutgers-Camden
Salisbury at St. Mary's
Rowan at Swarthmore
Rutgers-Newark at FDU-Florham
10/10
MSU at Rowan
Frostburg St at CNU
Kean at WPU (upset special)
Washington U at Emory
Rutgers-Newark at Stockton
Mary Washington at York
NCW at Maryville
Lynchburg at Virginia Wesleyan
Methodist at Covenant
The NCAA Regional Rankings will be released October 22. Plenty of matchups beforehand that could certainly shift the placement of teams. According to the Pre-Championship Manual, only 7 schools will be ranked. I would expect the NJAC to be highly featured with the start to the season thus far.
1. MSU 11-1-0 (RvR: 2-1; Ws - Haverford, Stockton. L - Oneonta St).
2. RUC 8-2-1 (RvR: 2-1-1; Ws - Cabrini, Rowan. L - Salisbury. T - CNU).
3. CNU 8-0-3 (RvR: 0-0-2; T - RUC, *Lynchburg)
4. Rowan 9-2-0 (RvR: 2-2; Ws - Messiah, RUN, Ls - SLU, RUC)
5. Salisbury 6-3-0 (RvR: 2-1; Ws - RUC, MM, Ls - Eastern)
6. Stockton 8-3-0 (RvR: 0-3-0; L - RPI, MSU, Haverford)
7. TCNJ 6-3-2 (RvR: Ws - Stevens Tech, Drew; Ls - RUN, Kean, Stockton
7. Lynchburg 6-1-2 (RvR: 0-0-1; T - CNU)
7. RUN 9-3-0 (RvR: 2-3*; Ws- TCNJ, Cortland St; Ls - MM, UR, Rowan)
7. Kean 12-1-0 (RvR: 2-0*; RUC, TCNJ if they get ranked)
7. Maryville 9-1-1 (RvR: 0-1-0; L - MSU)
--------------------------------------------------------------
Pretty clear for the top 5 with about 6-7 teams bunched together fighting for the final 2 spots.
Rutgers-Newark vs a bunch of bubble regional ranked teams: Merchant Marine, Rochester, Cortland St, JHU, Rowan, TCNJ. For that reason I would believe they will be anywhere from 5 to unranked.
TCNJ has beaten strong teams in other regions, SIT 2-1 and Drew 3-1, but were beaten by Kean and Stockton 4-1 and 3-1, respectively.
Maryville still has NCW, Greensboro, and underachieving Covenant remaining. Given there minimal chances at RvR, they cannot afford any blemishes and must win the USA South AQ.
South Atlantic Overall Rankings as of 10/5/15
1) Kean 12-1 0.923
2) Montclair State 11-1 0.917
3) Maryville (Tenn.) 9-1-1 0.864
4) Christopher Newport 8-0-3 0.864
5) Rowan 9-2 0.818
6) Birmingham-Southern 8-1-2 0.818
7) Frostburg State 8-2 0.800
8) Millsaps 8-2 0.800
9) Lynchburg 6-1-2 0.778
10)Rutgers-Camden 8-2-1 0.773 31
11)Rutgers-Newark 10-3 0.769
12)Stockton 9-3 0.750
13)Oglethorpe 7-2-1 0.750
14)Mary Washington 8-3 0.727
15)Washington and Lee 6-2-1 0.722
16)Salisbury 6-3 0.667
17)St. Mary's (Md.) 6-3-1 0.650
18)Emory 6-3-1 0.650
19)TCNJ 6-3-2 0.636
Most likely the cutoff for ranking the top 7, IMO.
I really don't understand how Salisbury is so high in the regional and national rankings. If I disagree with one thing this would be it. There are 5 other teams I would put ahead of Salisbury at #3 in the region and they certainly shouldn't be ranked in the top 25 IMO.
Wednesday 10.14.15
Ramapo @ New Jersey City Conference Game 3:00 PM
Kean University @ Montclair State Conference Game 7:00 PM Live Stats
William Paterson University @ Rutgers-Newark Conference Game 7:30 PM
Stockton University @ Rowan Conference Game 7:30 PM Live Stats
Rutgers-Camden @ The College of NJ Conference Game 7:30 PM Ewing, NJ
Saturday10.17.15Men's Soccer
Montclair State @ Rutgers-Camden Conference Game 1:00 PM Camden, NJ
Rowan University @ William Paterson University
College of New Jersey @ Ramapo Conference Game 1:00 PM Mahwah, NJ Live Stats
Rutgers-Newark @ Kean Conference Game 7:00 PM Union, NJ
Monday10.19.15
Stockton University @ William Paterson Conference Game 7:00 PM Wayne, N.J. Live Stats
Wednesday10.21.15
The College of NJ @ New Jersey City Conference Game 3:00 PM Jersey City, NJ
Rowan @ Kean Conference Game 7:30 PM Union, NJ
Make or break week for Kean and Rowan
With Camden losing to Randolph (ODAC deja vu from last season's 3-0 loss to Lynchburg at home), MSU becomes a must win. Slowly beginning to think the UAA is going to get 3 at-large bids. Those in the South Atlantic should be hoping for Emory to falter.
MASSEY RATINGS (SOS) as of 10/12/15
1) MSU (2) (50)
2) Rowan (17) (14)
3) Stockton (35) (47)
4) Rutgers-Newark (39) (72)
5) CNU (42) (145)
6) Kean (45) (224)
7) Rutgers-Camden (56) (52)
8) Maryville (69) (257)
9) Salisbury (75) (77)
10)Mary Washington (78) (75)
---------------------------------------
11)TCNJ (83) (48)
12)Oglethorpe (89) (216)
13)Lynchburg (95) (178)
14)Randolph (99) (92)
15)Emory (101) (157)
CNU out shooting St. Marys 10-1 with 2 left in the first half but trail 1-0 in the game. Upset alert?
I didn't even realized Wesley beat CNU....
MASSEY RANKINGS as of 10/19/15 (SOS)
4 MSU (44)
18 Kean (153)
21 Stockton (49)
28 Rowan (13)
45 Rutgers-Newark (93)
57 CNU (134)
59 TCNJ (47)
63 Salisbury (72)
69 Rutgers-Camden (37)
70 Lynchburg (176)
----------------------------
107 Emory (97)
Mary Washington, W&L, Randolph, York, Ogelthorpe, Maryville, Frostburg St are ahead of Emory in the rankings.
Kean could be 3-0 vs Ranked if TCNJ and Rutgers-Newark make their way on the list... They are very close to the .500 SOS, but that will all change once they play Rowan and Stockton, and the NJAC playoffs.
NCAA Rankings Projections
1. MSU
2. Stockton
3. Rowan
4. CNU
5. Kean*
6. Rutgers-Newark
7. TCNJ
*If Kean is not ranked, slide up TCNJ / Rutgers-Newark and add (Salisbury, Rutgers-Camden or an ODAC school) to the 7th slot.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 19, 2015, 11:07:03 AM
*If Kean is not ranked, slide everyone up and add Rutgers-Camden or an ODAC school to the 7th slot.
This is getting to be like football where the ODAC has 3 or 4 really good teams, a lot of competitive balance, and because of it no team that anyone things deserves to be ranked. Exciting for conference play, but hard to get recognition without the single outstanding team.
And yes, I also recognize the ODAC teams do not, by and large, play the most outstanding OOC schedule. Or take advantage of it when they do play the top teams.
Would probably be in this order; Lynchburg, W&L, Randolph.
South Atlantic Prediction
1 Kean (win over MSU and RUN)
2 Montclair State University (win over RUC)
3 Christopher Newport University (loss to Wesley)
4 Salisbury University (draw vs Marymount, win over MW)
5 Maryville College (win and draw this week)
6 Oglethorpe University (win and draw)
7 Stockton University (win over Rowan)
8 Rowan
9 TCNJ (win over RUC)
10 Lynchburg or Emory
York with a quiet 6-0-1 run last 7 and currently first place in the CAC with home games against bottom feeder Southern Virginia and mid-table St. Mary's...
The overvalued match of the day is Salisbury at CNU...
Rowan travels to Kean
Does York have any chance of being ranked this year if they keep up this pace? 6 losses is a lot but they play a tough schedule. Any thoughts? I am curious because Camden also has 6 losses so it would be a toss up between the two but I see Camden losing again before York does.
Ranked regionally? Possibly. Ranked through NSCAA or D3Soccer, no. York will get another crack at CNU and/or Salisbury, and Rutgers-Camden will have plenty of opportunities vs regionally ranked teams if they make the NJAC playoffs.
We will find out today if Salisbury is ranked. I'd guess they are on the bubble with their SOS. We, on the forum, believe the Gulls to be overvalued, so let's see what the data represents...
How do the NJAC playoffs work? Will Camden make the cut off? If it's top 6 then yes but if it's top 5 they will cut it close.
SCHOOL CPTS CONF OVERALL
MONTCLAIR 18 6-1 14-2
STOCKTON 16 5-1-1 13-3-1
KEAN 15 5-1 14-2
RUTGERS-NEWARK 13 4-2-1 13-4-1
RUTGERS-CAMDEN 12 4-3 9-6-1
ROWAN 9 3-3 12-4
TCNJ 6 2-4 8-4-2
RAMAPO 4 1-5-1 7-8-2
WILLIAM PATERSON 4 1-5-1 4-8-2
NEW JERSEY CITY 0 0-6 1-13
NJAC is six teams with top two seeds getting byes in the quarterfinals.
Top 6, with 1 and 2 getting a bye. TCNJ has some favorable match-ups.
I guess the NSCAA isn't releasing South Atlantic Rankings this week?
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 21, 2015, 11:14:26 AM
NJAC is six teams with top two seeds getting byes in the quarterfinals.
So the top 6 are pretty much set but seeds are up in the air. TCNJ has an outside chance of making it. But if they do, Rowan is probably who they swap with which would end their season. I can't see this being more than a 3 bid league. Depends how it shapes out but 3 max 2 for sure.
Rutgers-Newark is 4-2-1 and has an outside chance of failing to make it as well. They have Rutgers-Camden and MSU remaining.
Rowan is 3-3 (NJCU, Kean and TCNJ remaining, but beat RUN 7-1). Should finish atleast 4-4-1.
Sorry I meant to post this HERE..
Big win for Rutgers Newark over Stevens last night...I believe Stevens might be getting closer to AQ or bust as their resume is getting less and less impressive by the day....If RUN can go 2-0-1 or better yet 3-0-0 in their last three games they will be off the bubble IMO
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 21, 2015, 10:56:33 AM
How do the NJAC playoffs work? Will Camden make the cut off? If it's top 6 then yes but if it's top 5 they will cut it close.
SCHOOL CPTS CONF OVERALL
MONTCLAIR 18 6-1 14-2
STOCKTON 16 5-1-1 13-3-1
KEAN 15 5-1 14-2
RUTGERS-NEWARK 13 4-2-1 13-4-1
RUTGERS-CAMDEN 12 4-3 9-6-1
ROWAN 9 3-3 12-4
TCNJ 6 2-4 8-4-2
RAMAPO 4 1-5-1 7-8-2
WILLIAM PATERSON 4 1-5-1 4-8-2
NEW JERSEY CITY 0 0-6 1-13
Very top heavy league as the bottom 3 are way out of their league...
TCNJ has some work to do to catch Rowan but Rowan must beat Kean...
As far as Pool C's:
Personally if RUN wins out I like their resume very much plus their SOS and Record v Ranked will be very good.
MSU--Their resume is a bit thin to me and their Record v Ranked will be average. They will definitely get in but just saying.
Rutgers Camden is the sleeper. With Mike Ryan they have a guy that could take over the NJAC play-offs and steal the AQ..They are AQ or bust.
Stockton does not have enough GOOD wins but they are close
Kean IMO is close to getting itself off the bubble.
With TCNJ and Rutgers-Newark beating Stevens, it is just showing how strong the conference is this year.
Definitely think it's a 3 bid league...
We won't know if Kean is even in the consideration until these rankings come out. If we take away anything from this it would be that a soft schedule is okay IF the majority of the games are on the road (see Calvin).
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 21, 2015, 12:15:51 PM
With TCNJ and Rutgers-Newark beating Stevens, it is just showing how strong the conference is this year.
Definitely think it's a 3 bid league...
We won't know if Kean is even in the consideration until these rankings come out. If we take away anything from this it would be that a soft schedule is okay IF the majority of the games are on the road (see Calvin).
Kean does have the "soft" schedule to start but they certainly have backed that up with some very impressive conference wins that should elevate their ranking...My guess is today they will be #4-#6
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 21, 2015, 12:15:51 PM
With TCNJ and Rutgers-Newark beating Stevens, it is just showing how strong the conference is this year.
Definitely think it's a 3 bid league...
I agree the NJAC will have the AQ + 2 Pool C's and a possible 3rd depending upon who the AQ is.
My point exactly with Stevens. The NJAC is strong but to me Stevens has a lot of work to do...Their resume has serious holes and I believe they will need to win the empire 8, which BTW is not a given this year.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 19, 2015, 11:07:03 AM
Kean could be 3-0 vs Ranked if TCNJ and Rutgers-Newark make their way on the list... They are very close to the .500 SOS, but that will all change once they play Rowan and Stockton, and the NJAC playoffs.
NCAA Rankings Projections
1. MSU
2. Stockton
3. Rowan
4. CNU
5. Kean*
6. Rutgers-Newark
7. TCNJ
*If Kean is not ranked, slide up TCNJ / Rutgers-Newark and add (Salisbury, Rutgers-Camden or an ODAC school) to the 7th slot.
Mr.Right, I concur with your ranking of Kean and we shall soon find out...
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 21, 2015, 01:11:56 PM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 19, 2015, 11:07:03 AM
Kean could be 3-0 vs Ranked if TCNJ and Rutgers-Newark make their way on the list... They are very close to the .500 SOS, but that will all change once they play Rowan and Stockton, and the NJAC playoffs.
NCAA Rankings Projections
1. MSU
2. Stockton
3. Rowan
4. CNU
5. Kean*
6. Rutgers-Newark
7. TCNJ
*If Kean is not ranked, slide up TCNJ / Rutgers-Newark and add (Salisbury, Rutgers-Camden or an ODAC school) to the 7th slot.
Mr.Right, I concur with your ranking of Kean and we shall soon find out...
I would imagine Wash. Lee would be ahead of TCNJ no? Possibly York because of their SOS?
I would have Rutgers-Camden ahead of York. If Kean is not ranked than an ODAC school will be in... But I'd lean Lynchburg over W&L
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 21, 2015, 01:25:59 PM
I would have Rutgers-Camden ahead of York. If Kean is not ranked than an ODAC school will be in... But I'd lean Lynchburg over W&L
I forgot about Lynchburg! They are struggling in conference which is why they slipped my mind! And yes at the moment I would also have Camden ahead of York. I was thinking down the road since one would assume that York will end up better off than Camden record wise. Can't assume anything though. Lynchburg was my team to watch on NENCAC's watch list that he put together last week. Silly me!
South Atlantic In-Division Record Overall Record
1. Montclair St. 14-2-0 14-2-0
2. Stockton 12-3-1 12-3-1
3. Rowan 10-4-0 11-4-0
4. Salisbury 9-3-1 9-3-1
5. Kean 14-2-0 14-2-0
6. Rutgers-Newark 12-4-1 12-4-1
7. TCNJ 8-4-2 8-4-2
8. Christopher Newport 10-1-4 10-1-4
Rowan #3????
Rutgers-Camden will be sniffing the rankings if they can get results vs Stockton and Rutgers-Newark:
Would be: 3-4-1 vs ranked teams (having played every single team in the rankings)
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 21, 2015, 01:57:51 PM
Rowan #3????
That's where my math had 'em! Only had Salisbury and CNU in the wrong slots.
NJAC dominating the South Atlantic...5 of 7 teams....Still do not understand the Rowan ranking but oh well....
Rowan had the fifth highest SOS in the region at .585. Morevoer, they had the second best SOS of teams with a winning pct. over .650 (only Montclair St. being higher). These rankings are very numbers driven, always have been.
Yes but Rowan's Record v Ranked will show their true colors...It will not be good
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 21, 2015, 03:32:32 PM
Yes but Rowan's Record v Ranked will show their true colors...It will not be good
Is it me or did Rowan just beat Kean? What's the beef with Rowan? 3-3 vs ranked...just like Haverford. Why does Haverford get praised and Rowan not get praised when they have practically the same records? Rowan beat regionally ranked Newark 7-1!!!! SEVEN to ONE.
I posted that yesterday before Rowan beat Kean knucklehead....Try reading dates and times before responding....
Listen the NJAC is a mess....
Personally,
MSU resume lacks some bite to it but they will get in.
Kean should still be ok
RUN controls their own destiny if they can go 2-0-1 or 3-0-0
Rowan will be your bubble team
RUC has really disappointed but I get the feeling this team will get jacked come NJAC tournament time and could steal the AQ
Yes sorry didn't see the date don't get flustered. And Camden has so much potential. So sad to see them tank after making the title game in 13.
We won't know about this region until week 3 release of rankings. Too complicated! ;D
Camden has some work to do just to qualify for the NJAC tournament, 0-4 in their last 4 games with just one goal for isn't a good sign! I still think Montclair is the team to beat and Stockton is a dark horse with two huge games left against Kean and Camden. The next week should be pretty exciting!!
Shooter,
I wouldn't say Camden is tanking this season, they've just had a brutal schedule. They will have played every ranked team in the South Atlantic region, including ranked Haverford, a stingy Swat, and a Cabrini team that is solid (would be ranked if not for their weak SOS). They completely dominated Randolph in 3-0 loss. The dynamic of the game would have changed had a few balls bounced in their favor.
Sure it is AQ or bust for the Raptors, but I wouldn't count them out, because one the goals start coming they will be a force. Score on them first, however, you're likely to win.
Welcome to the boards, Ji Sung Park the Bus... I would agree that Stockton is a dark horse, but this year is the first in a long time where a team not named MSU or RUC could garner the AQ.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 23, 2015, 01:41:10 PM
Shooter,
I wouldn't say Camden is tanking this season, they've just had a brutal schedule. They will have played every ranked team in the South Atlantic region, including ranked Haverford, a stingy Swat, and a Cabrini team that is solid (would be ranked if not for their weak SOS). They completely dominated Randolph in 3-0 loss. The dynamic of the game would have changed had a few balls bounced in their favor.
Tanked by their standards/expectations. Any time you make it to the final then miss out the next 2 years that's harsh. Recruiting shouldn't be an issue when you make the final of NCAA's. Just wonder why they haven't been as successful because it seems like they have the talent to make a run but have come up short again this year.
I think the NJAC Top 6-7 teams are playing very well this year...Any one of them could possibly get the AQ...I like what I saw of Kean even if it was with a 40mph wind at their back...NJAC as a whole is better than the UAA this season and deserve the AQ + 2-3 bids....In reality they might get 1 or 2 depending on who wins the AQ
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on October 23, 2015, 01:44:08 PM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 23, 2015, 01:41:10 PM
Shooter,
I wouldn't say Camden is tanking this season, they've just had a brutal schedule. They will have played every ranked team in the South Atlantic region, including ranked Haverford, a stingy Swat, and a Cabrini team that is solid (would be ranked if not for their weak SOS). They completely dominated Randolph in 3-0 loss. The dynamic of the game would have changed had a few balls bounced in their favor.
Tanked by their standards/expectations. Any time you make it to the final then miss out the next 2 years that's harsh. Recruiting shouldn't be an issue when you make the final of NCAA's. Just wonder why they haven't been as successful because it seems like they have the talent to make a run but have come up short again this year.
Recruiting shouldn't be hard, but when you're located in the wonderful city of Camden, I would think it's a crapshoot.
If I lived in Jersey or wanted to go to a state school, I'd choose Stockton or MSU over Camden. Stockton's location and facilities are awesome.
I mean Rowan, Stockton, and Kean haven't been on the national map for years. Rowan lost in 2000 and Stockton won in 2001 and sort of fell by the wayside... Perhaps the revitalization of these programs is due in part to the fresh blood of coaching staff on all 3 of these programs. In my opinion, there is no reason why Stockton shouldn't have been nationally ranked consistently after 2001 due to their location and facilities. At any rate, this will make for excellent conference battles in the years to come and perhaps a future National Champion.
MSU didn't win the conference in 2011 or 2013 and ended up going to the Final 4 and Elite 8, respectively. In terms of strength I think it's a close second to the NESCAC.
I believe this year we will see an NJAC school in the Final 4 (6 different programs have made it there from this conference; Rutgers-Newark who may in the future, NJCU was close at one point in mid 2000s, Ramapo and WPU unlikely to ever reach)... 5 schools in the past 20 years to make it to the final is impressive, MSU could be a 6th...
I remember Williams and all their Jamaicans dominated Rowan in 2000 but a horrible GK'ing mistake off a corner kick got Rowan the win and the title...
In 2002, Williams defeated defending champion Richard Stockton up at Keene St 4-1. It was one of the more dominating games I have seen in the NCAA's...Then of course like Williams always did in their glory years with all the Jamaicans they then lost to a decent but much weaker side Arcadia in PK's...Arcadia literally sat 10 deep all game aand had no intention of coming out of its shell..
Arcadia had a great triple threat attack back then (a few Philly guys that stayed local), but in terms of talent as a whole... no where near the recruiting base that Williams had.
Not many Saturday Night games this week-end and usually I go out on Saturday night but not this week-end...I am begging / hoping that 7:30pm Rutgers Newark / Rutgers Camden game is getting a live stream
Yeah that 2002 Williams team went hard on Stockton on a snow covered field. Khari Stephenson had 3 goals for Williams then went and I think still is in the MLS. Stockton had a younger team that year after loosing a large group of seniors after the 01 National Championship season. Has anyone seen both Kean and Stockton this year? What does the matchup look like for this weekend? How about Newark and Camden, any predictions there?
Quote from: Ji Sung Park the Bus on October 23, 2015, 03:38:25 PM
Yeah that 2002 Williams team went hard on Stockton on a snow covered field. Khari Stephenson had 3 goals for Williams then went and I think still is in the MLS. Stockton had a younger team that year after loosing a large group of seniors after the 01 National Championship season. Has anyone seen both Kean and Stockton this year? What does the matchup look like for this weekend? How about Newark and Camden, any predictions there?
Yes Khari Stephenson has managed to hang on in MLS as he must be 34 by now. He has played for San Jose, KC and Real Salt Lake...When he was younger he had numerous caps for the Jamaican National team...If I had to guess this will be his last season in MLS as this year San Jose loaned him to minor league outfit the San Antonio Scorpions....Still a great career and great kid. To this day I have no idea how Russo stole him and Alex Blake away from the Ivies. I mean those two would have dominated the Ivies. At the end of the day though sometimes Jamaicans do not always "show up" and they never got to the Final 4 with all those great teams with great talent. A ton of Elite 8 Losses and so on and so forth.
Speaking of Jamaicans, there is a center back at Stockton, Cleavon McPhearson, he is another Jamaican at the D3 level that can possibly playing at the next level next year!
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 23, 2015, 03:13:09 PM
Not many Saturday Night games this week-end and usually I go out on Saturday night but not this week-end...I am begging / hoping that 7:30pm Rutgers Newark / Rutgers Camden game is getting a live stream
Rutgers Newark has an excellent video feed.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=y6ofn2ZMvvU&feature=youtu.be
Newark highlights vs Stevens video quality = Great
Music selection = ehhh not good
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 24, 2015, 03:54:28 AM
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 23, 2015, 03:13:09 PM
Not many Saturday Night games this week-end and usually I go out on Saturday night but not this week-end...I am begging / hoping that 7:30pm Rutgers Newark / Rutgers Camden game is getting a live stream
Rutgers Newark has an excellent video feed.
Excellent I will be def tuning in at 7:30pm
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 24, 2015, 03:59:12 AM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=y6ofn2ZMvvU&feature=youtu.be
Newark highlights vs Stevens video quality = Great
Music selection = ehhh not good
Video quality was EXCELLENT....Replays and everything...RUN looks very dangerous especially on set pieces. GK made a nice PK save however on the replay you could tell the Stevens kicker hips gave away where he was headed...Still a great win for RUN over a Stevens team that better win the Empire 8 IMO...RUN looks very fast on that carpet...Should be a good game tonight between Rutgers Newark and Rutgers Camden. RUN still playing for possible Pool C and RUC I think playing to get into NJAC playoffs or have they qualified?
Camden Must get a win in last two games to qualify... Newark would miss out if they fall to 4-4-1. TCNJ can steal the 6th seed.
Camden last game vs Stockton
Newark at MSU
TCNJ at Rowan
TCNJ up 4-2 on William P. at the 70 minute mark..If this score holds then they would be tied with RUC for that 6th spot in NJAC...NOt sure how they do the tiebreakers but TCNY beat RUC 1-0 earlier this season. This makes for just a BATTLE tonight between RUC and RUN..Is it fair to assume the ref will lose control? Cards will be flying? lots of goals? hard tackles and fouls? Just your regular Jersey type game....Lastguy how do you predict thus game will be played? How will RUC come out
It's only a matter of time before Camden starts finishing opportunities. I think this one will be Camden keeping shape and controlling the pace. If they fall behind, they will lose... Must defend restarts better. 3-1 Camden with their back against the wall.
#4 Salisbury draws vs Frostburg St and #5 Kean loses.
A Rutgers-Newark loss will really shuffle the regional rankings.
MSU, Stockton, Rowan will remain top 3
Chippy game, and like that... Rutgers-Newark is in some trouble. With a TCNJ win over Rowan, Newark cannot lose or their season will be over...
Teams that could crack into the NCAA Rankings:
Emory 8-4-2 .576 last ranking (D vs CMU and W vs B-S)
Frostburg St 10-4-2 .553 and should bump up with Salisbury draw
Randolph 9-3-3 .558 last ranking should go down to about .540ish
Rutgers-Camden 9-7-1 .589 last ranking and should improve with Swat L and Newark W
York 9-6-2 .575 last ranking and should drop with two easy Ws
CNU to drop out, Kean to drop to 7-8 with an 0-2 week vs Rowan and Stockton...
Rutgers-Newark with a big win over Stevens Tech and loss to Camden should see them drop to 5 or 6.
Week 2 Predictions
1. Montclair St
2. Stockton
3. Rowan
4. Salisbury (don't see them dropping with Kean losing to #2 Stockton and #3 Rowan
5. Rutgers-Newark (benefit from Kean's 2 losses. Win over #2 Stevens is a big result), Stronger SOS but LOST to KEAN.
6. Kean (won't be penalized too much for dropping to #2 Stockton and #3 Rowan this week)
7. TCNJ (won't move but SOS will decrease with Ws over NJCU and WPU
8. Rutgers-Camden (win over Rowan and Newark; losses to Salisbury, Kean and TCNJ, Draw vs CNU)
9. Emory/CNU/Frostburg St/York/Randolph
Huge week for W&L. Wednesday weather permitting they are at Randolph and Saturday they host Roanoke as final jockeying begins for the ODAC tournament. W&L's only conference blemish so far is the tie at Lynchburg, so these games could make a huge difference. Both opponents have easier games with Shenandoah/H-SC on the docket, but also more blemishes, as Randolph has 3 ties and Roanoke is 6-2-1 in conference. Staying home for the ODAC tournament would be a big boost to W&L's AQ hopes and I believe not losing to Randolph will ensure the Generals the regular season crown.
Anyone with insights into how York (PA) turned their season around from a 2-6-1 start to now stand at 9-6-2 and in first place in the CAC? Their streak of 4 losses in a row earlier in the season were against good teams....Hopkins, Misericordia, Messiah, Salisbury. They had losses even earlier in the season to Gettysburg and Lycoming. All of the Spartan losses were by 1 goal, except for a 2-0 loss to Salisbury. York is 7-0-1 since the Salisbury game.
Quote from: NCAC New England on October 27, 2015, 09:43:32 PM
Anyone with insights into how York (PA) turned their season around from a 2-6-1 start to now stand at 9-6-2 and in first place in the CAC? Their streak of 4 losses in a row earlier in the season were against good teams....Hopkins, Misericordia, Messiah, Salisbury. They had losses even earlier in the season to Gettysburg and Lycoming. All of the Spartan losses were by 1 goal, except for a 2-0 loss to Salisbury. York is 7-0-1 since the Salisbury game.
New coach who had to get things figured out. Also a very tough stretch of games for any team and came up short more times than they hoped for. I haven't seen them play but from what I have heard they were solid from the start but just couldn't close the deal to win a game. Now they are closing out games. Impressive recovery for the Spartans.
If CNU collapses vs Marymount, failing to make the CAC playoffs, I cannot see them making NCAA tournament
Rutgers-Newark has MSU then Kean or Rowan on the road (if TCNJ doesn't beat Rowan)
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 27, 2015, 11:26:18 PM
If CNU collapses vs Marymount, failing to make the CAC playoffs, I cannot see them making NCAA tournament
Rutgers-Newark has MSU then Kean or Rowan on the road (if TCNJ doesn't beat Rowan)
There is no way CNU will make the NCAA tournament without making CAC playoffs. They are already #8 in the region with only 1 loss. No chance if they miss out on playoffs and even then they need to go deep, probably to the CAC final, to have a shot at NCAA's.
W&L up 2-1 on Randolph. Few minutes to go. Randolph down a man and committing fouls by the dozen. 23 and counting.
3-1 final. Big win at Randolph should sew up home field for W&L throughout the ODAC tourney.
This region is a mess! :o
1. MSU
2. Stockton (loss to Camden, but don't see them dropping)
3. Rowan
4. Salisbury
5. Emory (draw vs CMU, good loss to Brandeis)
6. Rutgers-Camden. Quietly 4-4 vs ranked if Newark stays) Kean could drop off to make 4-3
7. Kean 0-4 skid
8. Rutgers-Newark 0-3 skid
Probably way off, but Camden 3-0 vs 3 ranked teams last two weeks and others are dropping like flies... An ODAC school should be represented, so I'll look more into it after Sundays action concludes.
Might be time for W&L to get a little love. Not easy to get through the ODAC unbeaten.
Yes, I agree either W&L or Randolph
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 31, 2015, 08:57:07 PM
Yes, I agree either W&L or Randolph
W&L just smacked Randolph at Randolph. Hard to ignore the 3-1 h2h and W&L's undefeated conference season. Tournament time for the AQ marble.
I'm assuming Rutgers-Camden will be ranked...
Randolph will be 1-2 RvR with similar SOS to W&L. 1-3 if CNU stays
W&L will be 0-2 RvR.
I'd give the nod to W&L, but NCAA formula might suggest Randolph.
Yeah that formula is good at redeciding things already decided on the field. Doesn't matter much. It is about the AQ for both. Probably matters more to Messiah than W&L.
Well drop Emory fromy the rankings with a loss vs NYU
So this is my guess for the third installment of NCAA Rankings
MSU
Stockton
Rowan
Salisbury
Rutgers-Camden
Rutgers-Newark
Mary Washington
W&L
---------------------
Emory. Bad loss vs NYU today, but could see them as high as 7th
Kean
TCNJ
Randolph
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 01, 2015, 08:53:49 PM
So this is my guess for the third installment of NCAA Rankings
MSU
Stockton
Rowan
Salisbury
Rutgers-Camden
Rutgers-Newark
Mary Washington
W&L
---------------------
Emory. Bad loss vs NYU today, but could see them as high as 7th
Kean
TCNJ
Randolph
I don't think Mary Washington jumps into the top 8. Here are my predictions:
1. MSU
2. Stockton
3. Rowan
4. Salisbury
5. Rutgers-Camden
6. W&L
7. Rutgers-Newark
8. Kean
I think you will only see the top 4 come out of this region for at-large(if they don't win conference AQ) unless some crazy stuff happens in NJAC playoffs.
I agree with your assessment on at-large selections. The top 4 seem to be locked in with, war of attrition going on for the bottom half of the rankings.
Teams with the highest SOS (in order guess) that probably earning rankings vs teams with better win %; Emory, TCNJ, Rutgers-Camden, Centre, Rutgers-Newark
I believe the NJAC is a three bid league, so it comes down to Camden or Rowan making the final.
CAC will only be a one bid league. If MW beats Salisbury in the semi, definitely on the bubble.
UAA likely to get 3 teams, and Emory loss to NYU is a killer.
ODAC likely a one bid league as well.
W&L out shoots Eastern Mennonite University 35-3 but only scores 2 in opening the ODAC playoffs with a shutout. 15 W&L shots on goal and the EMU keeper made some killer saves to keep them in the game, but the whole thing was basically played in EMU's half. W&L awaits the winner of Lynchburg/Va Wes.
NJAC All Conference Team and Awards
http://www.njacsports.com/sports/2015/10/30/MSO_1030150249.aspx?id=4784&
New Regional Rankings. Welcome to the Rankings W&L. Messiah thanks you if you stay...
1. Montclair St. 17-2-0 17-2-0
2. Rowan 15-4-0 16-4-0
3. Stockton 14-4-1 14-4-1
4. Rutgers-Camden 12-7-1 12-7-1
5. Rutgers-Newark 13-7-1 13-7-1
6. Christopher Newport 11-2-6 11-2-6
7. Kean 14-6-0 14-6-0
8. Washington and Lee 12-3-2 12-3-2
Good stuff!
MSU (correct)
Stockton
Rowan (are they safe in a Pool C bid with a loss to MSU now that they are #2 and playing on ROAD)
Salisbury (way off)
Rutgers-Camden (one off)
Rutgers-Newark (one off)
Mary Washington (surprised CNU is slotted here instead of MW who beat and tied them)
W&L (correct)
---------------------
Emory. Bad loss vs NYU today, but could see them as high as 7th
Kean (three off)
TCNJ
Randolph
My guess is that Camden has the strongest SOS or atleast top 3 to be slotted at 4th.
MSU, Rowan, Winner of Stockton/Camden will represent the NJAC...
Doesn't matter if Washington and Lee stays ranked or not on Sunday in the final unpublished rankings. The records versus ranked teams for those final unpublished rankings are based on who was ranked today in the third published rankings. Messiah has their one win versus ranked. End of. Still likely wouldn't be enough, especially with JHU moving ahead of them this week, but it gives them a lot more of a chance than they would have had without it.
1. Montclair St. 18-2-0 18-2-0 WIN OVER ROWAN
2. Rowan 15-5-0 16-5-0 LOSS TO MSU
3. Stockton 14-5-1 14-5-1 LOSS TO CAMDEN
4. Rutgers-Camden 13-7-1 13-7-1 WIN OVER STOCKTON
5. Rutgers-Newark 13-7-1 13-7-1 IDLE
6. Christopher Newport 11-2-6 11-2-6 IDLE
7. Kean 14-6-0 14-6-0 IDLE
8. Washington and Lee 13-3-2 13-3-2 IDLE
Rutgers-Camden should atleast jump to #3 in region.
St. Mary's, Salisbury, CNU from the CAC... With Salisbury not ranked and CNU slotted at 6th, I believe we are looking at a one bid league
ODAC with W&L slotted at 8th, the ODAC also looks to be a one bid league.
CAC
St. Mary's at Salisbury 11/7 2:00 PM
ODAC
W&L vs WVU 11/7 11:00 AM
Roanoke vs Randolph 11/7 2:00 PM (@ W&L)
NJAC
Rutgers-Camden @ MSU 11/7 6:00 PM (MSU webpage only shows LIVE STATS. Here's to hoping for a live stream)
SAA
#8 Sewanee vs. #5 Rhodes 11/6 6:00 pm
#6 Centre at #2 Millsaps 11/6 8:30 pm
Final - (at #2 Millsaps)
Semifinal winners, TBA 11/8
USAC
#4 N.C. Wesleyan at #1 Greensboro 11/6 2:30 pm
#3 Maryville (Tenn.) vs. #2 Methodist, 11/6 11:30 pm
Final - (at #1 Greensboro)
Semifinal winners, TBA 11/8
Updated USA South Tournament information:
Semifinals - Friday, November 6 (played at Greensboro College)
#4 N.C. Wesleyan vs. #1 Greensboro - 11:30am
#3 Maryville vs. #2 Methodist - 2:30pm
Final - Saturday, November 7 (played at Greensboro College)
Semifinal Winners - 2:00pm
601 Centre
597 Rutgers-Camden
581 MSU
579 Rutgers-Newark
578 Emory
578 Rowan
578 William Peace
573 TCNJ
571 Stockton
561 Ramapo
560 NJCU
547 York (PA)
541 CNU
536 Kean
535 Frostburg St
535 Salisbury
532 Mary Washington
529 W&L
526 Eastern Mennonite
522 Berry
520 Randolph
520 Southern Virginia
513 VWU
513 Wesley
512 Lynchburg
511 St. Mary's (MD)
508 Piedmont
506 Marymount (VA)
505 Sewanee
499 Rhodes
498 Oglethorpe
497 Methodist
494 Covenant
494 Roanoke
491 Guilford
489 NCWC
486 Shenandoah
485 Bridgewater (VA)
484 Randolph-Macon
473 Birmingham-Southern
473 Emory & Henry
472 Millsaps
470 Hendrix
460 Huntingdon
459 Averett
453 Greensboro
448 Hampden-Sydney
442 Maryville (TN)
438 LaGrange
436 William Paterson
435 Ferrum
423 PSU-Harrisburg
I just want to go on record as saying I hate how the ODAC runs the conference tournament. Game tuesday, game saturday, final sunday. This is the first time all season teams will play back to back games and it will be for the conference title. You set the semi on Tuesday! Go Friday night and Sunday. Sure it means one team might have an extra night on the road, but the ODAC is pretty compact. You could do Thursday and Sunday and just send everyone home. Annoys the crud out of me they drop this schedule freak at the end of the tournament and have for quite some time.
Not to mention 3 games in 6 days will take a toll on the AQ. The team will have to take Monday off and go light practice T,W,Th and travel Friday to play Sat. Not to mention 3 games in 6 days is a great recipe for injuries to pop up at the most inconvenient time.
Predictions:
CAC: St. Mary's 1, Salisbury 1. St. Mary's win PKs
ODAC: W&L 2, Randolph 0.
NJAC: MSU 2, Rutgers-Camden 1.
SAA: Millsaps 2, Rhodes 1.
USAC: Greensboro 1, Methodist 0.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 06, 2015, 04:56:00 PM
Predictions:
CAC: St. Mary's 1, Salisbury 1. St. Mary's win PKs
ODAC: W&L 2, Randolph 0.
NJAC: MSU 2, Rutgers-Camden 1.
SAA: Millsaps 2, Rhodes 1.
USAC: Greensboro 1, Methodist 0.
Nothing against the other ODAC teams but really pulling for W&L since looks like the sentiment is no Pool C for the Generals. They have had a NCAA-worthy season, and those don't come around all the time. Feel the same way for the Endicotts and Concordia (Wis) type teams out there who can see their impeccable campaigns blow up in smoke. Greensboro has quietly had a very nice season as well.
W&L beats VA Wes 4-2. D3fense playing well. Allowed only 3 SOG but somehow 2 snuck through. Once again W&L dominated the play. The Generals await the winner of Randolph and Roanoke. So far the ODAC chalk has held serve.
W&L blowing up Randolph midway through the second half 4-0. Randolph carrying heavy legs from yesterday's 2 OT semi.
W&L wins the ODAC 5-2. Definitely lost focus at the end and let Randolph have 2 before slamming the door. Looking forward to where W&L matches up. They could make a bit of noise in the tournament if the defense gets back to its stingy ways. The offense seems to be firing pretty well.
Amazing free kick for Greensboro College vs Maryville College
https://youtu.be/CEviSgEgWxs?t=33s
A glance at the South Atlantic Region over the last 5 years...
NCAA
Reg. Ranked.............Conf. Champ.............Conf. Finalist........ Total NCAA Tournament Wins
MSU......................15........................1..............................2.................................11 (Three Elite 8, One Final 4)
SALISBURY............12........................1..............................2...................................1
RUN......................11........................0..............................1...................................1
CNU......................10........................2..............................0...................................3 (Elite 8)
RUC......................10........................4..............................1...................................9 (Two Elite 8, One Final 4, One NCAA Finalist)
EMORY....................8........................1*............................0...................................1
YORK......................6........................3..............................0...................................4 (Two Sweet 16)
OGLETHORPE...........4........................1..............................0...................................0
TCNJ.......................4........................0..............................0...................................0
GREENSBORO..........0........................1..............................2...................................0
RANDOLPH ...........0........................1..............................2...................................2 (Sweet 16)
CENTRE..................3........................0..............................2...................................1
W&L.......................1........................1..............................0...................................1
BERRY....................0........................2..............................0...................................1
KEAN 3 0 0
NCWC 3 0 1
ROANOKE 3 1 1
ROWAN 3 0 1
STOCKTON 3 0 0
WPU 3 0 0
MWU 2 0 1
METHODIST 0 2 1
VWU 0 1 1
LYNCHBURG 0 1 1
MILLSAPS 0 1 0
SEWANEE 0 0 1
ST. MARY (MD) 0 0 1
PSU-H'BURGG 0 0 1
MARYVILLE 0 0 1
BIRM-SOUTH 0 0 1
NOTE: * tied for first with CMU, Wash, and Brandeis. Did not receive AQ.
SAA formed in 2012
CNU left the USAS for CAC in 2013
MSU has been regionally ranked by NCAA every release since 2011.
Lynchburg has not won an NCAA tournament game since reaching the final in 2010
Rowan reached the Sweet 16 in 2001 after reaching the title game in 2000. First round win in 2003. Zero NCAA tournament wins since then
Stockton has four tournament wins since winning the title in 2001. (Elite 8 in 2004); (Round of 32 in 2008).
Greensboro reached the title in 1998. Has 10 NCAA tournament wins since then. (Sweet 16 in '99). (Elite 8 in '04)
Given the data, I'd rank the programs over the last 5 years as follows:
1) Rutgers-Camden/MSU
2) MSU/Rutgers-Camden
3) York
4) CNU
5) Randolph
6) Salisbury
7) Emory
8) Rutgers-Newark
9) Berry
10) Methodist/Gboro/Noke
----------------------
Watch list: W&L, MSU
Trending Up: W&L, Stockton, Rowan, Kean, Randolph
Trending Down: York, TCNJ, Rutgers-Newark, Lynchburg, NCWC
Up or down: Salisbury, Emory, CNU, Rutgers-Camden? Not sure which direction these programs will go after losing some key pieces, and a coach (Salisbury).
I was bored one day and weighed the South Atlantic teams over the last 5 years using the following categories; NCAA Regional Ranking (1 pt), Conference Champion (3 pts), Conference Finalist (1 pt), Round of 32 (1 pt), Sweet 16 (2 pts), Elite 8 (4 pts), Final 4 (8 pts), Finalist (16 pts), National Champion (32 pts):
RUC 63pts (ranked 10x in NCAA Regional release) 4 NJAC titles, 1 Finalist, 2 Elite 8, 1 Final Four, 1 Finalist
MSU 50pts (ranked 15x in NCAA Regional release) 1 NJAC title, 2 Finalist, 3 Elite 8, 1 Final Four
CNU 23pts (ranked 10x in NCAA Regional release) 2 Conf titles, 0 Finalist, 1 Sweet 16, 1 Elite 8
YORK 21pts (ranked 6x in NCAA Regional release) 3 CAC titles, 0 Finalist, 2 Sweet 16
SALISBURY 18pts (ranked 12x in NCAA Regional release) 1 CAC title, 2 Finalists; 1 NCAA tournament win in 5 years, but have been ranked 12 times regionally!
EMORY 14pts (ranked 8x in NCAA Regional release) 1 UAA title, 2 Finalists; 1 Round of 32
RUN 13pts (ranked 11x in NCAA Regional release) 0 NJAC titles, 1 Finalist; 1 Round of 32
RANDOLPH 8pts (ranked 0x in NCAA Regional release) 1 ODAC title, 2 Finalist; 1 Sweet 16
BERRY 7pts (ranked 0x in NCAA Regional release) 2 SAA titles, 0 Finalist; 1 Round of 32
METHODIST 7pts (ranked 0x in NCAA Regional release) 2 USAC titles, 1 Finalist; 0 NCAA wins
OGLETHORPE 7pts (ranked 4x in NCAA Regional release) 1 title, 0 Finalist; 0 NCAA wins
Using scoring system of 1-2-4-6-8-12;
RUC - 53 pts
MSU - 48 pts
Using scoring system of 1-2-3-4-5-6;
RUC - 46 pts
MSU - 43 pts
NOTES:
Salisbury 12 regional rankings, but less conference titles than Berry and Methodist with no H2H results...
SAA formed in 2012
CNU left the USAS for CAC in 2013
Lynchburg has not won an NCAA tournament game since reaching the final in 2010
Rowan reached the Sweet 16 in 2001 after reaching the title game in 2000. First round win in 2003. Zero NCAA tournament wins since then
Stockton has four tournament wins since winning the title in 2001. (Elite 8 in 2004); (Round of 32 in 2008).
Greensboro reached the title in 1998. Has 10 NCAA tournament wins since then. (Sweet 16 in '99). (Elite 8 in '04)
Lastguy - not sure why "12 regional rankings" for Salisbury is a surprise. What is your point? Salisbury has underperformed in the post-season? They are consistently over-rated in the rankings? The rankings are flawed (shocking)? RUN has been ranked 11 times also with 1 NCAA win but 0 conference titles in 5 years. That inconsistency seems even more worthy of an exclamation point! Wouldn't you agree?
Look at Salisbury's regular season performance – the information available when regional rankings are published. Over the last 5 years, they won the CAC regular season 4 times and were second once. 31-3-6 cumulative record. Over that same time, the Gulls had a .500 record against "quality" non-conference opponents (i.e. those you think might be regionally ranked when you are making up your schedule: RUC, Catholic, Lynchburg, Stockton, F&M, Brockport, Roanoke). Very few bad losses (although a couple this year). That looks like the resume of a regionally ranked team - much of the time - to me.
If you are bored, I suggest you go back and tally all your predictions this year that involved Salisbury. How'd you do?
I would have been wrong 6x this year on Salisbury predictions. With that schedule, I'd have said 18-0-1 or 17-1-1 heading into NCAA tournament... I thought they were going to beat Eastern. The only blemish on the schedule, IMO would have been a draw or loss vs CNU.
I see your point with RUN... It just proves how hard it is to win a conference championship and NCAA tournament games.
I'm assuming the assistant coach will take over for Salisbury? Will be interesting to see what style they are going to play... I believe that Salisbury is going to beat Camden again next season on 9/3...
Roanoke College's Pre-Season Trip to Spain:
First Update: http://www.roanokemaroons.com/sports/msoc/2016-17/releases/20160807qg87jp (http://www.roanokemaroons.com/sports/msoc/2016-17/releases/20160807qg87jp)