2015 South Atlantic Region

lastguyoffthebench · September 26, 2015, 06:02:52 PM

Millsaps defeats Birmingham Southern 3-1.

lastguyoffthebench · September 26, 2015, 06:11:55 PM

Mary Washington loses at Wesley.

Would expect Salisbury and Rutgers-Newark to fall a few spots, Rowan and Camden to bump up. Kean and Lynchburg to close it out with Birmingham Southern and TCNJ dropping out.

With Rowan putting up a TD on Newark, this early NJAC tilt vs Rutgers-Camden will be a better game than I expected. Camden lost at Rowan 1-0 last season in 89th min...

lastguyoffthebench · September 27, 2015, 11:21:51 AM

Poll 3 Prediction

1. CNU
2. MSU
3. Rowan
4. Rutgers-Camden
5. Salisbury
6. Kean
7. Birmingham Southern
8. Maryville
9. Stockton
10. Lynchburg

lastguyoffthebench · September 28, 2015, 10:14:56 AM

Oglethorpe sitting quietly under the radar at 6-2-1. Losses to Denison 0-1, Wheaton (IL) 1-2, and draw vs Emory 0-0.

Millsaps lost to Emory yesterday, sitting at 6-2

lastguyoffthebench · October 02, 2015, 10:47:58 AM

Poll 3 (with updated results as of 10/1)

1 Christopher Newport University 8-0-2 @ York (IDLE)
2 Montclair State University 11-1-0 @ TCNJ (DH Brooklyn 8-0, DH WPU 2-1 OT)
3 Salisbury University 6-3-0 @ Southern Virginia (LH Catholic 0-1)
4 Rutgers University-Camden 8-1-1 @ Kean (DH Rowan 1-0)
5 Rowan University 8-2-0 @ Ramapo (LA Rutgers-Camden 0-1)
6 Maryville College 8-1-1 @ W&J (DA William Peace 7-1, DH LaGrange 9-0)
7 Rutgers University-Newark 9-3-0 vs NJCU (DH Ramapo 1-0)
8 Kean University 10-1-0 vs Rutgers-Camden (DH NJCU 5-0)
9 Lynchburg College 5-1-2 @ Bridgewater (VA) (DA Hampden-Sydney 2-0)
10 Stockton University 8-3-0 @ WPU (DH TCNJ 3-1)

Also receiving votes:
The College of New Jersey (7), 6-3-2 vs MSU (LA Stockton 1-3)
Birmingham-Southern College (6), 8-1-1 vs Rhodes (IDLE)
Emory University (5), 5-3-1 @ Chicago (DA Millsaps 2-0)
University Of Mary Washington (2), 7-3-0 vs Marymount (IDLE)
Centre College (2) 5-4-1 @ Berry (DH Wabash 4-3)

8 of the top 10 in the region head on the road this weekend. Weather forecast could pose a problem... Expect there to be lots of movement within the NSCAA rankings.
How far will Salisbury drop after another blemish? Will Emory crack the top 10 with a win at Chicago? Can TCNJ hold on vs MSU?

MASSEY RATINGS AS OF 10/1/15 (SOS) (SSF = SOS including future games)

8 MSU (123) (48)
16 Rowan (14) (24)
19 Rutgers-Camden (68) (25)
22 CNU (115) (109)
31 Kean (268) (119)
35 Stockton (28) (34)
54 Rutgers-Newark (90) (50)
69 Lynchburg (172) (205)
82 TCNJ (78) (56)
88 Mary Washington (94) (95)
----------------------------------------
92 Salisbury (51) (91)
95 Centre (38) (86)
97 Maryville (294) (278)
101 Frostburg St (248) (175)
120 Millsaps (240) (214)
122 Emory (182) (65)

Mid-Atlantic Fan · October 02, 2015, 10:52:58 AM

Salisbury is way too high at #3...I am assuming this was the last poll but with now updated records? I think they fall to #9. They are wayyyyyyy overrated. I watched the Salisbury vs Susquehanna game earlier this year and was not impressed at all. They ended up winning 2-1. Once again, not impressed at all.

Mid-Atlantic Fan · October 02, 2015, 10:56:24 AM

This would be my rankings before heading into the weekend slate of games:

1 Christopher Newport University 8-0-2
2 Montclair State University 11-1-0
3 Rutgers University-Camden 8-1-1
4 Rowan University 8-2-0
5 Kean University 10-1-0
6 Maryville College 8-1-1
7 Rutgers University-Newark 9-3-0
8 Stockton University 8-3
9 Lynchburg College 5-1-2
10 Salisbury University 6-3-0

lastguyoffthebench · October 02, 2015, 11:16:26 AM

My Rankings heading into this weekend:

1 MSU
2 RUC
3 CNU
4 Rowan
5 Stockton
6 Kean
7 RUN
8 Salisbury
9 Maryville
10 Lynchburg

As usual, I'll do the projections on Sunday night/Monday morning but I'm thinking it will look like this

1. CNU
2. MSU
3. RUC
4. Rowan
5. Maryville
6. Rutgers-Newark (2-0 week still won't jump a Maryville 3-0 week)
7. Kean (depending on Camden result. Don't think a close loss would see them fall). Will voters value 3 loss Salisbury ahead of a 2 loss Kean, bc SAL win over RUC)
8. Lynchburg
9. Stockton (hard for them to move up if teams ahead keep winning)
10. Salisbury

lastguyoffthebench · October 02, 2015, 04:02:47 PM

NCAA Regional Rankings Projections Eyeball Test:

Primary Criteria (not listed in priority order)
•Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents
•Division III head-to-head competition
•Results versus common Division III opponents
•Results versus ranked Division III teams
•Division III Strength-of-schedule

Secondary Criteria (not listed in priority order)
•Non-Division III win-loss percentage
•Results versus common non-Division III opponents
•Non-Division III Strength-of-schedule

Team 1 OWP .468 RvR 0-0-2 RR 8-0-2 (.900) 3 CNU
Team 2 OWP .545 RvR 1-0-0 RR 12-1-0 (.923) 1 MSU
Team 3 OWP .578 RvR 1-1-1 RR 8-1-1 (.850) 2 Rutgers-Camden
Team 4 OWP .569 RvR 1-2-0 RR 8-2-0 (.800) 4 Rowan
Team 5 OWP .581 RvR 1-2-0 RR 7-3-0 (.700) 5 Stockton
Team 6 OWP .385 RvR 1-0-0 RR 10-1-0 (.909)
Team 7 OWP .468 RvR 2-2-0 RR 9-3-0 (.750) 7 Rutgers-Newark
Team 8 OWP .511 RvR 2-1-0 RR 6-3-0 (.666) 6 Salisbury
Team 9 OWP .475 RvR 0-0-1 RR 5-1-2 (.750)
Team10 OWP .396 RvR 0-1-0 RR 7-1-1 (.833)
Team11 OWP .639 RvR 1-2-0 RR 6-3-2 (.636) 8 TCNJ
Team12 OWP .524 RvR 0-1-0 RR 7-3-0 (.700)

Not wasting my time on the OOWP, so this data is probably worthless...

Simply just filtered highest to lowest; OWP, Win %, RvR win %

1. MSU (OWP 4 + Win % 1 + RvR win % 1) = 6
2. Rutgers-Camden (OWP 2 + Win % 3 + RvR win % 3t) = 8
3. Rowan (OWP 3 + Win % 4 + RvR win % 5t) = 12
4. Stockton (OWP 1 + Win % 6 + RvR win % 5t) = 12
5. CNU (OWP 6t + Win % 2 + RvR win % 5t) = 13
6. Salisbury (OWP 5 + Win % 7 + RvR win % 2) = 14
7. Rutgers-Newark (OWP 6t + Win % 5 + RvR win % 3t) =14
---------------------------
8. TCNJ

Mr.Right · October 02, 2015, 04:17:42 PM

Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 02, 2015, 04:02:47 PM
NCAA Regional Rankings Projections Eyeball Test:

Primary Criteria (not listed in priority order)
•Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents
•Division III head-to-head competition
•Results versus common Division III opponents
•Results versus ranked Division III teams
•Division III Strength-of-schedule

Secondary Criteria (not listed in priority order)
•Non-Division III win-loss percentage
•Results versus common non-Division III opponents
•Non-Division III Strength-of-schedule

Team 1 OWP .468 RvR 0-0-2 RR 8-0-2 (.900) 3 CNU
Team 2 OWP .545 RvR 1-0-0 RR 12-1-0 (.923) 1 MSU
Team 3 OWP .578 RvR 1-1-1 RR 8-1-1 (.850) 2 Rutgers-Camden
Team 4 OWP .569 RvR 1-2-0 RR 8-2-0 (.800) 4 Rowan
Team 5 OWP .581 RvR 1-2-0 RR 7-3-0 (.700) 5 Stockton
Team 6 OWP .385 RvR 1-0-0 RR 10-1-0 (.909)
Team 7 OWP .468 RvR 2-3-0 RR 9-3-0 (.750) 7 Rutgers-Newark
Team 8 OWP .511 RvR 2-1-0 RR 6-3-0 (.666) 6 Salisbury
Team 9 OWP .475 RvR 0-0-1 RR 5-1-2 (.750)
Team10 OWP .396 RvR 0-1-0 RR 7-1-1 (.833)
Team11 OWP .639 RvR 1-2-0 RR 6-3-2 (.636) 8 TCNJ
Team12 OWP .524 RvR 0-1-0 RR 7-3-0 (.700)

Not wasting my time on the OOWP, so this data is probably worthless...

1. MSU
2. Rutgers-Camden
3. CNU
4. Rowan
5. Stockton
6. Salisbury
7. Rutgers-Newark
---------------------------
8. TCNJ

Where are you getting Team 1-12 information? Is this from last year? I am utterly confused but I have never been good with #'s. I can guess #'s.

lastguyoffthebench · October 02, 2015, 04:38:33 PM

Teams 1-12 were compilation of Massey Ratings and NSCAA Rankings.

Pulled the OWP from Massey Ratings with a bit of data collection.

Hard to imagine CNU being ranked 5th, but they have an incredibly low SOS and no wins vs ranked (draw vs Rutgers-Camden and draw vs Lynchburg IF they get ranked).

Also, records vs ranked was a total guess, but I'm confident in those selections.

lastguyoffthebench · October 05, 2015, 09:38:21 AM

Poll 3 (with updated results as of 10/5)

1 Christopher Newport University 8-0-3 @ York TA 1-1
2 Montclair State University 11-1-0 @ TCNJ PPD (DH Brooklyn 8-0, DH WPU 2-1 OT)
3 Salisbury University 6-3-0 @ Southern Virginia PPD (LH Catholic 0-1)
4 Rutgers University-Camden 8-2-1 @ Kean LA 2-3 1ot (DH Rowan 1-0)
5 Rowan University 9-2-0 @ Ramapo DA 3-0 (LA Rutgers-Camden 0-1)
6 Maryville College 9-1-1 @ W&J DA 5-0 (DA William Peace 7-1, DH LaGrange 9-0)
7 Rutgers University-Newark 10-3-0 vs NJCU DH 2-0 (DH Ramapo 1-0)
8 Kean University 11-1-0 vs Rutgers-Camden DH 3-2 1ot (DH NJCU 5-0)
9 Lynchburg College 6-1-2 @ Bridgewater (VA) DA 2-0 (DA Hampden-Sydney 2-0)
10 Stockton University 8-3-0 @ WPU PPD (DH TCNJ 3-1)

Also receiving votes:
The College of New Jersey (7), 6-3-2 vs MSU PPD (LA Stockton 1-3)
Birmingham-Southern College (6), 8-1-2 vs Rhodes TH 1-1 (IDLE)
Emory University (5), 6-3-1 @ Chicago DA 1-0 (DA Millsaps 2-0)
University Of Mary Washington (2), 8-3-0 vs Marymount DA 3-0 (IDLE)
Centre College (2) 5-4-1 @ Berry PPD (DH Wabash 4-3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Poll 4 Predictions:

1) MSU
2) CNU
3) Kean
4) Rutgers-Camden
5) Rowan
6) Maryville
7) Rutgers-Newark
8) Lynchburg
9) Stockton
10) Salisbury
--------------------------
11) Emory
12) TCNJ
13) Mary Washington
14) Centre
15) Birmingham-Southern

Mid-Atlantic Fan · October 05, 2015, 11:21:35 AM

Is Kean for real? Don't know much about them.

Mr.Right · October 05, 2015, 12:29:58 PM

I saw them in the 2nd half vs Camden with the wind at their backs and they looked solid to me. 11-1-0 with a tremendously weak out of conference schedule is interesting, but they seem to be playing well in the NJAC so far. If they get to 3 or 4 losses they will be outside the bubble for sure

lastguyoffthebench · October 05, 2015, 12:36:18 PM

Decent target player, others with some speed. Conditions were horrible for the game.

MASSEY RATINGS AS OF 10/5

1. MSU (4)
2. Rowan (11)
3. Kean (24)
4. Rutgers-Camden (30)
5. CNU (34)
6. Stockton (40)
7. Rutgers-Newark (49)
-----------------------------
8. Lynchburg (71)
9. Maryville (77)
10.Mary Washington (79)
-----------------------------
11. TCNJ (83)
12. Salisbury (91)
13. Centre (93)
14. Frostburg St (100)
15. Emory (105)

Can't say I disagree with the computers here. The top 7 are likely to be the NCAA regional ranked with Lynchburg, Salisbury, TCNJ lurking. Emory could make a huge jump with the UAA schedule upcoming.

2015 South Atlantic Region

Mr.Right

Mr.Right